Vfr,.. admit it,it was a fair cop, and I did bring you to task over it, but without the persistence of OJ.
Brexit, for once some facts.
- Thread starter flecc
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vfr is obviously under the mistaken impression I will enter into any further discussion with him after his last "when I said Michigan I did not mean all of Michigan" post.
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It was the easiest cop in the ******* world and all he had to do was admit he ****** up and we could have all moved on - instead he is making an absolute fool of himself by thinking anybody around here falls for his "when I said Michigan I did not mean all of Michigan" nonsense.
Again - very good at correcting others but not so hot when the spotlight is on his own mistakes.
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[/QUOTE]
Rural electorate zones were small numbers , and mainly Trump.
Urban zones were large numbers ,and mainly Biden.
And of course, being bigger ,the counts take longer.
Even some Urban zones which were conservative ,would split their preferences ,voting GoP on most issues but Biden for President. Its the way with cities ,they follow trends quicker, and it is where Universities and Hospitals are based.
Now I have answered this about 3 times, and my patience with slow learners is not infinite.
[/QUOTE]
I have already answered this a few times..and on the election night the CNN guru Mr King with his "magic " board was predicting it and showing it happening in real time.
Rural electorate zones were small numbers , and mainly Trump.
Urban zones were large numbers ,and mainly Biden.
And of course, being bigger ,the counts take longer.
Even some Urban zones which were conservative ,would split their preferences ,voting GoP on most issues but Biden for President. Its the way with cities ,they follow trends quicker, and it is where Universities and Hospitals are based.
Now I have answered this about 3 times, and my patience with slow learners is not infinite.
OK - enough vfr bashing (for now).
Let's get back to the original topic of this thread..... Brexit!
I read this today and - of course given I voted leave - liked it a lot:
"I hate to admit it, but the Remainiacs were right. Everything that they said would happen, has happened. The traumatised economy. The emergency budgets. The empty shelves. The closed borders.
Of course, the cause of these misfortunes is Covid-19, not Brexit. And thus the main event of the last few years has become a sideshow in 2020. As a result, the anti-Brexiteers have struggled to promote their narrative. However, with the Brexit negotiations coming to a head, one of their talking points is now bound to be heard — which is that, deal or no deal, we’re leaving the EU at the worst possible time. Who needs an extra set of complications when we’ve got a pandemic to deal with?
It’s a reasonable argument, but one that overlooks the counterfactual. Had the referendum gone the other way our continuing membership of the EU would have caused a different set of complications. Indeed, we’d be in a worse situation than we are now.
If Remain had won in 2016, it’s hard to say who’d be Prime Minister in 2020, but whoever the lucky person, he or she would have had a European nightmare to deal with. Not Brexit, but Britain’s involvement in the EU’s Covid rescue plan.
Consider what actually happened in Europe this year. While every country has suffered, some have suffered more than others. Those trapped by the constraints of the eurozone are in a particular bind — because they can’t devalue their currency or print money. Therefore they need help from their fellow member states.
Just what sort of help (and how much) was the subject of a high-stakes drama back in the spring and summer. Though we barely paid attention to it on this side of the Channel, it was a showdown between the “frugal four” nations (the Netherlands, Austria, Denmark and Sweden) and the Covid-racked countries of Southern Europe, especially Italy.
Even before the virus, Italy was in dire straits, condemned to stagnation thanks to the eurozone. Covid turned that crisis into an emergency, so something had to be done. The Dutch and their allies, however, were not happy about having to bail out the southerners again — and certainly not in the midst of their own national emergencies. In the end, the French and Germans forced a compromise, but not before Mark Rutte — the Dutch PM — was painted as the cold-hearted villain of the piece.
Now, let’s replay these events — only this time with Britain still in the EU. The frugal four would have been a frugal five — and the chief villain would have been the British PM. Indeed, if we’d been part of these negotiations, an already bitter dispute would have become something much worse — because the Franco-German proposal would have been impossible for Britain to accept.
The actual rescue package consists of €750 billion in grants and loans. The necessary funds are to be borrowed by the European Commission from the money markets, with the liability shared among all EU member states. Thus, assuming a similar package in the no-Brexit scenario, there’d have been two poison pills for the UK.
Firstly, money: we’d be paying tens of billions towards a “recovery fund” whose ultimate purpose is to bail out the eurozone. British eurosceptics have long warned that monetary union is inherently fragile to asymmetric shocks; that’s why everyone from Gordon Brown to Nigel Farage fought so hard to keep us out of the single currency. Yet, without Brexit, there we’d be, paying to prop it up anyway.
