Yes, you do!
Ok, I do as well, but I'm probably just about to buy a second 4 x 4, one can never have too many and this one will be even bigger.
Cue concerted groans from cyclists.
.
Brexit, for once some facts.
- Thread starter flecc
- Start date
Ok, I do as well, but I'm probably just about to buy a second 4 x 4, one can never have too many and this one will be even bigger.
Cue concerted groans from cyclists.
.
I do own an electric bike, but sadly it's only done a few miles in the last 12 months. I moved jobs in February 2016 and it's too far to cycle to work now.
The time I do spend cycling is on my road bike these days, but I suppose when age catches up wit me, the ebike will be used again, if it still works.
You aren't alone in this, my riding has almost disappeared. I've always been a fair weather rider and my fine weather time these days is spent in connection with the nature reserve I work in.
.
wouldn't it be better to proceed two parallel threads at the same time like the UK suggested? after all, the uncertainly affects the UK and EU companies to the same extend.
If the result is the same, no deal until all the items have been agreed, then I find the EU's insistence on 'sufficient progress' on the divorce front before talking trade bad posturing.
Amusing comment about the forthcoming negotiations from EU President Donald Tusk:
"The EU will not adopt a punitive approach towards the UK, Brexit is punitive enough already".
.
"The EU will not adopt a punitive approach towards the UK, Brexit is punitive enough already".
.
soon enough, the EU will find that brexit is equally 'punishing' for the EU.
If the EU gives a good deal to the UK on the basis of common interest, then I bet Ireland will be next to leave. If it doesn't, then we rake in more import duties than the other way round and perhaps we'd buy more Korean and Japanese cars and electronics.
If the EU gives a good deal to the UK on the basis of common interest, then I bet Ireland will be next to leave. If it doesn't, then we rake in more import duties than the other way round and perhaps we'd buy more Korean and Japanese cars and electronics.
Donald Tusk has today spoken of an eased arrangement that means trade talks can proceed once some of the most urgent issues are settled, such as the right to remain of EU citizens in other countries.
.
It cannot be, since our positions are not far from equal. That means the punishment we suffer is all ours, but the punishment the EU suffers is divided by 27.
Even their worst affected, Germany, has already shown in 2008/9 that it can shrug off the loss and has also said as much.
The pain will primarily be ours.
.
Last edited:
As Flecc has said, this logic has been repeated over and over again for months, but doesn't make any sense.
These are the two key facts.
- What those exports are as a proportion of all exports—by this measure about 46% of the UK’s exports go to other EU countries, while somewhere between 8-17% of exports from other EU countries go to the UK (depending on how you measure it).
- The value of that trade to the UK and other EU countries’ economies—exports to the rest of the EU are worth about 13% of the UK’s economy, and exports from other EU countries to the UK are worth about 3-4% of the value of those countries’ economies taken as a whole.
Also, its worth pointing out that the EU can look internally within the 27 to replace the trade they might loose, however I don't think they'll loose any because even if we have to pay more, we're simply not going to start buying from anyone else, because we like premium Euro made goods.
So all that will happen is the 46% of exports that we currently export to EU will suddenly not be competing on a level playing field, so EU customers will be best buying from EU, not UK.
So our imports will cost more and our exports will be less competitive...
Can anyone show me how this is a positive?
You could apply the same logic the other way round: and reversely, British made goods will be more expensive and the continentals will simply pay a little more.
Nobody wins in restricting trade. The EU is more worried about losing face than economic consequences for their members.
But of those 27, 16 countries take money out of the EU, with the UK being the second largest contributor. When the UK has gone and with it the contributions, that leaves only four of the remaining countries contributing in excess of a billion Euros per year. Greece, Poland, Spain and Portugal suck 18.5 Billion Euros out of the EU per year alone. I can't see this raising many smiles in Germany, France Holland and Italy.
Add to this that the UK imports a significant amount of goods from within the EU and the potential for pain is not exclusively ours.
It was this I was posting about, trade, I should have made that clear.
In trade terms we have about the same total suffering as all the 27 together, clearly far more painful for us.
In EU budgetary terms, of course they will suffer the differential between our contribution level and what we receive in return.
.
.
So lets look at your point.
UK goods going to be more expensive in the EU, so either
a) the EU customers will buy from an EU supplier, so the UK business will loose out.
or
b) the UK supplier will think their EU market is bigger than the UK market and will move to the EU, and simply sell back into the UK, as the better option.
Conversely
EU goods, that will be more expensive in the UK.
what are the UK consumers options?
Hope that the UK negiotiates a better trade deal with the rest of the world as a small market than the EU did as a large market?
I don't see how you can think we hold any cards on trade.
we have seen b ( the UK supplier will think their EU market is bigger than the UK market and will move to the EU, and simply sell back into the UK, as the better option.) happens already and we will see some more in two years when the uncertainly has been lifted.
This said, the picture for the EU is not rosy either in case that the deal is not very good. Reciprocal tariffs will be imposed.
The situation in the UK will improve over time much faster than most remainers would like to think.
The UK remains an attractive market for the EU in the same way the EU is to us. After a while, a better FTA will be achieved. The speed of this realization is of course entirely of the EU choosing but make no mistake, brexit does not sink our economy. The range of effect is about +2%/-2% on tax revenue.
I think we have seen that with the devaluation of the Pound.
This said, the picture for the EU is not rosy either in case that the deal is not very good. Reciprocal tariffs will be imposed.
The situation in the UK will improve over time much faster than most remainers would like to think.
The UK remains an attractive market for the EU in the same way the EU is to us. After a while, a better FTA will be achieved. The speed of this realization is of course entirely of the EU choosing but make no mistake, brexit does not sink our economy. The range of effect is about +2%/-2% on tax revenue.
Yes indeed, at home I have a cheapo Viking Eco stepper, and here behind the caravan a Sparticle Converted Brompton I Shall be going down the hill into Whitby shortly on