Brexit, for once some facts.

oyster

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Nov 7, 2017
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If you don't test until somebody's nearly dead, and only count tested cases, the recovery rate will be very low. Even lower if you don't test the recovered ones so don't count them as recovered.

Also, to be a little fairer it may be some tested as recovered aren't really.
The inference I take is that our actual cases are much higher than shown.

Netherlands also has a very low number of recovered - 289. And Brazil is also very low - but nobody believes their figures at all.
 
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Barry Shittpeas

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Jan 1, 2020
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Germany
Coronavirus Cases:

123,878
Deaths:
2,736
Recovered:
53,913

Last updated: April 11, 2020, 19:02 GMT

United Kingdom
Coronavirus Cases:

78,991
Deaths:
9,875
Recovered:
344

This is tragic: heads should have rolled by now
Not wishing to defend our politicians, but Germany have been testing more, so it’s likely that thousands have had it & recovered in the U.K. without being detected on the radar. The death rate is appalling. There are serious questions needing answers. Trouble is, no one is asking them.
 

Woosh

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May 19, 2012
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Not wishing to defend our politicians, but Germany have been testing more, so it’s likely that thousands have had it & recovered in the U.K. without being detected on the radar. The death rate is appalling. There are serious questions needing answers. Trouble is, no one is asking them.
Germany:
confirmed cases: 123,878
deaths: 2,736 = 2.2%
UK:
confirmed cases: 78,991
deaths: 9,875 = 12.5%

Our scientists assume that the fatality rate of CV is about 1%, the real number of cases in the UK is around 79k*12= 948k, the real number of cases in Germany is 124k*2.2=272k.
Their starting point is about the same time as us, they detect half of their cases, we detect less than 5% of cases and miss 95% of cases. All those of us either have the virus without symptom or die at home won't be tested. Consequently, Germany keeps the rate fo inflection 4 times lower than ours.

More importantly, their chance of stamping out the disease is 10 times better than ours because they only miss a fraction of cases compared to what we will have to deal with. Consequently, their economic cost is only a fraction of ours.
Back in January when we could have joined with other European countries to work out the best way to deal with COVID, BJ was consumed by one thing: get brexit done.
I wonder what BJ will have to say after the dust has settled.
 
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Wicky

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40-49 year olds 74% discharged / 26 died and 50–59 year olds 58.9% discharged / 41.1% died

An analysis of 3,883 Covid-19 patients admitted to 229 critical care units in England, Wales and Northern Ireland up to Thursday has been published by the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre.

Of these patients, 871 have died, 818 have been discharged, and 2,194 were last reported as still receiving critical care.

The average age of the patients was 59.8 years. Some 72.5% were male, and 27.5% female. Some 66.4% were white, 14.4% Asian, 11.9% black, and 1.3% of mixed race.

  • Nearly three-quarters of the patients had a body mass index higher than the recommended healthy level of 18.5 to 25. Some 35% had a BMI of 25 to 30 - the overweight range. And 38.5% had a BMI over more than 30 - putting them in the obese range.
  • 93.2% had previously been able to live without assistance in daily activities. Only 6.7% previously needed some assistance, and just three needed total assistance.
  • Focusing on the 1,053 patients who needed advanced respiratory support, the average age on admission was 61.9 years. 73% were male, 27% female. Out of this group, 66.3% died, and 33.7% are alive.
  • Examining the final outcome for patients admitted to critical care, for the 133 aged 16-39, 76.7% were discharged alive, and 23.3% died. For the 484 aged 60-69, 43.6% were discharged alive, and 56.4% died. For the 434 aged 70-79, 31.3% were discharged alive, and 68.7% died. And for the 107 aged over 80, 27.1% were discharged alive, and 72.9% died.
40-49 year olds 74% discharged / 26 died and 50–59 year olds 58.9% discharged / 41.1% died
 

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
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LBC

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·
6m
Lord Michael Heseltine insists that Boris Johnson is crucial to the UK's response to coronavirus and is fundamental to planning for coming out of lockdown.
oldgroaner@oldgroaner
In that case we are doomed based on his recent performance, we'd be better off with Larry the Cat
 
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oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
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80

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,461
32,613
80
Germany:
confirmed cases: 123,878
deaths: 2,736 = 2.2%
UK:
confirmed cases: 78,991
deaths: 9,875 = 12.5%

Our scientists assume that the fatality rate of CV is about 1%, the real number of cases in the UK is around 79k*12= 948k, the real number of cases in Germany is 124k*2.2=272k.
Their starting point is about the same time as us, they detect half of their cases, we detect less than 5% of cases and miss 95% of cases. All those of us either have the virus without symptom or die at home won't be tested. Consequently, Germany keeps the rate fo inflection 4 times lower than ours.

