Brexit, for once some facts.

[BrendanJ]

I see no such problem, since Germany, The Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden and Austria are all succeeding within the EU and its structures. Even here in the UK we're doing well in many respects within our membership.

You've missed the point that each country within the EU needs to play its part to succeed, the EU can't do it all, it can only provide a framework.

Since Germany has become the leading economic and environmental nation that it is, clearly the EU is not materially impeding it. They live under exactly the same rules as the rest of the 27 countries, so those countries that fail have only themselves to blame. The gross irresponsibility of successive Greek administrations and the economic mess they are in is clear enough proof of that.
.

The northern countries, highly industrialised and with previously strong currencies have clearly benefitted from lower and equal ex rate, they have benefitted absolutely but at the cost of Southern countries, not just Greece but Spain, and Italy. The newer countries are all beneficiaries (at the moment ) of support, but how many know that the cost for this is the loss of democracy.
Read what Donald Tusk has to say on the direction of Europe, I was surprised to hear it from him but agreed 100% (if I can find it I will post the link)

 

[BrendanJ]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/31/tusk-blames-utopian-eu-elites-for-eurosceptic-revolt-and-brexit/

 

[flecc]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/31/tusk-blames-utopian-eu-elites-for-eurosceptic-revolt-and-brexit/

Thanks, I don't disagree with this, but the push for union has not caused the economic troubles of the Southern Countries. They have each in similar ways brought this upon themselves. They knew what they were joining but were not prepared to act responsibly as a part of the EU.

Instead they treated it as a gravy train providing a good living with minimal effort. Inevitably that led to the ever greater economic disparity which they sought to get out of by borrowing. That's always an unwise solution as we in the UK are now finding out as we struggle to cope with our ever growing national debt.

If each country had approached their EU membership with the same attitude and effort that Germany did, they too would have succeeded.
.

 

[oldtom]

I read this last night, I can't find who wrote it, but its spot on in my eyes:

"I have been listening to the various arguments about this idiotic and damaging referendum for weeks now. All of them focus on personal advantage and disadvantage. Both camps want to appeal to the venal, the self serving, "You will all be better/worse off in/out of the EU". Remain suggests leaving to be economic and security suicide, while Biscuit merely seem to be asking 'what did the Romans ever do for us?'.

This debate is being conducted in the usual schoolyard manner we have come to expect of our ‘leaders’. And there is so little to be said for "Brexit", a word as ugly and false as the barely disguised xenophobia it truly represents, that its supporters are reduced to yelling "That's not fair you're just trying to scare us!" every time some eminently respectable and sober individual or organisation (Mark Carney, Obama, the OFS, the IMF, the head of the NHS... the list goes on and on) remarks that in their considered opinion leaving the EU carries risks. Since Biscuit have obviously lost the economic argument they're now just banging on about immigration - “comin' over 'ere taking our jobs” - an appeal to the most base and unattractive of all our lamentable small island prejudices.

But we are not merely a small island, we are (even though we enjoy denigrating our postwar, post imperial state) one of the richest, most powerful and influential nations on the planet. Along with France and Germany we underpin European stability. Our withdrawal from Europe would be deeply resented by every other state within the bloc, and justifiably so, as the whole would be immeasurably weakened, a state of affairs which should please no one bar a few jingoistic right-wingers and Vladimir Putin. Following Biscuit, right wing nationalist parties in other member states would clamour for independence too, their poisonous bitter protest rooted (as all rightist arguments are), on the theory that their unhappiness/lack of employment/poverty/woeful education/sexual frustration must all be someone else's fault. We will see violence and stupidity rampant and power hungry men merrily abandoning what little decency they once had to become the local Trump-u-like.

Meanwhile, Boris Biscuit Barrel 'La Trumpa' Johnson makes scandalous comparisons to the Third Reich (please be assured dear reader that labour camps, racial cataloging, slave nations and state sponsored euthanasia for the disadvantaged are not part of any one's plan for the future of the EU), and David Cameron suggests that your holiday to the Costa del Sol might cost a few extra hundred quid if we leave. Johnson is unforgivable, and call me Dave may be exaggerating. But so what? What if we stay and your holiday still gets more expensive? (it probably should by the way), and we should stay anyway.

