Brexit, for once some facts.

[oldtom]

This thread had run its course a long time ago as some have noticed. All the major points seem to have been covered repeatedly and both logical and lexical semantics are there by the bucketload for all to see.

The nonsense of a bunch of amateurs spouting numbers and percentages as if to suggest they understand them reduces the discussion to the level of stupidity. Some seem to have forgotten, or choose to ignore when bandying about numbers, the enormous sums of money the tory government ordered the treasury to inject into the economy under the curiously-named 'QE programme', (quantitative easing).

My lack of understanding prevents me from telling the difference between currency devaluation and actually just creating more money to the tune of many billions of pounds. That same lack of understanding prevents me also from understanding why we just don't do it all the time or whenever the country is hard-up.

So, when people say what about the debt we have? How will we ever pay it off? I get confused. I also get confused when the tories take over the government of the country and tell the nation that the Labour administration has left the country with gazillions of debt because of their failed economic policy, only to introduce austerity measures to remedy it which then increases that same debt.

Perhaps if the government all rode electric bikes and visited this forum they might learn from some of the experts here where their economic policy has failed. I'd like to know too. What I do know is, the most popular university degree course for aspirant MPs seems to be PP&E, which I can only guess no-one has ever passed, judging by our national record of financial husbandry of the nation's wealth.

I'm thinking about buying a new car at the moment but the ones I really like are a bit beyond my budget. I suppose if I had some clever forgery tools and equipment, I could just print some money and buy whatever I like and not worry about any consequences. After all, that's what the government does.

Tom

ps Just seen that QE has been mentioned.

 

[BrendanJ]

bookies said more than 95% of the new bets are now going to remain.

probability for a Brexit result is now only 22%.

I hope they are all just having a flutter, this is not a vote I would put my shirt on

 

[oldgroaner]

Thank you trex for recognising that the economic arguments were overblown.
The respected and probable estimates are gdp could be affected by plus or minus 1% by 2030 14 years from now, so completely out of any bounds of forecasting capability, this is also based on less than an expected growth % anyway so still on the plus side and also assumes that the eu will continue to grow which is by know means certain Especially if we leave, it would more probably disintegrate in that timescale
So the conclusion here is simply the answer is not in the economic modelling

In yours, but few others it would seem!

 

[oldgroaner]

I hope they are all just having a flutter, this is not a vote I would put my shirt on

This will shock you but I agree with you and foresee a Brexit Victory, and by quite a large margin too.

 

[trex]

And yet I still feel the probability indicates a Brexit victory (mores the pity)

I am not worried if Brexit wins but I don't think it's likely. Most voters don't care that much about immigration, a recent survey puts immigration in 6th or 7th place in term of priority. To be honest, I think it's a myth that any government could control immigration, however much control is already in their hands. people will move where employers have jobs for them. Economic success and immigration always go hand in hand since time immemorial.

 

[oldgroaner]

I shall be delighted if I'm proved wrong on this!

Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk

 

[oldtom]

It's getting closer and I haven't even placed a bet. I'm reluctant having seen many of my recent flutters on the UEFA matches go down the pan.

My feeling is that the 'Remain' camp will probably win the day but I still think the support for the fascist gang could nick it in which case, I may well spend more time out of the UK.


For those of us who like a conspiracy theory, this one probably has some legs......



Tom

 

[BrendanJ]

This thread had run its course a long time ago as some have noticed. All the major points seem to have been covered repeatedly and both logical and lexical semantics are there by the bucketload for all to see.

The nonsense of a bunch of amateurs spouting numbers and percentages as if to suggest they understand them reduces the discussion to the level of stupidity. Some seem to have forgotten, or choose to ignore when bandying about numbers, the enormous sums of money the tory government ordered the treasury to inject into the economy under the curiously-named 'QE programme', (quantitative easing).

My lack of understanding prevents me from telling the difference between currency devaluation and actually just creating more money to the tune of many billions of pounds. That same lack of understanding prevents me also from understanding why we just don't do it all the time or whenever the country is hard-up.

So, when people say what about the debt we have? How will we ever pay it off? I get confused. I also get confused when the tories take over the government of the country and tell the nation that the Labour administration has left the country with gazillions of debt because of their failed economic policy, only to introduce austerity measures to remedy it which then increases that same debt.

Perhaps if the government all rode electric bikes and visited this forum they might learn from some of the experts here where their economic policy has failed. I'd like to know too. What I do know is, the most popular university degree course for aspirant MPs seems to be PP&E, which I can only guess no-one has ever passed, judging by our national record of financial husbandry of the nations wealth.

