Brexit, for once some facts.

[flecc]

Does anyone know that if we ‘crash out’ on March 29,does all the EU anti dumping duties get cancelled. This is very important for the Chinese to U.K. ebike imports which currently get hit by minimum 37% ADT.
KudosDave

The EU won't be able to impose them in a non member country, so it will probably depend on how quickly the UK government react to the change. I could see plenty of delays in such matters with civil servants carrying on with the existing rules until told not to.

However, I don't think there's the slightest chance we'll crash out, the House of Commons has no stomach for that so I believe there'll be a deal of some sort. If not, there's an outside chance of a new referendum and remaining will be the consequence of that.
.

 

[Danidl]

Who said it was impossible?

The EU will do everything they can to stop us leaving. Everything. My hunch as I’ve said all along is a deal after the March deadline in April.

The deal will mean we stay in but on different terms and terms that are acceptable to us.

But we have to be prepared to leave without deal and operate under WTO riles.

You should read the actual ECJ judgement , before rushing to your own judgement...
The entire document is couched in terms of respecting the sovereignty of any member state,and that includes the UK( Pro tem),and that is why the court ruled that the UK could withdraw their withdrawal notice,so that even in that they would not be perceived as being bullied by other members.
The EU will do everything feasible to assist the UK to stay. But it will not be renegotiating a done deal. If time is requested by the British side , it will be respected,
It may be a typo, but certainly the UK will be very riled if they are forced to deal under WTO rules.

 

[tommie]

The DUP is the political wing of the UVF, UDA and the Red Hand is it not?

LOL!

Afraid not,

political wing of those lot would be PUP (Progressive Unionist Party), and the (UPRG) Ulster Political Research Group respectively .

 

[oldgroaner]

Cartoon in the Telegraph this morning

 

[oldgroaner]

Interesting header in the Express
"
Brexit REVEAL: Hard Brexit could be in the interests of BOTH UK and EU long-term
THERESA MAY’S Brexit deal leaves the British people feeling “betrayed” and a hard Brexit could, in fact, be in the “long-term interests” of both the European Union and the UK, a leading professor has revealed.

"“If there is a hard Brexit, the immediate impact will be severe on both sides – there is no doubt around that. And I think the mistake of Brexiteers was to play down that possibility."

Well now for once I can agree "Sort of" for if we can't have a referendum the sort of Brexit that wakes up the Voting Public and makes them realise that we need to rejoin the EU gets my vote and has been my view for a long time.

 

[oldgroaner]

The absurdity of this Government summed up
"
[B]Mark Elliott[/B]‏ @[B]ProfMarkElliott[/B]
Mark Elliott Retweeted Luciana Berger

Brexit Secretary says Govt "may look to appeal in the Scottish courts" against ECJ judgment on revocability of Article 50. Degree of ignorance this reveals about how EU law works — it's impossible to appeal to national court against ECJ interpretation of EU law — is astonishing

And rather bizarre that the Government appears to want a ruling that it isn't sovereign over the rule of the ECJ? and thus can't revoke article 50 because the EU wont let them?

Shades of the excuses the Government made that the EU prevented them ejecting foreign criminals, bearing this attitude in mind how can anyone trust this Government over anything they promise, such as control of immigration? they never have in the past so why trust them now?

 

[oldgroaner]

Who said it was impossible?

The EU will do everything they can to stop us leaving. Everything. My hunch as I’ve said all along is a deal after the March deadline in April.

The deal will mean we stay in but on different terms and terms that are acceptable to us.

But we have to be prepared to leave without deal and operate under WTO riles.

If you look back through the thread I posted a Video of Boris suggesting the very same thing as this line of yours, we say we are leaving then make a better deal, that will mean we stay in but on different terms and terms that are acceptable to us.
just before the referendum, he saw it all as a scam to get better terms out of the EU
It was a mad idea then and a worse one now! and if we leave under WTO terms, (assuming we can get them,) that will guarantee such an adverse reaction from the Public we will end up clamouring to rejoin the EU under far worse terms that we have now.


The best plan is simply to withdraw Article 50

 

[oldgroaner]

Leave supporters in parliament have maintained we could not reverse article 50, supported by many outside too. Others maintained we could only enter via article 49 on new conditions such as euro acceptance. I've maintained earlier that wasn't true, and now we know we can reverse article 50 and retain all former conditions including our rebate.

My forecast now is very different from yours. I believe May will most likely return from the EU with an important modification to the backstop, giving it a fixed final conclusion. She and the EU will hope that is sufficient to be supported in the House. If that does happen I believe it will be voted for since MPs know how fed up the public are and how much they want the matter concluded.
.

Pretty much my feeling too, as I said earlier the level of fear in the HOC predicates the Bill being passed

 

[Woosh]

My forecast now is very different from yours. I believe May will most likely return from the EU with an important modification to the backstop, giving it a fixed final conclusion. She and the EU will hope that is sufficient to be supported in the House. If that does happen I believe it will be voted for since MPs know how fed up the public are and how much they want the matter concluded.

