Brexit, for once some facts.

[Zlatan]

I've already covered this repeatedly but as usual, Leavers ignore answers.

To repeat, it's not about anyone changing their mind.

A large swing the opposite way would come from two factors.

Many average Leave voters who have become dispirited with all that's happened so far would not turn out in the same strength, thinking why bother when a proper Brexit isn't on offer from our negotiators.

And the Remainers who didn't bother to vote last time through complacently thinking Remain was a certainty and coming unstuck. They wouldn't make that mistake again, being more determined to vote.

Few will have changed their minds and certainly none of those interested enough to post in this thread.
.

And here we have a good example of a remainer showing off his superiority complex , explaining the obvious.
The group you mention need to post. I could just as easily say "I, ve told you before many remainers are now sick of EU" ..
So like I said, please some one from any group please post and say which way you have gone.
Simply, has anyone changed their minds? One way or the other.
Going on this quick survey, no they have not. I haven't. Flecc has not. OK a few from both sides will have died but saying new voters will vote remain is pure speculation. But that's the norm for arguments on here isn't it.?
And its exactly why nearly every poll is wrong. People say all sorts of things to placate who they are talking to. (or annoy) Then in the booth they vote as they see it. Out last time. I have seen no real evidence to assume differently. Quite the reverse actually. Every leaver I know is still a leaver....and vice versa.
It will be close even if we have one.

The remainers appearing out of woodwork again is pure speculation, electioneering, wishful thinking. The turn out last time was 72%.
A) There is no evidence to suggest it will be higher.
B) If it is higher there is no evidence to suggest the remainers would be better represented than leavers. Both groups are sick of it.
C) Using turn outs at demos as representitive is flawed. Leave won. Football fans don't moan at ref when decision went there way do they!!!??

Again, I could easily say leavers will turn out in droves if they think remain will. Especially with Daily Mail going into overdrive in the run up.

 

[Fingers]

I, m not convinced . as many remainers seem to be,that a 2nd ref would actually give a different result. Yes, we, ve heard the woman on tele from Swindon saying so but with all the BS could easily be staged.We don't know how she s voted in first place. Yes, the majority on here are remainers (for very apparent reasons, leavers need skin like a Rhino to post here) but that has been case all along. I, m only person I know to change to remain but I, ve now gone back again to leave. Think EU has shown its too complex and distanced from us and trips to BVI, Jamaica and now India has shown another side of argument. There is massive untapped markets wanting British goods. (no matter what OG and Co think)
So a question for everybody. Please post if you have changed your decision since March 2016. I have not. I, m less impressed with EU, sick of being told how thick I am, sick of being called racist. I, d vote leave, no deal in an instant.
So all you converted leavers please take a bow? Or are there more converted remainers? We won't know for sure until ref 2.

Was talking to an ex colleague a few days ago. He is best accountant, I have ever known. He ended up director of a very big Sheffield tool company. His knowledge of economics. investing, tax etc etc really is second to none.
He was moaning that overnight his daughter had become an expert in economics and was telling him why he should change his mind over Brexit. He has paid her an allowance all his life, she has never worked and (his words) couldn't organise a raffle. Yet, here she was on phone telling him about ftse and free trade with EU.!!! Sound familiar...
He is another one who knows nothing along with Peter Hargreaves perhaps. Both still insist we should leave.?? But apparently OG, Flecc and Tom know way more.??? I don't think so.
My ex bank manager friend says she would also still vote leave. The one I mentioned about a year ago, who was head hunted for her financial, investment knowledge and worked at Lloyd's before starting her own Investment company.
I do wonder which side has created most bull **. Think its remain actually.

Welcome back brother.

 

[Woosh]

Both groups are sick of it.

true enough but given a chance of the second referendum, few previous remain voters would have reason to change their mind and vote leave this time whereas many previous leave voters will find reasons to abstain or vote remain.
Before the vote can go ahead, the Electoral Commission will determine the question or questions to ask. This is where leave is at its weakest because the leave camp needs to work out which brexit they promise to deliver and they need to convince the Electoral Commission that their version of brexit is deliverable.
It is then that many waverers will stop believing that leaving is best when the Electoral Commission rejects many of leave previous claims.

 

[flecc]

saying new voters will vote remain is pure speculation.

You are as bad as Fingers for false accusation of what I posted, I made absolutely no reference to new voters.

Try reading what was posted, it's clear enough what that was:

1) Less turnout of Leavers as explained.

2) A greater turnout of those who were already inclined to Remain but were too complacent to vote last time. That didn't presume anything since I was very clearly only speaking of the Remain inclined, no others.
.

