Brexit, for once some facts.

[Fingers]

As I've posted previously, the car makers would definitely move to the the EU mainland, the assemblers first, Toyota, Honda, PSA-Vauxhall, but Nissan would not be long after them and probably Jaguar-Land Rover.

In less than a decade we'd be back to the early 1970s when the IMF had to come in to rescued us from bankruptcy. The Leavers say this is project fear, but they'll soon really know what fear is if we do leave in this WTO way.

However, I don't see it happening, as daft as this government is they do know the facts of life.
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We are too closely interlinked now for that to happen now.

End of the day governments are there to help business not stop them. The Italian/French/Portuguese are responsible to their people first. Not the club. This is why everyone is watching so closely. A lot Europeans hope we do well so they can ask for better terns etc. The ruling class less so.

The Irish government will hurt their people for the chance of a petty point scoring exercise

But I predict nothing much will change even with a hard brexit. If Nissan decide to leave then we can approach the south koreans, even american car firms may invest. As @Zlatan says India are interested. They already have big investment here.

Change is not something to be scared of.

 

[oldgroaner]

No

As I've posted previously, the car makers would definitely move to the the EU mainland, the assemblers first, Toyota, Honda, PSA-Vauxhall, but Nissan would not be long after them and probably Jaguar-Land Rover.

In less than a decade we'd be back to the early 1970s when the IMF had to come in to rescued us from bankruptcy. The Leavers say this is project fear, but they'll soon really know what fear is if we do leave in this WTO way.

However, I don't see it happening, as daft as this government is they do know the facts of life.
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We sincerely hope

 

[oldgroaner]

We are too closely interlinked now for that to happen now.

End of the day governments are there to help business not stop them. The Italian/French/Portuguese are responsible to their people first. Not the club. This is why everyone is watching so closely. A lot Europeans hope we do well so they can ask for better terns etc. The ruling class less so.

The Irish government will hurt their people for the chance of a petty point scoring exercise

But I predict nothing much will change even with a hard brexit. If Nissan decide to leave then we can approach the south koreans, even american car firms may invest. As @Zlatan says India are interested. They already have big investment here.

Change is not something to be scared of.

In that case the best possible change would be to cancel Brexit, your notion than any far eastern nation will invest here when we have abandoned the reason they would want to is just fantasy.

 

[flecc]

We are too closely interlinked now for that to happen now.

Agreed.

But I predict nothing much will change even with a hard brexit. If Nissan decide to leave then we can approach the south koreans, even american car firms may invest.

Not so, the only attraction we had was as a door into the huge EU market and that and subsidies is why they all came here. On WTO terms they'd leave and no-one else would be interested in our small UK market. Especially not the Americans, hadn't you realised that GM has just dumped Vauxhall because they don't want to be in the UK any more and Ford moved Dagenham production almost entirely into the mainland EU long ago?
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[Woosh]

Even brexit economists concede that a hard brexit will wipe out most of our manufacturing.
why would they want to manufacture here when we have an open door to imports like Singapore or Hongkong?

 

[anotherkiwi]

Agreed.



Not so, the only attraction we had was as a door into the huge EU market and that and subsidies is why they all came here. On WTO terms they'd leave and no-one else would be interested in our small UK market. Especially not the Americans, hadn't you realised that GM has just dumped Vauxhall because they don't want to be in the UK any more and Ford moved Dagenham production almost entirely into the mainland EU long ago?
.

And Fiat Chrysler are investing in Italy, doesn't leave a lot of american car manufacturers - Tesla maybe?

The great Trump can't understand why European countries don't buy more US cars - because they aren't adapted to our roads? Then again Americans aren't buying them either, they are buying Toyotas! Tesla are the only remaining saloon car manufacturer in the US!

 

[Fingers]

Agreed.



Not so, the only attraction we had was as a door into the huge EU market and that and subsidies is why they all came here. On WTO terms they'd leave and no-one else would be interested in our small UK market. Especially not the Americans, hadn't you realised that GM has just dumped Vauxhall because they don't want to be in the UK any more and Ford moved Dagenham production almost entirely into the mainland EU long ago?
.

