Brexit, for once some facts.

[Danidl]

I do not regard Dominic Cummings as a general member of the public. So I do think he should be compelled to attend.

I am holding no torch for him. But.
1. Is he a civil servant?
2. Does he holds sworn office?.
3. Has his organisation been in reciept of public funds, voted by the government.
Unless the answer is Yes then he is a member of the general public. With all the rights of any other menber of the general public, including a right of not being harassed. He might be invited to meet with , but should not be compelled, members of political parties. Indeed if he is a political activist, would he not relish the opportunity to get his point accross.?
It is easy to assert that we and our friends have our/ their .rights respected, it is less easy to accept that those we dispise have also the same rights.

 

[oyster]

I am holding no torch for him. But.
1. Is he a civil servant?
2. Does he holds sworn office?.
3. Has his organisation been in reciept of public funds, voted by the government.
Unless the answer is Yes then he is a member of the general public. With all the rights of any other menber of the general public, including a right of not being harassed. He might be invited to meet with , but should not be compelled, members of political parties. Indeed if he is a political activist, would he not relish the opportunity to get his point accross.?
It is easy to assert that we and our friends have our/ their .rights respected, it is less easy to accept that those we dispise have also the same rights.

I believe they did receive public funding, as in:

What assistance the campaigns can get

• A grant of up to £600,000. The Electoral Commission says this can be used for certain spending including administrative costs, putting together campaign broadcasts and producing a leaflet to send out to voters.
• A free mailing of that leaflet to voters. This is only for the delivery by Royal Mail, rather than dissemination online. It excludes any spending on production.
• Free referendum campaign broadcasts.
• A free dedicated page in an information booklet sent to every household by the Electoral Commission.
• Use of certain public buildings for meetings.

https://fullfact.org/europe/whos-getting-taxpayers-money-eu-referendum/

 

[oldgroaner]

I am holding no torch for him. But.
1. Is he a civil servant?
2. Does he holds sworn office?.
3. Has his organisation been in reciept of public funds, voted by the government.
Unless the answer is Yes then he is a member of the general public. With all the rights of any other menber of the general public, including a right of not being harassed. He might be invited to meet with , but should not be compelled, members of political parties. Indeed if he is a political activist, would he not relish the opportunity to get his point accross.?
It is easy to assert that we and our friends have our/ their .rights respected, it is less easy to accept that those we dispise have also the same rights.

Regarding point 3 would funds contributed by the Russian federation count?

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[oldgroaner]

I believe they did receive public funding, as in:

What assistance the campaigns can get

• A grant of up to £600,000. The Electoral Commission says this can be used for certain spending including administrative costs, putting together campaign broadcasts and producing a leaflet to send out to voters.
• A free mailing of that leaflet to voters. This is only for the delivery by Royal Mail, rather than dissemination online. It excludes any spending on production.
• Free referendum campaign broadcasts.
• A free dedicated page in an information booklet sent to every household by the Electoral Commission.
• Use of certain public buildings for meetings.

https://fullfact.org/europe/whos-getting-taxpayers-money-eu-referendum/

That looks convincing to me!

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[oyster]

2. Does he holds sworn office?.

I understand the general idea, but what actually constitutes sworn office?

 

[Danidl]

I understand the general idea, but what actually constitutes sworn office?

Judges, police officers ,armed forces officers , warrant card holders, MPs!. There is a long list..

 

[Danidl]

I believe they did receive public funding, as in:

What assistance the campaigns can get

• A grant of up to £600,000. The Electoral Commission says this can be used for certain spending including administrative costs, putting together campaign broadcasts and producing a leaflet to send out to voters.
• A free mailing of that leaflet to voters. This is only for the delivery by Royal Mail, rather than dissemination online. It excludes any spending on production.
• Free referendum campaign broadcasts.
• A free dedicated page in an information booklet sent to every household by the Electoral Commission.
• Use of certain public buildings for meetings.

https://fullfact.org/europe/whos-getting-taxpayers-money-eu-referendum/

Ok. .. but organisations don't actually get these things, they are given To a named person who represents the organisation.. normally the general secretary or chief accounting officer. That person is responsible for the proper conduct of the funds, and may require accounting for their dispersion...

