Brexit, for once some facts.

[Zlatan]

Yes but the reason you buy German product, is because you can buy it cheaper than tooling up to make it. Likewise the same British companies could at present buy their widgets from Korea, perhaps with a little bit of tarriff, but the lower wages there make it affordable...

That's not quite true. It seems we will pay a premium for certain German cars even tho quite inferior to our own.( Audis and Porsche over Jaguar, which to be fair are now Indoan) The Japanese will pay way over odds for old British sports cars...
We are all willing to pay over odds for what we perceive " quality". Bentley,Rolls,Ferrari have never sold on price.
That's the markets UK should chase post Brexit. We have an affinity towards supplying it and contrary to thoughts on here rest of world does agree.( McClaren case in point)
Ask shot gun collectors. Purdy etc .

 

[flecc]

to claim our decline somehow stopped with our joining EU in 73 is completely wrong.

I've never claimed this, it very obviously continued as the few remaining critically weakened companies continued to fall by the wayside.

Their fate was already obvious by the early 1970s, BL being an example as you will know. One look at their products showed only a miracle could save it.

And what about all the British car names that had vanished by then, and I don't mean the many names BL owned. I mean Alvis, Lea Francis, Sunbeam Talbot, Armstrong Siddeley, Frazer Nash, Humber, Hillman, Standard, Lagonda, Lanchester, AC, Heally, Jowett, Allard, Jensen, Bristol, Trojan and many, many others.

They all shut down well before the 1980s and mostly in the 1960s, but which car makers of any consequence have shut down since 1980 during the EU era? Just BL and Reliant, making your argument completely invalid.
.

 

[Danidl]

That's not quite true. It seems we will pay a premium for certain German cars even tho quite inferior to our own.( Audis and Porsche over Jaguar, which to be fair are now Indoan) The Japanese will pay way over odds for old British sports cars...
We are all willing to pay over odds for what we perceive " quality". Bentley,Rolls,Ferrari have never sold on price.
That's the markets UK should chase post Brexit. We have an affinity towards supplying it and contrary to thoughts on here rest of world does agree.( McClaren case in point)
Ask shot gun collectors. Purdy etc .

My comment was directed towards those piece parts used by oems as was wooshs prior posting. There is certainly a market in the ultra luxury markets where perception is everything and snob value to be cherished. But consider those branded products to which you refer owe their value to the british prestige of pre war Edwardian empire not to any intrinsic values they possess over their current rivals
Two cases in point Waterford crystal glass and "balbriggans "... look up cowboy stories were also in victorian times were global brands.

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

some facts...

doesn't look like the EU members ship has had a negative impact on manufacturing in the UK does it?

https://fullfact.org/economy/did-labour-decimate-manufacturing/

 

[Zlatan]

My comment was directed towards those piece parts used by oems as was wooshs prior posting. There is certainly a market in the ultra luxury markets where perception is everything and snob value to be cherished. But consider those branded products to which you refer owe their value to the british prestige of pre war Edwardian empire not to any intrinsic values they possess over their current rivals
Two cases in point Waterford crystal glass and "balbriggans "... look up cowboy stories were also in victorian times were global brands.

McClaren ?
Jaguar ?
Lotus ?

 

[Zlatan]

some facts...

doesn't look like the EU members ship has had a negative impact on manufacturing in the UK does it?

https://fullfact.org/economy/did-labour-decimate-manufacturing/

I,m assuming your graph has made an allowance for change in value of pound, inflation, rise in FTSE and house prices etc etc. Without which the graph actually shows a massive massive drop. ie a high of £186kk in 1998 from a figure of £155kk in 1970....roughly 18% increase 30 years. Without looking I,d guess FTSE has gone upto by a factor of 10.. in that time; general goods similar and houses probably by a factor of 20 ?? All guesses but you get my point.
So yes in real terms the value has dropped massively.
In 1972 cheapest car on road could still be bought for £1000. ( Hillman Imp) Wonder what cheapest in 1998 was ?

