Brexit, for once some facts.

[Woosh]

It's only the view back home that counts, and that is not remotely like the western media spin from a minority of Russian vox pops

dictators tend to rely on corrupting a small circle of people in order to control the apparatus of the state, to pass draconian laws, curb the press, torture dissidents, control who has access to the resources etc. Those people are a lot more sensitive to the idea of winners and losers. It won't take them much to organise a palace revolution to rid them of a future liability.

 

[flecc]

dictators tend to rely on corrupting a small circle of people in order to control the apparatus of the state, to pass draconian laws, curb the press, torture dissidents, control who has access to the resources etc. Those people are a lot more sensitive to the idea of winners and losers. It won't take them much to organise a palace revolution to rid them of a future liability.

But of Putin's small circle, all but one backed his attack on Ukraine. So we can be sure that one will be watched like a hawk and the rest won't admit to being a loser any more than Putin will,

Depending on the progress from now, the closing propaganda on Ukraine will go one of two ways:

1) It was a triumph for both Russia and Ukraine.

2) Russia ultimately succeeded despite the whole of the West ganging up against it by flooding Ukraine's nazi elements with all their latest arms. This has the advantage of being verifiably true in part.
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[Woosh]

2) Russia ultimately succeeded despite the whole of the West ganging up against it by flooding Ukraine's nazi elements with all their latest arms. This has the advantage of being verifiably true in part.

is it fair to put all Ukrainian army and volunteers into the Nazi basket?

 

[flecc]

is it fair to put all Ukrainian army and volunteers into the Nazi basket?

Of course not, virtually none of them are. But the Russian propaganda will say what they see necessary to fit their agenda. The fact that the west did pour in the latest defence weapons, as all their troops saw, has inadvertantly immensely helped the Russian propaganda to convince their public.
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[Woosh]

Of course not, virtually none of them are. But the Russian propaganda will say what they see necessary to fit their agenda. The fact that the west did pour in the latest defence weapons, as all their troops saw, has inadvertantly immensely helped the Russian propaganda to convince their public.
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there will be in Russia like elsewhere plenty of people who don't have time for politics and who don't particularly care for one version of history or another. That does not mean that they don't know or suspect they are being lied to, just that until the lies matter in their livelihood then they will stop believing Mr Putin and change their votes.
So it's important that Mr Putin is seen as a loser. China and India will see that, even if they are non-aligned.
Russians will see that too, at the next election unless Putin dies before.

 

[flecc]

there will be in Russia like elsewhere plenty of people who don't have time for politics and who don't particularly care for one version of history or another. That does not mean that they don't know or suspect they are being lied to, just that until the lies matter in their livelihood then they will stop believing Mr Putin and change their votes.
So it's important that Mr Putin is seen as a loser. China and India will see that, even if they are non-aligned.
Russians will see that too, at the next election unless Putin dies before.

We'll see. Some 150,000 troops going home and supporting the propaganda on the western weapons used to such effect will help convince.

Putin doesn't matter, it's how Russia is viewed that counts.

Russia can be a loser but still get the sympathy when the odds are made greatly against them by the west.
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[Woosh]

We'll see. Some 150,000 troops going home and supporting the propaganda on the western weapons used to such effect will help convince.

Putin doesn't matter, it's how Russia is viewed that counts.

Russia can be a loser but still get the sympathy when the odds are made greatly against them by the west.
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I can't see Russia getting the sympathy vote anytime soon from anyone other than those that voted with Russia in the UN. Just look at them: North Korea, Syria, Eritrea are effectively at war themselves and rely on supply from Russia, Belarus is a Russian satellite.
All Putin has achieved is to make NATO stronger and more popular than ever. He has practically lost any initiatives.

 

[flecc]

I can't see Russia getting the sympathy vote anytime soon from anyone other than those that voted with Russia in the UN. Just look at them: North Korea, Syria, Eritrea are effectively at war themselves and rely on supply from Russia, Belarus is a Russian satellite.
All Putin has achieved is to make NATO stronger and more popular than ever. He has practically lost any initiatives.

You are incredibly western biased to the point of blindness. Votes count for nothing, countries act in their own best interests. Just look at all the other sanction busters and Russia friendly countries you haven't mentioned, China, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Hungary, 18 of the 23 African countries. It's not just the presidents of those countries favouring Russia, vast swathes of their populations do too. The evidence is everywhere, but you are blindly refusing to accept it exists.

