Brexit, for once some facts.

[Danidl]

If I were TM, I'd spend immediately 10 billions to prepare for a hard brexit.
it's the best way to counter the ERG.
People will appreciate how much hard brexit is going to cost.

That would be prudent. Like compulsory purchase orders for trailer parking ,customs huts , additional manpower, extra immigration officials.
The fact that there has been no visible sign of any of these things that makes one believe that they are sleepwalking. .. Even little old Ireland has started the recruitment process for customs

 

[oyster]

Where?

I did look at least a little before I asked.

If being the director of a significant organisation that receives at least some taxpayer funding doesn't require some sort of swearing, perhaps it should?

 

[Zlatan]

it is if your creditors are locked in - Italian pensioners in this case.
It similar to the national debt of the US 125%-130% of GDP.

That is utter rubbish. And you know enough to know it.

Some more from same stable perhaps.

https://amp.uk.businessinsider.com/italy-debt-global-gdp-growth-2017-7

Interesting point for those who refuse to read my links. Statistically the recession in Greece is now worse than that of USA in the 30's. Isn't the EU fantastic.

 

[Woosh]

That is utter rubbish. And you know enough to know it.

Some more from same stable perhaps.

https://amp.uk.businessinsider.com/italy-debt-global-gdp-growth-2017-7

Italy's budget deficit is reducing, the danger point has been passed since last year.

 

[oldtom]

The lies and deceit from tories just never stops. This woman sees what is wrong at the present time:



Carole Cadwalladr
‏

FollowFollow @carolecadwalla​

Incredible! @DominicRaab was on the campaign committee of Vote Leave. He is actually implicated in the breaking of multiple laws. Yet he has audacity to suggest these offences are being ‘used’ to discredit the result of the referendum. No, Dominic. Breaking the law discredits you!

Tom

 

[Woosh]

Interesting point for those who refuse to read my links.

and you don't read up on contrary arguments either.

The EU would like Italy's deficit to be under 1%.
"Italy's 5-Star to keep budget deficit at 1.5 percent, says leader Di Maio" (Reuters 04/04/2018)

Can we match Italy's deficit? No, with a hard brexit, our national debt will be about twice Italy's by the time new shoots cancel the loss to the economy by hard brexit and that's optimistic. If FX traders decide to dump their position on GBP, we'll be in deeper troubles.

 

[Zlatan]

Italy's budget deficit is reducing, the danger point has been passed since last year.

Rubbish again. Their debt to GDP has improved around 1% and still around 32% worse than 08 collapse. (In 08 it was 98% and way too high at that)
They are in a financially terrible state and with an increasing number wanting to solve problem by having their own fiscal control. (ie a return to Lira)
They could not repay EU... Damage to Euro incalculable.
The only thing that has happened is problem as stopped getting worse by such great amounts. It has not gone away by any means. Your graph even says so much.
And they are in this state after having received billions with barely an increase in GDP. What happens when they need more to maintain where they are.
Its like saying your child is now financially stable and independant after paying their mortgage for last 10 years, knowing full well they need to pay that mortgage next 10 years without help. They won't /can't.
They are in almost same situation as Greece. Going nowhere. Just taking the cash whilst it's on offer. See what happens when its gone and austerity bites their bums.

 

[Woosh]

Your graph even says so much.

PS: I apoligise, Italy GDP growth is still below 1%. I thought it was higher than that, albeit the gap between growth of national debt and GDP has narrowed.

 

[Zlatan]

and you don't read up on contrary arguments either.

The EU would like Italy's deficit to be under 1%.
"Italy's 5-Star to keep budget deficit at 1.5 percent, says leader Di Maio" (Reuters 04/04/2018)

Can we match Italy's deficit? No, with a hard brexit, our national debt will be about twice Italy's by the time new shoots cancel the loss to the economy by hard brexit and that's optimistic. If FX traders decide to dump their position on GBP, we'll be in deeper troubles.

And, your summation is completely hypothetical.(around our gdp/debt) .
Italy's problems are real and current.