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

I,m assuming your graph has made an allowance for change in value of pound, inflation, rise in FTSE and house prices etc etc. Without which the graph actually shows a massive massive drop. ie a high of £186kk in 1998 from a figure of £155kk in 1970....roughly 18% increase 30 years. Without looking I,d guess FTSE has gone upto by a factor of 10.. in that time; general goods similar and houses probably by a factor of 20 ?? All guesses but you get my point.
So yes in real terms the value has dropped massively.
In 1972 cheapest car on road could still be bought for £1000. ( Hillman Imp) Wonder what cheapest in 1998 was ?

I didn't produce the graph, but yes I'm assuming they've factored that in when they say its "based on the 2011 values".

Also to put it all in context if you look at the % of global output it removes any actual numbers.

From the same source.

So we've bounced around at about 4% of the worlds output since the 1970s, but its declined a bit recently, but that impact is probably due to China, not the EU.

 

[Woosh]

some facts...

doesn't look like the EU members ship has had a negative impact on manufacturing in the UK does it?

https://fullfact.org/economy/did-labour-decimate-manufacturing/

this chart shows better how we are doing (as percentage of GDP and compare our output against our rivals):

UK plot is in dark gray, France did slightly worse than us up to the referendum then the Pound crashed, so the 2017 figure may show France's industrial output higher than ours. No wonder Macron said that if he were to offer frexit referendum, the French would probably vote the same way. Germany, Japan, Italy and USA show better industrial strategies.

 

[Danidl]

McClaren ?
Jaguar ?
Lotus ?

Zatlan, I am not a petrol head or particularly interested in cars, but of the three brands you mention are they not in foreign ownership, according to wilki. Or in any event engaged in engine development with other companies like Mercedes-Benz or Toyota.. In any event the jaguar is actually an Edwardian development, even if slightly later than WW1 again by courtesy of the wilkipedia a linear successor of a company called SS swallow.
The major point is that even allowing for some excellent engineering, and the UK has some in the audio field as well... The BBC has a global reputation, these are minority interests, and will not keep a countriesworkforce employed.

 

[Wicky]

Meanwhile as the twonkers who initiated the whole Brexit debacle turn in on themselves...

 

[oldgroaner]

The real elephant in the room is the simple fact that we were slowly going under due to poor management, Financial Swindles, lack of long term investment and strategy and propped up with our Services and other swindles courtesy of access to the EU, with Engineering under the control and ownership of Foreign companies better organised than our own unfortunately, who were bribed to come with the prospect of free entry into the EU market.
What happens when they move into an EU Country? and the Banks drift over there over time?

Add to that we have been wasting money on Wars for the Americans and Trident and now the Armed Forces have warned of the menace of a Resurgent Russia (When the Red Army could always always have rolled over us in days without breaking into a sweat., but has no reason to.)
And we would not dare to use Nukes to defend ourselves as they could reduce the country to ashes any time they wanted to.

Granted we were not doing well in the EU, though why we should expect to do better with the same Clowns running the Country and what little home owned industry that still exists.
even if we strike trade deals overnight (we won't) what are we going to service them with?
Where are the factories to turn out products en masse on a scale that we will need to compete with the Tiger economies?
To do any good at all we will need robotic factories, which we can neither afford nor will they feed 65 Million mouths as the rich will pocket any proceeds?
Utter madness! out of the Frying Pan into the fire, and we hear so many confident predictions based entirely on wishful thinking.

When you look at them they are the equivalent of trying to bale out the Sinking Titanic with a leaky bucket and a Human Chain.

Best Suggestion I can make is to ask the Forestry Commision to plant a Million Magic money trees, we are going to need them.

 

[flecc]

now the Armed Forces have warned of the menace of a Resurgent Russia

And what utter nonsense from General Nick Carter, warning that our tanks couldn't defend against Russia's force.

In fact our 300 ageing tanks are plenty against Russia's 2500, simply because those Russian tanks can't swim here.

Once again this gives the game away, not so much defence as wanting to attack abroad on behalf of the Americans.
.

 

[Danidl]

And what utter nonsense General Nick Carter uttered, warning that our tanks couldn't defend against Russia's force.

In fact our 300 ageing tanks are plenty against Russia's 2500, simply because those Russian tanks can't swim here.

