Brexit, for once some facts.

[Woosh]

And I do think the EU really wants a hard Brexit as it stands.

they do and they don't.
They prefer we cancel A50 and they don't really want us in the single market, they prefer we leave on negotiated WTO.
Right from the beginning, the EU's point of view is keep it simple: no cherry picking, UK to cancel A50 or out on WTO.
The deal TM negotiated is as much as she can push, stay in the customs union with good access to the SM, not as good as Norway but as good as Switzerland if she remains PM.
The current deal leaves NI shafted by a negotiated WTO. Ireland will also lose big time in any nogotiated WTO.
The DUP knows that TM is not going to last long. Their interest is actually UK to cancel A50.
There is no good deal to leave on. Ultimately, pay your money take your choice.

 

[Danidl]

He's made plenty in the past year or so. We've chatted about it on here.

As it stands it's accepted we make the best wings in the world. We make more for Boeing than Airbus in actual fact.

I'm not saying he is trying to whip up trouble and add pressure on behalf of the EU but he is trying to whip up trouble and add pressure on behalf of the EU.

He does have a point though. And I do think the EU really wants a hard Brexit as it stands. No country's government could sign what is on the table. It really would be a fatal mistake for years to come.

Now I get it, in your vocabulary, plenty means two. The current one and the one last June. There would have been a few scholarly articles in trade magazines also.
Which part of ...
1. No one in any position of authority or responsibility in the EU27 want a no deal crash out.
2. Everybody in the EU27 (same proviso as above), is prepared to sign off on the Deal.
3. Everybody in the EU27 ditto would prefer a closer union with the UK, but that is deemed offensive by UK delegation.
4. Everybody in the EU27 ditto ,is prepared reluctantly to accept a UK crash out rather than modify #2.
..... Have you difficulty in following?

 

[Woosh]

3. Everybody in the EU27 ditto would prefer a closer union with the UK, but that is deemed offensive by UK delegation.

deemed offensive? that's your interpretation.
our side still does not know what we want but finding closer union expensive? yes but offensive? no.
The main obstacle is we want a seat at the table when you talk trade and security.

 

[tommie]

Everybody in the 27? Everybody??

The Polish minister has already broken cover and stated publicly there needs to be legal change to the Backstop to get this Deal through. Now hot on the heels of that we have this from the Lithuanian President !!


Lithuanian President: No Deal better than delaying Brexit

The President of Lithuania, Dalia Grybauskaite, has insisted that the UK should exit the European Union as quickly as possible and that No Deal would be preferably to a an extension of Article 50 and further delay.

She told Euronews: “The more we will extend any kind of uncertainty the worse it will be for both sides.

“In that case it’s better to finish this sooner even with No Deal, or with any kind of deal, because I know even in worst case scenario we will start immediately to negotiate with UK on special measures, it will take a few months.”

NEW: Cracks in EU on what next for #Brexit
Lithuanian President suggests NO DEAL would be better than the uncertainty of extending Article 50 for a prolonged period of time.
With NO DEAL – EU would immediately start negotiating special measures which might only take few months. pic.twitter.com/iSkoCq3ZCz
— Darren McCaffrey (@DarrenEuronews) January 24, 2019​

Remainers in Westminster won’t like this. An extension of Article 50 would require the unanimous approval of all EU countries…

 

[OxygenJames]

I predicted that fear would drive them to accept Mrs May's deal, it seems impossible, but still the temptation must still be there.
And they are running out of time and under great pressure fro the business sector

From SOME PARTS of the 'business sector'. Mainly the massive companies who have most to gain from staying in the cartel.

 

[OxygenJames]

Everybody in the 27? Everybody??

The Polish minister has already broken cover and stated publicly there needs to be legal change to the Backstop to get this Deal through. Now hot on the heels of that we have this from the Lithuanian President !!


Lithuanian President: No Deal better than delaying Brexit

The President of Lithuania, Dalia Grybauskaite, has insisted that the UK should exit the European Union as quickly as possible and that No Deal would be preferably to a an extension of Article 50 and further delay.

She told Euronews: “The more we will extend any kind of uncertainty the worse it will be for both sides.

“In that case it’s better to finish this sooner even with No Deal, or with any kind of deal, because I know even in worst case scenario we will start immediately to negotiate with UK on special measures, it will take a few months.”

NEW: Cracks in EU on what next for #Brexit​

Lithuanian President suggests NO DEAL would be better than the uncertainty of extending Article 50 for a prolonged period of time.​

With NO DEAL – EU would immediately start negotiating special measures which might only take few months. pic.twitter.com/iSkoCq3ZCz​

— Darren McCaffrey (@DarrenEuronews) January 24, 2019​

Remainers in Westminster won’t like this. An extension of Article 50 would require the unanimous approval of all EU countries…

Yup. Them and Poland are not keeping to the script.

