Brexit, for once some facts.

[oyster]

Words into action:

Doctor quits NHS over Dominic Cummings' refusal to resign

Exclusive: Dr Dominic Pimenta says behaviour of PM’s adviser could help trigger second wave of Covid-19
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jun/04/doctor-quits-nhs-over-dominic-cummings-refusal-to-resign-dominic-pimenta-second-wave-covid-19

 

[RossG]

Note the Gov is still saying don't buy/use medical face masks lest we deplete all health service stocks.
PPE style masks are now readily available to all and stocks are high, a small business not far from me has 4 million in stock for sale to the public. You can now also get them from street market stalls along with hand sanitizer which is also in plentiful supply. A face covering is next to useless unless you can cover your nose tightly as well, and if you think about it a face mask allows you to open and close you mouth, whereas with say a scarf you would tend to keep it shut and breath through your nose.

I see the Government are still sticking to the theory that once CV had arrived here there was no point in stopping foreign visitors bringing in even more with them as it was already too late to control. That notion has been debunked so many times and proven to be incorrect it's probably not even worth mentioning, other countries did it...yes at cost but they did it and it's worked for them.

Recently It was estimated had this country taken the correct measures more swiftly and robustly in the first place 75% of lives could have been saved, as it is the Gov still insists it was right.
I'm often reminded of all the great military blunders that have been made over time and the sheer pointlessness of it all.

 

[Woosh]

someone has to take the lead and make decisions. Sometimes things don't work out as well as hoped. Just don't say 'world beating'.

 

[oldgroaner]

The Express is running the usual nonsense for the Brexit fans
"
Brexit warning: Barnier attacked for plotting 'blame game' if UK-EU trade deal collapses
THE European Union has been accused of "preparing its ground for the inevitable blame game" following Michel Barnier's offer to extend the Brexit transition period by up to two years as bitter trade deal talks with the UK threaten to collapse.

 

[Woosh]

the logical thing to do is to extend the transition another year but what would the tory faithfuls think?

 

[oyster]

When will the app arrive?

Legal complaint lodged with UK data watchdog over claims coronavirus Test and Trace programme flouts GDPR
'Government is moving too fast, and breaking things as a result'
https://www.theregister.com/2020/06/04/test_and_trace_ico_gdpr_complaint/

 

[oyster]

The fundamental idea, that we might have more resistance than thought, and the antibody tests might not be identifying that, has been discussed here. I think that there is something happening which does not totally acord with the "conventional" view that we have absolutely no resistance and will all have to get covid-19 or be vaccinated. We already have question marks over why some don't notice anything whereas others end up in ICU or the morgue.

ADDED:

Also completely undermines any immunity certificate system based on covid-19 antibodies which might not show up...

'The costs are too high': the scientist who wants lockdown lifted faster
Ian Sample Science editor

Sunetra Gupta believes we may be underestimating how many people have fought off Covid-19

So far, the scientific data do not support Gupta’s best-case scenario. Blood tests performed by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) on nearly 1,000 people in England suggest that less than 10% of the population has been exposed to the virus. The figures are in line with other surveys, though regional differences exist. Last month, Matt Hancock, the health secretary, said that about 17% of Londoners might have had the virus, against nearer 5% in the rest of the country.

But Gupta, who is married to Adrian Hill, the director of Oxford’s Jenner Institute, which is pushing ahead with developing a vaccine for Covid-19, believes the test data may substantially underestimate the number of people who have fought off the virus. She suspects that while physical distancing and the lockdown have helped suppress the epidemic, infections may have waned because of people’s natural resistance to the infection, for example through antibodies that fight related coronaviruses which cause common colds – but which would not necessarily show up in Covid-19 antibody tests.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/05/the-costs-are-too-high-the-scientist-who-wants-lockdown-lifted-faster-sunetra-gupta

 

[oyster]

would the tory faithfuls think?

Do the tory faithfuls think?

 

[Woosh]

The fundamental idea, that we might have more resistance than thought, and the antibody tests might not be identifying that, has been discussed here. I think that there is something happening which does not totally acord with the "conventional" view that we have absolutely no resistance and will all have to get covid-19 or be vaccinated. We already have question marks over why some don't notice anything whereas others end up in ICU or the morgue.

the general assumption is 1 in 5 people is naturally immune to COVID19.
That has been factored into various models.

 

[oyster]

the general assumption is 1 in 5 people is naturally immune to COVID19.
That has been factored into various models.

But is it right?

 

[Barry Shittpeas]

But is it right?

Something is happening. If the narrative from February / March is brought forwards to today, I would expect the virus to be raging out of control, especially in places like London when you look at scenes there. London is surprising me with its low infection rate is. I know they took a big early hit, but estimates are that only 17% have been exposed to Coronavirus. Based on the initial reports from earlier in the year, this wouldn't be enough of the population to suppress a second huge surge in cases.

Maybe we are more immune than initially thought, or the virus is becoming less severe and people are experiencing symptoms so mild they don't report them. Whatever is happening, the situation regards infection seems to be improving.

