Brexit, for once some facts.

[Woosh]

Labour cannot hope to win this general election.
The best they can do is to take a proper and clear position on brexit, then accuse Mrs May of having no strategy.
Labour should come out for Customs Union and immigration control of unskilled/low skilled EU workers. That will help to retain their seats in the North of England and London.

 

[flecc]

I'd like to vote Lib Dem, but my constituency is one of the most marginal with only 165 vote majority for Conservative last time. It constantly yo-yos between Conservative and Labour at elections.

Therefore I'll be voting Labour to try to eject the obsequious Tory creep Gavin Barwell from his seat in the house.
.

 

[oldgroaner]

I'd like to vote Lib Dem, but my constituency is one of the most marginal with only 165 vote majority for Conservative last time. It constantly yo-yos between Conservative and Labour at elections.

Therefore I'll be voting Labour to try to eject the obsequious Tory creep Gavin Barwell from his seat in the house.
.

A wise decision flecc!

 

[Kudoscycles]

Yes, I will also be voting LibDem. The thing that worries me is going into another coalition with the Tories. I really would not want to see that happen & hope that Tim Farron has learned from Clegg's mistakes.

I cannot see the Liberals joining the Tories,the first thing that Farron will ask for is staying in the single market and maybe a second referendum....the Rees Moggs and IDS would kill May if she explored either of those options and the Liberals would be powerful only if supported by the remainers,that would effectively be the end of Brexit.
But Tim Farron doesnt come over as cunning like Witch May....I am starting to meet a lot of people who dont trust May and openly hate her.
This election is effectively a second referendum,the polls suggest that she will win a landslide,she would if it were a normal Tory v Labour battle but this is really still a Leave v Remain battle. The Liberals wont get power but there are many (including me) who will vote tactically to stop May having a larger majority. There only needs a Brexit bombshell in the next few weeks for May to get a shock result and dont forget the EU dont want us to leave,I am sure there are plenty of EU revelations that could make a lot of voters stop and think,this time no excuse that we didnt know the effects of Brexit.
KudosDave

 

[Danidl]

I cannot see the Liberals joining the Tories,the first thing that Farron will ask for is staying in the single market and maybe a second referendum....the Rees Moggs and IDS would kill May if she explored either of those options and the Liberals would be powerful only if supported by the remainers,that would effectively be the end of Brexit.
But Tim Farron doesnt come over as cunning like Witch May....I am starting to meet a lot of people who dont trust May and openly hate her.
This election is effectively a second referendum,the polls suggest that she will win a landslide,she would if it were a normal Tory v Labour battle but this is really still a Leave v Remain battle. The Liberals wont get power but there are many (including me) who will vote tactically to stop May having a larger majority. There only needs a Brexit bombshell in the next few weeks for May to get a shock result and dont forget the EU dont want us to leave,I am sure there are plenty of EU revelations that could make a lot of voters stop and think,this time no excuse that we didnt know the effects of Brexit.
KudosDave

.. I cannot use the agree button, because I don't want to comment on the internal politics or personalities, but I want to agree with the proposition that this is functionally a Brexit referendum. I also agree with the proposition that a Brexit EU related bombshell could easily derail the strategy adopted in calling for this election.

 

[flecc]

I also agree with the proposition that a Brexit EU related bombshell could easily derail the strategy adopted in calling for this election.

And the EU is more than clever enough to have already realised this. It's in their interests to launch suitable well timed shock announcements.

Even if they remain impartial, any of the leaders of the 27 other countries might well do their own thing in this respect, to throw a spanner in the works.

The times get ever more interesting.
.

 

[oldgroaner]

And the EU is more than clever enough to have already realised this. It's in their interests to launch suitable well timed shock announcements.

Even if they remain impartial, any of the leaders of the 27 other countries might well do their own thing in this respect, to throw a spanner in the works.

The times get ever more interesting.
.

This is intended as a comic diversion, but I wonder if Putin is considering having his Hackers add their two pennorth to the "facts" that will emerge before the election?
From his point of view such a situation must offer a tempting, (and dare I say it in a country where Government officials customarily on purpose/accidentally leave documents on a train for the press to copy)
A relatively easy target at that!
The question then is in the hope of assisting (or knobbling) which side, and for what strategic reason?
After all he might consider we were doing fine at preventing the EU from integrating and having a standing army, while members.
Logically he can hardly be expected to see us as a serious military threat, with a Navy that can't put to sea, a tiny Air Force and an overextended Army.
Plus of course Trident, a system of Disproven Accuracy as a last resort defence.