 

[Zlatan]

Can't remember if it was Woosh or Danidl...
Total debt of a country is not really the issue, the benchmark is debt to GDP.
UK is too high at 88% but not bad compared to France at 96%..(Germany 68%)
However if we look at Italy specifically and Euro countries in general the figure is unsustainable. (Italy's is 133%).
Agreed this seems to be sustainable from Italy's stance, their bankers and politicians seem quite relaxed about the whole situation but taking into account (as explained in article) the Euro has compounded this situation it does point to the fact one of Italy's solutions would be to come out of Euro and take control of their own fiscal situation. (ie devalue their own currency) In Euro that mechanism is unavailable. It could easily signify the end of the Euro especially when both German banking problems will be bringing to an end their rescue packages. (as with Greece)
The Euro by any financial test is not the healthy currency the EU put forward.

 

[Woosh]

However if we look at Italy specifically and Euro countries in general the figure is unsustainable. (Italy's is 133%).

it is if your creditors are locked in - Italian pensioners in this case.
It similar to the national debt of the US 125%-130% of GDP.

 

[anotherkiwi]

Can't remember if it was Woosh or Danidl...
Total debt of a country is not really the issue, the benchmark is debt to GDP.
UK is too high at 88% but not bad compared to France at 96%..(Germany 68%)
However if we look at Italy specifically and Euro countries in general the figure is unsustainable. (Italy's is 133%).
Agreed this seems to be sustainable from Italy's stance, their bankers and politicians seem quite relaxed about the whole situation but taking into account (as explained in article) the Euro has compounded this situation it does point to the fact one of Italy's solutions would be to come out of Euro and take control of their own fiscal situation. (ie devalue their own currency) In Euro that mechanism is unavailable. It could easily signify the end of the Euro especially when both German banking problems will be bringing to an end their rescue packages. (as with Greece)
The Euro by any financial test is not the healthy currency the EU put forward.

EUR vs USD


EUR vs GBP

Yep, looks pretty weak to me, climbing against both the dollar and the pound. What was the name of that country that wants to be paid in Euros and no longer in dollars now? Silly bookends why would they take such a risk...

 

[Kudoscycles]

Our government is at impasse....many now understand that the Tories are not going to lead us to a good outcome and May is determined to keep her job and keep Labour out of No 10....the end result is that we could by lack of government have no deal....I am sure May doesn’t want to run our country after no deal,that could be horrendous.
There is a growing idea that government has no solution,May will want to avoid a GE so we may need another referendum.
Perhaps a three vote referendum....
Stay in the EU or Crash Out or Accept whatever May/Raab achieves.
It will require a more honest campaign than the Red Bus lies or stupid Project Fear,do politicians know how to be honest?
Whatever the result none of us can say we don’t know the implications,the TV has been full of nothing else for 2 years....I worry about lies from Rees-Mogg and the ERG.
KudosDave

 

[flecc]

Our government is at impasse....many now understand that the Tories are not going to lead us to a good outcome and May is determined to keep her job and keep Labour out of No 10....the end result is that we could by lack of government have no deal....

But the real unknown is how the DUP will react to the different outcomes. No deal means a hard border between north and south in Ireland, the EU wouldn't tolerate anything less. Would the DUP continue to prop up the Tory government in this case?

We know the DUP would not tolerate a North Sea border separating Northern Ireland as well as Southern, yet that may yet be the only deal solution, meaning a rapid collapse of the government.
.

 

[Danidl]

But the real unknown is how the DUP will react to the different outcomes. No deal means a hard border between north and south in Ireland, the EU wouldn't tolerate anything less. Would the DUP continue to prop up the Tory government in this case?

We know the DUP would not tolerate a North Sea border separating Northern Ireland as well as Southern, yet that may yet be the only deal solution, meaning a rapid collapse of the government.
.

North sea?. I assume north channel. Now I am no DUP supporter, but I can see their reasoning. The problem is that their actual supporters have both hearts and minds.... Their hearts will be pro UK , but their minds ( and pockets) will be more pragmatic.

 

[Zlatan]

View attachment 25911

EUR vs USD

View attachment 25912
EUR vs GBP

Yep, looks pretty weak to me, climbing against both the dollar and the pound. What was the name of that country that wants to be paid in Euros and no longer in dollars now? Silly bookends why would they take such a risk...

