Brexit, for once some facts.

[flecc]

But not in the UK. Our car industry like almost everything here definitely is in decline (which of course isn't the same as car ownership necessarily declining in the long run in the rest of the world)

As said previously, that is the point I am making, that reduced car ownership is the UK's background policy. The EU and many of its members have the same aim. No more making cheap cars sold at a loss, the industry and governments here have a new model, make less cars expensively with more profit, neatly fitting all objectives including climate change.

GM aren't playing ball so have departed completely. Toyota are stubbornly clinging onto their so-called self charging concept which will take them largely out of our market in less than six years time. Ford announced they were considering quitting Europe too, but now look like they are staying for the e-car switchover but without investing here, e.g. Bridgend i.c. plant closed, no corresponding investment in e-car tech. They've anounced that all i.c. production will end 2030, so goodbye £18k Fiesta, £23k Focus, hello £47k Mustang Mach-e. VW likewise, goodbye Polos and Golfs,. hello ID 3 and ID 4 at two to three times the price.

That's the same across all makers. The cars are not the problem, we will be able to make them cheaper than i.c. cars. It's the batteries that won't get cheaper as they constantly have to become larger in capacity to meet the needs. Forget new tech, after taking 200 years via numerous false dawns to get from limited lead-acid to barely adequate lithium, we should have learnt by now how impossibly difficult battery tech progress is.

I'm not interested in what the rest of the world does since we cannot modify that. But if Biden's aim is cheap e-cars for US conditions/distances, that is never going to happen. They too will ultimately have to face some uncomfortable truths. It's already happening, their young people too have been increasingly abandoning car ownership aspirations just as they've been doing here, and they are tomorrows world.

LINK , plenty more online.
.

 

[flecc]

Nissan ARIYA anyone? 90kwH battery.
I wonder how much it will cost.

Starting at £46,090 for most basic spec. The Leaf it is replacing had a basic model at half that before they discontinued it.
.

 

[jonathan.agnew]

As said previously, that is the point I am making, that reduced car ownership is the UK's background policy. The EU and many of its members have the same aim. No more making cheap cars sold at a loss, the industry and governments here have a new model, make less cars expensively with more profit, neatly fitting all objectives including climate change.

GM aren't playing ball so have departed completely. Toyota are stubbornly clinging onto their so-called self charging concept which will take them largely out of our market in less than six years time. Ford announced they were considering quitting Europe too, but now look like they are staying for the e-car switchover but without investing here, e.g. Bridgend i.c. plant closed, no corresponding investment in e-car tech. They've anounced that all i.c. production will end 2030, so goodbye £18k Fiesta, £23k Focus, hello £47k Mustang Mach-e. VW likewise, goodbye Polos and Golfs,. hello ID 3 and ID 4 at two to three times the price.

That's the same across all makers. The cars are not the problem, we will be able to make them cheaper than i.c. cars. It's the batteries that won't get cheaper as they constantly have to become larger in capacity to meet the needs. Forget new tech, after taking 200 years via numerous false dawns to get from limited lead-acid to barely adequate lithium, we should have learnt by now how impossibly difficult battery tech progress is.

I'm not interested in what the rest of the world does since we cannot modify that. But if Biden's aim is cheap e-cars for US conditions/distances, that is never going to happen. They too will ultimately have to face some uncomfortable truths. It's already happening, their young people too have been increasingly abandoning car ownership aspirations just as they've been doing here, and they are tomorrows world.

LINK , plenty more online.
.

I cant speak for other world citizens either (even less so for those in uk). But the whole thing can be idiosyncratic (I can speak for myself). I'm about buy a 22kwh zoe cheaply to leave in calabria after obsessing a lot (its cosmetically challenged so cheap, zoe's are not generally reliable - most have suspension problems, but this one seems ok - but they have actively cooled batteries which generally as a result only loose 1 to 2% a year, which matter in toe of italy that gets tropically sweltering in august). Two things occurred to me after a lengthy (hard) test drive (know the previous owner who didnt mind): 22kwh is enough (reliable 80 mile range and because of active cooling takes rapid charge repeatedly, one could even do a road trip in it reliably), second was wondering why I felt obsessed with bigger battery capacity before.
In a world in whic consumers all want to replace their ageing micras with super powered hypercar behemoths (like taycans or teslas) ev ownership would go down. But I'm not sure any of that's reasonable. On a quite modest income I've inadvertently ended up owning several entirely functional ev

 

[flecc]