And here's an amusing anecdote
These wonderfully stealthy submarines are so stealthy at times they collide with Allied boats of the same class!
Lets see now, not only did they manage to do this in the vast emptiness of the Attlantic ocean, but they didn't even realise at the time what they had run into.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Vanguard_and_Le_Triomphant_submarine_collision.

This Stealth thing seems to be a bit of a disadvantage at times when you cant detect something weighing 14,500 tons coming at you while under way.
Hopefully should the need arise the detection of Russia will work out easier than say mistakenly targetting the USA (Oh, that did happen didn't it?)

I have to say that Putin had a lucky escape there as he would have suffered a hernia had he known at the time of this accident that the defence of both ourselves and France had been jeapordized by such lousy navigation!

We can all rest easy in our beds except for the nagging thought
Both these vessels collided with a friendly vessel that wasn't in the business of hunting them.
What chance would they have against someone who was?
Have they no defensive protection even against accidentally running into large moving objects?

 

[oldtom]

Which side is Hammond playing for? He seems to be doing a good job of p'ing off the self-employed and he's likely to cause millions of others to re-think their allegiance if he starts raising income tax for the ordinary PAYE employees while doing zilch to tackle the real tax cheats who avoid possibly as much as several billions of pounds in various taxes annually due to the exchequer. Those are his friends, of course, and no doubt he will be offered a 'nice little earner' when he packs up, just like his predecessor, if he keeps big business sweet.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39671163

Tom

 

[homemoz]

I cannot see the Liberals joining the Tories,the first thing that Farron will ask for is staying in the single market and maybe a second referendum....the Rees Moggs and IDS would kill May if she explored either of those options and the Liberals would be powerful only if supported by the remainers,that would effectively be the end of Brexit.
But Tim Farron doesnt come over as cunning like Witch May....I am starting to meet a lot of people who dont trust May and openly hate her.
This election is effectively a second referendum,the polls suggest that she will win a landslide,she would if it were a normal Tory v Labour battle but this is really still a Leave v Remain battle. The Liberals wont get power but there are many (including me) who will vote tactically to stop May having a larger majority. There only needs a Brexit bombshell in the next few weeks for May to get a shock result and dont forget the EU dont want us to leave,I am sure there are plenty of EU revelations that could make a lot of voters stop and think,this time no excuse that we didnt know the effects of Brexit.
KudosDave

According to the Independent, Tim Farron refused to rule out a coalition with the Tories when asked directly. I suppose anything is possible but after the last time it would need to be very well played. In some ways the present situation can be directly attributed to the decimation of the Lib Dems at the the last election i.e. no restraining force on the Tories. Having said that, if this is really a Brexit election (and what else could it be, despite the best efforts of Labour), LibDem is really the only plausible opposition. A lot will depend on which set of voters have the most motivation & how co-ordinated the opposition to the Theresa May govt is. My own view is that opinions haven't really changed since the referendum on either side. I guess we will see in June. Although this forum has focused more on economics, I see the Brexit vote as primarily about preceived identity (or lack of) and gaining a renewed sense of control. I'm not sure that economic uncertainty would shake the conviction of many Brexit voters. There has to be a positive shift in attitude towards the EU & I'm not at all sure how this would come about. I think it was on "The ideas that make us" this week that the idea of "anywhere's" and "somewhere's" (David Goodhart) came up to describe the new tribal divisions as a result of globalisation. If the idea has credibility then there is no one fits all solution and a binary decision like the Brexit vote makes no sense at all - however, I guess we all knew that anyhow! A solution has to address the needs of both tribes & those in the middle as well. Good luck to whoever eventually has the task.
On a different note, just wanted to say that I tend not to put likes or dislikes or whatever on posts. Just never felt that comfortable with it & I guess I'm a bit lazy as well. It doesn't mean to say that I haven't read and appreciated (or otherwise) the posts that people have made.

 

[Jimod]

....I am starting to meet a lot of people who dont trust May and openly hate her.

Come up here Dave. I'll show you a few people who don't trust Mrs May. I'll show you a few who don't like ANY Tory.

 

[Woosh]

A lot will depend on which set of voters have the most motivation & how co-ordinated the opposition to the Theresa May govt is.

there are 16 million voters who are still to be convinced to go out to vote.

 

[oldgroaner]

there are 16 million voters who are still to be convinced to go out to vote.

I have a cunning plan said Baldrick
Get the Mobile phone companies and the broadcasters to turn off all networks and broadcasts,
And provide....wait for it......
Wi fi hotspots allowing two things at every Polling booth.
Texting and Facebook
That would certainly bring the Teenagers (and a lot more out)
And as a further thought, put the local Electoral candidates in the Stocks outside and provide fruit, veg and eggs to throw.
A sort of Audience Participation Exit poll
That should bring in the rest.
Next problem please.

