Brexit, for once some facts.

oldgroaner

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TM addresses the new cabinet

Now we've got rid of those awful leave chappies
The answer is so simple I'm surprised no one has thought of it before.

We get the EU to say we have left
We have a big party and free Union Jacks all round
We actually stay in and pretend we haven't

Gove puts his hand up and offers

That's Good and original Mrs May
But the parts that are good aren't original
And the parts that are original arent good

Don't trouble me with trivialities, do as your wife told you to do! just sell it to the plebs or go home in a Taxi
She replies with a sinister smile.
 
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Kudoscycles

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and more. I think the EU will flex enough for TM to get the Chequers deal.
No .May will flex enough to get the Chequers Deal. Ironically May's weakness could be her strength,the EU will want her to succeed because if she fails they may get a Brexit hardliner. But she will bend over backwards to keep Brexit going so will achieve a super soft brexit to keep parliament and the people happy.
The amendments that Rees-Mogg is proposing to restrict her concessions wont work because the vast majority of Tories and actually most of Labour dont want hard line Brexiters in power.
KudosDave
 

Woosh

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No .May will flex enough to get the Chequers Deal. Ironically May's weakness could be her strength,the EU will want her to succeed because if she fails they may get a Brexit hardliner. But she will bend over backwards to keep Brexit going so will achieve a super soft brexit to keep parliament and the people happy.
The amendments that Rees-Mogg is proposing to restrict her concessions wont work because the vast majority of Tories and actually most of Labour dont want hard line Brexiters in power.
KudosDave
TM only needs the EU to make a political declaration, somnething along the line 'the EU and the UK will seek to establish a common customs area with full regulatory alignment'.
that's all she needs to declare 'brexit is now brexit'.
She'll flex later.
 

oldgroaner

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In the Express
Jackass has made his play
"
BREXIT REBELLION: Jacob Rees-Mogg and Brexit hardliners demand amendments to trade bill
THERESA May is facing a revolt and is risking the collapse of her Government as Brexiteer MPs, led by Jacob Rees-Mogg, table four amendments in a bid to sabotage her Chequers Brexit plan.

And the DUP have proved the money spent to buy them has run out already
"
The second amendment, concerning the Irish Sea, has been backed by the DUP and Labour’s Kate Hoey.

It is very significant that Mr Rees-Mogg has won the backing of the DUP for one of the amendments as the Northern Irish party had promised to support Mrs May’s government in confidence votes and Brexit policy after the Conservatives needed their support to get a majority in the 2017 election. "

What a waste of money bribing the DUP has proved to be.
 
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Woosh

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I don't think these amendments amount to much but this one: 'government is required to draw up primary legislation if the UK wants to remain in the EU customs union' is good to gauge the level of support for hard brexit.
The other 3 are fluff.
 

oldgroaner

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The Express have confused me with this
"
BREXIT SHOCK: Number of people wanting EU exit remains HIGH – poll reveals
THE number of British people who want to leave the EU has continued to remain high since the lead up to the Brexit vote in June 2016, a major annual survey has revealed.
seems straight forward, but underneath, this.....
"
The 2017 NatCen British Social Attitudes Survey, whose results have just been released, questioned 3,988 at the end of last year on what they believe it is like to live in Britain and how they think the country is run.

More than a third (36 percent) of interviewees at the time the poll was conducted wanted to leave the EU - which is up from 22 percent in the research from 2015.

The rise in support for leaving the EU has not been accompanied by increased concern about the implications of EU membership or greater optimism about the consequences of exiting the bloc, the research found.

But the number of people who believe membership of the EU undermines Britain’s “distinctive identity” has fallen from 47 percent in 2015 to 41 percent now, while 31 percent felt “strongly European” - up six points on 2015.
 
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oyster

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More than a third (36 percent) of interviewees at the time the poll was conducted wanted to leave the EU - which is up from 22 percent in the research from 2015.
How do we get from 36% wanting to leave to a WillOfThePeople claim?

I suspect that the number questioning the wisdom (ha! what wisdom?) of leaving could very well have risen substantially as we have gone through more and more protracted, nasty, ineffectual discussions about how to leave.
 
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Woosh

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Can you work an example of that?
the EU will slap anti-dumping duty on Chinese ebikes on the 20-July or the following week. The suggested amount is 149%. Nobody can continue importing ebikes from China with this kind of trade war weapons.
 
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Woosh

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How do we get from 36% wanting to leave to a WillOfThePeople claim?
easy: leavers won last time. Until the next referendum, the will of the people is what Moggy says it is because the Express, the Sun, the Mail and the Telegraph all agree with Moggy and they are 'the people'.
 

oyster

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the EU will slap anti-dumping duty on Chinese ebikes on the 20-July or the following week. The suggested amount is 149%. Nobody can continue importing ebikes from China with this kind of trade war weapons.
Doesn't that provide an incentive to anyone in the UK who makes ebikes? They are in a much stronger position to compete against Chinese ebikes.
 
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Woosh

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Doesn't that provide an incentive to anyone in the UK who makes ebikes? They are in a much stronger position to compete against Chinese ebikes.
it does, but they keep us guessing how much the anti dumping duty is since January this year. The tactic is enough to drive many off buying from China. I can't hire assemblers before I know what the new level of import duty is.
 

oldgroaner

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it does, but they keep us guessing how much the anti dumping duty is since January this year. The tactic is enough to drive many off buying from China. I can't hire assemblers before I know what the new level of import duty is.
It's not assemblers we are short of, its R&D and Designers, Electronic controls and Motor Manufacturers, we have plenty of die casting, metal bashing and welding companies , and knocking up cycle parts should be within our capability.
We could start the way the Chinese did and "reverse engineer" their designs.

This is what is going to kill Brexit in it's tracks, no one is willing to "Bite the Bullet" and invest enough "brass" to become Professional Manufacturers.

You can't take on the Tiger economies with frightened rabbits.
 

Woosh

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It's not assemblers we are short of, its R&D and Designers, Electronic controls and Motor Manufacturers, we have plenty of die casting, metal bashing and welding companies , and knocking up cycle parts should be within our capability.
We could start the way the Chinese did and "reverse engineer" their designs.

This is what is going to kill Brexit in it's tracks, no one is willing to "Bite the Bullet" and invest enough "brass" to become Professional Manufacturers.

You can't take on the Tiger economies with frightened rabbits.
it's not so much that we can't invest, the real problem is volume. We gave up exporting goods many years ago, it will take a lot of effort to build up volume.
 
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oldgroaner

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it's not so much that we can't invest, the real problem is volume. We gave up exporting goods many years ago, it will take a lot of effort to build up volume.
And longer still to find the courage to try
I worked for what was a successful American company that gave up when it found easy pickings by investing in a joint venture in China
Sent from my Moto G (5) using Tapatalk
 
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Woosh

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And longer still to find the courage to try
I worked for what was a successful American company that gave up when it found easy pickings by investing in a joint venture in China
Sent from my Moto G (5) using Tapatalk
it's easier to try under WTO compared to the SM.
 

oyster

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oyster

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it's easier to try under WTO compared to the SM.
Under WTO, how would UK exports to EU be treated? More generously than the tariff being applied to Chinese imports, I assume.

Let us say that you came up with a good, competitive design for a motor - a key component. You want to sell it to, among others, the big German companies like Cube. Would you be able to compete better against Bosch with their being inside the EU (and the SM) - or outside operating under some form of WTO?
 
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