Brexit, for once some facts.

tommie

Esteemed Pedelecer
Mar 13, 2013
1,760
600
Co. Down, N. Ireland, U.K.
Ok I dont see steel being smuggled across the channel but textiles and bicycles could. No wonder the EU doesnt want us to leave,aside from our contribution we could be a loose cannon trade wise,especially on the Irish border.
KudosDave
Yes indeed!

I foresee a very lucrative `business opportunity` opening up for myself and Danidl for cross-border trade on the horizon.

It used to be sugar, butter, tea, bacon in olden times but yes we could diversify into ebikes ok :)
 
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Colin....I feel for you,it must be difficult to import Euro priced product....I am lucky that I only have one major product range from the EU and that I have a monopoly on so customers just have to pay the increase.
KudosDave
Thanks :) but in all honesty we're in a similar position really. Bosch equipped eBikes and the rest of the KTM range compete with brands that are all from the EU, so the price rises hit everyone, so its the end consumers we all have to feel sorry for, as its them that are going to suffer the most.

The logic that many "Leave" voters seem to consistently go on about that frustrates me massively is that - the EU will suffer more than us because we buy more from them, than they buy from us.

They don't seem to get that the UK buys from the EU for many reasons, and in most cases will continue to after Brexit, because the UK isn't suddenly going to loose its love of Italian road bikes, or French cheese, or Dutch flowers or ... or ... or ... or, etc etc etc . The EU brands won't suffer, they don't pay the tariff, the UK does. So it'll be the UK that suffers.
 

Kudoscycles

Official Trade Member
Apr 15, 2011
5,566
5,048
www.kudoscycles.com
Yes indeed!

I foresee a very lucrative `business opportunity` opening up for myself and Danidl for cross-border trade on the horizon.

It used to be sugar, butter, tea, bacon in olden times but yes we could diversify into ebikes ok :)
Not e-bikes they only have 6% tariff duty and no anti-dumping duty. You should be importing the Flying Pigeon bikes or Dahon style folders non electric,the Flying Pigeon bikes are $38.00 CKD and really nice Dahon folders,better than the Brompton,are less than $100.00.
At the moment non electric bikes are subject to 48% anti dumping duty plus 10% normal tariff....you could drive the Irish mad and the EU, riding those across the border and thus into mainland Europe by the side door.
If the EU is stupid enough to allow Fox to have a free trade deal China to UK then the UK will be awash with cheap and good chinese bikes. But I am sure if we want a free trade deal with the EU they will make us keep the anti dumping duties.
Dont forget to whistle as you ride across the border,the EU likes whistling.
KudosDave
 

Steb

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jul 15, 2017
328
613
46
london
yes, we have.
It has peaked at 3% and will go down slowly back to 2%.
That is based on the (huge, and wrong) assumption that the pound devalued once following brexit vote and would stabilise at 1.12euro for ever happily after. Not so, it's already down the next rapids(down to 1.09) and - ad nausea - brexit hasn't happened yet. There's niagara falls when may etc all mess that up. Then, having devalued another 30 40 percent that will feed into new inflation. As mortgages and credit go up then it will really be recession time
 
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Kudoscycles

Official Trade Member
Apr 15, 2011
5,566
5,048
www.kudoscycles.com
It was strange that Hammond caved in on staying in the customs union,he agreed with Fox that we should leave on March 2019.
I suspect he agreed because he knows that the EU will not agree to any interim deal to replace it. We only have up to October 2018 because the EU wants 6 months to ratify any deal,by the time Davis and Barnier next get together thats only 12 months away. Hammond knows that Davis does not stand a cat in hells chance of getting an interim customs deal out of the EU.

The decision to leave the customs union means that Ireland, France, Belgium and the Netherlands will have to make big investments in IT systems and lorry parks at their ports to cope with the post-Brexit surge of customs declarations and shipment checks. These are costs that the UK is imposing upon them. Why would those countries agree to an interim customs agreement that requires them to scramble to invest in their ports, simply to reduce costs at the EU border for Britain and to allow Liam Fox to negotiate trade deals with countries outside Europe?