I've been working for a few weeks in Lithuania this year (Vilnius is very lovely, you should visit). They of course secured freedom from the crumbling Soviet Empire in 1991; that’s 25 years ago, like yesterday. They were the first Soviet satellite to secede, Russian tanks ran over celebrating Lithuanians as they withdrew, peaceful people forming human shields before buildings of national importance were shot while they sung. Gorbachev received the Nobel peace prize that year. The Lithuanians are terrified of the Russians returning.

Look at a map of Europe in 1975 - Spain is a fascist dictatorship, Portugal is just starting to recover from the 26 year rule of Salazar - another fascist. Poland, East Germany, Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria are all soviet satellites independent only in name. You won’t even see the Baltic states on the map, they are entirely subsumed by the USSR. A short time later,15 years, these countries start to reappear, looking west for support, desperate to reestablish autonomy and national identity, to trade and to travel freely - you know; the stuff we’ve all been enjoying for half a century.

Now the EU extends from the Baltic to the Mediterranean, from Ireland to Greece, that's a big WOW! a cause for great celebration. France and Germany are our close friends, no longer bitter enemies.

Bulgarians and Romanians coming here to work is a bloody triumph. These are not a bunch of ‘gypos’ coming here to commit criminal acts and live off benefits, they are people freed from ghastly dictatorships who have, for a just a few short years, been able to enjoy something like freedom and affluence.

This is what the EU is for, this is why it’s the most forward thinking and civilised development in postwar history; a secular, democratic, tolerant, inclusive federation of mutually supportive states.

And we are threatening to break it up? It’s a f***** disgrace."

Thank you for this contribution, the content of which provides no reason for me to disagree.

I note you choose, kindly I think, to use the word xenophobia and until recently, I saw that also as the correct terminology for what I was witnessing and hearing from the 'Out' campaign followers on the streets. However, without disagreeing with you, I no longer believe that we should be so kind; the better description of what is being said in their demand for freedom and independence from their perceived tyranny under the EU, fuelled by the fascist monsters, Johnson and Farage, is nothing short of racism.

We have nothing to fear from the EU but everyone should fear the rise of the right from wherever it lays down its poisonous seeds. Fascism begins to take root insidiously, unnoticed at first by many people but once established, it quickly flourishes in the climate of fear it creates in the minds of ordinary people. That fear is always connected to propaganda depicting a threat from foreigners in one way or another.

In the 1930s and 40s, Joseph Goebbels was an expert in the art of manipulating fact and fiction, creating a situation whereby anyone not agreeing with the party line was seen as unpatriotic. Now, some will laugh at my point and say that it's not the same today and there is simply no comparison between the rise of fascism in Germany back then and what we are witnessing here today. They may well laugh but most of the machinery is in place which permits people like Goebbels to cultivate their brand of evil within the population.

More important, therefore, than any economic or humanitarian view about the EU and our place in it, is that British people recognise and identify the rise of the fascist movement right now. Those like Johnson and Farage have upped the ante, probably psychologically charged by the knowledge, hyped considerably by the right-wing media, that the dolts, thugs and simpletons of the country have become vociferous and more than a little menacing in their support. Those with understanding of 1930s Germany will know why I make this point.

Certainly, Johnson and Farage in particular have become quite blatant in their contempt for everything European, indeed everything foreign, as it now seems to appear and the word refugee doesn't exist for them any more.

In the dreams of those who wish Britain to be independent of the EU, presumably they must imagine a situation where everything in the UK is rosy and the countries we have divorced ourselves from begin to flounder as a result of our lost contributions. I'm afraid I have a different dream!

Tom

 

[trex]

there are 161 members in the WTO. 36 trade agreements between the EU and 58 WTO countries that currently give preferential terms to EU members will need to be re-negociated as soon as the UK is outside the EU.
before the UK is out of the EU, a second referendum will need to be called to decide whether the exit terms are acceptable.
As far as I can see, there is no easy way for the UK to get out without losing a decade or so of growth. It's a shame that most Brexiters are the very people who are least affected by the cost of Brexit.

 

[the_killjoy]

Given the high unemployment rate in Spain of 20%, Greece 25% against our 5% the EU can hardly be said to serving it's citizens.

 

[flecc]

Given the high unemployment rate in Spain of 20%, Greece 25% against our 5% the EU can hardly be said to serving it's citizens.

This is not due to the EU but to these member countries, as I pointed out on this link and then again on this link.