The further evidence is that the sanctions are already failing, just as they equally did after Crimea, thanks to all those friends. Russia will sell all the oil and gas it needs to and will as usual supply those African countries with grain. They won't have any grain unsold since they'll need to feed the 34 million remaining Ukrainians next year who won't be getting much of a harvest this year, if any. That will be a bitter pill for the Ukrainians to swallow and another propaganda coup for Russia, showing how they cared for the Ukrainians all along as their propaganda said they did.
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[Woosh]

You are incredibly western biased to the point of blindness. Votes count for nothing, countries act in their own best interests. Just look at all the other sanction busters and Russia friendly countries you haven't mentioned, China, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Hungary, 18 of the 23 African countries. It's not just the presidents of those countries favouring Russia, vast swathes of their populations do too. The evidence is everywhere, but you are blindly refusing to accept it exists.

The further evidence is that the sanctions are already failing, just as they equally did after Crimea, thanks to all those friends. Russia will sell all the oil and gas it needs to and will as usual supply those African countries with grain. They won't have any grain unsold since they'll need to feed the 34 million remaining Ukrainians next year who won't be getting much of a harvest this year, if any. That will be a bitter pill for the Ukrainians to swallow and another propaganda coup for Russia, showing how they cared for the Ukrainians all along as their propaganda said they did.
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talking about the obvious:
1. The sanctions on oil and gas make the oil companies companies richer, but who are they? Aramco, PTR, SNP, Exxon, Total, Shell, BP, Chevron, MPC. So do you see Russian companies anywhere?
2. profit from the sale of Russian oil and gas is milked off the Russian economy and invested elsewhere. What does Russia get in return unless it's paid in roubles?
3. Which country is the biggest beneficiary of the war in Ukraine? Answer: the USA. They can fund Zelenskiy for as long as it takes. Putin can't win as long as Ukraine don't want regime change.
4. What is the effect of sanctions on renewables? I'd say Christmas comes early for them!

 

[Danidl]

We'll see. Some 150,000 troops going home and supporting the propaganda on the western weapons used to such effect will help convince.

Putin doesn't matter, it's how Russia is viewed that counts.

Russia can be a loser but still get the sympathy when the odds are made greatly against them by the west.
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What makes you think those troops are going home?. I don't think Putin could afford those guys bad mouthing him to their parents.
What I see happening is that those Ukrainians who have been trained on the latest anti missile systems in Poland and counter battery fire missiles will start using them in Eastern Ukraine. I can also anticipate destruction of some of the Black Sea Russian fleet. The amount of satellite surveillance of these will ensure that everything is known about them.
I have been noticing a fair amount of NATO surveillance aircraft over Poland.
China has remained sitting on the fence. There is no evidence of any flow of material into Russia.

 

[flecc]

talking about the obvious:
1. The sanctions on oil and gas make the oil companies companies richer, but who are they? Aramco, PTR, SNP, Exxon, Total, Shell, BP, Chevron, MPC. So do you see Russian companies anywhere?
2. profit from the sale of Russian oil and gas is milked off the Russian economy and invested elsewhere. What does Russia get in return unless it's paid in roubles?
3. Which country is the biggest beneficiary of the war in Ukraine? Answer: the USA. They can fund Zelenskiy for as long as it takes. Putin can't win as long as Ukraine don't want regime change.
4. What is the effect of sanctions on renewables? I'd say Christmas comes early for them!

I wouldn't disagree with any of that, but it doesn't alter the fact that some 40% of the world does not share the Western view of Russia. Or alter the fact that Russia will handle the sanctions situation with ease, as it always has done.

Russia's immense resources are needed by the world. You can see how dependent Europe has become on oil and gas. All the countries reliant on Russian fertiliser. How desperately dependent the whole world has been on Russian grain for the last two years with the world no longer able to feed itself as the starvation grew. The world aid organisations were no longer able to buy the food needed, not through lack of cash but because the food no longer existed in sufficient quantity thanks to extensive and increasing droughts. With little or no harvest from Ukraine this year due to the war, next year we'll see a truly desperate situation.
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[Danidl]

I wouldn't disagree with any of that, but it doesn't alter the fact that some 40% of the world does not share the Western view of Russia. Or alter the fact that Russia will handle the sanctions situation with ease, as it always has done.

Russia's immense resources are needed by the world. You can see how dependent Europe has become on oil and gas. All the countries reliant on Russian fertiliser. How desperately dependent the whole world has been on Russian grain for the last two years with the world no longer able to feed itself as the starvation grew. The world aid organisations were no longer able to buy the food needed, not through lack of cash but because the food no longer existed in sufficient quantity thanks to extensive and increasing droughts. With little or no harvest from Ukraine this year due yto the war, next year we'll see a truly desperate situation.
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Nothing in your post do I disagree with...

