Brexit, for once some facts.

[oyster]

I think without a vaccine or effective treatment, a simple home test with a quick result is the answer. A test which people can easily get a supply of and self test 2 - 3 times per week. I suppose the scale of production necessary would make it affordable for people to do this.

We do have problems with that approach, though.

If people want to appear ill, what is to stop them lying?

If people want to appear NOT ill, what is to stop them lying?

There will be all sorts of issues where there are perceived advantages to individuals to lie either way. Unfortunately, people will lie unless there is some sort of proof of having taken the test and the result being as claimed. I can see much effort going into developing techniques to stop such lies but they'll probably all have blooming great holes.

Otherwise, yes, excellent approach.

 

[Barry Shittpeas]

We do have problems with that approach, though.

If people want to appear ill, what is to stop them lying?

If people want to appear NOT ill, what is to stop them lying?

There will be all sorts of issues where there are perceived advantages to individuals to lie either way. Unfortunately, people will lie unless there is some sort of proof of having taken the test and the result being as claimed. I can see much effort going into developing techniques to stop such lies but they'll probably all have blooming great holes.

Otherwise, yes, excellent approach.

I thought that as I was typing, relying on people’s integrity always creates problems.

 

[oyster]

An interesting article about modelling, Independent SAGE, etc.:

Covid-19 expert Karl Friston: 'Germany may have more immunological “dark matter”'

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/31/covid-19-expert-karl-friston-germany-may-have-more-immunological-dark-matter

In my view, well worth a read.

Observation, with the SEIR models, they do not appear to allow for "not susceptible" by way of genes, or other attributes not yet identified.

 

[flecc]

What this is suggesting to me is that perhaps a lot more people than we think have actually had the virus. Here is the article I am referring to.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/30/could-nearly-half-of-those-with-covid-19-have-no-idea-they-are-infected

I've thought this true for some while since it would be commensurate with London's fall in numbers well below the rest of the country after having nearly double their rates early on.
.

 

[oyster]

I've thought this true for some while since it would be commensurate with London's fall in numbers well below the rest of the country after having nearly double their rates early on.
.

Last figures I have seen - yesterday - were possibly up to 8%.

But I agree that some aspects give the impression of greater numbers hence reduced new infections (fewer targets being prime).

 

[flecc]

THE UK desperately needs a comprehensive post-Brexit free trade agreement with the EU more than Brussels requires it with London, political experts have warned, as the impact of a no deal scenario could be "far more severe" for Britain.

Whatever the percentage (and 12% is nonsense), the key point being ignored is that it is falling but we are not seeing significant increases to the rest of the world to replace those exports.

And an even more key point is that the EU has no trade with us and never has had. It's effectively a club and not a country

Their 27 club member countries do trade with us and share their hit. They can easily cope with a total loss and have proved it.

We take our entire hit alone and couldn't begin to cope with losing it all.
.

 

[sjpt]

I thought that as I was typing, relying on people’s integrity always creates problems.

especially political advisors

 

[Woosh]

Whatever the percentage (and 12% is nonsense), the key point being ignored is that it is falling but we are not seeing significant increases to the rest of the world to replace those exports.

that guy may have got our trade with the US/EU in the wrong way round.

 

[oldgroaner]

An interesting article about modelling, Independent SAGE, etc.:

Covid-19 expert Karl Friston: 'Germany may have more immunological “dark matter”'

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/31/covid-19-expert-karl-friston-germany-may-have-more-immunological-dark-matter

In my view, well worth a read.

Observation, with the SEIR models, they do not appear to allow for "not susceptible" by way of genes, or other attributes not yet identified.

Oh no, not the "Uber Mensch strike back", surely....

 

[Woosh]

I am a bit confused after reading an article in the Guardian I will link to it at the end of this posting. I must admit I assumed (it would appear incorrectly) that people who are infected by the virus but remain asymptomatic go on to produce anti bodies against the virus. This does not seem to be the case, so if an anti body test is given to one of these people it will falsely indicate they have not had the virus.

It also seems that a large proportion of people that get the virus are asymptomatic, we are talking of figures of 40% plus. It is not clear to me how long the virus stays in an asymptomatic person, but I am assuming that after say 3 weeks to a month or so our current tests would not be able to show this person has had the virus. Or does the virus just stay in these people continually but not cause them any harm.

What this is suggesting to me is that perhaps a lot more people than we think have actually had the virus. Here is the article I am referring to.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/30/could-nearly-half-of-those-with-covid-19-have-no-idea-they-are-infected

2 out of 3 or even 3 out of 4 have no significant symptoms + some don't want to get tested in case they are obliged to self isolate.
Even so, the number is about 5-10 times the confirmed cases.
Prof Devi Sridhar suggests that up to 2 millions of us have been exposed to it.

