Brexit, for once some facts.

derf

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Tillson...Do you really think the people of Richmond Park are dumb? The area probably has more graduates than anywhere else in the UK.
This was a protest vote against Theresa May and the direction that she is taking Brexit,Davis is already having to soften his stance away from a hard Brexit.
It is ironic that hard Brexit leavers tend to come from poorly educated constituencies. The referendum vote was ,by some voters,a protest vote because they are not being listened to,some of the 52% vote. Richmond Park is the 48% now feeling they have a voice.
Look at the Remain/Leave votes in other constituencies,there are a large number of seats that if the voters voted anti Brexit would go to Liberal. Even my local constituency would for the first time go away from Tory.
Those areas that voted hard Brexit tend to be mainly in Labour seats.
There were some 30% Tory voters in this by-election who admitted that they voted Liberal,I must say that if Theresa May intends to take us out of the Single Market I would also vote Liberal.
Sarah Olney put her head above the parapet and didn't fudge any questions,she said she now has a mandate to vote down Article 50.....most MP's have said that they won't vote against Article 50 but reserved to question the form. I think this by-election will give those MP's the confidence to vote with their heads and also vote against Article 50.
The referendum was only advisory,the split was only 4%,Theresa May must now realise that the 48% are not dead,they will raise their voice at every opportunity,May must be very nervous as to how to proceed on Brexit.
The EU negotiators have noted this result,they must realise that there is still a big anti-Brexit vote in the UK that they can explore in negotiations.
Good result for Remainers,from June 24 I have always taken the view that Brexit won't happen.
KudosDave
Davis' softening stance left me with mixed feelings. with the pound's devaluation, boris saying immigrants are welcome, it all suddenly feels very anti-climactic, pre-determined (may and Boris's little expedient exercise in playing with the masses was always going to end in a u-turn) . as if I should have recognised brexit all along as an uninformed bout of populist intoxication, as if I had - for some silly reason - chose to get involved in a xenophobic argument with an unpleasant drunk outside a pub
 
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tillson

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May 29, 2008
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This is not a dumb area, they were well aware that their very real anti-aircraft noise feelings would best expressed by voting for the candidate who stood on that. They weren't fooled by the Lib-Dem candidate's policy addition to exploit that.

You believe as you will, but this result has shaken the government which had been certain Zac would win. They are also aware of the very real national swing away from Brexit following so many betrayals and losses such as:

No £350 million per week for the NHS, instead a demand that the NHS substantially cuts its budget.

The several confirmations that large scale immigration will continue.

The admission that we might yet pay into the EU for access to the market.

The crash in the £ value and the resulting 10% to 20% price rises that are appearing, with strong indications of more to follow.

I could well see the government trying to escape its dilemma with a Brexit so soft that there's no real change, while selling it with propaganda as much harder.

Only the most dedicated Brexiters would be very angry about that, and there's not enough of them to bother anyone.
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flecc, if you go into a room containing 10 people, 7 of whom don't want BREXIT, and ask them whether they would like BREXIT, or to remain in the EU, the majority will tell you that they want to remain in the EU. That is all that has happened in Richmond. If you ask all the people in all the rooms in the house, as we did last June, the story is different, you will be told by the majority that they want BREXIT. The by-election adds nothing new and it changes even less.
 

tillson

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This is not a dumb area, they were well aware that their very real anti-aircraft noise feelings would best expressed by voting for the candidate who stood on that. They weren't fooled by the Lib-Dem candidate's policy addition to exploit that.

You believe as you will, but this result has shaken the government which had been certain Zac would win. They are also aware of the very real national swing away from Brexit following so many betrayals and losses such as:

No £350 million per week for the NHS, instead a demand that the NHS substantially cuts its budget.

The several confirmations that large scale immigration will continue.

The admission that we might yet pay into the EU for access to the market.

The crash in the £ value and the resulting 10% to 20% price rises that are appearing, with strong indications of more to follow.

I could well see the government trying to escape its dilemma with a Brexit so soft that there's no real change, while selling it with propaganda as much harder.

Only the most dedicated Brexiters would be very angry about that, and there's not enough of them to bother anyone.
.
See #7464
 

derf

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This is Sarah Olney, the representative of the policy-free, laughable demo-rat party, who ousted Zak (I'm not as thick as I look) Goldsmith from his parliamentary seat after he relinquished it in protest about something most folks can't even remember.

The pic on the left is the brand-new MP for Richmond Park and that on the right is Shergar, played by an actor......I think I have them the right way round.....not that it will make a great deal of difference to the good folk of SW London!

View attachment 16613 View attachment 16612

I may have been a little too kind to Zak in my description as, on reflection, he IS as thick as he looks! Multi-millionaires can do these things and I don't suppose he needed the part-time job in SW1 to make ends meet anyway.

