Brexit, for once some facts.

[Croxden]

Farmers are all for leaving while the NFU are for remaining.

No wonder I'm confused as are so many others, what must the rest of the world think of us?

 

[trex]

that just reflects the general dislike for bureaucracy. We know we need it but we don't like it. So, individually, we may like to get out of the EU but collectively, we know that we still need the EU because in or out, the EU will still have a big influence on our livelihood, so it's better to remain, at least we are warned where we and our neighbours are heading to.

That's one possibility, but so is simply paying duties on exports , and of course charging duties on imports, net difference probably zero

take e-bikes for example. European bikes don't pay import duty, the difference with bikes made elsewhere is genreally 6%. Brexit could wipe out the difference, meaning European e-bikes are going to be 6% dearer. Brexit will result in increased prices in the shops by the average percentage of import duty but would increase employment and opportunities in the long term. I am pretty sure we'll survive the lower GDP after Brexit but I think the next government is going to be labour. It will be interesting to see how a labour goverment is going to cope with a situation which is not of their own doing, ironic really considering the Cameron goverment has to deal with labour's mess. Maybe there's some natural political law, you are only voted in because the other guy messed up.

 

[BrendanJ]

take e-bikes for example. European bikes don't pay import duty, the difference with bikes made elsewhere is genreally 6%. Brexit could wipe out the difference, meaning European e-bikes are going to be 6% dearer. Brexit will result in increased prices in the shops by the average percentage of import duty but would increase employment and opportunities in the long term.

 

[BrendanJ]

Ahah, back to a subject we all know about!
Trex you are indeed right and I cannot deny in the game of duties, export and import there would be winners and losers on both sides of the channel
That's why I think pragmatism will prevail, but if not then please consider
on average duties nowadays are quite low. I import and export. It has been said in case of our exports to Europe this could amount to 2.5% overall, frankly this pales into insignificance of the spread of movements of ex rate even within one year, which is a normal trading conditions our businesses deal with, coupled with the most likely scenario of a weakening pound, it does not take much to wipe out this duty effect
Now Turing to imports, should EU adopt such a crazy response then it would be perfectly up to us how to apply import tariffs at our discretion, if we so wished, although I would not advocate trade war responses
Finally we would now be free to buy and sell anywhere in the world, which frankly is what we are good at when unshackled by European self protectionism
There is clearly uncertainty, which I believe is largely a short term scenario
But again uncertainty is a business reality, unless we crawl under a rock, (not a bad analogy me thinks)

 

[oldgroaner]

So y

That's one possibility, but so is simply paying duties on exports , and of course charging duties on imports, net difference probably zero
Combined with the probability of lower value pound, looks good to me
Roll up more New Zealand butter. I just don't get the negative idea that all the cards are in the EU,s hands
I agree that in the brexit campaign it includes some very right wing types, but don't tar them all with the same brush, it also includes a lot of very intelligent and experienced people as clearly witnessed on last nights debate
Also please remember we are not electing a new party here, at last count the government is still the Tory party which would simply be given a new mandate by the British people on the direction it wishes to take, and given the wrangling and negotiation that would then take place it is entirely reasonable that there would be down the line another referendum to confirm the final plan

Er, where are the exports coming from if we have to pay duties on them?
Are you aware that the Confederation of British industry only represents 24% of our Industrial Capacity as the rest is under Foreign Ownership?
The foreign companies who manufacture "our" trade goods (which is most of our capacity) will have no reason to remain in the UK and move there, to a warm welcome no doubt as they too have plenty of cheap labour, can offer a ready made Market, and these said manufacturers aren't going to be impressed by being marooned in a small offshore market that has to pay to ship to Europe reducing their profits, that's why they are here in the first place.
And you want to charge duties on imports from the EU with a pound that has less value?
What a novel idea, so we pay more for no reason? how clever!
You like New Zealand Butter? nothing to stop us buying it now, but how does that help us? it will still cost us more by your own estimates with a weaker pound.
And as to voting on the Referendum giving the Conservatives any mandate except with regard to the single question of Brexit, the only mandate I would give them is the order of the Boot.
And the last paragraph makes it by no means certain that you really want Brexit, or is it just a ploy to get our own way to a better deal by playing Chicken with them?