 

[Fingers]

And here we have a good example of a remainer showing off his superiority complex , explaining the obvious.
The group you mention need to post. I could just as easily say "I, ve told you before many remainers are now sick of EU" ..
So like I said, please some one from any group please post and say which way you have gone.
Simply, has anyone changed their minds? One way or the other.
Going on this quick survey, no they have not. I haven't. Flecc has not. OK a few from both sides will have died but saying new voters will vote remain is pure speculation. But that's the norm for arguments on here isn't it.?
And its exactly why nearly every poll is wrong. People say all sorts of things to placate who they are talking to. (or annoy) Then in the booth they vote as they see it. Out last time. I have seen no real evidence to assume differently. Quite the reverse actually. Every leaver I know is still a leaver....and vice versa.
It will be close even if we have one.

The remainers appearing out of woodwork again is pure speculation, electioneering, wishful thinking. The turn out last time was 72%.
A) There is no evidence to suggest it will be higher.
B) If it is higher there is no evidence to suggest the remainers would be better represented than leavers. Both groups are sick of it.
C) Using turn outs at demos as representitive is flawed. Leave won. Football fans don't moan at ref when decision went there way do they!!!??

Again, I could easily say leavers will turn out in droves if they think remain will. Especially with Daily Mail going into overdrive in the run up.

I think the apathy people will feel if they have to vote again..and it is a big if....will soon turn to anger once the campaign ratchets up. I could even see a spike in the leave vote.

Some remainers I've know that are not true believers, but have kept an eye on the posturing and negotiations have been quite shocked at what they thought was a relatively benign political influence over them. Ireland has been cursed by more than many a placid person.

Not saying they will turn but I reckon your theory about deciding in the voting both has more than ring of truth to it.

 

[Zlatan]

You are as bad as Fingers for false accusation of what I posted, I made absolutely no reference to new voters.

Try reading what was posted, it's clear enough what that was:

1) Less turnout of Leavers as explained.

2) A greater turnout of those who were already inclined to Remain but were too complacent to vote last time. That didn't presume anything since I was very clearly only speaking of the Remain inclined, no others.
.

Pure and utter speculation, you certainly didn't read my post either.

I agree with Woosh about wording of a 2nd ref tho.
Dont forget both of you remain are canvassing for a vote. They are already mobilising, leave will be doing that the day a ref is announced. Watch the papers remain hate swing into action...
No matter how you judge it the result is by no means a fore drawn conclusion. Be careful what you wish for. It could surprise you again and make your cause even worse... and force a no deal...

 

[Woosh]

Be careful what you wish for. It could surprise you again and make your cause even worse... and force a no deal...

the Electoral Commission would agree to a WTO brexit or Canada brexit but may not agree to a no deal though.
No deal is not deliverable. There is a problem with both WTO brexit and Canada brexit, both require a NI backstop because the UK has signed an international treaty with regard to NI.

 

[oldgroaner]

I, m not convinced . as many remainers seem to be,that a 2nd ref would actually give a different result. Yes, we, ve heard the woman on tele from Swindon saying so but with all the BS could easily be staged.We don't know how she s voted in first place. Yes, the majority on here are remainers (for very apparent reasons, leavers need skin like a Rhino to post here) but that has been case all along. I, m only person I know to change to remain but I, ve now gone back again to leave. Think EU has shown its too complex and distanced from us and trips to BVI, Jamaica and now India has shown another side of argument. There is massive untapped markets wanting British goods. (no matter what OG and Co think)
So a question for everybody. Please post if you have changed your decision since March 2016. I have not. I, m less impressed with EU, sick of being told how thick I am, sick of being called racist. I, d vote leave, no deal in an instant.
So all you converted leavers please take a bow? Or are there more converted remainers? We won't know for sure until ref 2.

Was talking to an ex colleague a few days ago. He is best accountant, I have ever known. He ended up director of a very big Sheffield tool company. His knowledge of economics. investing, tax etc etc really is second to none.
He was moaning that overnight his daughter had become an expert in economics and was telling him why he should change his mind over Brexit. He has paid her an allowance all his life, she has never worked and (his words) couldn't organise a raffle. Yet, here she was on phone telling him about ftse and free trade with EU.!!! Sound familiar...
He is another one who knows nothing along with Peter Hargreaves perhaps. Both still insist we should leave.?? But apparently OG, Flecc and Tom know way more.??? I don't think so.
My ex bank manager friend says she would also still vote leave. The one I mentioned about a year ago, who was head hunted for her financial, investment knowledge and worked at Lloyd's before starting her own Investment company.
I do wonder which side has created most bull **. Think its remain actually.