Not to mention the fact that we are still arguing over which bit of UK countryside we are going to concrete over to store Operation Stack,which will be the inevitable result of French customs delays post Brexit .
KudosDave
 
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Kudoscycles

Official Trade Member
Apr 15, 2011
5,566
5,048
www.kudoscycles.com
That is based on the (huge, and wrong) assumption that the pound devalued once following brexit vote and would stabilise at 1.12euro for ever happily after. Not so, it's already down the next rapids(down to 1.09) and - ad nausea - brexit hasn't happened yet. There's niagara falls when may etc all mess that up. Then, having devalued another 30 40 percent that will feed into new inflation. As mortgages and credit go up then it will really be recession time
Do you remember when Soros bet against the £ and caused a currency crash,I think it was Lamont who put up rates to 17% to try to maintain the £,it didnt work and he had to let it float,Soros made a fortune.
The point is that once the BoE starts to increase rates to stabilise the £,the market knows they are in trouble and shorts the £,rates have to go up quickly and hard to have any effect.
All the ingredients are there to have another go.
KudosDave
 

Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
8,611
12,256
73
Ireland
Yes indeed!

I foresee a very lucrative `business opportunity` opening up for myself and Danidl for cross-border trade on the horizon.

It used to be sugar, butter, tea, bacon in olden times but yes we could diversify into ebikes ok :)
.. see I knew you had a streak of goodness in you.
 
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Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
8,611
12,256
73
Ireland
Thanks :) but in all honesty we're in a similar position really. Bosch equipped eBikes and the rest of the KTM range compete with brands that are all from the EU, so the price rises hit everyone, so its the end consumers we all have to feel sorry for, as its them that are going to suffer the most.

The logic that many "Leave" voters seem to consistently go on about that frustrates me massively is that - the EU will suffer more than us because we buy more from them, than they buy from us.

They don't seem to get that the UK buys from the EU for many reasons, and in most cases will continue to after Brexit, because the UK isn't suddenly going to loose its love of Italian road bikes, or French cheese, or Dutch flowers or ... or ... or ... or, etc etc etc . The EU brands won't suffer, they don't pay the tariff, the UK does. So it'll be the UK that suffers.
.. they will suffer to some extent. We in Ireland are already suffering because a number of our contracts for processed foodstuffs eg butter, pizzas for the major UK chains were negotiated in sterling. I can anticipate that the Danes will have the same problem with bacon. So at present we are experiencing a hit. Of course those same exporters will be expecting price hikes when contracts come up for renewal.
What is happening is that these exporters are not idle, they are seeking more lucrative markets inside the EU.
 
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Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
8,611
12,256
73
Ireland
Not e-bikes they only have 6% tariff duty and no anti-dumping duty. You should be importing the Flying Pigeon bikes or Dahon style folders non electric,the Flying Pigeon bikes are $38.00 CKD and really nice Dahon folders,better than the Brompton,are less than $100.00.
At the moment non electric bikes are subject to 48% anti dumping duty plus 10% normal tariff....you could drive the Irish mad and the EU, riding those across the border and thus into mainland Europe by the side door.
If the EU is stupid enough to allow Fox to have a free trade deal China to UK then the UK will be awash with cheap and good chinese bikes. But I am sure if we want a free trade deal with the EU they will make us keep the anti dumping duties.
Dont forget to whistle as you ride across the border,the EU likes whistling.
KudosDave
.. hang on we don't need Tommie to make us mad .. we are daft enough already!!.
Seriously though what you are saying implies a very hard and strict border , and this will be very expensive to police.
 
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oldtom

Esteemed Pedelecer
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oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,461
32,613
80
It gets better every Day
From the independent
"
Government refusing to publish 50 'secret' studies on Brexit impact
Ministers say the studies' findings could jeopardise their EU negotiation positions
The Government has been accused of refusing to publish more than 50 “secret” studies in the impact of Brexit – for fear they could cause embarrassment to ministers.

Brexit minister David Jones confirmed in a letter that the Department for Exiting the European Union had “conducted analysis of over 50 sector of the economy”.

But ministers are so far resisting calls to publish the findings of the investigations in full – arguing that some findings “would undermine the Government’s ability to negotiate the best deal for Britain” were they made public.
It comes after one leaked piece of research by the Department of Health found that Brexit could cause a shortage of more than 40,000 nurses by 2026.



Green Party MEP Molly Scott Cato, who wrote to ministers about the studies, said: “The only reason they wouldn’t publish these studies is because they reveal what they don’t want people to hear: that a hard Brexit will be a disaster for our economy, for our environmental standards and for our workers’
 
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oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,461
32,613
80
Just when you think we have hit rock bottom reputation wise in the wider world
"
Nigel Farage's Brexit campaign to be transformed into £60m Hollywood TV series
'It naturally descends into farce - but they win against all odds - he is then horrified that the British lunatics are sent to help a US reality TV star fight for the presidency,' says source

That should about complete the job of making us a laughing stock
 
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oldtom

Esteemed Pedelecer
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Zlatan

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 26, 2016
8,086
4,290
This is a section lifted from Trade Unions report on EU corruption. Its not the Mail, Express or Telegraph.
"
EU covers up EU corruption


The European Commission has withheld a chapter on EU institutions in a report on corruption.

