Brexit, for once some facts.

[oldgroaner]

Hopefully this letter will make Boris think again
https://www.immunology.org/news/bsi-open-letter-government-sars-cov-2-outbreak-response

The relevant paragraph is this
"Additionally, there are many unknowns in how the SARS-CoV-2 virus interacts with the human immune system and how this might play into current scenarios. For example, we don’t yet know if this novel virus will induce long-term immunity in those affected as other related viruses do not. Therefore, it would be prudent to prevent infection in the first place. More research is urgently needed on this front.

What have we done to deserve this Government?

 

[oldgroaner]

Yes OG, you have a heavy cross to bear. An active person with dementia is a heartache. Fortunately by the time it had hit my Mother,..and her situation was it only affected perception of location , she was wheelchair confined.

Sorry to hear that you have met the same problem, and thanks for you kind thoughts.

 

[Danidl]

I heard on the radio this morning that the government are going to be looking to see if our car manufacturers and companies like JCB and RR could make some ventilators for the NHS? Does that seem like a reasonable idea or is it just some PR rubbish to show the public they are trying to do something?

I don't know if we make ventilators in the country but if we do then they should be the first people the government should be contacting to see if they can rapidly increase production.

If the ventilators are only made abroad then my guess would be that most of the wealthier countries will be trying to get hold of them.

Even if they are made in this country is it likely all the parts come from here. My guess would be that many of the components are imported from perhaps China.

Whoosh you have much more experience in manufacturing than I do, w

Not an unreasonable request. Car manufacturers have experience of mass production,however I think washing machine manufacturers would be just as appropriate.. but they are centered in .. Italy!.

 

[Danidl]

I heard on the radio this morning that the government are going to be looking to see if our car manufacturers and companies like JCB and RR could make some ventilators for the NHS? Does that seem like a reasonable idea or is it just some PR rubbish to show the public they are trying to do something?

I don't know if we make ventilators in the country but if we do then they should be the first people the government should be contacting to see if they can rapidly increase production.

If the ventilators are only made abroad then my guess would be that most of the wealthier countries will be trying to get hold of them.

Even if they are made in this country is it likely all the parts come from here. My guess would be that many of the components are imported from perhaps China.

Whoosh you have much more experience in manufacturing than I do, w

Can't see why solitary outdoor activities should be discouraged - rambling, cycling, javelin - it's the team sports / multiple particpants / with spectators being put on hold. Start of cricket season both pro & amateur will likely be delayed / curtailed altogether.

Motorcyclists for instance are already togged up with helemts and gloves when out and about. Just avoid falling off and needing to go to A&E!

For the life of me, I cannot understand why amateur cricket might be prevented. Its obvious that the players are well beyond the required 2 metres separation.

 

[flecc]

I think washing machine manufacturers would be just as appropriate.. but they are centered in .. Italy!.

Indeed, but one notable nearby exception, Beko large scale manufacturing in Turkey.

However I don't think President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is well disposed to Europe right now, though our exiting the EU might have just have pleased him.
.

 

[Woosh]

Not an unreasonable request. Car manufacturers have experience of mass production,however I think washing machine manufacturers would be just as appropriate.. but they are centered in .. Italy!.

I have an electric tyre inflator in my workshop... perhaps I should diversify immediately,

r Emergency Medical Treatment Hospital | eBay

Find great deals for r Emergency Medical Treatment Hospital. Shop with confidence on eBay!

www.ebay.co.uk

 

[oyster]

For the life of me, I cannot understand why amateur cricket might be prevented. Its obvious that the players are well beyond the required 2 metres separation.

Maybe not many catches... Or will that just be wishful thinking?

 

[oyster]

Where is the logic that enables "them" to report covid-19 cases when they don't, won't, test? (They only set up testing in Carmarthen and Cardigan a few days ago. Scrapped - so it appears - already.)