 

[Woosh]

You can see how dependent Europe has become on oil and gas. All the countries reliant on Russian fertiliser.

all that does is to benefit alternatives, wind, solar, even nuclear power.
On fertilisers, I worked for one of those NPK fertiliser companies in the summer break when I was a student.
I can assure you that the world is not short of non-Russian vendors. There is plenty of supply and profiteering.

 

[flecc]

What makes you think those troops are going home?. I don't think Putin could afford those guys bad mouthing him to their parents.

Of course the vast majority of the 150,000 will be going home in due course. There won't be anything like that death toll. Regardless of having superior weapons, if and when the Ukrainians fight back in the south east corner and south to try to expel the Russians from their gains, they'll find what the Russians have just learnt the hard way. That attacking in today's warfare is far more difficult than defence. After all, the Ukrainians haven't had much luck trying to quell the pro Russian forces in Donbass over several years.

As for the bad mouthing, that's a very western biased view. Listening to some of those parents, it's surprising how many are strongly supporting the war, particularly the men. Those against war are most often the women, perhaps not surprisingly.
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[flecc]

all that does is to benefit alternatives, wind, solar, even nuclear power.
On fertilisers, I worked for one of those NPK fertiliser companies in the summer break when I was a student.
I can assure you that the world is not short of non-Russian vendors. There is plenty of supply and profiteering.

Indeed, but the clue is in the word profiteering. The Russian fertiliser supplies are very much cheaper and their client countries can't afford the western luxury priced products. Just another of the reasons those countries are so well disposed to Russia.
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[Woosh]

Indeed, but the clue is in the word profiteering. The Russian fertiliser supplies are very much cheaper and their client countries can't afford the western luxury priced products. Just another of the reasons those countries are so well disposed to Russia.
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It's over dramatised, Western countries import only raw material.
Exporting countries can easily cope.
There is little to do with production capabilities, only profiteering.
Trust me, fertilisers are like oil and gas, prices go up but boilers in the West won't be turned off this year or next.

 

[flecc]

It's over dramatised, Western countries import only raw material.
Exporting countries can easily cope.
There is little to do with production capabilities, only profiteering.
Trust me, fertilisers are like oil and gas, prices go up but boilers in the West won't be turned off this year or next.

You are missing the point again, that Russia's client countries can't afford those high prices so they'll continue to buy gas, oil and fertiliser from Russia, sanctions regardless as they've always done. That point was made once again on today's BBC news, that the EU's politicians are scared of what another round of higher prices for gas and oil will do to their economies so they're carrying on with Russian supplies keeping themselves warm and mobile, hoping to reduce the buying over time as they try to produce more renewables.

Meanwhile, China as a substantial importer of them, has guaranteed to buy all the oil and gas Russia is unable to sell elsewhere, so as always, Russia remains little affected by the sanctions.
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[Woosh]

You are missing the point again, that Russia's client countries can't afford those high prices so they'll continue to buy gas, oil and fertiliser from Russia, sanctions regardless as they've always done.

so what? if Russia gives them extra discount because it has fewer customers, then so much better for them.
Don't take what happens in Sri Lanka is a result of the war in Ukraine.
The point you don't see is the cost of sanctions to the West is much smaller than to Russia.
Russia sells less oil and gas, gets less income. The West simply switch supply sources and profits, its income is mostly same.
Say for example the Saudis get more money for their oil. Where would they spend that money? Not in Russia for sure.

 

[Danidl]

Of course the vast majority of the 150,000 will be going home in due course. There won't be anything like that death toll. Regardless of having superior weapons, if and when the Ukrainians fight back in the south east corner and south to try to expel the Russians from their gains, they'll find what the Russians have just learnt the hard way. That attacking in today's warfare is far more difficult than defence. After all, the Ukrainians haven't had much luck trying to quell the pro Russian forces in Donbass over several years.

As for the bad mouthing, that's a very western biased view. Listening to some of those parents, it's surprising how many are strongly supporting the war, particularly the men. Those against war are most often the women, perhaps not surprisingly.
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When not supporting the War means a 15 year prison term.. of course the men are " supportive," and especially so in any polls and vox pops .. the Russians are not fools. Yes the mothers have different priorities.Remember the effect of the Mother's of the Disappeared in South America?. Now the multiplier effect is what matters . Each soldier has a few brothers and sisters, likewise a few uncles and aunts .

 

[flecc]

The point you don't see is the cost of sanctions to the West is much smaller than to Russia.

I do see that, but recognise it doesn't matter to Russia. With plenty of gas and oil they can just sell more if they wish to get the same income. Excluded from the world financial system they don't need the foreign currency anyway, they have plenty of that stockpiled already, so just some roubles coming in will keep them afloat.
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