The second poison pill is about power: allowing the Commission to borrow hundreds of billions of Euros is a massive step towards fiscal integration, and hence a fully-fledged superstate. Of course, because of Brexit, that’s the EU’s business, not ours. But what if Brexit hadn’t happened and it was our business?
Back in 2016, the Government promised us that the “UK will not be part of a further European political integration” and that no “UK powers can be transferred to the EU in the future without a referendum”. Well, giving Brussels the ability to borrow vast sums of money is about as political as it gets, involving the transfer of national powers to the EU because agreeing to underwrite someone else’s borrowing reduces how much you can borrow in your own name. Thus, had we stayed in, the promise would have been broken — a nation of reluctant Remainers betrayed.
A Conservative Prime Minister would have faced a full-scale party revolt — including Cabinet resignations and backbench defections. Therefore, he or she would have no choice but to block the deal. There’d also be overwhelming pressure from the EU to let the deal through, and as the Greeks can tell you, the masters of the eurozone will do “whatever it takes” to save the single currency. All blackmail options would have been on the table — including an end to Britain’s budgetary rebate.
In other words, an irresistible force would have met an immovable object. And whenever that happens, something breaks — most likely the British Government. In the middle of a pandemic.
Back in the real world, we need to ask whether the rescue package is enough to keep the Italians and others afloat through the brutal recovery period that lies ahead. The answer is probably not — and, in fact, the cracks are beginning to show. In the run-up to this week’s EU summit, Poland and Hungary are threatening to veto the recovery fund and the entire EU budget. Even if that’s just brinksmanship, there’s a deeper problem.
While the recipient countries are happy to help themselves to the grant component of the fund, they’re not so keen on the loans — because these come with onerous conditions. Instead, the recipients have been borrowing the money they need on the open market, thus circumventing the conditions they object to. They’re able to do this at a low interest rate because of the European Central Bank buying up debt issued by eurozone member states.
And so the weaker economies have been filling their boots, which is the sort of thing that got the eurozone into trouble before. The ECB could crack down by cutting off bond purchases. However, this could trigger the sovereign debt crisis the Bank is so desperate to avoid.
It would be easier for Brussels and Frankfurt to keep things under control if any extra money required over-and-above the €750 billion were also to be borrowed and doled out by the European Commission. There’s no immediate proposal for this to happen, but having crossed the fiscal Rubicon once already, the next trip to the money markets will be much easier — and the trip after that. I wouldn’t want to bet my house on this summer’s rescue package being a one-time deal.
Covid has taken all the old imbalances and fragilities in the eurozone and made them worse. Further bail-outs are all but inevitable. Given the new model for raising emergency funds, it’s just as well we’re no longer on the hook.
The words “post-Brexit Britain” conjure up an unfamiliar environment fraught with danger. By voting to leave, we’ve supposedly condemned ourselves to a future full of uncertainty, while our neighbours remain secure within the European Union. But as we’ve seen, the post-Covid world means risk and uncertainty for all.
The only way that any nation can prevail in such circumstances is to stay adaptable. We must react with speed and agility to the risks that we can manage, while reducing our exposure to those that we can’t. Remaining in the EU would have compromised our freedom of action on both counts.
It is not that the EU is completely paralysed. As the recovery fund demonstrates, it is capable of changes of direction — albeit after a protracted period of wrangling. However, when the breakthrough does come it is always in the direction of further integration, of further compromises to national sovereignty. In voting to leave we did not just leave the EU as it was in 2016, but also the EU as it is now becoming.
As a result, we still have the opportunity to make the wise and timely decisions on which our future depends. Of course, that does not mean that we will — because that requires a competent, visionary government.
But at least we will be responsible for our own failings, instead of being made responsible for those of others."
Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.
Let's get back to the original topic of this thread..... Brexit!
I read this today and - of course given I voted leave - liked it a lot:
"I hate to admit it, but the Remainiacs were right. Everything that they said would happen, has happened. The traumatised economy. The emergency budgets. The empty shelves. The closed borders.
Of course, the cause of these misfortunes is Covid-19, not Brexit. And thus the main event of the last few years has become a sideshow in 2020. As a result, the anti-Brexiteers have struggled to promote their narrative. However, with the Brexit negotiations coming to a head, one of their talking points is now bound to be heard — which is that, deal or no deal, we’re leaving the EU at the worst possible time. Who needs an extra set of complications when we’ve got a pandemic to deal with?
It’s a reasonable argument, but one that overlooks the counterfactual. Had the referendum gone the other way our continuing membership of the EU would have caused a different set of complications. Indeed, we’d be in a worse situation than we are now.