More importantly, their chance of stamping out the disease is 10 times better than ours because they only miss a fraction of cases compared to what we will have to deal with. Consequently, their economic cost is only a fraction of ours.
Back in January when we could have joined with other European countries to work out the best way to deal with COVID, BJ was consumed by one thing: get brexit done.
I wonder what BJ will have to say after the dust has settled.
"Guilty as charged!" but he won't will he?
 

oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
10,422
14,609
West West Wales
Germany:
confirmed cases: 123,878
deaths: 2,736 = 2.2%
UK:
confirmed cases: 78,991
deaths: 9,875 = 12.5%

Our scientists assume that the fatality rate of CV is about 1%, the real number of cases in the UK is around 79k*12= 948k, the real number of cases in Germany is 124k*2.2=272k.
Their starting point is about the same time as us, they detect half of their cases, we detect less than 5% of cases and miss 95% of cases. All those of us either have the virus without symptom or die at home won't be tested. Consequently, Germany keeps the rate fo inflection 4 times lower than ours.

More importantly, their chance of stamping out the disease is 10 times better than ours because they only miss a fraction of cases compared to what we will have to deal with. Consequently, their economic cost is only a fraction of ours.
Back in January when we could have joined with other European countries to work out the best way to deal with COVID, BJ was consumed by one thing: get brexit done.
I wonder what BJ will have to say after the dust has settled.
And to show it isn't just one country:

Austria
Cases:
13,798​
Deaths:
337​
Recovered:
6,604​
2.44%​
 

Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
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Southend on Sea
wooshbikes.co.uk

oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
10,422
14,609
West West Wales
he knows that Starmer and Ed Miliband won't be bullied in the HoC like Corbyn was.
Looks to me like Starmer & Co are doing a lot of preparation. And starting to take action:

Lisa Nandy seeks urgent meeting with Foreign Office over Covid-19 repatriations

Shadow foreign secretary wants to know why thousands remain stranded a fortnight after £75m rescue mission was announced
 
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Barry Shittpeas

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Jan 1, 2020
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https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-national-coronavirus-testing-centre-only-conducting-1500-tests-a-day-11971991

Coronavirus: National coronavirus testing centre only conducting 1,500 tests a day

Leaked emails show the government's target of conducting 100,000 tests every day by the end of April is a long way off.


Nothing that comes from this Government is likely to be even remotely connected to the truth
Those 100000 tests / day were never going to happen. Testing doesn’t make a profit so it’s useless.

Who’s holding these people to account? Where is the new leader of the opposition? The BBC have been nobbled, there’s no doubt about that, so we need someone asking questions.
 

Barry Shittpeas

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jan 1, 2020
2,325
3,210
Looks to me like Starmer & Co are doing a lot of preparation. And starting to take action:

Lisa Nandy seeks urgent meeting with Foreign Office over Covid-19 repatriations

Shadow foreign secretary wants to know why thousands remain stranded a fortnight after £75m rescue mission was announced
That’s just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. We need to make sure there is something for them to come back to first.
 

oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
10,422
14,609
West West Wales
Just what sort of negotiators are they? Good enough for brexit trade deals? Or unable to buy some untested kit with a guarantee? How come Hancock claimed so much when he was buying this crap?

Reveal cost of 3.5m unusable Covid-19 tests, health chiefs told

Payment was guaranteed for antibody kits designed to show who was immune but they later proved wildly inaccurate
 
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Nev

Esteemed Pedelecer
May 1, 2018
1,507
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North Wales
FRANCE has exceeded the current UK level on at least 5 occasions, with a peak of 1400.
I heard on the radio yesterday that the France figures include people that had died in nursing homes, ours do not. The report did not say if the French numbers also included people who had died at home.

I don't know how much of a difference including the nursing home figures makes, anyone got any idea?
 

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