Tom
well, no, you see once I get over the gag reflex of her being a politician; and the bilious feelings as I look at her and her entourage's bright smiles; I actually find her kind of hot, in a kind of toothy pornographic way
 

Zlatan

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Nov 26, 2016
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I,m not claiming somewhere in eu bureaucracy there isn't a wish to redistribute wealth throughout EU and given a few thousand years the amounts they spend might work.
But the entire policy is for lower paid to go to areas ,in theory, lacking in workforce. This intrinsically is unfair,it breaks up families and causes dissent at both ends. Why not move real investment ...because such as us, ( UK) Germany, France, Luxembourg would seriously lose out and suffer a decline in standards. The eu pays lip service to its principles and policies.
In my City 10 years ago there was a flourishing car cleaning trade and valeting service.
In last 5 years we have been inundated with east Europeans willing to work unbelievably hard . The excess of competition within them has now created situation that for £10 ( yes 10) you can have a car washed, polished ,waxed and valeted. 4 young men spend 15 minutes on car, 2 on outside,2 on in . They do a superb job. That's put every mechanical car cleaning machine out of business. They are willing to work in any weather for what must work out at £3 an hour ( after rent of premises, chemicals,power, water etc) These capable blokes are showing resolve and initiative but are being exploited. They should be building cars, trains, planes or something developing their own economies / countries and not working for next to nothing in UK. Free movement is not a blessing its a curse...for both recipient country and country of origin.
If EU really worked and was fair those lads wouldn't need to leave families and friends to earn £3 an hour. They,d have employment at home.

Its fine been an idealist sat I a nice house with a decent living, but reality is the developed areas of eu are taking advantage of underprivileged, but seem to be able to justify it on some moral ground.
 
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derf

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well, no, you see once I get over the gag reflex of her being a politician; and the bilious feelings as I look at her and her entourage's bright smiles; I actually find her kind of hot, in a kind of toothy pornographic way
sometimes I think brexit has a lot to do with repression. it is OK to find woman attractive, tillson. and as peter cook would point out if he were alive, label ones experience in whatever way one likes. that doesn't reflect on the woman in question. we do not all have to console ourselves with the kind of long distance longing you nurse for ms sturgeon.
 
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Croxden

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I do find critiquing people by their looks somewhat offensive, I wish it would stop. There is more than enough to have a go at, it's not a beauty contest.
 

oldtom

Esteemed Pedelecer
I do find critiquing people by their looks somewhat offensive, I wish it would stop. There is more than enough to have a go at, it's not a beauty contest.
Sorry old chap, I disagree for the simple reason that politicians have always been fair game in that regard. Cartoonists, stand-up comics, Shakespeare, old-time music hall comedians, satirists and lampooners have all traded heavily on the political class and even the politicians know that it goes with the territory.

Tom
 
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anotherkiwi

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Jan 26, 2015
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Kiwi
I,m not claiming somewhere in eu bureaucracy there isn't a wish to redistribute wealth throughout EU and given a few thousand years the amounts they spend might work.
But the entire policy is for lower paid to go to areas of in theory lacking in workforce. This intrinsically is unfair, I breaks up families and causes disent at both ends. Why not move real investment ...because such as us, ( UK) Germany, France, Luxembourg would seriously lose out and suffer decline in standards. Theei pays lip service to its principled and policies.
In my City 10 years ago there was a flourishing car cleaning trade and Valet service.
In last 5 years we have been inundated with east Eyropeans
I will continue with the story of my Moldavian neighbour (in Moldava unemployment is 4% compared to France's 10%):

His employer is Basque. The Basque people are proud of their country and heritage and relatively hostile to outsiders (coming from a rugby nation helps counter that hostility in my case). So this Basque restaurant owner really wanted to give the job available to one of the local young people but he couldn't find one willing to work hard enough and within restaurant hours!

He has to pay his employees at least the minimum wage which in the hotel/restaurant sector is 9.67 € an hour so isn't hiring cheaper labour than he can find locally.

The motivation of these people is elsewhere, in the case of Moldava, corruption and general bad behaviour of the ruling class is a large factor for dissatisfaction.

P.S. My neighbour worked so hard and well he is now chef's assistant...
 
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Zlatan

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Nice Story Kiwi but your point ?

By the way we can now get house decorated at £50 a room. We were paying more than that 20 years ago. Its great if you need your house painting and have a job but what about the decorators competing with folk working for £3 an hour...they sign on !!
It all becomes a vicious circle creating wider gap between socio economic groups at home and between rich and poor countries within EU. Luxembourg gets richer every year ( has done for past 12 years) Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland and now Eastern Bloc countries poorer..
But yet all the socially minded , justice seeking people demand free movement of labour, which for the whole of Europe should be stopped . The free movement of investment would soon move to deprived areas...as it is there is no need. Build in best areas to suit executives and tax incentives( Luxembourg biggest offender) and labour will come. Its wrong.
And remainers defend it ? Its quite bizarre..
 

anotherkiwi

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My point is the people from the eastern countries have many reasons for leaving and looking for work in the west. Money is one but it isn't the only one, neither is unemployment rates in their home country in my example.