"The move into the ‘delay’ phase, will include working closely with health boards, NHS 111 and the Welsh Government towards transitioning away from community testing and contact tracing. Testing will now focus on cases admitted to hospital, in line with national guidance, and based on symptoms and severity.

"The move away from community testing gives us greater capacity to test in hospital settings, where the most vulnerable patients will be cared for.

"While there is no longer a need to identify every case through community testing, we will still need to and will be able to report on novel coronavirus level in Wales.

"In a similar way to our seasonal flu reporting, we will be undertaking routine novel coronavirus (Covid-19) surveillance which will help us understand the picture in Wales. We will therefore continue in the short term to report numbers of confirmed cases, which will give us some indication of the picture in Wales."
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/coronavirus-wales-22-covid19-cases-17926846

If we get it, and survive the infection at home, and don't call NHS, they will never know.

 

[Barry Shittpeas]

That is my aim, but it presented me with a quandary since I have no nearby relatives to supply me and asking neighbours to do so for four months is far too great an imposition to request it.

So I would have to go out to shop from time to time. But of course with the virus infection spreading that would be an escalating risk for myself and others, particularly since I'm a triple 7, 70 plus two more sevens at 84 years old.

So I decided that the rational thing to do in everyone's interests was to go against all advice and overbuy while the virus had not reached my area, having stock enabling me to self isolate completely for a long period as the virus arrived.

To appear cooperative I spread that buying over three days and four supermarkets, two Sainsburys, one Waitrose and one Co-op, so not appearing to overbuy at any.

The contrasts were interesting, both Sainsburys had their shelves stripped very early in the period with the one in the upper crust area most denuded of stock.

Waitrose did much better, the only type of foodstuff I saw totally out of stock were Italian tinned tomatoes and tomato puree, but that was common to all the supermarkets, as was the absence of any toilet rolls. The British really are a load of shits.

The best performer though was the Co-op which is a very small one in my estate's nearby mini shopping centre. I went there last of all this morning and apart from the Italian tomato products and toilet rolls they not only had everything else of the food basics but with choices too!

For example, all rice had long been stripped from the others, but the little Co-op had three pack sizes in two brands of long grain rice, plus basmati or brown whole grain basmati.
.

I don’t think your neighbours would consider it an imposition, given the circumstances. I wouldn’t. Between us, a nearby gentleman in his 90s was given a helping hand by us all for nearly 10 years!

Of course, there are always those with the “British“ spirit. I’m hearing of them buying up to £300 worth of meat and toilet rolls and baby milk from supermarkets in one go. These things are then appearing later on eBay, baby milk at up to £160.

Not everyone is like that though, and I’m sure your neighbours would oblige.

 

[oyster]

I heard on the radio this morning that the government are going to be looking to see if our car manufacturers and companies like JCB and RR could make some ventilators for the NHS?

I think there will be some spare capacity in Swindon and Bridgend.

 

[Woosh]

If we get it, and survive the infection at home, and don't call NHS, they will never know.

if that happens, we don't make it to the statistics but I suspect that the NHS does some random testing.
In any case, we had 14 deaths yesterday, Italy reached that level on 03-March, 12 days ago.

So we are 12 days behind Italy, 5 days behind Spain and only 2 days behind France.

If you want more statistics, I found this website a quite good source:

Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)

Country-by-country data and research on the pandemic. Updated daily.

ourworldindata.org

 

[oyster]

if that happens, we don't make it to the statistics but I suspect that the NHS does some random testing.
In any case, we had 14 deaths yesterday, Italy reached that level on 03-March, 12 days ago.

So we are 12 days behind Italy, 5 days behind Spain and only 2 days behind France.

If you want more statistics, I found this website a quite good source:

Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)

Country-by-country data and research on the pandemic. Updated daily.

ourworldindata.org

For some values of random.

Given the uneven distribution we have seen so far, I wonder how many pseudo-random tests they would need to do to have a high degree of faith in the results?