 

[OxygenJames]

I’d have packed my bags and gone years ago if his behaviour at home is anything like it is on here. However, I’m going nowhere.

So long as you don't start beating your wife again.

 

[OxygenJames]

You are right, I dislike it intensely and I am annoyed with myself for being drawn in.

What’s your opinion on the latest Airbus statement? Is it a political manoeuvre to apply pressure on the government to take No Deal off the table or are they deadly serious?

It’s this sort of job loss potential which has pushed me over the halfway line onto the Remain side.

You're thinking WAY too short term.

The real benefit to Brexit and getting out of this failing cartel is way later when the Euro is in its final collapse - the southern Countries (Italy Greece Spain) can no longer stick to their EU imposed lending rules (mind you even France can't stick to them at the moment) - and the whole EU project starts to come crashing down.

Probably around 5-10 years (they've got our £40B to keep them going to at least 3-4 years). THEN you will see the benefits of coming out from a financial perspective.

Remember those Remainers are the very same people who thought us joining the Euro would be a good idea! (Imagine the disaster that would have been!) The very currency that is going to crash and burn once Germany's economy can't bail out France anymore and Italy's debt becomes too much and their whole bond-buying programme does nothing but push up interest rates beyond what the likes of Greece and Spain can afford. Its a ticking time bomb. Has been since its inception. It's just a matter of time.

We're getting out just in time.

Provided this bunch of idiots actually get us out that is.

 

[Fingers]

they do and they don't.
They prefer we cancel A50 and they don't really want us in the single market, they prefer we leave on negotiated WTO.
Right from the beginning, the EU's point of view is keep it simple: no cherry picking, UK to cancel A50 or out on WTO.
The deal TM negotiated is as much as she can push, stay in the customs union with good access to the SM, not as good as Norway but as good as Switzerland if she remains PM.
The current deal leaves NI shafted by a negotiated WTO. Ireland will also lose big time in any nogotiated WTO.
The DUP knows that TM is not going to last long. Their interest is actually UK to cancel A50.
There is no good deal to leave on. Ultimately, pay your money take your choice.

So you think the Yvette Cooper of 9 months kicking the can down the road and hope it all goes away is a runner?

That Mirror article yesterday was interesting and in fact alarming but when you read the previous editions you realise every single one forecasts Armageddon. I'd love an ideal deal but I think if we are going to leave now its just to leave and sort things out as and when.

We are developed nations. We can sort this out.

 

[Fingers]

Now I get it, in your vocabulary, plenty means two. The current one and the one last June. There would have been a few scholarly articles in trade magazines also.
Which part of ...
1. No one in any position of authority or responsibility in the EU27 want a no deal crash out.
2. Everybody in the EU27 (same proviso as above), is prepared to sign off on the Deal.
3. Everybody in the EU27 ditto would prefer a closer union with the UK, but that is deemed offensive by UK delegation.
4. Everybody in the EU27 ditto ,is prepared reluctantly to accept a UK crash out rather than modify #2.
..... Have you difficulty in following?

Calm down Dan, we're just chatting.

I do think the EU will have to give a bit yes. Or there is going to be a continuation of the ructions or WTO deal.

We can cope with that. Not sure other countries will want the hassle.

 

[OxygenJames]

So you think the Yvette Cooper of 9 months kicking the can down the road and hope it all goes away is a runner?

That Mirror article yesterday was interesting and in fact alarming but when you read the previous editions you realise every single one forecasts Armageddon. I'd love an ideal deal but I think if we are going to leave now its just to leave and sort things out as and when.

We are developed nations. We can sort this out.

Right.

 

[wheeler]

We make more for Boeing than Airbus in actual fact.
[I/QUOTE]

Your "actual fact" is untrue.

Facts are cheils that winna ding.

 

[OxygenJames]

On the Airbus press release:

"Asked if the Government put Airbus up to comments this morning she first says no, but then adds Airbus has provided ministers with "lots of information about the potential impacts" and then follows up by admitting Gov DID ask the company to "make clear" cost of no deal Brexit."

In other words - the government put them up to it.

 

[OxygenJames]

There's more:

"The European Union have been caught out on the hated EU backstop trap. Oh dear.

Things have began to unravel, with the EU’s Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier letting the cat out of the bag. He said that when it comes to the Irish border if there’s a No Deal: “We will have to find an operational way of carrying out checks and controls without putting in place a border.”