If Remain had won in 2016, it’s hard to say who’d be Prime Minister in 2020, but whoever the lucky person, he or she would have had a European nightmare to deal with. Not Brexit, but Britain’s involvement in the EU’s Covid rescue plan.
Consider what actually happened in Europe this year. While every country has suffered, some have suffered more than others. Those trapped by the constraints of the eurozone are in a particular bind — because they can’t devalue their currency or print money. Therefore they need help from their fellow member states.
Just what sort of help (and how much) was the subject of a high-stakes drama back in the spring and summer. Though we barely paid attention to it on this side of the Channel, it was a showdown between the “frugal four” nations (the Netherlands, Austria, Denmark and Sweden) and the Covid-racked countries of Southern Europe, especially Italy.
Even before the virus, Italy was in dire straits, condemned to stagnation thanks to the eurozone. Covid turned that crisis into an emergency, so something had to be done. The Dutch and their allies, however, were not happy about having to bail out the southerners again — and certainly not in the midst of their own national emergencies. In the end, the French and Germans forced a compromise, but not before Mark Rutte — the Dutch PM — was painted as the cold-hearted villain of the piece.
Now, let’s replay these events — only this time with Britain still in the EU. The frugal four would have been a frugal five — and the chief villain would have been the British PM. Indeed, if we’d been part of these negotiations, an already bitter dispute would have become something much worse — because the Franco-German proposal would have been impossible for Britain to accept.
The actual rescue package consists of €750 billion in grants and loans. The necessary funds are to be borrowed by the European Commission from the money markets, with the liability shared among all EU member states. Thus, assuming a similar package in the no-Brexit scenario, there’d have been two poison pills for the UK.
Firstly, money: we’d be paying tens of billions towards a “recovery fund” whose ultimate purpose is to bail out the eurozone. British eurosceptics have long warned that monetary union is inherently fragile to asymmetric shocks; that’s why everyone from Gordon Brown to Nigel Farage fought so hard to keep us out of the single currency. Yet, without Brexit, there we’d be, paying to prop it up anyway.
The second poison pill is about power: allowing the Commission to borrow hundreds of billions of Euros is a massive step towards fiscal integration, and hence a fully-fledged superstate. Of course, because of Brexit, that’s the EU’s business, not ours. But what if Brexit hadn’t happened and it was our business?
Back in 2016, the Government promised us that the “UK will not be part of a further European political integration” and that no “UK powers can be transferred to the EU in the future without a referendum”. Well, giving Brussels the ability to borrow vast sums of money is about as political as it gets, involving the transfer of national powers to the EU because agreeing to underwrite someone else’s borrowing reduces how much you can borrow in your own name. Thus, had we stayed in, the promise would have been broken — a nation of reluctant Remainers betrayed.
A Conservative Prime Minister would have faced a full-scale party revolt — including Cabinet resignations and backbench defections. Therefore, he or she would have no choice but to block the deal. There’d also be overwhelming pressure from the EU to let the deal through, and as the Greeks can tell you, the masters of the eurozone will do “whatever it takes” to save the single currency. All blackmail options would have been on the table — including an end to Britain’s budgetary rebate.
In other words, an irresistible force would have met an immovable object. And whenever that happens, something breaks — most likely the British Government. In the middle of a pandemic.
Back in the real world, we need to ask whether the rescue package is enough to keep the Italians and others afloat through the brutal recovery period that lies ahead. The answer is probably not — and, in fact, the cracks are beginning to show. In the run-up to this week’s EU summit, Poland and Hungary are threatening to veto the recovery fund and the entire EU budget. Even if that’s just brinksmanship, there’s a deeper problem.
While the recipient countries are happy to help themselves to the grant component of the fund, they’re not so keen on the loans — because these come with onerous conditions. Instead, the recipients have been borrowing the money they need on the open market, thus circumventing the conditions they object to. They’re able to do this at a low interest rate because of the European Central Bank buying up debt issued by eurozone member states.
And so the weaker economies have been filling their boots, which is the sort of thing that got the eurozone into trouble before. The ECB could crack down by cutting off bond purchases. However, this could trigger the sovereign debt crisis the Bank is so desperate to avoid.
It would be easier for Brussels and Frankfurt to keep things under control if any extra money required over-and-above the €750 billion were also to be borrowed and doled out by the European Commission. There’s no immediate proposal for this to happen, but having crossed the fiscal Rubicon once already, the next trip to the money markets will be much easier — and the trip after that. I wouldn’t want to bet my house on this summer’s rescue package being a one-time deal.
Covid has taken all the old imbalances and fragilities in the eurozone and made them worse. Further bail-outs are all but inevitable. Given the new model for raising emergency funds, it’s just as well we’re no longer on the hook.