 

[oldgroaner]

" 88 couples have come out of quarantine in China and immediately filed for divorce "

I can sympathise!

 

[Woosh]

Given the uneven distribution we have seen so far, I wonder how many pseudo-random tests they would need to do to have a high degree of faith in the results?

not many. Maybe 20,000 tests would be enough.
I find that the number of deaths per day is the most solid data to compare our status with Italy's.
To protect our staff (and stop my wife to isolate herself from me), from Monday, we will close our shop to callers and organise a new rota so that we work half time at home and half time in the office.

 

[oyster]

not many. Maybe 20,000 tests would be enough.
I find that the number of deaths per day is the most solid data to compare our status with Italy's.
To protect our staff, from Monday, we will close our shop to callers and organise a new rota so that we work half time at home and half time in the office.

20,000 tests is 20,000 tests. If you want to know what is happening in a dynamic epidemic, you need to do a number of tests per day (or other time period). And they need to be distributed across the UK.

So far, we still only have two cases confirmed in the county. Which is either an extreme outlier or inaccurate.

Currently, I am very concerned at the prospect of the run up to Easter. Just how many people will come down here, and how many of them might be infectious?

Sounds like you are being sensible re the shop and change of rota.

 

[flecc]

So we are 12 days behind Italy, 5 days behind Spain and only 2 days behind France.

That's our best performance in modern times.

On most things, like roads and railways for example, we are usually decades behind them.
.

 

[Wicky]

For the life of me, I cannot understand why amateur cricket might be prevented. Its obvious that the players are well beyond the required 2 metres separation.

That's what I've been brain storming with other club members in a risk assessment / practicalities way as I have a cricket league meeting in a couple of days (if even that goes ahead!)

Changing rooms & teas bring players in close proximity

Plus impact of player availability could make getting enough players a problem - some due to work/ other commitments / elderly relatives balanced against maintaining sanity and stave off boredom for however long this lasts into Spring and Summer.

The measures the Govt / Health experts are coming up with they realise that effectiveness is only as good as people abide by them and not getting fatigued & lax following it over the duration.

You know its serious when this is announced >>

Ireland's government has called for the closure of all pubs and bars in the country from this evening "until at least 29 March".

In a statement, it also called on members of the public to refrain from organising or going to parties "in private houses or other venues which would put other people's health at risk".

 

[Woosh]

20,000 tests is 20,000 tests. If you want to know what is happening in a dynamic epidemic, you need to do a number of tests per day (or other time period). And they need to be distributed across the UK.

I think the NHS are doing 5,000 tests per day at the moment.
End of 12-March:29,764 tests, end of 14-March: 40,279 tests, 1,372 positives.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases

 

[Wicky]

That's our best performance in modern times.

On most things, like roads and railways for example, we are usually decades behind them.
.

With my misfits and nutjobs govt advisor hat on...

Maybe they could rejig the format, doing away with the jolly sing song part, into a Eurovision Pandemic Contest...

 

[flecc]

I don’t think your neighbours would consider it an imposition, given the circumstances.

But I do with my fiercely independent nature and would find it embarrassing over such a long period.

And as I've shown unnecessary. If the advance buying of basics is confined to the small minority in a similar position, the amounts won't in any way trouble the supply chain. I woudn't even need a small trolley to contain mine.

As has been mentioned already, the real problem in that respect is the panic buying of a vast range of products by the great majority who have no need to do so, such as the young and fully able.

However, even that will not be a problem, we normally hold many months and often years of reserves in the supply chain, so the present absorption of those reserves will be replenished as soon as people reach saturation stocks and are forced to stop buying.

There is no shortage of stock, just a momentary shortfall in getting them along the supply chain quickly enough. Only recently on TV we were shown a huge warehouse of Italian Chopped Tomatoes with a boast of having two years stocks and a pack I've already had in stock for a little while had almost two years dating, 09/21.
.