They've had the same option to succeed within the EU as Germany, The Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden and Austria, all of whom have succeeded under the identical EU rules.
.

 

[trex]

after Brexit, some firms will postpone expansion plans or move to another EU countries until there is more certainty, ie the second referendum. During this time, tax receipt, unemployment and the value of the Pound will worsen, inflation is going to hit the value of your savings. However, it's nothing compared to the effect of recession on the poor and the unemployed.

 

[derf]

after Brexit, some firms will postpone expansion plans or move to another EU countries until there is more certainty, ie the second referendum. During this time, tax receipt, unemployment and the value of the Pound will worsen, inflation is going to hit the value of your savings. However, it's nothing compared to the effect of recession on the poor and the unemployed.

there is also the small matter of a second scottish referendum (with a very, very predictable outcome), and so probably the break up of the union, and speaking for myself and others i work with who have moved here over the past ten years or so, considerable emigration from the UK elsewhere.

 

[oldtom]

Given the high unemployment rate in Spain of 20%, Greece 25% against our 5% the EU can hardly be said to serving it's citizens.

I have had to remain indoors today as I have quite a bit of work to do requiring my computer. It certainly wasn't my intention to venture further into the 'Brexit' debate but I enjoyed reading the KTM fellow's take on what is happening and felt obliged to compliment him and support his view.

Having taken time out to see what new comments have been added, I was surprised to see the one I have quoted here.

'Killjoy', with great respect, I'm afraid you seem to have fallen into the trap of blaming the EU for the ills of individual countries, as your reference to Spain and Greece suggests.

As one who spends a lot of time in the former as an ex-pat, I can tell you that the EU was not and is not responsible for the reckless business decisions made by Spanish entrepreneurs and their ultra-corrupt local government officials. The folly and greed of those people brought about the industrial collapse in Spain and the national government had no idea how to fix the situation.

Spain had never had a property, (and consequent economic), boom until the early 1990s then, suddenly, it all happened for them and the Spanish lived the high life for the next decade and a half, never imagining that things would go downhill again. Those years seemed like it was time to make up for all the hardships suffered by generations under the rule of Franco.

They didn't have our experience of economic boom followed by bust so they had no idea that a recession could become a depression with all that goes with it. Spain has benefitted considerably by being a part of the EU, as has Greece. That we have helped those countries prosper without any appreciable detriment to us is commendable and many have enjoyed holidays in parts of Spain which no-one had heard of before Spain opened itself up to mass tourism in the latter part of the last century.

The EU is supporting those countries as it has done with other countries and that is why neither of them has collapsed completely. In Greece, radical government economic policies are now in place which should assist that country back to fiscal equilibrium. In time, normality will return in Spain and Greece, thanks to the support of the other member states.

In short, the EU, far from being responsible for the plight of those countries, is actually proving to be the saviour of them. The EU, therefore, is performing well, looking after the interests of those two countries - their own governments have responsibility for their own people. They are, like the UK, a sovereign state within a fantastic confederation of nation states.

(Just seen flecc's post)

Tom

 

[gray198]

Thanks, I don't disagree with this, but the push for union has not caused the economic troubles of the Southern Countries. They have each in similar ways brought this upon themselves. They knew what they were joining but were not prepared to act responsibly as a part of the EU.

Instead they treated it as a gravy train providing a good living with minimal effort. Inevitably that led to the ever greater economic disparity which they sought to get out of by borrowing. That's always an unwise solution as we in the UK are now finding out as we struggle to cope with our ever growing national debt.

If each country had approached their EU membership with the same attitude and effort that Germany did, they too would have succeeded.
.

Don't you think that the EU was irresponsible in allowing it to happen. They must have seen what was happening, but allowed it to continue. Maybe because they knew it would give them even more power over those countries and their population.

 

[BrendanJ]

Don't you think that the EU was irresponsible in allowing it to happen. They must have seen what was happening, but allowed it to continue. Maybe because they knew it would give them even more power over those countries and their population.

Talking about who is to blame misses the point. the structure of Europe, its governance, its focus and the fact of monetary union without fiscal union. create deep fault lines that are splitting it apart

 

[flecc]

Don't you think that the EU was irresponsible in allowing it to happen. They must have seen what was happening, but allowed it to continue.

No, of course not, the EU had no option since they do not directly control the individual member countries. This where Brexiters constantly make the same mistakes in thinking they do. The EU only provides a framework for compatibility between member countries. Within that framework each member has total autonomy, exercising it's democracy.