Once again this gives the game away, not so much defence as wanting to attack abroad on behalf of the Americans.
.

From what I was told, the western alliance had a perfectly feasible defense plan in the 1980s .. send whatever tanks they had available to northern Germany , say Luneburg heath and allow them to engage with the Russian hoards, when inevitably after 15 minutes and overwhelming odds they were defeated, the west had a moral imperative to nuke that area of Germany with battle field nukes , and allow the American army time to bring their kit across. Into southern france The UK would probably would escape with minor radiation , pity about the Germans and poles and Dutch, .. well they had it coming...

 

[flecc]

From what I was told, the western alliance had a perfectly feasible defense plan in the 1980s .. send whatever tanks they had available to northern Germany , say Luneburg heath and allow them to engage with the Russian hoards, when inevitably after 15 minutes and overwhelming odds they were defeated, the west had a moral imperative to nuke that area of Germany with battle field nukes , and allow the American army time to bring their kit across. Into southern france The UK would probably would escape with minor radiation , pity about the Germans and poles and Dutch, .. well they had it coming...

Yes, I knew of that plan, all part of the same lunacy.

Russia today has neither the desire nor the intention of attacking other European countries. They merely want us to stop siding with the US policy of surrounding them with heavily armed NATO countries.

They see it as aggression, and they are right.
.

 

[Wicky]

They see it as aggression, and they are right.

Um nope - the Russians are prioritising a build up of their military as they have a grand longing for their old glorious Soviet Union by whatever means. Initially powerless when the old union collapsed they are wanting ro make life difficult for former buffer countries that are enjoying their independance away from Russia and look more to West for a better way of life esp security i.e Ukraine, Poland, Baltics etc.

The West / NATO has sent in some speed bump forces to Ukraine, Poland, Baltics so if Putin/ Vacationing Russian military does exceed himself the response would be (hopefully with agreement) met by a unified NATO.

(Have people already forgotten the Russian shooting down of MH17 airliner over Ukraine killing all 298 aboard, and their farcical denials and photoshopped excuses)

As Russia doctrine in first use of nukes if the motherland is invaded - The West has no interest in repeating Napoleon's or Hitler's mistake - heck there was once a hope Russia could become more European in alignment when they were down and out, but have chosen to go down the dark path of fervent authoritarian Nationalism.

A bit like if Farage got somehow to be El Presidente and wanted to rebuild Victoria's British Empire along with mandatory reuns of The Good Old Days on a dedicated propoganda channel.

And I'm probably biased as me dear Mum and Aunt found themsleves here in the UK as refuggees after Stalin decided to romp into Hungary many moons ago - so yes I've inherited a suspicion of Russian intentions Even a teen art sudent rather than protest against the bomb I took the progmatic approach and volunteered to serve with The Royal Observer Corp, studied aircraft recogition, learnt to type so I use a teletype machine to report where the bombs were going off from deep within my underground bunker, with the hope it all blows over....

 

[Zlatan]

Um nope - the Russians are prioritising a build up of their military as they have a grand longing for their old glorious Soviet Union by whatever means. Initially powerless when the old union collapsed they are wanting ro make life difficult for former buffer countries that are enjoying their independance away from Russia and look more to West for a better way of life esp security i.e Ukraine, Poland, Baltics etc.

The West / NATO has sent in some speed bump forces to Ukraine, Poland, Baltics so if Putin/ Vacationing Russian military does exceed himself the response would be (hopefully with agreement) met by a unified NATO.

(Have people already forgotten the Russian shooting down of MH17 airliner over Ukraine killing all 298 aboard, and their farcical denials and photoshopped excuses)

As Russia doctrine in first use of nukes if the motherland is invaded - The West has no interest in repeating Napoleon's or Hitler's mistake - heck there was once a hope Russia could become more European in alignment when they were down and out, but have chosen to go down the dark path of fervent authoritarian Nationalism.

A bit like if Farage got somehow to be El Presidente and wanted to rebuild Victoria's British Empire along with mandatory reuns of The Good Old Days on a dedicated propoganda channel.