 

[oldgroaner]

Here is a tit bit for you from Autocar
"
Leading voices in support of remaining in the EU include senior members of Toyota, BMW and Vauxhall. Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, said: “The message from UK Automotive is clear – being in Europe is vital for the future of this industry and to secure jobs, investment and growth."

He said 77% of cars built in the UK were exported last year, with 57% of those going to European customers. 1.3 million British-built cars were exported last year – the highest on record – and the industry accounted for a significant 11.8% of all UK exports, worth £15 billion to the economy. The industry employs 800,000 people. “Leaving would put many of these jobs at risk.”
And that is a major money maker isn't it?
Toyota warns of cutbacks
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/mar/03/uk-motor-industry-backs-uk-remaining-in-europe-survey-eu-positive-impacy
And warnings about the investments from abroad situation.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/my-research-proves-that-brexit-would-cut-foreign-investment-in-the-uk-and-that-really-does-matter-a6989216.html
But the Brexiteers dismiss these warning of course.

 

[trex]

What a novel idea, so we pay more for no reason? how clever!

It's not necessarily clever but it does make us Brexiters feel we are the boss.

 

[flecc]

Finally we would now be free to buy and sell anywhere in the world, which frankly is what we are good at when unshackled by European self protectionism

This is the bit I don't agree with, simply because it wasn't true. In the decades up to joining the EU we had been increasingly failing in manufacturing and exporting. That led us into financial management by the IMF. So we weren't good at it when not shackled by the EU.

And that was when our competition was mainly just from Europe and Japan.

Now look at today, the competition hugely expanded with the addition of China, India, Indonesia, Taiwan, the Phillipines and others now sophisticated enough to compete.

With this scale of low cost competition in the other areas we'd want to sell to, our shrunken manufacturing sector and that prior record of failure, I think the going could be very tough.

To really become competitive would probably need us to drop to the incomes and standard of living of some of those other countries. Indeed, we've already begun that process since early 2008, so it would be likely to get much worse.
.

 

[trex]

have you not noticed? Brexit is a godsend gift for Corbynites. New labour is doing all the campaigning while Corbyn enjoys his holiday.

 

[derf]

have you not noticed? Brexit is a godsend gift for Corbynites. New labour is doing all the campaigning while Corbyn enjoys his holiday.

strangely, speaking as a corbynite, i half agree: of course it is good strategy for corbyn to do nothing while teh tories self destruct (any input from him would simply duistract tehm fromo slaughtering each other). But what an unsatisfactory place to be with politicians who are either corrupt, or self serving, or thick. there is so a comoplete absence of an intelligent view or plan politically for the future at the moment

 

[trex]

...
politicians who are either corrupt, or self serving, or thick.

many of them have a great capacity to be all three at once.

 

[oldgroaner]

It's not necessarily clever but it does make us Brexiters feel we are the boss.

As in Captain of the Titanic?

 

[trex]

Brexiters, be careful what you wish for. Last night ITV debate seems to have put Brexit ahead, Wolfgang Scheauble's comment made it worse, consequence is clear: the Pound fell sharply, FTSE100 dropped 1.9% on the day, foreign investors are nervous and pulling out.

 

[trex]

just for comparison, what the London stock market lost today is enough to pay for 10 years of EU fees. Most Brexiters can't get their head round this sort of economic issue. It's their pensions, endownment policies and savings that they lose.

https://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=INDEXFTSE:UKX

Since the referendum was announced, the FTSE100 has dropped 600 points, about 9.5% of 4 trillion pound, the value of the UK stock market, or about 400 billions. Compare that figure against the 8.5 billion pounds net contribution for 2015, that illustrates the importance of being inside the EU. Companies and individuals set their losses against taxes, that's between 80 to 160 billions of future tax loss. I blame the tories.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/10/ftse-100-tumbles-as-economy-and-brexit-fears-mount/

 

[oldgroaner]

just for comparison, what the London stock market lost today is enough to pay for 10 years of EU fees. Most Brexiters can't get their head round this sort of economic issue. It's their pensions, endownment policies and savings that they lose.

https://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=INDEXFTSE:UKX

Since the referendum was announced, the FTSE100 has dropped 600 points, about 9.5% of 4 trillion pound, the value of the UK stock market, or about 400 billions. Compare that figure against the 8.5 billion pounds net contribution for 2015, that illustrates the importance of being inside the EU. Companies and individuals set their losses against taxes, that's between 80 to 160 billions of future tax loss. I blame the tories.