I cant speak for other world citizens either (even less so for those in uk). But the whole thing can be idiosyncratic (I can speak for myself). I'm about buy a 22kwh zoe cheaply to leave in calabria after obsessing a lot (its cosmetically challenged so cheap, zoe's are not generally reliable - most have suspension problems, but this one seems ok - but they have actively cooled batteries which generally as a result only loose 1 to 2% a year, which matter in toe of italy that gets tropically sweltering in august). Two things occurred to me after a lengthy (hard) test drive (know the previous owner who didnt mind): 22kwh is enough (reliable 80 mile range and because of active cooling takes rapid charge repeatedly, one could even do a road trip in it reliably), second was wondering why I felt obsessed with bigger battery capacity before.
In a world in whic consumers all want to replace their ageing micras with super powered hypercar behemoths (like taycans or teslas) ev ownership would go down. But I'm not sure any of that's reasonable. On a quite modest income I've inadvertently ended up owning several entirely functional ev

You wouldn't get anything close to 80 miles from your 22 kW in our recent near zero degrees and this applies to the whole northern half the EU area. Zoe included, zero degrees equals range plummetting by over 40% even with a new battery.

And as for doing what you've been doing, we can't manufacture older second hand EVs. They've only existed for you because there's been enough buying them expensively new for the small numbers like you. There won't be anything like enough doing that in future to supply the present new and used car cheap mass markets,

Do the maths, there's going to be a great big hole in the supply side. Not instantly of course, but from about 15 years from now it will start to appear and then rapidly get even more gaping.

And don't forget to include the increasingly urgent 2050 and climate change actions and their effects on living standards and wealth in your thinking. Cars dont exist in isolation, they are part of an increasingly difficult range of future options.

As this from the last link I posted (deliberately an old one) said:

"the longer these young people go without cars, the easier time they have adjusting to life without one."

That's something that has already happened in London. My onetime young friends who abandoned cars long ago are now in their fifties, still car less and not wanting one again.
.

 

[Danidl]

As said previously, that is the point I am making, that reduced car ownership is the UK's background policy. The EU and many of its members have the same aim. No more making cheap cars sold at a loss, the industry and governments here have a new model, make less cars expensively with more profit, neatly fitting all objectives including climate change.

GM aren't playing ball so have departed completely. Toyota are stubbornly clinging onto their so-called self charging concept which will take them largely out of our market in less than six years time. Ford announced they were considering quitting Europe too, but now look like they are staying for the e-car switchover but without investing here, e.g. Bridgend i.c. plant closed, no corresponding investment in e-car tech. They've anounced that all i.c. production will end 2030, so goodbye £18k Fiesta, £23k Focus, hello £47k Mustang Mach-e. VW likewise, goodbye Polos and Golfs,. hello ID 3 and ID 4 at two to three times the price.

That's the same across all makers. The cars are not the problem, we will be able to make them cheaper than i.c. cars. It's the batteries that won't get cheaper as they constantly have to become larger in capacity to meet the needs. Forget new tech, after taking 200 years via numerous false dawns to get from limited lead-acid to barely adequate lithium, we should have learnt by now how impossibly difficult battery tech progress is.

I'm not interested in what the rest of the world does since we cannot modify that. But if Biden's aim is cheap e-cars for US conditions/distances, that is never going to happen. They too will ultimately have to face some uncomfortable truths. It's already happening, their young people too have been increasingly abandoning car ownership aspirations just as they've been doing here, and they are tomorrows world.

LINK , plenty more online.
.

I believe you are wrong regarding the battery technology ... It may not be in either of our lifetimes,but the storage of sufficient electrical energy in an electrochemical cell is on...The current model is for a rechargeable battery pack and that is unsustainable in a mass market longer term Cheaper materials are needed...and that made sense for laptop computers ..which is where Musk sourced his batteries . The obvious solution is Primary Cells , which have much higher Energy to weight ratios. with all the reagents components , both fresh and waste in a sealed package.. Fresh packs are purchased at the garage and inserted , and the depleted bottle is returned at the same time.. The material in the bottle is remanufactured by using a lot of energy and made available to a later customer . It is a tried and tested model and used for bottled gas for carvanners, and laser printer cartridges ... And even used 80 years ago for radio batteries and soda water.
The only decisions are what materials to construct these cells from..and Aluminium metal is a prime contender. It has a higher Energy density than Lithium , and is really abundant.

