Brexit, for once some facts.

[Woosh]

They obviously haven't spoken to

No, they should have! I'll put them right!
I am not surprised, Professor Minford is a lightweight.
However, the market is a much better judge of brexit.
When you consider how much uncertainty brexit has brought to our economy, their judgement is clear: they don't think we've lost the plot.

 

[oldtom]

Election time approaches and these are the leading players........

Tom

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

No, they should have! I'll put them right!
I am not surprised, Professor Minford is a lightweight.
However, the market is a much better judge of brexit.
When you consider how much uncertainty brexit has brought to our economy, their judgement is clear: they don't think we've lost the plot.

Does it not worry you at all, that you might be wrong?

 

[Woosh]

Does it not worry you at all, that you might be wrong?

economics is more a science of probabilities than a strictly logical discipline, so no, I am not worried.
We are detaching ourselves from a grouping in order to find new associations. I don't think brexit is a wrong move because I can see problems with the EU that many remainers would rather ignore and if it turns out that we no longer want brexit then we can go back at a later date.
There is a theory that if you have more choices, the cost is less. Brexit could turn out a cheaper path to growth in the next generation.

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

We are detaching ourselves from a grouping in order to find new associations.

So which trade deal / group do you want to be associated with that is going to be better than the EU?

 

[Woosh]

the EU is a fortress. It is inward looking.
We would be better off looking out for opportunities to trade with fast growing countries besides our current trading partners.
So the first task is to retain as much as possible current on-going trade, then anything new is a bonus. Over time, the new gains are going to exceed the short term loss.

 

[flecc]

No, they should have! I'll put them right!
I am not surprised, Professor Minford is a lightweight.

That's amusing, lucky someone here has an excellent memory.

One of the earlier and strongest exponents of Brexit in this thread repeatedly quoted Minford's backing for Brexit as the example of why it would succeed.

Seems even Minford has completely reversed his view. That alone should be a clear warning.
.

 

[Zlatan]

.. Woosh what can I say you are always the optimist!
For my part I would hope , rather than expect.
1. Labour to realise that were they to act as an opposition, and oppose the Brexit agenda , they might on a pro Europe platform mobilise a significant fraction of the 48% , and form a coalition with the SNP, and lib Dems, and scrap the article 50 . While there is no legal basis for Europe agreeing to this, I cannot see why there would be EU opposition.
2. For this to happen they would need to clearly and honestly explain what they understand as the costs and downsides of the Brexit agenda. This should be an easier sell now that some of the blatant untruths and half truths and costs are being exposed.

I agree with that but don't you think Corbyn would have to change his stance on both Nuclear power and Nuclear deterrent. IMHO he made himself unelectable when he said he would never , ever fire trident. After that it might as well be scrapped,. Yes, I know that's not a popular sentiment on here but voters do see that Trident and such have kept war at bay ( even if that's not case)
Corbyn, no matter what he says on Brexit will ever be pm..

 

[Zlatan]

That's amusing, lucky someone here has an excellent memory.

One of the earlier and strongest exponents of Brexit in this thread repeatedly quoted Minford's backing for Brexit as the example of why it would succeed.

Seems even Minford has completely reversed his view. That alone should be a clear warning.
.

Oh, so now you accept his wisdom ? He was written off as misinformed not long ago.

 

[Woosh]

That's amusing, lucky someone here has an excellent memory.

One of the earlier and strongest exponents of Brexit in this thread repeatedly quoted Minford's backing for Brexit as the example of why it would succeed.

Seems even Minford has completely reversed his view. That alone should be a clear warning.
.

The brexit economic arguments are often based on flimsy modelling and the remain side tried too hard picking out simple weaknesses like the faulty assumption that supplies are always cheaper outside the EU. We can see that is not true because it does not take into account the higher productivity of EU companies, lower cost of transactions, higher quality of goods and in the case of e-bikes where the market in the EU is more sensitive to quality.
With hindsight, remain should have accepted that brexit won't necessarily mean that we are going to be worse off but there is a short term cost, then the argument would have been better understood and easier to accept.

 

[flecc]

Oh, so now you accept his wisdom ? He was written off as misinformed not long ago.

No, he's shown no wisdom. I accept that, as I maintained earlier, Minford is clearly an unreliable guide to Brexit prospects. His change of mind is like Boris Johnson now campaigning to stay in the EU.
.

 

[Zlatan]

Agreed, and Mark Carnt make his mind up becoming pro leave...( Which he was originally, didn't realise BJ had turned ??!!)

 

[Zlatan]

It is all quite a fiasco, whoever and whatever you agree with.
I still think its this process doing the damage. Either leave or stay , in most walks of life indecision is the danger.
PS,I,m away for 3 weeks as of tonight, internet reception is fairly poor mid Atlantic, so when I come back can we have this all sorted, arguing , insults and sulking all stopped...country doing well and all hunky dory.. Not much to ask in my absence. ???!!! ( Should be easier??)

 

[Deleted member 4366]

I don't know what all you guys have to discuss. It won't make a scrap of difference to us whether we're in or out. Whatever happens, the money speculators are having a field day/week/month/years at our expense.