And I'm probably biased as me dear Mum and Aunt found themsleves here in the UK as refuggees after Stalin decided to romp into Hungary many moons ago - so yes I've inherited a suspicion of Russian intentions Even a teen art sudent rather than protest against the bomb I took the progmatic approach and volunteered to serve with The Royal Observer Corp, studied aircraft recogition, learnt to type so I use a teletype machine to report where the bombs were going off from deep within my underground bunker, with the hope it all blows over....

Good post.

 

[Danidl]

Um nope - the Russians are prioritising a build up of their military as they have a grand longing for their old glorious Soviet Union by whatever means. Initially powerless when the old union collapsed they are wanting ro make life difficult for former buffer countries that are enjoying their independance away from Russia and look more to West for a better way of life esp security i.e Ukraine, Poland, Baltics etc.

The West / NATO has sent in some speed bump forces to Ukraine, Poland, Baltics so if Putin/ Vacationing Russian military does exceed himself the response would be (hopefully with agreement) met by a unified NATO.

(Have people already forgotten the Russian shooting down of MH17 airliner over Ukraine killing all 298 aboard, and their farcical denials and photoshopped excuses)

As Russia doctrine in first use of nukes if the motherland is invaded - The West has no interest in repeating Napoleon's or Hitler's mistake - heck there was once a hope Russia could become more European in alignment when they were down and out, but have chosen to go down the dark path of fervent authoritarian Nationalism.

A bit like if Farage got somehow to be El Presidente and wanted to rebuild Victoria's British Empire along with mandatory reuns of The Good Old Days on a dedicated propoganda channel.

And I'm probably biased as me dear Mum and Aunt found themsleves here in the UK as refuggees after Stalin decided to romp into Hungary many moons ago - so yes I've inherited a suspicion of Russian intentions Even a teen art sudent rather than protest against the bomb I took the progmatic approach and volunteered to serve with The Royal Observer Corp, studied aircraft recogition, learnt to type so I use a teletype machine to report where the bombs were going off from deep within my underground bunker, with the hope it all blows over....

Just as in an early posting there is no such animal as a terrorist,.. every terrorist is somebody else's freedom fighters or liberator, just so there is no Agression, it's just defence in depth, .. preferably on someone else's land. Perception is everything . The Chinese and the Russians see the USA necklace of global bases as Agression and offensive, the American allies see them as security . When will we see with the others eyes?

 

[oldgroaner]

Todays "true or false" news from the Independent
"
Brexit: UK has already 'agreed in principle' with EU to Norway-style transition
Exclusive: Key figure on the European Parliament's Brexit steering group tells The IndependentUK officials did not object to the plans in meetings.
The UK has already “agreed in principle” to a Norway-style Brexit transition period in which it accepts all EU rules with no power to shape them, a senior figure in Brussels has told The Independent.

A key member of the European Parliament’s Brexit team said British negotiators raised no objections to the plans, which would mean accepting free movement and customs union rules, and falling under the European Court’s jurisdiction.

The suggestion that Theresa May’s team has all but swallowed the transition proposal from Brussels will anger Conservative MPs, who believe it leaves Britain a “vassal state” for some two years after Brexit.

?

 

[oldtom]

Perception is everything. The Chinese and the Russians see the USA necklace of global bases as Agression and offensive, the American allies see them as security . When will we see with the others eyes?

Nicely put 'Danidl' and your point is hugely important.

In a different place and at a different time in our history, a young Scots poet made the same point when he wrote:

O wad some Power the giftie gie us
to see oursels as ithers see us!
It wad frae mony a blunder free us
an foolish notion.

Tom

 

[oldgroaner]

Following on to my last post, assuming it is correct this "vassal State" situation will almost certainly last indefinitely or at least until the penny finally drops among even the slower thinkers that we have backed a loser, and public opinion morphs into a campaign to return to membership, rather laughably for the following reasons

Taking back control
Restoring our Sovereignty.
No more "Unelected EU Bureaucrats"telling us what to do.
They will have to listen to what we want for a change.

Quite hilarious when you think about it.
Nigel Farage will be reforming the UKIP as

United Kingdom Interdependence Party

Historians of the Future will look back and decide Brexit was merely a "Speed Bump" that we approached at twice the highest sensible speed after turning into a Dead End.