Well maybe. But that is a half glass empty look at things. Our market, small as you think it is is quite important to German, French , Spanish and Italian car makers.

I cant see it being too much of a stretch to come some sort of reciprocal deal to suit both sides.

 

[flecc]

And Fiat Chrysler are investing in Italy, doesn't leave a lot of american car manufacturers - Tesla maybe?

And Tesla wouldn't come here for our small car market and backwardness in taking up e-cars compared to many EU countries.

Plus most Tesla's are too big for our roads as reviewers have commented.

If we lost our present car makers and out of the EU, the only way that industry could restart here is if we created a new successful design and brand which is highly unlikely.
.

 

[Kudoscycles]

Campaigners had asked the ECJ to rule on whether Article 50, which legally started the Brexit process, can be revoked by the country that triggered it. The text of the treaty clause is unclear and subject to dispute.

The ruling will come after the court's top legal advisor, the EU advocate general, recommended this week that the UK be given the power to revoke Article 50 without the consent of the EU's other member states.

If the recommendation is followed, as the advocate general's suggestions usually are, then an accidental no-deal Brexit would effectively be taken off the table, as the Government could stop it in any circumstances.

Does this mean that Theresa May could literally withdraw the letter or does she need the support of Parliament?
KudosDave

 

[tillson]

Agreed.



Not so, the only attraction we had was as a door into the huge EU market and that and subsidies is why they all came here. On WTO terms they'd leave and no-one else would be interested in our small UK market. Especially not the Americans, hadn't you realised that GM has just dumped Vauxhall because they don't want to be in the UK any more and Ford moved Dagenham production almost entirely into the mainland EU long ago?
.

It sounds like the exodus is happening then, regardless of whether we leave or remain. It nullifies the argument that leaving the EU will cost jobs. The jobs are disappearing whatever the outcome.

 

[flecc]

Well maybe. But that is a half glass empty look at things. Our market, small as you think it is is quite important to German, French , Spanish and Italian car makers.

I cant see it being too much of a stretch to come some sort of reciprocal deal to suit both sides.

Yes as said, I agree that we are most likely to achieve some sort of deal to enable free movement of manufacturez of both parts and cars.

But it's not an absolute and the government should stop pushing its luck. The EU 27 could each easily lose their up to 8% trade with us without large ill effect, but we losing our 50% trade with them would be a disaster for our economy. Civil disorder would be likely as tens of thousands of jobs disappeared and food banks got swamped with demand they couldn't meet.
.

 

[flecc]

It sounds like the exodus is happening then, regardless of whether we leave or remain. It nullifies the argument that leaving the EU will cost jobs. The jobs are disappearing whatever the outcome.

No, that's only under WTO with tariffs as said.

With a tariff free deal for manufactures and no delay barriers there's no reason to move. Something the motor manufacturers have been stressing is essential all along.
.

 

[flecc]

Does this mean that Theresa May could literally withdraw the letter or does she need the support of Parliament?
KudosDave

I believe she needs parliamentary approval since Parliament agreed to the issue of article 50.
.

 

[oldgroaner]

And Tesla wouldn't come here for our small car market and backwardness in taking up e-cars compared to many EU countries.

Plus most Tesla's are too big for our roads as reviewers have commented.

If we lost our present car makers and out of the EU, the only way that industry could restart here is if we created a new successful design and brand which is highly unlikely.
.

This is the Fundamental flaw in the leave argument
It relies on someone else outside the UK to come to our rescue.
And why?, because even the Brexit fanatics know full well that no one inside the country will lift a finger , invest and take the risk to create useful products they feel are capable of being made and sold for a profit.
That is why in the absence of a powerful imperative to prosper, we are simply doomed to decline.
This should be painfully obvious to everyone.
The days when our business go getting led the world are gone forever, we can only survive and prosper in alliance with others, and those others are the EU

 

[flecc]

no one inside the country will lift a finger , invest and take the risk to create useful products they feel are capable of being made and sold for a profit.

The very few who do like Dyson and Sugar just establish in, or move manufacture to the Orient, depriving us of jobs and the manufacturing feed chain.