I'm thinking about buying a new car at the moment but the ones I really like are a bit beyond my budget. I suppose if I had some clever forgery tools and equipment, I could just print some money and buy whatever I like and not worry about any consequences. After all, that's what the government does.

Tom

ps Just seen that QE has been mentioned.

Old Tom, Your best post yet and thank you it is not biased to one camp or another. I agree completely which which is why I posted re facts and figures,
ie these are in the eyes of the beholder and from my experience will never make a decision for you no matter how hard you try.

So we are now at decision point and I hope and trust that the British people with or without the right facts, with or without the obvious superior intellect of some on here will know a rabbit when they see one, and vote with their instinct and trust in our ability to succeed come what may.
On that note as you point out, this thread has run its course and I now bow out of the conversation. Best regards to all

 

[gray198]

"we" (usa/uk) have created most of the debt through causing the 2008 financial crisis by having a corrupt/compromised financial system, the eu wants to block excessive banker's bonuses, the tory/uk government does not. the question isn't how we will extract money from the eu - there isn't any easy ways to undo the damage usa/uk financial systems have done to the world - the question is how to prevent history from repeating itself. having a runaway capitalist system under boris and some free range bankers would be a really good way to repeat what happened in 2008

I thought the financial crisis happened while labour were in power and had been for over ten years. They also managed to leave the country in a terrible state having tried to bribe everyone to vote for them with welfare paid for by taxpayers. I don't know how you can blame the conservatives for that. Wasn't it Brown who refused to give us a referendum on the Lisbon treaty although it was a treaty change. I think he even sneaked in the back door to do it. Wasn't he the one who called a woman 'bigoted' because she had the temerity t question migration. Also at the time Cameron in opposition was banging on about why we should have a referendum on the Lisbon treaty, but then changed his mind when he got in power. So from my point of view they are all as bad and nothing they say can be trusted. They will say whatever they think will keep/get them power. For me this is a chance our country back and we should take it. Don't trust what any politician or business leader says because they all have their own interests at heart and couldn't care less about the populace

 

[trex]

this is a chance [to take] our country back and we should take it.

to take our country back? this is another myth.
nobody has taken our country away from us. We can stop paying fees, walk out of this EU club and refuse entry to any EU passport carrying passenger anytime our parliament decides. If Brexiters don't win this time, they can regroup and vote for Brexit MPs in 2020. It's only after Brexit, if our children and grandchildren feeling so far behind France and Germany want to rejoin that we know how expensive this exercise of democracy really is.

 

[gray198]

I don't think the remain side have produced any more facts than the leave side. They have produced a lot of threats and dire warnings, but no real facts. They have not actually produced any details about what's going to happen if we remain. There will be plenty of measures waiting in the wings to be implemented. That would be facts but of course they won't be mentioned. So we just go blindly on having our country and heritage stolen from us. At least Cameron will get a nice cushy job at the Eu and not have to worry about it

 

[gray198]

to take our country back? this is another myth.
nobody has taken our country away from us. We can stop paying fees, walk out of this EU club and refuse entry to any EU passport carrying passenger anytime our parliament decides. If Brexiters don't win this time, they can regroup and vote for Brexit MPs in 2020. It's only after Brexit, if our children and grandchildren feeling so far behind France and Germany want to rejoin that we know how expensive this exercise of democracy really is.

T-Rex it's taken 40 years to get this vote and that was grudgingly given because of UKIP . The political classes want us to stay because it suits them

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

The political classes want us to stay because it suits them

its not just the political classes, it appears to be most businesses, the unions, charities, churches, universities and most people... thankfully

 

[trex]

T-Rex it's taken 40 years to get this vote and that was grudgingly given because of UKIP . The political classes want us to stay because it suits them

Brexiters have always had the chance to get us out since we joined in 1973. If Brexiters can command more than 36% of the electorate then Brexiters can control parliament and get us out of the EU.
a recent European study suggested that the real number of Brexiters is around 33%. The rest got motivated to vote for Brexit for other reasons,

 

[(NoLongerRegistered#15675)]

I don't imply Brexiters are misinformed, I believe Brexiters don't want accurate information, it being so inconvenient.

Theirs is a position of faith, a blind belief in what they would like to be true in future, rather than a rational position based on known facts.

Brexit could qualify as a religion.
.

As usual your entire argument is to knock brexit, its followers or their opinions.The few opinions you do express are done so as facts.
You and OG can simply not accept there is another way of looking at all this. Its you and your ilk with the bigoted,know it all stance. Yes you have an OPINION , well smell the roses. So do another 60 million folk in UK.
Its always same on forums, why is it all the experts who have all answers spend hour after hour o n here when they should be running country.
This thread has gone around and around with nothing new said at all.
Perhaps you and OG should have put your efforts into canvassing rather than telling brexit supporters how stupid they are..again and again and again..