No, but I thought you were enjoying Goa? It can't be up to much of you have nothing more entertaining to do than coming out with that load of rubbish.
You can be sure of one thing, and that is
You'll change your mind again.
If other people's attitudes makes you change your mind as you claim, you can't have thought the problem through in the first place, just as I suggested long ago
And that untapped market for British goods is fantasy, as there's no one here willing to set about exploiting it.

Sent from my Moto G (5) using Tapatalk

 

[Fingers]

the Electoral Commission would agree to a WTO brexit or Canada brexit but may not agree to a no deal though.
No deal is not deliverable. There is a problem with both WTO brexit and Canada brexit, both require a NI backstop because the UK has signed an international treaty with regard to NI.

You are going to have to explain that International Treaty please @whoosh

And I'm not sure what the difference is between hard brexit and wto brexit.

One and the same I believe.

What it would mean is the onus would be on Ireland to come up with a plan as we would happily have an open customs border with them. They would need permission from their overlords to make this happen though.

 

[Fingers]

No, but I thought you were enjoying Goa? It can't be up to much of you have nothing more entertaining to do than coming out with that load of rubbish.
You can be sure of one thing, and that is
You'll change your mind again.
If other people's attitudes makes you change your mind as you claim, you can't have thought the problem through in the first place, just as I suggested long ago

Sent from my Moto G (5) using Tapatalk

Great input. Such sage words.

Those years may have been cruel to you physically but mentally your mind is like a brand new baby.

 

[Woosh]

You are going to have to explain that International Treaty please @whoosh

And I'm not sure what the difference is between hard brexit and wto brexit.

One and the same I believe.

What it would mean is the onus would be on Ireland to come up with a plan as we would happily have an open customs border with them. They would need permission from their overlords to make this happen though.

Hard brexit is no deal, we don't do anything, just wait for the EU and the ROI to push us off the cliff.
WTO brexit means we will do a minimal deal with the EU to protect citizens rights, air traffic, nuclear medicine etc then apply initially some tariffs as per WTO most favoured nations. Over time, we'll develop better cooperation.
We would pay the EU about £20-£30 billions to settle the EU's bill is probably the brexit that is acceptable to most conservative voters.
The good point is we'll save a packet within 10 years and can pick and choose. The bad point is we may lose an awful lot of manufacturing and agricultural jobs.

Would it win against remain?
I don't know.

 

[oldtom]

You are going to have to explain that International Treaty please @whoosh

And I'm not sure what the difference is between hard brexit and wto brexit.

The great advocate of a future for the people of the UK outside of the EU suddenly reveals that he knows nothing about 'Brexit' really! Why am I not surprised?

I just asked 'Alexa' "Does 'Fingers' know everything?"……she hasn't stopped laughing since and I think I'm going to have to pull the plug on her!

Tom

 

[Woosh]

You are going to have to explain that International Treaty please @whoosh

the GFA is an international treaty between the UK and the ROI.
From wikipedia:

The GFA allows Northern Irish residents access to the European Court of Human Rights, it required enactment of the Human Rights Act 1998. Consequently, the Agreement was a significant factor preventing the repeal of that Act and its replacement with the proposed British Bill of Rights that Prime Minister David Cameron had promised.
The Agreement also makes reference to the UK and Ireland as "partners in the European Union", and it was argued in R (Miller) v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union that the Agreement meant that the consent of Northern Ireland's voters was required to leave the European Union. The UK Supreme Court unanimously held that this was not the case, but the Agreement has nevertheless strongly shaped the form of Brexit.

 

[oldtom]

Hard brexit is no deal, we don't do anything, just wait for the EU and the ROI to push us off the cliff.
WTO brexit means we will do a minimal deal with the EU to protect citizens rights, air traffic, nuclear medicine etc then apply initially some tariffs as per WTO most favoured nations. Over time, we'll develop better cooperation.
We would pay the EU about £20-£30 billions to settle the EU's bill is probably the brexit that is acceptable to most conservative voters.
The good point is we'll save a packet within 10 years and can pick and choose. The bad point is we may lose an awful lot of manufacturing and agricultural jobs.

Would it win against remain?
I don't know.

I agree in part with your summation there 'Woosh' but I don't believe for a moment that the UK will 'save a packet' in 10 years or in any timescale. I doubt very much that there is a saving to be had at all and we may find our nation worse off by any measure applied.