 

[guerney]

World's Largest Battery Swapping Network

Gogoro Global

Our society is at a tipping point. We need bold solutions and a mindset for change for the next generation. It’s time to rethink how the growing cities of tomorrow distribute, manage and experience energy.

www.gogoro.com

 

[flecc]

I believe you are wrong regarding the battery technology ... It may not be in either of our lifetimes,but the storage of sufficient electrical energy in an electrochemical cell is on...The current model is for a rechargeable battery pack ..and that made sense for laptop computers ..which is where Musk sourced his batteries . The obvious solution is Primary Cells , which have much higher Energy to weight ratios. with all the reagents components , both fresh and waste in a sealed package.. Fresh packs are purchased at the garage and inserted , and the depleted bottle is returned at the same time.. The material in the bottle is remanufactured by using a lot of energy and made available to a late customer . It is a tried and tested model and used for bottled gas for carvanners, and laser printer cartridges ... And even used 80 years ago for radio batteries and soda water.

As always when I post on this subject, someone posts an old tried and failed similar technology through not keeping continuously up to date on the subject long term, as I do.

Admittedly the old and current schemes are using rechargeable bateries, but even primary packs will be very large and heavy for good range, needing automated mechanical handling installations. It's those very costly frequent battery swap bases which killed the Renault backed Israeli scheme and are making the similar Chinese scheme stillborn,

And where is the lots of energy coming from for all that cell remanufacturing? I don't see it appearing within at least half a century while trying to deal with climate change issues.

And ask yourself why radio batteries and soda water bottles abandoned this methodology so long ago.

I see us continuing to use lithium secondary batteries for around three decades from now. This is because it's already the embedded system, getting more so by the day, and has a valuable second life in homes with vehicle to grid for relieving energy peak demands. Over a longer time hydrogen fuel cells will gradually take over, already here for longer bus routes, but we have to solve the hydrogen large scale supply problems first.
.

 

[jonathan.agnew]

As always when I post on this subject, someone posts an old tried and failed similar technology through not keeping continuously up to date on the subject long term, as I do.

Admittedly the old and current schemes are using rechargeable bateries, but even primary packs will be very large and heavy for good range, needing automated mechanical handling installations. It's those very costly frequent battery swap bases which killed the Renault backed Israeli scheme and are making the similar Chinese scheme stillborn,

And where is the lots of energy coming from for all that cell remanufacturing? I don't see it appearing within at least half a century while trying to deal with climate change issues.

And ask yourself why radio batteries and soda water bottles abandoned this methodology so long ago.

I see us continuing to use lithium secondary batteries for around three decades from now. This is because it's already the embedded system, getting more so by the day, and has a valuable second life in homes with vehicle to grid for relieving energy peak demands. Over a longer time hydrogen fuel cells will gradually take over, already here for longer bus routes, but we have to solve the hydrogen large scale supply problems first.
.

I blame anomie and relative deprivation. Everyone wanting to emulate life as imagined by musk and lived in affluent parts of silicon Valley. There's a reason the dacia spring sells well on the continent

2024 Dacia Spring: price, specs and release date

The Dacia Spring Electric aims to bring EVs to the masses with a starting price of just £14,995.

heycar.co.uk

and solar panels will provide the circa 6 or 7kwh I'll need to do 20 miles a day in a zoe in calabria

 

[flecc]

There's a reason the dacia spring sells well on the continent

Remember the €5000 Ami, well over £8000 here!

The Dacia Spring will be at least £15,000 here and it's very limited. Maximum speed 65 mph and will be much slower uphill. The ideal conditions range claim of 140 miles will be nearer 100 miles in summer for most and could be down to 60 miles in the coldest winter days. Smaller battery means more stress and shorter battery life.

All in all and like the Ami, not the bargain it seems at first glance. In fact I see it as poor value with those very
real compromises.
.

 

[jonathan.agnew]

In fact I see it as poor value with those very
real compromises.
.
[/QUOTE]
Ahem, yes, did I mention relative deprivation? Or as Arnie said "compared to what?" (after the guy asked him "if his wife was OK?" after she lost consciousness on the plane). Although, to be fair, renault has a knack for grasping defeat from the jaws of victory - not giving the twizy proper doors, the zoe's terrible euroncap, the spring's even worse euroncap, not giving the ami twice the battery capacity and a 50mph top speed..

 

[flecc]

renault has a knack for grasping defeat from the jaws of victory - not giving the twizy proper doors, the zoe's terrible euroncap, the spring's even worse euroncap, not giving the ami twice the battery capacity and a 50mph top speed..

Indeed. If the Ami at £8000 had just 50% more battery, a genuine 35 mph top speed and a simple heater, I'd be driving one now instead of the Leaf. But 28 mph at best and often much less in our suburban traffic, plus no heater in our climate was unacceptable.

I'd even have bought the Twizy if it had proper doors and a simple heater. With those I'm sure it would still be on the market and doing well.