 

[flecc]

I don't think the remain side have produced any more facts than the leave side. They have produced a lot of threats and dire warnings, but no real facts.

Not so, these are quoted facts:

The conditions and costs Norway suffers in order to have unfettered trade with the EU.

What happened to Switzerland when they tried to opt out of free movement of EU citizens.

The huge industrial decline in Britain before we joined the EU.

And that is without listing the past facts about our political ineptitude.

There will be plenty of measures waiting in the wings to be implemented.

That's not a fact, that's supposition

At least Cameron will get a nice cushy job at the Eu and not have to worry about it

That's not a fact, that's supposition.
.

 

[(NoLongerRegistered#15675)]

Not so, these are quoted facts:

The conditions and costs Norway suffers in order to have unfettered trade with the EU.

What happened to Switzerland when they tried to opt out of free movement of EU citizens.

The huge industrial decline in Britain before we joined the EU.

And that is without listing the past facts about our political ineptitude.



That's not a fact, that's supposition



That's not a fact, that's supposition.
.

Yep the political ineptitude that took us into EU, offset by the masterstroke of keeping sterling ??
Think its time people actually looked up what a fact is . Seems to me remainers on here aren,t too sure.

 

[flecc]

As usual your entire argument is to knock brexit, its followers or their opinions.The few opinions you do express are done so as facts.
You and OG can simply not accept there is another way of looking at all this. Its you and your ilk with the bigoted,know it all stance. Yes you have an OPINION , well smell the roses. So do another 60 million folk in UK.
Its always same on forums, why is it all the experts who have all answers spend hour after hour o n here when they should be running country.
This thread has gone around and around with nothing new said at all.
Perhaps you and OG should have put your efforts into canvassing rather than telling brexit supporters how stupid they are..again and again and again..

No, when I've given an opinion I've stated it as such.

I've not indulged in quoting experts or figures, just stated well known facts, and repeated a few of them just a moment ago on this link.

But of course you'd rather opine that such demonstrable facts are opinions.

And I've never said or implied that Brexiters are stupid. Indeed I've posted my genuine sympathy with their situation and often sided with them in this thread, either in posts or by clicking "Agree" or "Like". The last such occasion was my posted strong support for Tillson in rejecting the pro leave statement from Warren East of Rolls-Royce.

And at no point have I said I have all the answers. I don't. I only have an opinion that we should remain.
.

 

[derf]

Old Tom, Your best post yet and thank you it is not biased to one camp or another. I agree completely which which is why I posted re facts and figures,
ie these are in the eyes of the beholder and from my experience will never make a decision for you no matter how hard you try.

So we are now at decision point and I hope and trust that the British people with or without the right facts, with or without the obvious superior intellect of some on here will know a rabbit when they see one, and vote with their instinct and trust in our ability to succeed come what may.
On that note as you point out, this thread has run its course and I now bow out of the conversation. Best regards to all

and I agree with you - were on different sides of the argument, to me remain seems an obvious choice, but if nothing else this thread has shown me that the voters may well act out in an almighty self destructive way. I trust the British people and keep a keen eye on overseas job opportunities.

 

[oldgroaner]

I thought the financial crisis happened while labour were in power and had been for over ten years. They also managed to leave the country in a terrible state having tried to bribe everyone to vote for them with welfare paid for by taxpayers. I don't know how you can blame the conservatives for that. Wasn't it Brown who refused to give us a referendum on the Lisbon treaty although it was a treaty change. I think he even sneaked in the back door to do it. Wasn't he the one who called a woman 'bigoted' because she had the temerity t question migration. Also at the time Cameron in opposition was banging on about why we should have a referendum on the Lisbon treaty, but then changed his mind when he got in power. So from my point of view they are all as bad and nothing they say can be trusted. They will say whatever they think will keep/get them power. For me this is a chance our country back and we should take it. Don't trust what any politician or business leader says because they all have their own interests at heart and couldn't care less about the populace

Nice collection of Urban Myths sprinkled with just a smidegeon of truth that crept in somehow you have scraped up there, as if it hadn't been for the actions taken by Gordon Brown the situation after the crash would have been infinitely worse, and may I remind you that this shower of a Government borrowed more in Five Years than Labour did in Eighteen?
So you want to get your country back? then what on Earth would you want to hand absolute power to the Conservatives for?
Lets cut to the chase, who will run this country the way you want them to?
Come on lets have some names.