The Irish government have made clear themselves that: “We will not accept a hard border on this island and therefore we are not planning for one.”

In comments elsewhere Barnier also said: “My team have worked hard to study how controls can be made paperless or decentralised.”

The Telegraph’s Brussels correspondent has since followed up these comments and put them directly to the European Commission’s Chief Spokesman Margaritis Schinas.

James Crisp first asked: “If all of this is possible, why do we need the backstop?”

He then followed up: “If there are ways to avoid a hard border in a No Deal scenario which Mr. Barnier suggested, why do we need the backstop?”

The response from the EU Commission? “You can write whatever you like.” Pathetic."

 

[OxygenJames]

I like this one:

Wetherspoon have now stopped stocking Moet champagne and Italian prosecco replacing them with sparkling wines from Australia and England.

Jagermeister has been replaced by an English version called Strika.

 

[Fingers]

 

[OxygenJames]

There's more:

"The European Union have been caught out on the hated EU backstop trap. Oh dear.

Things have began to unravel, with the EU’s Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier letting the cat out of the bag. He said that when it comes to the Irish border if there’s a No Deal: “We will have to find an operational way of carrying out checks and controls without putting in place a border.”

The Irish government have made clear themselves that: “We will not accept a hard border on this island and therefore we are not planning for one.”

In comments elsewhere Barnier also said: “My team have worked hard to study how controls can be made paperless or decentralised.”

The Telegraph’s Brussels correspondent has since followed up these comments and put them directly to the European Commission’s Chief Spokesman Margaritis Schinas.

James Crisp first asked: “If all of this is possible, why do we need the backstop?”

He then followed up: “If there are ways to avoid a hard border in a No Deal scenario which Mr. Barnier suggested, why do we need the backstop?”

The response from the EU Commission? “You can write whatever you like.” Pathetic."

In other words - the whole 'Backstop' issue has been total boll**ks right from the start.

 

[oldgroaner]

He's made plenty in the past year or so. We've chatted about it on here.

As it stands it's accepted we make the best wings in the world. We make more for Boeing than Airbus in actual fact.

I'm not saying he is trying to whip up trouble and add pressure on behalf of the EU but he is trying to whip up trouble and add pressure on behalf of the EU.

He does have a point though. And I do think the EU really wants a hard Brexit as it stands. No country's government could sign what is on the table. It really would be a fatal mistake for years to come.

Since You are on topic, I'm tempted to ask why the EU would want a hard Brexit when the May deal gives them what they want?

 

[Woosh]

The very currency that is going to crash and burn once Germany's economy can't bail out France anymore and Italy's debt becomes too much and their whole bond-buying programme does nothing but push up interest rates beyond what the likes of Greece and Spain can afford.

it's the opposite, the government bond buying program injects liquidity into the economy, resulting in lower interest than otherwise.
It's when liquidity is in short supply that cash becomes expensive and lending rate goes up.

BTW, the Euro is now a more popular reserve currency than GBP. It's not going away anytime soon.
There is call for fiscal union to help weaker economies in the Eurozone but by and large, the Euro is more stable than the Pound.

 

[oldgroaner]

Everybody in the 27? Everybody??

The Polish minister has already broken cover and stated publicly there needs to be legal change to the Backstop to get this Deal through. Now hot on the heels of that we have this from the Lithuanian President !!


Lithuanian President: No Deal better than delaying Brexit

The President of Lithuania, Dalia Grybauskaite, has insisted that the UK should exit the European Union as quickly as possible and that No Deal would be preferably to a an extension of Article 50 and further delay.

She told Euronews: “The more we will extend any kind of uncertainty the worse it will be for both sides.

“In that case it’s better to finish this sooner even with No Deal, or with any kind of deal, because I know even in worst case scenario we will start immediately to negotiate with UK on special measures, it will take a few months.”

NEW: Cracks in EU on what next for #Brexit​

Lithuanian President suggests NO DEAL would be better than the uncertainty of extending Article 50 for a prolonged period of time.​

With NO DEAL – EU would immediately start negotiating special measures which might only take few months. pic.twitter.com/iSkoCq3ZCz​

— Darren McCaffrey (@DarrenEuronews) January 24, 2019​

Remainers in Westminster won’t like this. An extension of Article 50 would require the unanimous approval of all EU countries…

But in the meantime the EU countries will alter their ordering patterns to the point where any advantage we offer is reduced, surely so by the time the agreement is reached we have lost out?
And a referendum with a Remain resolution would kill the problem at a stroke.