Amazing how the most expensively educated people in the land can so mishandle the country that they create a situation through Fear of UKIP that is even more destructive to the economy than even having Osborne handle a job like Chancellor of the Exchequer, for which he he has shown as much aptitude as a pheasant displays road sense.
Putin must be beside himself with glee at our bizarre antics, still credit where it is due, they provide an even better defence than Trident.
Why invade the UK when the Government is doing a truly great job on his behalf of sabotaging the country and running the ship of state onto the rocks?
And that is about the only positive contribution the Conservatives are making to the defence of the realm.
Making potential enemies see us a laughing stock.

 

[mike killay]

destructive to the economy than even having Osborne handle a job like Chancellor of the Exchequer, for which he he has shown as much aptitude as a pheasant displays road sense.
.

Well, he had to clear up the disgraceful mess that Brown and Darling left behind.

 

[Croxden]

Darling yes.

 

[oldgroaner]

Well, he had to clear up the disgraceful mess that Brown and Darling left behind.

As in "Someone left me the washing up, but I blew up the dishwasher and set fire to the house, taking half the street with it." sort of cleaning up, you mean?

 

[tillson]

During the last week, I see that in addition to Anthony Bamford (JCB), James Dyson is now backing an exit from the EU. I thought that the response to Dyson's decision by the In Campaign was very strange: "Britain Stronger In Europe said: "James Dyson wanted the UK to join the Euro. He was wrong then and he is wrong now."

But the In campaign also quote the same people and organisations who prophesied Armageddon if we didn't join the Euro to scare us into believing that we will all perish if we now leave the EU. If ever there was a case of turning the gun on yourself! Dyson has simply reavaluated the pros & cons and altered his decision. A sensible approach.

I do agree that many of those backing remain were those backing joining the Euro. Of course,they were wrong about that and they are now wrong about remaining in this destructive and failing mess called the EU.

The EU will continue to trade with the U.K. once we are out and they know it. The threats that they have made in recent days are a desperate attempt at bullying and a clear signal of how unattractive EU membership has become. An organisation of any value or worth should be a place where people want to be, not a place with a goon on the exit door threatening to kick your head in if you step outside. Doesn't this say something to you about the state of the EU? And it is going to get worse as it expands, crowbarring yet more countries into this dirty club.

 

[oldgroaner]

During the last week, I see that in addition to Anthony Bamford (JCB), James Dyson is now backing an exit from the EU. I thought that the response to Dyson's decision by the In Campaign was very strange: "Britain Stronger In Europe said: "James Dyson wanted the UK to join the Euro. He was wrong then and he is wrong now."

But the In campaign also quote the same people and organisations who prophesied Armageddon if we didn't join the Euro to scare us into believing that we will all perish if we now leave the EU. If ever there was a case of turning the gun on yourself! Dyson has simply reavaluated the pros & cons and altered his decision. A sensible approach.

I do agree that many of those backing remain were those backing joining the Euro. Of course,they were wrong about that and they are now wrong about remaining in this destructive and failing mess called the EU.

The EU will continue to trade with the U.K. once we are out and they know it. The threats that they have made in recent days are a desperate attempt at bullying and a clear signal of how unattractive EU membership has become. An organisation of any value or worth should be a place where people want to be, not a place with a goon on the exit door threatening to kick your head in if you step outside. Doesn't this say something to you about the state of the EU? And it is going to get worse as it expands, crowbarring yet more countries into this dirty club.

Welcome back Tilson, I have missed your interesting and thought provoking comments, even though we rarely agree.
No doubt we will as you say continue to trade with the EU, but at a much lower level of profit, and we are unlikely to encourage foreign investors to come here and set up shop, or retain the ones who came here for easy and cheap access to the EU market.
This "Dirty club" as you called it has been responsible for a great deal of beneficial legislation from the public point of view, an accusation you really cannot make with respect of our own parliament.
"An organisation of any value or worth should be a place where people want to be, not a place with a goon on the exit door threatening to kick your head in if you step outside."
This is a new one on me, has IDS defected to the EU? that sounds like the workings of his previous command.
And if you want "now wrong about remaining in this destructive and failing mess "
A better description of the state of this country after a few years outside the EU would be hard to find.
We will be back in the hands of the IMF as we were before we joined the EU