That's demonstrated by the last fiscal rescue of Greece. The EU couldn't directly lend them money and couldn't force anyone else to do so, all they could do is encourage that. Eventually Germany agreed to once again, but only by making it a condition the Greeks accept changes in their economic policies. So even then the Greeks had autonomy, since they could have refused the German conditions and gone bankrupt, or they could have left the EU and euro and returned to the drachma, their choice.

Your thinking that the EU should have intervened is the very thing that Brexiters (and indeed Remainers) want least, totally undemocratic EU control.
.

 

[trex]

Talking about who is to blame misses the point. the structure of Europe, its governance, its focus and the fact of monetary union without fiscal union. create deep fault lines that are splitting it apart

monetary union and fiscal union are only for the Eurozone members. My guess is that the EU will wise up after seeing the mistakes made by Eurozone countries. I personally would like the EU to drop its utopian goals and adopt a more practical approach to freedom of movement, giving the nationals a little bit more protection and rights than other EU citizens.

 

[BrendanJ]

monetary union and fiscal union are only for the Eurozone members. My guess is that the EU will wise up after seeing the mistakes made by Eurozone countries. I personally would like the EU to drop its utopian goals and adopt a more practical approach to freedom of movement, giving the nationals a little bit more protection and rights than other EU citizens.

I agree. As long as European project is a work in progress, then a pragmatic and staged approach is required , not simply a headstrong rush to a federation that can also kill the project as well as achieve it, (whatever your point of view)
It is true that one important step is full fiscal union but of course the Germans are not ready for that
I don't know of many marriages that can survive such pressures if one partner holds all the cash and control everything, even if the wife is feckless, divorce will surely follow

 

[(NoLongerRegistered#15675)]

Seems many posting on here know more about economics than Mark Carney. In nutshell his extended statement said nobody really knew the long term effects of Brexit. His only negative point being " it could cause short term financial instability".
If the country succeeds economically it will neither be because or in spite of Brexit or staying.
KTM did quote a well written cohesive statement which was ultimately biased. The writer was plainly in support of staying but followed age old recipe of feigning impartiality to gain acceptance and then quote the coup de grace...he wants to stay and wants others to think same.
The stayers are playing the game just as much as any, if not more. Its developed on here that if you want out then by association you are " racist" or at best xenophobic. Utter cobblers.
Democracy is a terrible form of governance...but uts better than rest. Our country in years to come will not be governed from Westminster. The process is already happening, the faceless bureaucrats, for our part unelected, are playing a bigger and bigger part in our lives.
Why do stayers not want to be governed by our Parliament ??? I do not want a United States Of Europe. I,m happy with UK faults and all.
Where will staying get us in 10 ; 20 ; 50 years? Governed from Brussels by politicians you have never known or probably heard of.
If anybody does not think Brussels are governing us just take for example Camerons last attempt at cutting immigration. Our government decided ,rightly or wrongly, to insist immigrants had to have work to come to before gaining entry. I,m not saying I agree with that but what I strongly disagree with is the bloke we voted to govern us,had his decision vetoed. Fair enough disagree with his decision in first place ( or agree if you like) but fact is he had no power to decide either way. That's wrong. He is no longer in charge is he? And who is..? EU bureucrats.

 

[anotherkiwi]

Given the high unemployment rate in Spain of 20%, Greece 25% against our 5% the EU can hardly be said to serving it's citizens.

I have stayed out of your conversations to date but I do have a few remarks:

The two countries above have the highest rates of tax evasion and corruption in the Euro zone. Does that mean that I am linking tax evasion and corruption to high levels of unemployment? Yes I am! France with 10% unemployed is doing pretty well in the tax evasion department also...

I love Spain and the quality of life there. I have been following the "after Franco" since 1979 or so because my best friend in Europe is Spanish. The Spanish have great dignity in their hardship, picket signs reading "A job, bread and a roof" I can relate to. Spanish youth have been short sold by politicians from the left, the right and the well-off moving their wealth to tax havens instead of investing in their own country. I think Greece may be in a similar situation.

I have never considered the UK to be a "real" member of the EU, at least not like Ireland, you are either in the common currency and member or hanger on IMO. The City has gotten plenty rich speculating against the Euro, I haven't seen that wealth earned on the back of the EU mentioned in any posts here? I bet it adds up to much more than you are putting back in...