The words “post-Brexit Britain” conjure up an unfamiliar environment fraught with danger. By voting to leave, we’ve supposedly condemned ourselves to a future full of uncertainty, while our neighbours remain secure within the European Union. But as we’ve seen, the post-Covid world means risk and uncertainty for all.
The only way that any nation can prevail in such circumstances is to stay adaptable. We must react with speed and agility to the risks that we can manage, while reducing our exposure to those that we can’t. Remaining in the EU would have compromised our freedom of action on both counts.
It is not that the EU is completely paralysed. As the recovery fund demonstrates, it is capable of changes of direction — albeit after a protracted period of wrangling. However, when the breakthrough does come it is always in the direction of further integration, of further compromises to national sovereignty. In voting to leave we did not just leave the EU as it was in 2016, but also the EU as it is now becoming.
As a result, we still have the opportunity to make the wise and timely decisions on which our future depends. Of course, that does not mean that we will — because that requires a competent, visionary government.
But at least we will be responsible for our own failings, instead of being made responsible for those of others."
Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.
Danny its not that vfr is a slow learner because that assumes he learns at all.
Which on current evidence is to be severely doubted.
Try an ETF or a managed trust fund. I stuck £20K in this one (below) about a year ago - it's up 25% thus far.
You're right the best you can do with savings interest rates is about 1.2% (Skipton though it's now shut for new savers). Of course its safer though.
Here: https://www.trustnet.com/factsheets/p/bjo0/rlp-hsbc-islamic-global-equity-index-pn
I stuck a bit in this one too - its risk factor is less though earnings are also less.
Here's an interesting little story. I'll summarise it for you:
A couple of Wayne county election officials were not happy with the way the votes were counted, so they voted not to certify the results.
They were called racists and they and their families were threatened. They were told that people would make sure that they can never show their faces in the district again. They were doxed and details of their kids schools were published. Under those threats they caved in and confirmed the votes. One of the guys threatening them in a live zoom call was one of the other officials a white guy called Ned BLACK LIVES MATTER Staebler (Twitter name).
They've now changed their minds and want to rescind their votes. They've written affidavits detailing why.
www.washingtonexaminer.com
A couple of Wayne county election officials were not happy with the way the votes were counted, so they voted not to certify the results.
They were called racists and they and their families were threatened. They were told that people would make sure that they can never show their faces in the district again. They were doxed and details of their kids schools were published. Under those threats they caved in and confirmed the votes. One of the guys threatening them in a live zoom call was one of the other officials a white guy called Ned BLACK LIVES MATTER Staebler (Twitter name).
They've now changed their minds and want to rescind their votes. They've written affidavits detailing why.
Wayne County election board GOP officials rescind votes certifying results - Washington Examiner
The two Republican Wayne County officials who first refused to certify the election results only to quickly change their minds after facing an onslaught of criticism now say that their change of heart was a mistake.Wayne County Board of Canvassers Chairwoman Monica Palmer and William C. Hartmann...
www.washingtonexaminer.com
Like you vfr I'm not venturing outside either as my Gov has requested, nevertheless from what I'm seeing just by looking out of my windows and what I'm hearing on the phone and through the media, the majority of Brits are going about their business as per usual. My daughter's partner works in a furniture/homeware store and they are open with certain restrictions in force naturally, It's easy to work a way around the restrictions If you must. Own a clothing shop? then stock up with PPE and sell that along with tins of beans and you can stay open as long as you like, I know stores that do just that so it happens all right.
As for savings, well that's where my business acumen comes in. I use savings to finance small business ventures and replace the cash with more than originally borrowed, I am in fact my own finance company.
For example when fitness watches started to take off I was buying them from China in batches of 50 a time for £8 each which I sold for around £25 a throw...made a packet. So yes my savings rake in very large rewards, risk free in my case. My partner also runs a cosmetics business from home with parcels delivered & collected by courier, no need to go out to post and her side of things is booming as well thanks to lockdown.
What normal people do is go to the police when threatened.Here's an interesting little story. I'll summarise it for you:
A couple of Wayne county election officials were not happy with the way the votes were counted, so they voted not to certify the results.
They were called racists and they and their families were threatened. They were told that people would make sure that they can never show their faces in the district again. They were doxed and details of their kids schools were published. Under those threats they caved in and confirmed the votes. One of the guys threatening them in a live zoom call was one of the other officials a white guy called Ned BLACK LIVES MATTER Staebler (Twitter name).
They've now changed their minds and want to rescind their votes. They've written affidavits detailing why.
