Brexit, for once some facts.

derf

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the Pound has dropped 10% in value.
for now, once the big money get in on teh act over the next week or so my guess is somewher ebwteen another 25% and 35%, which will leabe BoE in an interesting position viz rates, inflation and an abyss
 
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oldgroaner

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Nov 15, 2015
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I am not worried that Brexiters won.
really not much is going to change.
The value of the Pound and the stock market will stabilize in a few days.
To me, the biggest winners are of course Corbyn and Farron, their common enemies the conservatives, Blairites and UKIP are going to be weakened after today.
At the next election, many people who voted for Brexit will punish those who they thought have made promises on the NHS and border controls.
Will they, or will a sufficiently effective shroud of lies prevent that?
 

trex

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May 15, 2011
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I sincerely hope the people of Britain do not come to regret their decision, I fear they will.

Tom
As long as we get a slightly better deal than Norway, it would be easy for the B team to sell.
 
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derf

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Aug 4, 2014
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I am not worried that Brexiters won.
really not much is going to change.
The value of the Pound and the stock market will stabilize in a few days.
To me, the biggest winners are of course Corbyn and Farron, their common enemies the conservatives, Blairites and UKIP are going to be weakened after today.
At the next election, many people who voted for Brexit will punish those who they thought have made promises on the NHS and border controls.
i wish you were right, sincerely, but i'm afraid youre not. i'd bet a bottle of cheap champagne this is teh beginning of a very big hangover, for all of us. i'm not an economist, but the uk's fundamentals are not good at all. the run on teh pund so far is IMHO really just the beginning. it will be interesting to hear a reconstituted conservative givernment rationalis the damaging fallout form this.
 
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trex

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Will they, or will a sufficiently effective shroud of lies prevent that?
At the next election, it's easy for Corbyn's team to critize all the false promises made by Johnson, Gove and Farage in this referendum. His '7 and a half' support for the EU will also serve him well. Farron will get back the students' votes that the LibDem lost in 2015.
 

trex

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i wish you were right, sincerely, but i'm afraid youre not. i'd bet a bottle of cheap champagne this is teh beginning of a very big hangover, for all of us. i'm not an economist, but the uk's fundamentals are not good at all. the run on teh pund so far is IMHO really just the beginning. it will be interesting to hear a reconstituted conservative givernment rationalis the damaging fallout form this.
the run on the Pound relates to short term political uncertainty, not a fundamental over-valuation of the Pound. It will settle probably within a year when a new PM and a new Governor of the BoE can give the market a clear plan to go for the Norway model.
During this time, importers paying in USD are going to suffer a bit against those paying in Euros.
 

gray198

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Apr 4, 2012
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Don't think anyone saw it coming. Even last night Farage was saying that he thought Remain would edge it. To me it shows how out of touch the politicians are with the people they govern. I feel that they took for granted that the people would not take the risk to leave. Also the Labour position was so wishy washy, and the result was that the bulk of their supporters in many working class areas did not support remain, mainly I think because of immigration which has a big effect on them. The leaders of Europe have been complacent and arrogant and will be worried I think about contagion as a result of this. David Cameron I think has taken the right decision. I don't see how he could carry on given what his position has been throughout. I think now will show what calibre of leaders we have.
Nicola Sturgeon is already talking about another referendum on independence. I suppose that will depend on the mood of the people.
We can and will come through, but am sure there will be some stormy waters to sail through.
 

trex

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May 15, 2011
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We can and will come through, but am sure there will be some stormy waters to sail through.
I agree. Woosh have stopped sales until Monday, waiting for the exchange rate to stabilize. Expect 10% price hike.
 
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derf

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Aug 4, 2014
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Don't think anyone saw it coming. Even last night Farage was saying that he thought Remain would edge it. To me it shows how out of touch the politicians are with the people they govern. I feel that they took for granted that the people would not take the risk to leave. Also the Labour position was so wishy washy, and the result was that the bulk of their supporters in many working class areas did not support remain, mainly I think because of immigration which has a big effect on them. The leaders of Europe have been complacent and arrogant and will be worried I think about contagion as a result of this. David Cameron I think has taken the right decision. I don't see how he could carry on given what his position has been throughout. I think now will show what calibre of leaders we have.
Nicola Sturgeon is already talking about another referendum on independence. I suppose that will depend on the mood of the people.
We can and will come through, but am sure there will be some stormy waters to sail through.
IMHO cameron has done UK more damage than blair, which is quite a spectcular achoevement. But he shoudlnt have resigned. now teh uncertainty will be orse. he shoudl have remained for a few months and steadied things. But naturally he doesnt give a sh@t, as always.
 

gray198

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Apr 4, 2012
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Having watched Ca-moron, fairly graciously I'm bound to say, announce his resignation and after seeing Farage wallow in triumphalism, can we expect an announcement later today that UKIP is being dissolved, their raison d'être now accomplished?

Tom
I have not been one of his greatest fans,but I have a lot of respect for the way he has accepted the decision of the uk
 

tillson

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May 29, 2008
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This is an extraordinary day, the likes of which we are unlikely to see again. I want to soak up the experience.
 
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trex

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May 15, 2011
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Boris will now have to come up with a plan.
 
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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after seeing Farage wallow in triumphalism, can we expect an announcement later today that UKIP is being dissolved, their raison d'être now accomplished?
Possibly not, he's lost his Brussels job but won't like the Norway style deal we'll inevitably be negotiating, so he may see that as a reason to continue in UK politics.

On the other hand, he did resign from UKIP once before, so may hand over to Douglas Carswell to do that job, since he is at least in the House of Commons.
.
 
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