Even with the EU's help, her deal won't be supported by the DUP because outside the customs union, it will create a small amount of friction for NI's trade with the UK.
Without the DUP's support, she has already lost her meagre majority.
MPs are looking for the next step.

 

[tillson]

My prediction differs again. I think she will return from her meeting with the EU having been given a very clear directive. I believe this will be tattoo of Jacob Reed Mogg’s face on one cheek of her arse and Nigel Farage’s on the other. It’s the only way her situation could become more embarrassing.

 

[oldtom]

Elsewhere on social media, much black humour abounds, particularly since the incompetent PM bottled the vote on her much-hyped 'deal'

As analogies go, I like this one from one cynic:



Tom

 

[flecc]

Even with the EU's help, her deal won't be supported by the DUP because outside the customs union, it will create a small amount of friction for NI's trade with the UK.
Without the DUP's support, she has already lost her meagre majority.
MPs are looking for the next step.

In that case as said, another referendum and we remain in.

Not what the DUP want.
.

 

[oldtom]

This candid opinion of the worst PM ever seems very accurate and I can't find anything to argue about in it:
Theresa May's cowardly move to shift the date of the 'Brexit' vote when it became clear that she was going to lose it (and her job) just proves what a cynical, self-serving, national interest-defying and shockingly incompetent charlatan she is.



Tom

 

[oldtom]

Channel 4's Ciaran Jenkins posted this list of approval ratings:



Tom

 

[oldtom]

The AAV web blogger expressed this view yesterday and highlights the additional pain for ordinary people that will be the nett effect of May's latest, despicable act of cowardice:





Theresa May's cowardly efforts to move the goalposts by delaying the meaningful Brexit vote that she was about to lose are an absolute humiliation for Britain.
We've got a political leader who will cynically seek to bypass parliamentary democracy to save her own political skin.
We know it, parliament knows it, the rest of Europe knows it, the whole damned world can see it for what it is ...
However there is a silver lining for some. All of the Brexit uncertainty has been absolutely battering Britain for the last 30 months, but Theresa May's goalpost-shifting speech triggered a rapid collapse in the value of the pound to a 20 month low against the Dollar.
This is pretty appalling news for ordinary people because a weaker pound means more food price inflation in the shops and more fuel price inflation at the pumps. Even worse in with in light of the fact our wages are already stagnant due to almost a decade of ruinous ideologically-driven Tory austerity dogma.
It's also a disaster for Brits overseas (like pensioners in Spain, overseas workers with salaries paid in pounds, etc), who have to endure collapsing living standards every time the pound nosedives.
But it's fantastic news for the international speculator class who can make fortunes betting against Britain.
And the best thing about it from their perspective is that it's managed disaster capitalism. It's not like the kind of disaster capitalism that rolls in after a flood or an earthquake.
They've got the dates in advance. They knew Theresa May's Brexit vote would tank the Pound (whether she lost the vote or chickened out of it like she did), and they know that the huge Brexit payday is due on March 29th.
All they have to do is bet against Britain and the cash floods in without them even having to lift a finger.
Fantastic news for the mega-rich, greedy, and immoral speculator class, bloody dire consequences for the rest of us.
But really. What else did we expect when we voted to allow a bunch of callous and incompetent Tories to conduct a "make it up as we go along" Brexit with the sole over-riding objective of serving the interests of the Tory party and the tiny cabal of mega-rich donors who bankroll them?
Unicorns?

Tom

 

[Woosh]

In that case as said, another referendum and we remain in.

Not what the DUP want.
.

the DUP will support a Labour deal.
there is no confirmation that the DUP won't support remain.

 

[Woosh]

Theresa May's cowardly move to shift the date of the 'Brexit' vote when it became clear that she was going to lose it (and her job) just proves what a cynical, self-serving, national interest-defying and shockingly incompetent charlatan she is.

it's a bit of an exaggeration.
There was no good reason to ask MPs to vote today after her debate with JC was cancelled before the weekend.
Her job is to ask the EU if there is anything else they can do to help her.
However, whatever she brings back, it won't be good enough for the ERG and the opposition parties. Her deal will never pass.
Her future is out of her hand.

 

[oldtom]

This matters!



Why are all these MPs on their feet?

The reason is explained by Mike Sivier on the VoxPolitical website:

https://voxpoliticalonline.com/2018/12/11/democracy-strikes-back-corbyn-secures-emergency-debate-on-mays-attempt-to-force-her-brexit-on-us-all/?fbclid=IwAR3_m-wWpzlEcdt54O0cFbT6x5VVVajgshajGUHzvAXdtcFxL29zd4PJ3JA

Tom

 

[oldtom]

Reading as much non-mainstream media material as I can this morning to counter-balance the tory propaganda organs to gain as broad a spectrum of opinion as I can and see if there is any consensus, I picked up this from the 'politics.co.uk' web page.

It illustrates just how evil these tories really are:

new-brexit-low-as-leadsom-attacks-integrity-of-the-speaker

Tom

 

[flecc]

the DUP will support a Labour deal.
there is no confirmation that the DUP won't support remain.

DUP policy is to support Leave though, despite N.I . voting Remain.
.