Wayne County election board GOP officials rescind votes certifying results - Washington Examiner
The two Republican Wayne County officials who first refused to certify the election results only to quickly change their minds after facing an onslaught of criticism now say that their change of heart was a mistake.Wayne County Board of Canvassers Chairwoman Monica Palmer and William C. Hartmann...
I’ve not been anywhere near a restaurant since February. Only been in one pub and that was during our running club’s annual pub run. That was horrendous, I stood outside the first pub and didn’t go in any of the others.Eating out, especially at cheap restaurants, is a pretty high risk activity.
So save your money, just cook.
I can’t see how these places can be anything else but transmission hot spots. The government should have just closed them all until further notice during March. I know many would have gone bust, but they’ll come back once circumstances are right. There will always be demand for meals and ale.
Thanks. I don’t want to sell it, so I’ll just store it. Might find the time / motivation to restore it myself one day or have it restored by someone else. I’m not bothered about the cost effectiveness of a professional restoration because I won’t be selling it on.
There's a difference between a growth fund and interest on cash. Also, you have no profit at all from those type of investments, or in fact any investment, until you cash in. Up to the point of cashing in, it's a dead loss! Think about what happened in Venezuela when their currency collapsed: You could take all your money out of your managed trust fund, put it in a wheelbarrow and go and buy a loaf of bread.
I've been investing in property for the last 20 years. During that time, the capital growth has been around 10% p.a. and I've had around 12% cash per year, so around 22% in total. The cash is real profit. I can only realise the capital profit if I sell, but I probably never will.
I've also done quite well in self-managed equities. It's hard to figure out how a rank amateur got around 20% annual growth, while as all the knowhow and insider dealings of the experts in RBS could only get -0.5% in the same time period with the same amount invested. That's when I realised that something crooked was going on in banking. Over 20 years, I've averaged about 8% growth in equities. Since 2002, I put in £12K, I've had £24K out in cash and my portfolio is still worth £17k.
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I think in the main we are talking about places where most people go. 18 - 40 year olds in city centre bars etc. These places are packed solidly with scant regard for Covid safety measures from the owners or customers. Transmission must be rife and then they are taking it home and passing it on.
I hear stats saying hospitality is very low risk, but I can’t see how that can be true. Today a report had claimed that Supermarkets are major risk factors. If a supermarket is high risk, a pub must be off the scale.
vfr...shouldn't we be discussing real conspiracy theories like why did Trump's Gov conspire with various authorities to shut down - lock up - move voting postal boxes in leading Democratic areas with a high percentage of black voters.
Why were voting stations placed miles (over 20 in one case) from citizens that needed to use them but had no transport to get there.
Why when/if black voters arrived at stations were they kept waiting in long queues for many hours, in some cases some actually took tents and were forced to camp out all night.
Now I'm on a roll, didn't Trump during the 2016 election campaign conspire with various authorities in accusing Hillary Clinton of being "crooked" and using her email acc to send messages to what could be seen as enemy agents of the US. She was of course cleared of any wrong doing but it would have affected her chances of being elected even though she won the peoples vote.
I could go on and on, these are real conspiracies not a Memory stick that some nitwit forgot to stick in a USB slot.
Why were voting stations placed miles (over 20 in one case) from citizens that needed to use them but had no transport to get there.
Why when/if black voters arrived at stations were they kept waiting in long queues for many hours, in some cases some actually took tents and were forced to camp out all night.
Now I'm on a roll, didn't Trump during the 2016 election campaign conspire with various authorities in accusing Hillary Clinton of being "crooked" and using her email acc to send messages to what could be seen as enemy agents of the US. She was of course cleared of any wrong doing but it would have affected her chances of being elected even though she won the peoples vote.
I could go on and on, these are real conspiracies not a Memory stick that some nitwit forgot to stick in a USB slot.
Great idea. What if the police are the ones threatening you or they're the closest friends of those threatening you?
While on the subject of police, i think 20 years ago, most UK citizens would have said that our police were very fair and you could rely on them to sort out your problems.
There seems to be a completely different picture today. If you call the police because you've been burgled, nobody comes. If you call someone a bloke who thinks he's a woman a bloke on Twitter, they come en masse, knock down your door, handcuff you, take you away from your screaming kids and lock you up. If your name is Tommy Robinson and you decide to take someone a box of chocolates, 100 policemen materialise, handcuff you and lock you up for possession of the chocolates. Whilst London becomes the stabbing capital of the world, the mayor puts all his funding into investigating "hate" crimes.
When you look at The Great Reset agenda and assume that the police are signed up and working to it, everything makes sense. In that case, you can see what they mean by "hate" crimes.