The strength of a currency is not related to its long term stability. Debt to reserves is highest in world for any major currency for euro. In effect this means far fewer folk would need to withdraw cash before banks could not pay back investors/savers.Anybody who actually thinks euro is in a healthy place is completely missing point. Every fx trader, stock broker and financial adviser in the entire world knows euro is on a knife edge, much more so than Sterling, Yen or Dollar.
Yes the earlier link perhaps over emphasised danger but nonetheless it is and has been for a while at risk.
Brexit, Italy, Greece and the German banking problems are all compounding the risk. Ignoring the issue is stupid.
Defending the position the EU chiefs have taken (actually haven't taken) in blind support of EU is burying your head in sand. After 08 crash the UK, USA and Japan introduced changes to prevent a repeat of sub prime fiasco. Italy and to a lesser extent entire EU are worse now than in 08. EU has purchased billions of bad debt from Italy, that can not continue. And will not. Buying the bad debt is nothing like preventing the bad debts materialising in first place. The EU, specifically Germany and Italy have marched blindly on. If we do have another sub prime incident they would collapse bringing euro to its knees. The figures and rule changes introduced are all available. Just read them.

 

[Woosh]

...I worry about lies from Rees-Mogg and the ERG.

If I were TM, I'd spend immediately 10 billions to prepare for a hard brexit.
it's the best way to counter the ERG.
People will appreciate how much hard brexit is going to cost.

 

[oldgroaner]

The strength of a currency is not related to its long term stability. Debt to reserves is highest in world for any major currency. In effect this means far fewer folk would need to withdraw cash before banks could not pay back investors/savers.Anybody who actually thinks euro is in a healthy place is completely missing point. Every fx trader, stock broker and financial adviser in the entire world knows euro is on a knife edge, much more so than Sterling, Yen or Dollar.
Yes the earlier link perhaps over emphasised danger but nonetheless it is and has been for a while at risk.
Brexit, Italy, Greece and the German banking problems are all compounding the risk. Ignoring the issue is stupid.

Ignoring the risk is stupid?
Glory be! Can this really be a brexit voter saying this? [emoji41]

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[oyster]

There is a long list..

Where?

I did look at least a little before I asked.

 

[Zlatan]

Ignoring the risk is stupid?
Glory be! Can this really be a brexit voter saying this? [emoji41]

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If EU cause a world wide financial collapse brought about by repeating same mistakes USA made in 08 the fallout will make Brexit argument look completely insignificant.
So far the only actions taken in Euro zone have been to purchase the billions of toxic debt, ie putting losses onto those that can afford it. USA tried that in 08 for granted a massive financial institution but just imagine the consequences for an entire country (Italy). (Along with two of German top banks). Sums involved are around 15 fold larger than origins of 08.
Its all been kept quiet to try and keep confidence but just do your homework OG and remove your blinkers.
And then start guessing why EU is fighting toothe and nail to keep us on board ?
Haven't you ever wondered why EU can't just say, "well you want to leave, go ahead".They insist it's for our benefit. Like feck it is. They need us.
The 08 recession was caused by for all intents and purposes a good number of home owners in US realising they couldn't or needn't pay mortgages. They renaged on payments. That is happening in Italy on an industrial scale, literally and metaphorically. You are arguing it can carry on regardless.,???? It can't. When it stops, whatever happens is anyone's guess.

 

[Danidl]

Can't remember if it was Woosh or Danidl...
Total debt of a country is not really the issue, the benchmark is debt to GDP.
UK is too high at 88% but not bad compared to France at 96%..(Germany 68%)
However if we look at Italy specifically and Euro countries in general the figure is unsustainable. (Italy's is 133%).
Agreed this seems to be sustainable from Italy's stance, their bankers and politicians seem quite relaxed about the whole situation but taking into account (as explained in article) the Euro has compounded this situation it does point to the fact one of Italy's solutions would be to come out of Euro and take control of their own fiscal situation. (ie devalue their own currency) In Euro that mechanism is unavailable. It could easily signify the end of the Euro especially when both German banking problems will be bringing to an end their rescue packages. (as with Greece)
The Euro by any financial test is not the healthy currency the EU put forward.

..it wasn't me... I don't do international finance..

 

[oyster]

Yet another JRM issue:

Jacob Rees-Mogg's investment fund launches second Irish fund
New fund was created to meet demand from international investors, according to SCM

Ben Quinn

A second investment fund has been set up in Ireland by the City firm co-founded by Jacob Rees-Mogg, after it warned earlier this year about the financial dangers of the sort of hard Brexit favoured by the Conservative MP.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/22/jacob-rees-mogg-second-irish-fund-scm