If you have people working in the UK for £3 an hour and taking work from English craftsmen the problem is UK legislation or enforcement of labour rules (you have those?). My guess is that the migrants would much prefer working for a decent "living" wage. There was a period in France where there were Portuguese or Polish labourers working massively on building sites and being paid cash in hand. The social security inspectors cracked down and it has become much less common. There are still quite a few Polish painter/decorators in Paris I understand who get contracts by recommendation by previous private clients.

I live on a border, Spanish plumbers, electricians you name it cross the border every day to work here. There are still French electricians, plumbers etc. in business here, their rates have changed to reflect competition that is all.
 
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Kudoscycles

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Apr 15, 2011
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These problems are all generated from Cameron's stupid vote...he thought he would win so didnt put much thought into the maths or plan if he should lose...
Remainers had the simple choice,they wanted to remain and pretty much accept the situation pre June 23.I suspect most of them havent changed their vote or view even now.
Leavers were more complex,they voted Leave for many reasons....
1. Fed up with their lifestyle/prospects/income,they considered that Westminster had ignored them,Osborne's northern powerhouse was a damp squib,maybe 30%
2. Control of immigration,maybe 50%
3. Repatriation of our laws,maybe 5%
4. Just fancied a change,felt trade outside would be better,wanted it like the good old days,nothing better to do that day,Boris's £350 million to the NHS...maybe 30%.
I know the numbers are more than 100% but there is a crossover by some.

If I was a Leaver and voted for 1. ,I would be very angry...Hammond in his budget,not only ignored these people he hit them with a massive reduction in tax credits and/or benefits...to add insult he even lowered corporation tax and invested in big business projects.
If I was a Leaver and voted for 2.,I would be very angry...the latest immigration figures show that this government has done nothing to restrict immigration,I know that they cannot control EU migration but the rest of the world has risen as well,they can already control that.
3. Does anyone really know any laws that Leavers would like deleted,all the human rights and employment laws would seem to be good for those who voted to improve their lifestyle.
If I was a Leaver I would be very angry about Boris's lie about the £350 million down the side of the bus,by the time the Welsh/Scots/Nissan/farmers/Davis's payment to the single market/universities/research chemists/civil service controlling Brexit/costs of exit.....that £11 billion looks like small change.

So it may not be the Remainers who will kill Brexit it will be the failed aspirations of Leavers as well,Theresa May has pretty much ignored the reasons why people voted Leave. Cameron's referendum was just too broad a brush,it cannot accomodate all the reasons to Leave but at the moment it appears to satisfy nobody,Leaver or Remainer.
If Theresa May triggers Article 50,even with the support of the Commons and the Lords(looking difficult and Richmond Park has made it more difficult)it will be like pulling the pin out of a hand grenade and having to hold it for 2-10 years,surely she isnt that stupid.
KudosDave
 

derf

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Aug 4, 2014
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Not American, this is Brexiter's geography. ;)
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speaking of orientation (and apologies for a bit of a tangent), have any of you tried VR? Im thinking of getting an HTC vive. one thing that's pretty clear to me is that as technology integrate a forum like this will inevitably become VR - both a written forum as well as amore three dimensional space in which views are shared (which should be interesting)
 
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Croxden

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speaking of orientation (and apologies for a bit of a tangent), have any of you tried VR? Im thinking of getting an HTC vive. one thing that's pretty clear to me is that as technology integrate a forum like this will inevitably become VR - both a written forum as well as amore three dimensional space in which views are shared (which should be interesting)
I saw a bit about virtual reality (VR) on the apprentice last night, not much for it.
 

oldtom

Esteemed Pedelecer
People make fun of politicians and I'm no different. Of course, a great deal of what politicians do is diametrically opposed to the wishes of their electorate and isn't in the least funny.

Much of today's politics and the way the message of government is disseminated to the population at large was explained in 1945 by one, Hermann Goering, during his trial at Nuremberg.

Nothing to do with today's concerns regarding Europe, you ask? Irrelevant because it's from another time and it was different then?

How many 'Leavers', I wonder, take exactly that kind of view, ignoring the lessons of history?

12341082_10207085376026487_3629765283875921797_n.jpg

Tom
 
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Croxden

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Making fun is fair game, lampoonists make us laugh whilst commenting on some of the looney ideas.

What my objection is picking on women, three in particular, just on their looks.
 

derf

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Making fun is fair game, lampoonists make us laugh whilst commenting on some of the looney ideas.

What my objection is picking on women, three in particular, just on their looks.
three? who on earth is the third? boris? analogy does come into it (Shakespeare's descriptions of Falstaff was about more than the physical)
 
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Croxden

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three? who on earth is the third? boris? analogy does come into )
A Tory, a Liberal & the little one from the SNP.

Mind, Trumps hair came in for some stick, but what I want to know is how did he change from black hair to blonde and when?
 

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