 

[sjpt]

Something is happening. If the narrative from February / March is brought forwards to today, I would expect the virus to be raging out of control, especially in places like London when you look at scenes there. London is surprising me with its low infection rate is. I know they took a big early hit, but estimates are that only 17% have been exposed to Coronavirus. Based on the initial reports from earlier in the year, this wouldn't be enough of the population to suppress a second huge surge in cases.

Maybe we are more immune than initially thought, or the virus is becoming less severe and people are experiencing symptoms so mild they don't report them. Whatever is happening, the situation regards infection seems to be improving.

I think we are not too far off the predictions from late Feb/early March, given when the lockdown happened. (It seems a long time ago, maybe my memory is wrong.) If it had happened at the right time the deaths would have been much lower. Many were not suggesting a significant second peak until November; though of course it depends how the lockdown relaxation works out. I think one difference from the early predictions is that the tail of the first peak is going down surely, but slower than predicted.

 

[flecc]

someone has to take the lead and make decisions. Sometimes things don't work out as well as hoped. Just don't say 'world beating'.

In the UK's case, say self flagellation instead.
.

 

[flecc]

The fundamental idea, that we might have more resistance than thought, and the antibody tests might not be identifying that, has been discussed here. I think that there is something happening which does not totally acord with the "conventional" view that we have absolutely no resistance and will all have to get covid-19 or be vaccinated. We already have question marks over why some don't notice anything whereas others end up in ICU or the morgue.

ADDED:

Also completely undermines any immunity certificate system based on covid-19 antibodies which might not show up...

'The costs are too high': the scientist who wants lockdown lifted faster
Ian Sample Science editor

Sunetra Gupta believes we may be underestimating how many people have fought off Covid-19

So far, the scientific data do not support Gupta’s best-case scenario. Blood tests performed by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) on nearly 1,000 people in England suggest that less than 10% of the population has been exposed to the virus. The figures are in line with other surveys, though regional differences exist. Last month, Matt Hancock, the health secretary, said that about 17% of Londoners might have had the virus, against nearer 5% in the rest of the country.

But Gupta, who is married to Adrian Hill, the director of Oxford’s Jenner Institute, which is pushing ahead with developing a vaccine for Covid-19, believes the test data may substantially underestimate the number of people who have fought off the virus. She suspects that while physical distancing and the lockdown have helped suppress the epidemic, infections may have waned because of people’s natural resistance to the infection, for example through antibodies that fight related coronaviruses which cause common colds – but which would not necessarily show up in Covid-19 antibody tests.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/05/the-costs-are-too-high-the-scientist-who-wants-lockdown-lifted-faster-sunetra-gupta

Gupta's position is mine too. London's experience of Covid-19 supporting it. A little less hysteria has long been called for.
.

 

[flecc]

I think one difference from the early predictions is that the tail of the first peak is going down surely, but slower than predicted.

Not in London though, where the decline is much faster after a very high early rate.
.

 

[sjpt]

Not in London though, where the decline is much faster after a very high early rate.

Where is a reliable source of data specifically for London?

 

[oldgroaner]

Something is happening. If the narrative from February / March is brought forwards to today, I would expect the virus to be raging out of control, especially in places like London when you look at scenes there. London is surprising me with its low infection rate is. I know they took a big early hit, but estimates are that only 17% have been exposed to Coronavirus. Based on the initial reports from earlier in the year, this wouldn't be enough of the population to suppress a second huge surge in cases.

Maybe we are more immune than initially thought, or the virus is becoming less severe and people are experiencing symptoms so mild they don't report them. Whatever is happening, the situation regards infection seems to be improving.

One possibility is of course that the warmer weather has killed off much of the virus and then of course it's even
more likely people are suffering in silence rather than face the inconvenience of isolation.
Naturally most will get away with it, and some will simply not be found until the smell becomes noticeable

 

[flecc]

Where is a reliable source of data specifically for London?

According to some there's no single reliable data source, we just have a number of local borough and district information sources. However they point the same way and correspond to the overall hospitals experience in London.

The link below is a Guardian report summarising the general position:

Regional differences in Covid-19 transmission rate emerge in England

London has seen steeper decline in R rate but north has slower fall in infections, and estimates vary

www.theguardian.com

.

 

[Woosh]

But is it right?

god knows.

 

[Danidl]

Something is happening. If the narrative from February / March is brought forwards to today, I would expect the virus to be raging out of control, especially in places like London when you look at scenes there. London is surprising me with its low infection rate is. I know they took a big early hit, but estimates are that only 17% have been exposed to Coronavirus. Based on the initial reports from earlier in the year, this wouldn't be enough of the population to suppress a second huge surge in cases.

Maybe we are more immune than initially thought, or the virus is becoming less severe and people are experiencing symptoms so mild they don't report them. Whatever is happening, the situation regards infection seems to be improving.

The situation from March is significantly different to now. People know this can kill, they have the evidence..that photo from Vauxhall Railway is very telling. This information modifies behaviour. And of course the bans on football matches and pubs. The exceptionally fine weather is a huge help..Even if people are out and about ,and even if they are bypassing each other, there is a lot more outdoorsy space than inside markets abd shopping malls.