The original plan was to assess corruption across the member states and within the EU institutions.

However EU home affairs commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom only released details of corruption in member states on Feb 3 in the first bi-annual report around six months later than originally planned.

Malmstrom’s spokesperson Michael Cercone said that the commission had considered assessing EU’s own institutions but said that it would it be difficult to provide an objective self-evaluation because, unlike for member states, there are no independent external reviews the commission could draw on to evaluate its own institutions.

“Nor do we have a lot of academic research on anti-corruption measures within the EU institutions,” he said.

EU auditors have refused to sign off the EU’s annual accounts for nearly two decades because of widespread corruption.

Yet the commission blasted member states for “failing to tackle the problem head on”, claiming that some €120 billion is lost every year.

“We are not doing enough and this is true in all member states,” Ms Malmstrom told reporters without a hint of irony.

TUAEU spokesman Brian Denny said that the commission was ‘beyond satire’ as it covered up abuses in its own institutions while trying to discredit member states.

“This is a surreal tale that Franz Kafka would be proud of, the EU is attacking member states for corruption under a system it created itself particularly under EU public procurement rules,” he said.

Salient point being EU auditors refusing to sign off EU accounts for past 20 years !!!
 

Kudoscycles

Official Trade Member
Apr 15, 2011
5,566
5,048
www.kudoscycles.com
The news tonight also thought it impossible that the EU would agree to a temporary transitional customs union exclusively for the UK.
We are a very arrogant yet naive country,the days that other countries would jump through hoops just because we are named Great Britain are long gone.
Even the news says ....'Britain will tell Europe' ....What might work better is that 'Britain is working together with Europe to sort out a tariff and border deal to the benefit of the U.K. and EU'
Liam Fox is dangerously stupid asking for a temporary customs union just so he can do deals with the rest of the world,why should they?
The government have 50 plus reports that detail life after Brexit but refuse to release them because it would weaken their negotiating hand.....yeh,losing the majority in the house and paying the DUP didn't weaken their hand???
KudosDave
 
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oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,461
32,613
80
This is a section lifted from Trade Unions report on EU corruption. Its not the Mail, Express or Telegraph.
"
EU covers up EU corruption


The European Commission has withheld a chapter on EU institutions in a report on corruption.

The original plan was to assess corruption across the member states and within the EU institutions.

However EU home affairs commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom only released details of corruption in member states on Feb 3 in the first bi-annual report around six months later than originally planned.

Malmstrom’s spokesperson Michael Cercone said that the commission had considered assessing EU’s own institutions but said that it would it be difficult to provide an objective self-evaluation because, unlike for member states, there are no independent external reviews the commission could draw on to evaluate its own institutions.

“Nor do we have a lot of academic research on anti-corruption measures within the EU institutions,” he said.

EU auditors have refused to sign off the EU’s annual accounts for nearly two decades because of widespread corruption.

Yet the commission blasted member states for “failing to tackle the problem head on”, claiming that some €120 billion is lost every year.

“We are not doing enough and this is true in all member states,” Ms Malmstrom told reporters without a hint of irony.

TUAEU spokesman Brian Denny said that the commission was ‘beyond satire’ as it covered up abuses in its own institutions while trying to discredit member states.

“This is a surreal tale that Franz Kafka would be proud of, the EU is attacking member states for corruption under a system it created itself particularly under EU public procurement rules,” he said.

Salient point being EU auditors refusing to sign off EU accounts for past 20 years !!!
Actually some of us are aware of this, but ask yourself this question, is it any different here, except that no one in the Government here has ever shown any intention of looking into the situation re corruption, and they can always find some accountant that can fiddle the figures in a way that Auditors will approve them?
And that applies to sums far in excess of the losses in the EU.

Remember this country is mid way up the league in the world corruption table before trying to paint the kettle black in the case of the EU.

And as a thought to consider, what direction do you imagine for a single moment that corruption in this country is going to go after Brexit?

It is the Golden opportunity the Rip off and Con artists have been longing for, after all why else have they been rooting for it?
 
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Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
20,380
16,877
Southend on Sea
wooshbikes.co.uk
temporary customs union.
I wonder how long it's going to last.
May be longer than this conservative administration?
 

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