 

[oldgroaner]

From the Express
"
Overseas Britons WILL NOT get a vote in Theresa May’s snap election despite Tory pledge
UP TO three million Brits living abroad will be denied a vote despite a Conservative pledge to give foreign nationals votes for life."

Promises? they are more of , well expressions of preference really, like the Referendum, not legally binding.
Even though the Tories pledged to allow them
No, not legally binding at all.

 

[oldgroaner]

The big question is just how uch trust can anyone put in the word of Mrs May? she has changed her mind so often I'm surprised the Bookmakers aren't offering odds on her deciding to cancel Brexit altogether.

 

[tillson]

there are 16 million voters who are still to be convinced to go out to vote.

This is an important and significant factor. For the first time in my life, I am seriously considering not voting. Our politicians have achieved a new low in blandness, lack of identity and credibility. I literally do not see any political party as being worthy of receiving a vote.

If I do vote, which is unlikely, I think it will be Lib Dems, which will be another first for me.

 

[homemoz]

In today's Times - tactical voting. Maybe with social media as a driver, it could work?
https://www.tactical2017.com/

 

[Kudoscycles]

This is an important and significant factor. For the first time in my life, I am seriously considering not voting. Our politicians have achieved a new low in blandness, lack of identity and credibility. I literally do not see any political party as being worthy of receiving a vote.

If I do vote, which is unlikely, I think it will be Lib Dems, which will be another first for me.

I totally agree,I don't trust any of the current potential PM's to run our country. Corbyn cannot seem to make a decision that would suggest he is PM material,Farron looks a bit lightweight and May I just don't trust....she started her time by saying that she was going to unify both parliament and the country,I don't think she has achieved either.
I will vote Liberal,absolute first for me,most of my close family intend doing the same....at least the Liberals are clear in their manifesto,they want to stay in the single market and ideally have a second referendum.
Also I want May to be hurt and trim her meglamaniac arrogance....the look on her face when Yvette Cooper had the balls to point out her failings and U-turns was Hitlerish,this lady with a big majority will be a dictator.
Interesting that many of her supporting spin doctors have quit their posts,the arguments inside Cabinet must be awesome. I think May made this election decision entirely on her own,notice how close Tories are not even speaking in support of her.
KudosDave

 

[Kudoscycles]

Trump seems to say what the current visitor wants to hear. Remember when May met Trump and he said that UK was doing well with Brexit and May was at the head of the queue for a trade deal.
Merkel is with Trump today and Trump has told her that he would put the EU in front of the U.K. for a trade deal.
I just cannot understand why the Tories want to break away from the triple pension lock and break from Cameron's no tax pledges just before a GE,does May want to lose this election? Or maybe lose her majority?
If Corbyn had any political savvy he should be using these U-turns of Mays government to gain politically,but he is just not a politician.
See the tactical voting advice mentioned above.
KudosDave

 

[Woosh]

just cannot understand why the Tories want to break away from the triple pension lock and break from Cameron's no tax pledges just before a GE

She is totally convinced that she will be again PM and the economy will be hit hard by inflation and low growth in the next 5 years.
Her only other choice is to double borrowing to compensate.

 

[tillson]

Trump seems to say what the current visitor wants to hear. Remember when May met Trump and he said that UK was doing well with Brexit and May was at the head of the queue for a trade deal.
Merkel is with Trump today and Trump has told her that he would put the EU in front of the U.K. for a trade deal.
I just cannot understand why the Tories want to break away from the triple pension lock and break from Cameron's no tax pledges just before a GE,does May want to lose this election? Or maybe lose her majority?
If Corbyn had any political savvy he should be using these U-turns of Mays government to gain politically,but he is just not a politician.
See the tactical voting advice mentioned above.
KudosDave

I thought exactly the same regarding the Tories change of stance on Tax and pensions. Why announce things, which are bound to be unappealing to their core voters, in the run up to an election? Add to this, nearly half the country does not want what she is stating she will deliver, a hard BREXIT. Where is she going with this? Does she want a way out whilst retaining power in the form of leading a coalition?

I have always harboured a special kind of loathing for Tresemme and never trusted her. She was never pro BREXIT and only spoke in support of remain prior to the referendum, so what has changed her view so dramatically? I think that the only thing she craves is power and will gravitate towards whatever feeds that particular need. If she achieves a large majority, she will be very dangerous and that's why I'm leaning towards the Lib Dems in the hope that we achieve a coalition government. Someone needs to keep that dog on a short leash, because if she is unleashed in June, she will savage whatever stands in her way.