My neighbour is a young Moldavian, he is washing dishes in a restaurant for the minimum wage. His boss said (from another source we know) that he would have preferred hiring a young Basque but he can't find one willing to work that hard for that kind of money... Polite and well brought up, very nice young man trying hard to make his way in the world, that is my vision of a migrant from the east.

 

[oldgroaner]

Seems many posting on here know more about economics than Mark Carney. In nutshell his extended statement said nobody really knew the long term effects of Brexit. His only negative point being " it could cause short term financial instability".
If the country succeeds economically it will neither be because or in spite of Brexit or staying.
KTM did quote a well written cohesive statement which was ultimately biased. The writer was plainly in support of staying but followed age old recipe of feigning impartiality to gain acceptance and then quote the coup de grace...he wants to stay and wants others to think same.
The stayers are playing the game just as much as any, if not more. Its developed on here that if you want out then by association you are " racist" or at best xenophobic. Utter cobblers.
Democracy is a terrible form of governance...but uts better than rest. Our country in years to come will not be governed from Westminster. The process is already happening, the faceless bureaucrats, for our part unelected, are playing a bigger and bigger part in our lives.
Why do stayers not want to be governed by our Parliament ??? I do not want a United States Of Europe. I,m happy with UK faults and all.
Where will staying get us in 10 ; 20 ; 50 years? Governed from Brussels by politicians you have never known or probably heard of.
If anybody does not think Brussels are governing us just take for example Camerons last attempt at cutting immigration. Our government decided ,rightly or wrongly, to insist immigrants had to have work to come to before gaining entry. I,m not saying I agree with that but what I strong disagree with is the bloke we voted to govern us,had his decision vetoed. Fair enough disagree with his decision in first place ( or agree if you like) but fact is he had no power to decide either way. That's wrong. He is no longer in charge is he? And who is..? EU bureucrats.

This is interesting, as personally I can find no reason whatsoever to put any faith in Government from London rather than from the Moon, where at least if anyone is up there they will be able to perceive that the greater part of the British isles are outside the M25.
The rule of the Westminster Bubble seems fixed in stone, and frankly we have had a far better and fairer deal on legislation that originated in Brussels for a least a generation than anything that came out of the
House of Comedians in London.
Their idea of patriotism is to clutch power to their collective chests and to hell with the population, with a motto that could well be
"Why go elsewhere to be swindled? we're your friends!"
They are in fact as Cromwell put it so long ago.
"Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation. You were deputed here by the people to get grievances redressed, are yourselves become the greatest grievance. "
And what he said then is relevant today.
The rule of Westminster fading away? thank heavens for that!
Imagine what America would be like if individual states decided to secede.
It was tried by the southern states and we know what happened next.
The most outrageous recent claim from the Brexit side was that Europe was intent of having a European Army, and we should have nothing to do with it.
One might ask if it does , why would the Americans lend their might to sponsor NATO? they will drop it like a hot stone.
And of course the wisdom of choosing not to be part of it's replacement (The European Army) but to place ourselves in a position where we might have to face a Pan European Army as an Enemy must be one of the biggest military blunders of all time.
A United States of Europe is in fact almost inevitable, in time. We can either join or make an enemy of it, and which, may I ask is the wiser choice?
Not a difficult question, is it?
And why do you think the EU is not Democratic? what grounds have you for believing that when the facts say otherwise?

 

[Gubbins]

One of the Brexit points is turkey joining the eu and although we have heard plenty of the possible negative implications of this no one one has asked why they want to join....

 

[(NoLongerRegistered#15675)]

Which " facts" indicate any type if democracy eminating from Brussels ???
UK has spent a thousand years and numerous wars to gain / maintain self governance and democracy and we contemplate just handing it all over ??? How many folk live I Europe ?? Approaching a billion I,d guess.( 750kk last estimate 2013 750kk. And you seriously suggest UK with its none European culture could have any rral representation ?? At best doubtful but why?
UK is a thriving country , with skilled population and a working model I democracy. Why just drift into loosing it ?? What are real benefits ?? If it ain't broke dint mend . Staying in EU will change it, albeit slowly but the writing is on wall.
I,ve nothing against Spain, France or anywhere but why share governance ?
If folk really want to be part of Europe I,m sure France would welcome you??