But of course they don't want these to be successful since that would dent their better model sales.
.

 

[Eltommos]

2021 Dacia Spring has a very poor 1 star NCAP Safety rating - one to steer clear of in my opinion

 

[jonathan.agnew]

2021 Dacia Spring has a very poor 1 star NCAP Safety rating - one to steer clear of in my opinion

Yes, though once one begin to dig there's all kinds of genuine concerns with all ev's - tesla has door handles and memory chips that fail (that can leave one locked inside ones own car, literally never to find Peter griffin pretending that as a joke funny again), aluminium bodies (model s) that are a complete expensive pita requiring specialist panel beating to fix after a minor prang, there's worrying accounts of mg's and corrosion, lack of underseal, the new ora cat has had the kind of battery sag new at 25% capacity on a hill anyone with a very cheap Chinese ebike with substandard cells would find worryingly familiar on a reputable recent online road test...

 

[flecc]

2021 Dacia Spring has a very poor 1 star NCAP Safety rating - one to steer clear of in my opinion

When men were men, cars didn't have safety ratings.

As Ettore Bugatti once said to one of his racing drivers who complained about the brakes;

"I build my cars to go, not to stop!"

I don't know what the safety rating of my car is, nor any of the other 32 I've had. When any one rings for a minicab, do they ask make and model and check the safety rating before booking it?

Safety ratings are a load of small spherical dangly objects.
.

 

[Danidl]

As always when I post on this subject, someone posts an old tried and failed similar technology through not keeping continuously up to date on the subject long term, as I do.

Admittedly the old and current schemes are using rechargeable bateries, but even primary packs will be very large and heavy for good range, needing automated mechanical handling installations. It's those very costly frequent battery swap bases which killed the Renault backed Israeli scheme and are making the similar Chinese scheme stillborn,

And where is the lots of energy coming from for all that cell remanufacturing? I don't see it appearing within at least half a century while trying to deal with climate change issues.

And ask yourself why radio batteries and soda water bottles abandoned this methodology so long ago.

I see us continuing to use lithium secondary batteries for around three decades from now. This is because it's already the embedded system, getting more so by the day, and has a valuable second life in homes with vehicle to grid for relieving energy peak demands. Over a longer time hydrogen fuel cells will gradually take over, already here for longer bus routes, but we have to solve the hydrogen large scale supply problems first.
.

Taking my example of aluminium metal as the fuel , in a . REDOX reaction with atmospheric oxygen, the energy storage dwarfs lithium on an energy weight or Energy. Volume basis. , Currently 5 times better and potentially ? 8100/260 times better. The waste product is a gloop ,which can be captured in a flexible waterproof sack, and returned for refining and recovery.. The aluminium can be pellets or foil.. The energy to reduce the gloop back to metallic aluminium , is the energy storage+ remanufacturing process.
The error , if it can be called that , with the battery swop concept , was that the cost of the batteries was unacceptable CAPEX..and changing a battery 4 times to get from London to Edinburgh, was excessive.
Perhaps you are not up to date, but SodaStreams, make incessant comebacks ,and I actually use bottled butane gas for our hob.
Lithium ion will probably remain a favourite technology for very small portable devices ... Including tablets, phones and watches. In fact there would be a continuing market in cars for the regeneration of energy in braking..
At present you are correct that lithium is getting an innings in domestic energy storage, ..but that is unlikely to last... Again it's cost and lifetime which is against it. There are plenty of other cheaper materials available ..and grid storage is extremely price sensitive ....It why I decided not to include a battery pack. Aluminium Sulphur is a potential competitor, at a domestic level and antimony Calcium at the utility level.

 

[Eltommos]

When men were men, cars didn't have safety ratings.

As Ettore Bugatti once said to one of his racing drivers who complained about the brakes;

"I build my cars to go, not to stop!"

I don't know what the safety rating of my car is, nor any of the other 32 I've had. When any one rings for a minicab, do they ask make and model and check the safety rating before booking it?

Safety ratings are a load of small spherical dangly objects.
.

I can understand if you are not aware of Euro NCAP safety ratings - for whatever reason! - but maybe it would be a good idea for you to consider how safe cars are from a crash safety point of view, not only for the driver and occupants but also for pedestrians as well - especially as you have mentioned you are a minicab driver. During the past 40 years working in the Automotive Body Structure Design and Engineering Industry - I've witnessed many vehicle safety crash tests performed to meet all of the safety regulations. I've also seen, sadly, a number of crash fatalities - not a pleasant sight I can tell you. Euro NCAP safety reports can be accessed from this link: Euro NCAP | The European New Car Assessment Programme

2012 Dacia Spring Euro NCAP report link below - read the summary!
Assessment details (euroncap.com)

 

[flecc]

Perhaps you are not up to date, but SodaStreams, make incessant comebacks ,and I actually use bottled butane gas for our hob.