 

[Barry Shittpeas]

especially political advisors

Absolutely, that's why the Cummings issue was so important. It was about more than just breaking the lockdown rules, it was about the erosion of integrity and that is hugely damaging at a time like this.

 

[flecc]

Absolutely, that's why the Cummings issue was so important. It was about more than just breaking the lockdown rules, it was about the erosion of integrity and that is hugely damaging at a time like this.

Nice to see you say was, about time this non event was dropped.

Cummings was just being consistent, there's been no integrity whatsoever in our politics for just over forty years now, but the people have consistently voted their approval for the guilty throughout all that time.

So it's rather too late for them to complain of this one minor example when they've been the cause.
.

 

[Danidl]

An interesting article about modelling, Independent SAGE, etc.:

Covid-19 expert Karl Friston: 'Germany may have more immunological “dark matter”'

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/31/covid-19-expert-karl-friston-germany-may-have-more-immunological-dark-matter

In my view, well worth a read.

Observation, with the SEIR models, they do not appear to allow for "not susceptible" by way of genes, or other attributes not yet identified.

The concept of alternative modelling strategies is very sound, but the " dark matter " hypothesis strikes me as a fudge.
I read it, and reflected and am not at all convinced. There were a few obvious factors this person has omitted.
1. The Germans are more compliant.. The risks were explained by competent people who are trusted. My sister, who has lived in Berlin for 50 years keeps ne updated.
2. The first infections in Germany might have predated those in Italy, but whereas the German went back to work in a bed sit with just a partner, the Italians went home to multigenerational family groups.
3. Germany ,at least the DDR part had mandatory TB BCG until recently.

Had this infection struck in Munich in October, the results might be completely different.

 

[sjpt]

3. Germany, at least the DDR part had mandatory TB BCG until recently.

Had this infection struck in Munich in October, the results might be completely different.

There was quite a bit about the effects of BCG in the news a few weeks ago but I haven't seen much about it since. Does anyone know if it is now just accepted, or rejected, or remains not proven?

I agree with all your points, especially about Munich.

 

[oyster]

I have several times suggested we might have had cases earlier than so far acknowledged...

Spate of possible UK coronavirus cases from 2019 come to light

Deaths of people thought caused by other respiratory infections are being re-examined by doctors
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/01/spate-of-possible-uk-coronavirus-cases-from-2019-come-to-light

 

[oyster]

There was quite a bit about the effects of BCG in the news a few weeks ago but I haven't seen much about it since. Does anyone know if it is now just accepted, or rejected, or remains not proven?

I agree with all your points, especially about Munich.

Looks like a bit of a blind alley at the moment, albeit with some interest:

COVID-19 Related Mortality and The BCG Vaccine

View ORCID ProfileJan Alberto Paredes Mogica, Valeria Nava, Julian Torres

doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.01.20087411

Abstract
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has become a worldwide emergency. In the attempt to search for interventions that would improve outcomes, some researchers have looked at the potential benefit of BCG vaccination. These early studies have found a statistically significant reduction in COVID-19 related mortality in countries with a current universal bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination policy; partially explained by induced heterologous immunity. However, just as the authors themselves noted, the nature of ecological studies make them very prone to the presence of several confounders. This paper tries to answer the question as to whether a statistically significant difference in mortality rates exists between countries with differing BCG vaccination policies; while being the first to try to account for most of these confounders. We compared the number of COVID-19 related deaths per 1 million inhabitants as well as the number of deaths at the time the countries hit the 1000th COVID-19 case. Countries were divided in those which never had a BCG vaccination policy, those with a prior vaccination policy and those with a current vaccination policy. All data was gathered from publicly available sources. It was found that no statistically significant difference exists in mortality rates between countries with differing BCG vaccination policies. This result seems to reflect the notion that heterologous immunity fades with time after administration. Nevertheless, the immunostimulatory potential of the BCG vaccine might still prove useful in the development of future vaccines or other prophylactic measures.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.20087411v2

 

[flecc]

We've had Boris and the hiding in fridge allegations. Now I hear Trump has been christened Bunker Boy after his security men hustled him into the White House bunker due to the danger from the current mass demonstrations over George Floyd's untimely death.
.

 

[RossG]

Going back to what Oyster posted about the importance of clean masks. I believe that was the main concern of scientists when they said (and some still do) that masks are a bad idea in many parts of the world where hygiene just does not exist.

 

[RossG]

We've had Boris and the hiding in fridge allegations. Now I hear Trump has been christened Bunker Boy after his security men hustled into the White House bunker due the danger from the current mass demonstrations over George Floyd's untimely death.
.

I was up till 5am this morning watching it all unfold on CNN, live unedited action all the way.

 

[RossG]

While I think of it anyone see how many of the rioters were using City Bikes to get around on ? Apparently they steal them, rip out the GPS trackers then use them to ride from block to block organising the next move.