Anybody can get hold of any half-baked statistics to justify their argument. The actual problems we face go far deeper than whether we should be in EEC or not. Since joining the EEC, the national debt has gone up by 1.7 trillion pounds. At some point it has to be paid back. When that time comes, no doubt they''ll blame it on brexit or immigrants.

 

[Woosh]

Since joining the EEC, the national debt has gone up by 1.7 trillion pounds. At some point it has to be paid back. When that time comes, no doubt they''ll blame it on brexit or immigrants.

No, we don't have to pay it back - we only need to grow our economy to keep the percentage in the average, for the EU members, that is 87%.
What makes us different is that we rely on banking to make money, we therefore have much higher external liabilities per capita than most EU members, just behind Luxembourg and Sweden.

 

[flecc]

didn't realise BJ had turned ??!!)

I should have said "would be like", he isn't actually campaigning. However he clearly showed he had never been behind leave when the unexpected result came in, he hadn't expected to win and it obviously messed up plans. It also dumped him with a job he certainly didn't want.
.

 

[Danidl]

Labour can't make a strong case for remain.
Brexit means self belief and self-determination to a lot of people. Call them intuitive truths if you like, but they can't be dismissed as untruths or post-truths.
The right wing press has cottoned very early on the fact that it's counter-productive to insult the intelligence of your opponents. Nothing makes people going out to vote against you more than calling them idiots which the remain press did and still do abundantly even now.

....The arguements about self belief etc are an internal emotion and are not amenable to external rational debate, I have referred to this before . Whether these are self evident truths .. I will sidestep. If there was such confidence in this group why should they not want to compete on the larger stage? The EU is that larger stage.
.. in the case of the second point I fully agree with you, the failure of the pro EU remainer group, including those from out side the UK , was condescending. There was an assumption that the entire enterprise was so far off beam, that it was idiotic, and was dismissed as such. The right ring press in the aftermath of the referendum were not particularly conciliatory, with terms Iike remoaner and worse.
I do not think that those who voted exit were either stupid, idiotic, xenophobic, but I do think that they were deluded, lied to, and pandered to, and dare I say ignorant .
That they were ignorant is fully the responsibility of the Pro EU supporters . Now that there is to be a rerun in the form of a general election, the pro EU group have a responsibility to make their message clear. To make at mistake once is forgivable, to make the same one twice is folly.

 

[Woosh]

I do think that they were deluded, lied to, and pandered to, and dare I say ignorant .

are you thinking that they shouldn't be allowed to vote?
Remain failed to persuade enough people because they homed on to the message on the red bus. It was baiting because we all knew that was the gross figure and remain fell for it. Now who is the idiot?

 

[Danidl]

are you thinking that they shouldn't be allowed to vote?
Remain failed to persuade enough people because they homed on to the message on the red bus. It was baiting because we all knew that was the gross figure and remain fell for it. Now who is the idiot?

.. no.. as citizens they are entitled to and in my opinion should vote . However they as citizens have also have a responsibility to inform themselves.

The message on the red bus was a lie. , Using my previous definition. The failure of the remain lobby was that they were incoherent and complacent. They do not have that as an excuse this time around.

 

[Zlatan]

....The arguements about self belief etc are an internal emotion and are not amenable to external rational debate, I have referred to this before . Whether these are self evident truths .. I will sidestep. If there was such confidence in this group why should they not want to compete on the larger stage? The EU is that larger stage.
.. in the case of the second point I fully agree with you, the failure of the pro EU remainer group, including those from out side the UK , was condescending. There was an assumption that the entire enterprise was so far off beam, that it was idiotic, and was dismissed as such. The right ring press in the aftermath of the referendum were not particularly conciliatory, with terms Iike remoaner and worse.
I do not think that those who voted exit were either stupid, idiotic, xenophobic, but I do think that they were deluded, lied to, and pandered to, and dare I say ignorant .
That they were ignorant is fully the responsibility of the Pro EU supporters . Now that there is to be a rerun in the form of a general election, the pro EU group have a responsibility to make their message clear. To make at mistake once is forgivable, to make the same one twice is folly.

Perhaps the ignorance is with both sides, neither can see the benefit of the opposing arguments.
Remainers seem unable to accept the faults within EU or benefits of leaving.
I cant see benefit of remaining and disagree with the many faults levelled at our government. ( well not all)
Yes many will think decision was wrong either way. If we don't leave,I,d see it as a massive missed opportunity. If we do , remainers see it as catastrophic. Unfortunately we cant do both. But, if this GE shows majority really do want to stay...so be it.
It seems neither side will change but that's why we vote. The opinions with largest majority will form next government.
The big problem is the only party offering the opinions remainers want to hear is Lib Dems and Tony Blair...Labour have proved themselves completely useless throughout and Lib Dems are almost unelectable, especially so with Tony Blair singing from their hymn sheet.( And Tim Farron certainly isn't doing himself favours with current bigotry claims going unanswered)
To be fair I do see that many remainer's opinions are not being represented???
Are we witnessing the death of labour movement?
Suppose we will all know more in a few weeks when labour have completed their manifesto. Pretty obvious what's going in others.