I'm up to date on this as well and have owned a Sodastream, but it soon became yet another not worthwhile discarded household gadget as almost all those sold quickly became. Too inconvenient and entirely unnecessary when all could afford the ready made and better articles everywhere. Bottled gas is a very different issue from batteries of course.

You are obviously an extreme optimist on technological progress, but I'm a pessimist. The overwhelming numbers of failures to progress proves me right, most especially with batteries.
.

 

[flecc]

I can understand if you are not aware of Euro NCAP safety ratings - for whatever reason! - but maybe it would be a good idea for you to consider how safe cars are from a crash safety point of view, not only for the driver and occupants but also for pedestrians as well - especially as you have mentioned you are a minicab driver. During the past 40 years working in the Automotive Body Structure Design and Engineering Industry - I've witnessed many vehicle safety crash tests performed to meet all of the safety regulations. I've also seen, sadly, a number of crash fatalities - not a pleasant sight I can tell you. Euro NCAP safety reports can be accessed from this link: Euro NCAP | The European New Car Assessment Programme

2012 Dacia Spring Euro NCAP report link below - read the summary!
Assessment details (euroncap.com)

Where did that come from!!! I'm not a minicab driver never have been and never would be! I am in fact far more familiar with everything motor vehicle than you think since my original trade was as a motor vehicle mechanic with many years of experience on cars and trucks.

I'm fully aware of NCAP and the potential gains from design improvements, but they are only gains when realised. Those like me who never put an NCAP rating to the test, experience no gains.

I was pulling your leg of course since many have gained. However I do think there's far too much obsession with safety now by a nation of wimps who actually cause accidents with their safety obsessions. It is well documented and demonstrated how the safer a person feels, the more risks they are likely to take, and the RRL gave shown how this increases speeds and accident rates.

And cycling has a mass of evidence, even in this forum, of how true this is.

Back to that Dacia, I'd be entirely happy to drive one since I wouldn't be taking advantage of its NCAP rating.
.

 

[soundwave]

this is the problem.

i have found a solution for lamp posts

junkie tied to a lamppost

www.youtube.com

 

[jonathan.agnew]

I can understand if you are not aware of Euro NCAP safety ratings - for whatever reason! - but maybe it would be a good idea for you to consider how safe cars are from a crash safety point of view, not only for the driver and occupants but also for pedestrians as well - especially as you have mentioned you are a minicab driver. During the past 40 years working in the Automotive Body Structure Design and Engineering Industry - I've witnessed many vehicle safety crash tests performed to meet all of the safety regulations. I've also seen, sadly, a number of crash fatalities - not a pleasant sight I can tell you. Euro NCAP safety reports can be accessed from this link: Euro NCAP | The European New Car Assessment Programme

2012 Dacia Spring Euro NCAP report link below - read the summary!
Assessment details (euroncap.com)

Where did that come from!!! I'm not a minicab driver never have been and never would be! I am in fact far more familiar with everything motor vehicle than you think since my original trade was as a motor vehicle mechanic with many years of experience on cars and trucks.

I'm fully aware of NCAP and the potential gains from design improvements, but they are only gains when realised. Those like me who never put an NCAP rating to the test, experience no gains.

I was pulling your leg of course since many have gained. However I do think there's far too much obsession with safety now by a nation of wimps who actually cause accidents with their safety obsessions. It is well documented and demonstrated how the safer a person feels, the more risks they are likely to take, and the RRL gave shown how this increases speeds and accident rates.

And cycling has a mass of evidence, even in this forum, of how true this is.

Back to that Dacia, I'd be entirely happy to drive one since I wouldn't be taking advantage of its NCAP rating.
.

Without wanting to derail an informative argument, something caught my (more than a little autistic) eye: spring and 22kwh (nominal 25.9kwh) zoe are similar sized (with similar weighing battery packs). And evidently neither are weighed down by unnecessary crumple zones. But the spring weighs 970kg )very little for an ev) and 22kwh zoe 1550kg. Wtf did renault add to zoes?

Dacia Spring Super Cheap EV Is Safer Than Renault Zoe

The Chinese-made Dacia Spring was awarded more stars than the Renault Zoe by Euro NCAP, ending the notion that cars from China are unsafe.

insideevs.com