Even oft quoted Brompton just braze frames and forks and then build their bikes out of orientally sourced components.
.

 

[tillson]

No, that's only under WTO with tariffs as said.

With a tariff free deal for manufactures and no delay barriers there's no reason to move. Something the motor manufacturers have been stressing is essential all along.
.

I thought you said GM dumped Vauxhall because they no longer wanted to be in the UK and that Ford moved production to mainland EU long ago.

Forgive me, but that sounds like factors other than our leaving the EU caused them to move. I suspect they moved because there are areas within the EU where living standards are lower than those in the U.K. Because of this, the workers in those areas are willing to do the same job as the U.K. worker, but for less cheese. They know no different. Less cash for the worker, more cash for the financiers, investors and the already wealthy. Nice.

 

[Danidl]

Well maybe. But that is a half glass empty look at things. Our market, small as you think it is is quite important to German, French , Spanish and Italian car makers.

I cant see it being too much of a stretch to come some sort of reciprocal deal to suit both sides.

Fingers ,I suspect that flecc has forgotten more about the motor industry than you have ever learned, and certainly more than I have any interest in.

 

[Danidl]

I thought you said GM dumped Vauxhall because they no longer wanted to be in the UK and that Ford moved production to mainland EU long ago.

Forgive me, but that sounds like factors other than our leaving the EU caused them to move. I suspect they moved because there are areas within the EU where living standards are lower than those in the U.K. Because of this, the workers in those areas are willing to do the same job as the U.K. worker, but for less cheese. They know no different. Less cash for the worker, more cash for the financiers, investors and the already wealthy. Nice.

I suspect it may have a bit to do with the improved standards in technical education in those EU countries. .

 

[Danidl]

I believe she needs parliamentary approval since Parliament agreed to the issue of article 50.
.

There are in fact two things. The comments from the AG of the ECJ ,were an opinion not a judgement ,which is expected next Tuesday.
The second was his reference to "constitutional provisions" ,so how this is interpreted within a UK context, where there is no constitution is interesting. That which the uk has are long established conventions and precedence.
However I would believe it ..an request for return of the article 50 letter, would need to be accompanied by a prior vote resinding the request to secede, and putting the repeal of the
Great Repeal Act on the order paper..but not voted. ... The UK would need its own backstop, if the request were denied.

 

[flecc]

I thought you said GM dumped Vauxhall because they no longer wanted to be in the UK and that Ford moved production to mainland EU long ago.

Forgive me, but that sounds like factors other than our leaving the EU caused them to move. I suspect they moved because there are areas within the EU where living standards are lower than those in the U.K. Because of this, the workers in those areas are willing to do the same job as the U.K. worker, but for less cheese. They know no different. Less cash for the worker, more cash for the financiers, investors and the already wealthy. Nice.

Both cases were a bit different with other factors. Vauxhall, whose models are German Opels with the badge changed, have long been unable to compete effectively with their main competitors here and in Germany, their market declining. So long ago they shut down car making in Luton and just made one car model, the Astra at Ellesmere Port, which was established with government subsidy to relieve unemployment in that area.

But with the Astra still losing out they've been cutting back, over 1000 jobs a little over a year ago and recently another 350. They really wanted to shut it down, but commitments to government and the subsidies they'd received made that difficult, so they found another solution, offload Vauxhal-Opel to PSA (Peugeot-Citroen) cheaply. If we end up on WTO terms I can see them shutting here. The government is already rattled by GM's move and has sought assurance from PSA who have given the usual reassurances, no present plans on closure etc., but not worth the paper they're not written on of course.

Ford's case at Dagenham was different again. It was the most complete car manufacturing plant in the world, doing everything from casting cylinder blocks in their own foundry to machinists sewing the car seat covers. But that's old fashioned and costly, modern car making is assembling components from a chain of efficient specialists supplied "just in time", and Dagenham in a crowded edge of London just was hopelessly unsuited to setting up anything like that. So it was moved lock stock and barrel, mainly to Germany. Ford still have several small plants here in various places making parts and a small diesel engine assembly plant at Dagenham, but they'll all go if there's tariffs and or hold ups in "Just in Time" across the channel.
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