 

[oldgroaner]

If EU cause a world wide financial collapse brought about by repeating same mistakes USA made in 08 the fallout will make Brexit argument look completely insignificant.
So far the only actions taken in Euro zone have been to purchase the billions of toxic debt, ie putting losses onto those that can afford it. USA tried that in 08 for granted a massive financial institution but just imagine the consequences for an entire country (Italy). (Along with two of German top banks). Sums involved are around 15 fold larger than origins of 08.
Its all been kept quiet to try and keep confidence but just do your homework OG and remove your blinkers.
And then start guessing why EU is fighting toothe and nail to keep us on board ?
Haven't you ever wondered why EU can't just say, "well you want to leave, go ahead".They insist it's for our benefit. Like feck it is. They need us.
The 08 recession was caused by for all intents and purposes a good number of home owners in US realising they couldn't or needn't pay mortgages. They renaged on payments. That is happening in Italy on an industrial scale, literally and metaphorically. You are arguing it can carry on regardless.,???? It can't. When it stops, whatever happens is anyone's guess.

You are making me laugh again with your fake "Wisdom"
"Its all been kept quiet to try and keep confidence but just do your homework OG and remove your blinkers.

Great stuff! you really are starting to sound as desperate as the Daily Express!

 

[Zlatan]

that graph means the growth of their national debt is less than the growth of their economy, meaning their ability to service the debt has improved and the risk of defaulting reduced.
Contrast that with our national debt and we haven't even left the EU yet.

Errr. By 1%...That means the decline has slowed. In the last 10 years its fallen 34%, and as I said previously you are not taking into account the billions received. Remove the help and they are still in decline.

 

[Zlatan]

You are making me laugh again with your fake "Wisdom"
"Its all been kept quiet to try and keep confidence but just do your homework OG and remove your blinkers.

Great stuff! you really are starting to sound as desperate as the Daily Express!

Maths isn't your strong suit then OG?

 

[oldgroaner]

If being the director of a significant organisation that receives at least some taxpayer funding doesn't require some sort of swearing, perhaps it should?

Oh, so it's OK to swear at them is it?

No more Mr Nice Guy and all that?

 

[oldgroaner]

Maths isn't your strong suit then OG?

It doesn't have to be to see that yours wasn't good enough for you to see Brexit is a dead duck, and actually vote for it?
What kind of maths gave you that result?
If you used a Calculator take it back under guarantee.
Yes I know you did deny it at first, and no doubt when the proverbial hits the fan,you will again

 

[Zlatan]

 

[Woosh]

I did check Italy's GDP growth after posting and apoligise, Italy GDP growth is still below 1%. I thought it was higher than that, albeit the gap between growth of national debt and GDP growth has narrowed.

 

[Zlatan]

It doesn't have to be to see that yours wasn't good enough for you to see Brexit is a dead duck, and actually vote for it?
Yes I know you did deny it at first, and no doubt when the proverbial hits the fan,you will again

No, I was head of Maths for 12 years,, know nowt about it.Lectured in it for 30. Then decided to put it to use.

 

[Zlatan]

I did check Italy's GDP growth after posting and apoligise, Italy GDP growth is still below 1%. I thought it was higher than that, albeit the gap between growth of national debt and GDP growth has narrowed.

Dont apologise. I thought they had less than 0.7%.

 

[oldgroaner]

I did check Italy's GDP growth after posting and apoligise, Italy GDP growth is still below 1%. I thought it was higher than that, albeit the gap between growth of national debt and GDP growth has narrowed.

Not to worry old chap the only growth that will worry us here in the UK is in the length of the Dole queues.
Mind you tthe Government will curry the figures even more than they are doing now, reducing 21% to single figures as the government does would stretch even Zlatan's imagination.
They use a cunning engineering principle of course, they print the graphs and bar charts on balloons, any figure that takes your fancy can be obtained by adjusting the gas pressure.
Hence the prominence of the terms "Inflation " and "deflation"

 

[oldgroaner]

No, I was head of Maths for 12 years,, know nowt about it.Lectured in it for 30. Then decided to put it to use.

And bought a Calculator? at least with that background I expect you got the right change?