Tom

 

[oldgroaner]

there could be the opposite reaction where leavers and even some remainers have seen the EU as the bully it is and are even more determined to leave

Then quite simply they don't know the difference between an unchanging position based on known and agreed rules rules on the part of the EU which has a duty of support to the remaining member countries, and the UK trying to bully the rest of the EU into ignoring those rules to benefit a country that is leaving by choice, and wants things it has no entitlement to.

If you cannot understand that then you cannot claim to be using common sense.

 

[Kudoscycles]

I, m not convinced . as many remainers seem to be,that a 2nd ref would actually give a different result. Yes, we, ve heard the woman on tele from Swindon saying so but with all the BS could easily be staged.We don't know how she s voted in first place. Yes, the majority on here are remainers (for very apparent reasons, leavers need skin like a Rhino to post here) but that has been case all along. I, m only person I know to change to remain but I, ve now gone back again to leave. Think EU has shown its too complex and distanced from us and trips to BVI, Jamaica and now India has shown another side of argument. There is massive untapped markets wanting British goods. (no matter what OG and Co think)
So a question for everybody. Please post if you have changed your decision since March 2016. I have not. I, m less impressed with EU, sick of being told how thick I am, sick of being called racist. I, d vote leave, no deal in an instant.
So all you converted leavers please take a bow? Or are there more converted remainers? We won't know for sure until ref 2.

Was talking to an ex colleague a few days ago. He is best accountant, I have ever known. He ended up director of a very big Sheffield tool company. His knowledge of economics. investing, tax etc etc really is second to none.
He was moaning that overnight his daughter had become an expert in economics and was telling him why he should change his mind over Brexit. He has paid her an allowance all his life, she has never worked and (his words) couldn't organise a raffle. Yet, here she was on phone telling him about ftse and free trade with EU.!!! Sound familiar...
He is another one who knows nothing along with Peter Hargreaves perhaps. Both still insist we should leave.?? But apparently OG, Flecc and Tom know way more.??? I don't think so.
My ex bank manager friend says she would also still vote leave. The one I mentioned about a year ago, who was head hunted for her financial, investment knowledge and worked at Lloyd's before starting her own Investment company.
I do wonder which side has created most bull **. Think its remain actually.

I am certain that a second referendum would vote Remain,reasons...

1. Leave was heavily an oldies vote,remain was mainly a young vote....many of the olds are now dead or incapable of voting....there are now more young votes.
2. Bobs (Bored of Brexit) will vote Remain just to stop the boredom,Leave could carry on for another 10 years.
3. Will they allow the expats in France/Spain to vote,99% will vote Remain.
4. Many assumed that Remain would win so didnt bother to vote,they wont make that mistake again.
5. Those that voted Leave because of the £350 million Boris lie on the side of the bus,will definitely vote remain.
6. We have made such a mess of these negotiations that many Leavers just cannot trust the likes of Liam Fox to negotiate trade deals,the 60 plus already negotiated by the EU is an incentive to vote Remain.
7. Theresa May is not trusted now,if we vote Leave we are stuck with more of the same from May.
8. The ERG is not trusted as a group,unless you want to bring back fox hunting,more votes against JRM,more Remain.
KudosDave

 

[oldgroaner]

Great input. Such sage words.

Those years may have been cruel to you physically but mentally your mind is like a brand new baby.

Curious is it not that you imagine yourself worthy to judge others ,ignoring the fact that every post you make proves that despite claims of being a creative person ,you haven't even the remotest idea of what benefit Brexit will bring, and lack the talent to articulate such an idea where it ever to prove to exist.

 

[oldgroaner]

The great advocate of a future for the people of the UK outside of the EU suddenly reveals that he knowsnothing about 'Brexit' really! Why am I not surprised?

I just asked 'Alexa' "Does 'Fingers' know everything?"……she hasn't stopped laughing since and I think I'm going to have to pull the plug on her!

Tom

Well it shows they are fitted with a humour chip...

 

[oldgroaner]

There's nothing like an unbiassed opinion
"
PuzzledPolitico‏ @Cat_n_Bagpipes
Replying to @EliasMichalas @Haggis_UK and
Mrs May wanted all of us to look at the Tory Party afresh - as a patriotic, decent, moderate party.
Fascists sponsored by Russia who broke the law to steal the the referendum are also welcome, of course.

Well I did say it was nothing like unbiassed

I didn't say it was untrue.

 

[oldtom]

Personally I quite like children and a United States of Europe exactly what I desire.

Way to go OG! I agree totally.

Tom