Brexit, for once some facts.
- Thread starter flecc
- Start date
I appreciate that you are just reporting what someone else said, but his comments in respect of The Irish Taoiseach were very untrue. That is making Leo out to be intransigent,which in this instance is totally untrue. What he has said is that a time limited backstop is of no value, because it means the other side can just decide to run down the clock. The EU and Ireland,as part of the EU, has no problem with technology solutions..WHEN they EXIST.Here's Fraser Nelson with some ideas on how come its possible:
"Of all the tall stories that Boris Johnson has told, his latest – about how he’ll secure a Brexit deal by Hallowe’en – is seen as the most laughable. There is a million-to-one chance of his failing to negotiate a Brexit deal, he says. Most Tories think it’s the other way around, that he stands a million-to-one chance of success. They back him because they think he’d leave without a deal if he had to. But the mood music in Europe is changing and there’s a decent chance of a breakthrough – for a Prime Minister sharp enough to take it.
The EU still likes to say the deal it offered to Theresa May cannot be “reopened” but this is a bit of a verbal trick. No one is seriously expecting a new 585-page deal to be negotiated. If a few sentences were added to the end, giving either side the ability to walk away – in the way EU members and Nato members can walk away – then Parliament would probably vote it through. The Northern Irish backstop is a problem, but alternatives are there. Agreement is tantalisingly close.
Meanwhile, the cost of not doing a deal is becoming clearer. Leo Varadkar, the Irish Taoiseach, had been saying that no-deal – however painful – would be better than more compromise with the Brits. But this week his finance minister spelt out what no-deal would mean for Ireland: three years of pain, 85,000 job losses, economic growth crushed and billions of euros in extra borrowing. Why go through all this if it could be avoided, by a bit of goodwill?
Crucially a new argument against no-deal is coming from Berlin. Forget the economic cost, it says: something far more important is at stake. The trade war between America and China is turning into a wider cold war, placing Europe under pressure from both sides. Europe can resist this pressure, but it needs scale. And Britain. With a Brexit deal, the EU and UK would be close and could act as a diplomatic block – deciding together, for example, what to do about Huawei’s 5G services or other suspiciously lucrative Chinese contracts. In short, how to fight the trade-and-tech wars.
The Germans worry that in a no-deal situation the UK would end up in American arms, becoming its 51st state – and leaving the rest of Europe to be picked off by China piece by piece. Italy recently signed a lucrative deal to join China’s massive Belt and Road transport project, seen by many as Beijing’s attempt to project global influence. The G20 summit, which starts on Friday in Osaka, looks like a showdown between the 21st century’s two great global powers with Europeans looking on, struggling to be taken seriously. A Europe without Britain would struggle even more.
The original Brexit plan was for Britain to become the EU’s most powerful ally, to provide diplomatic heft whenever needed. “But that could go so easily wrong now,” one diplomat tells me. “The Germans are waking up to this too late. A no-deal Brexit would create an ocean of bad blood. People say it would not last, that the EU would offer a free trade deal or the Brits would sue for peace. But neither might happen. Things might never recover.”
So Germany is keen for a Brexit deal and is ready to help, but Boris would need to play ball. If he arrives in Brussels threatening to withhold the £39 billion, it will be over. The great British mistake has been to think that the EU responds to rational arguments about money. It is motivated by pride and the need not to lose face. Far better for Boris to deploy his perfect French in a summer charm offensive, visiting Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Claude Juncker in their villas if need be, begging them to help him keep a post-Brexit Europe together.
Of course they both loathe Boris – or, at least, give a good impression of doing so. No one doubted who Donald Tusk had in mind when he spoke of Brexiteers deserving a “special place in hell”. But if Boris switches tone, he could easily surprise them – perhaps convince them to say he has become a different man in office. His request could be simple. A tweak to the backstop, to make sure Britain cannot be stuck for ever in what is supposed to be a temporary arrangement, and he’d swallow the rest of the deal. In Dublin he could give assurances on the Good Friday Agreement. In Brussels he could agree never to tax Peter Mandelson’s EU pension.
But most of all, Boris can make the case for European diplomatic heft. He did so as Foreign Secretary, promising foreign audiences that Britain would be a flying buttress to the European cathedral (an analogy that was often lost in his audience as it stumped translators – one expressed it as a “flying bucket”). A no-deal Brexit, he can say, could poison European relations at precisely the time the continent is trying to stand together. Britain could act as one with the EU on Russia, China, terrorism and more – perhaps even join the EU in standing up to America and against Google and Facebook. With a deal, such co-operation would be easy to do. Without one, far, far harder.
Perhaps the hardest part will be talking Varadkar down from the ledge. His fairly hardline position has been popular at home. But as the costs and disruption of a no-deal are clearer, the stronger the case for compromise will be. With Iain Duncan Smith now chairing his campaign, Boris stands a decent chance of persuading his troops to give a little more ground. They would be open to persuasion, provided there’s no single market, no customs union and no EU membership after October 31. They’d also sooner depose him than compromise on any of the above.
The rise of Boris is, to many in Europe, a horror story. He is seen as the populist devil – so, if he wins, expectations won’t be hard to beat. An energetic charm offensive, asking for a tweaked deal and pleading for continental cohesion, is the last project that he’d be expected to embark upon. And that is precisely why it might work."
Ireland will get what they are given and will be grateful for it. And we will expect a thank you.
Uppity oiks.
Nostalgia ..where would one be without it.@ Oldgroaner Based on your photo and name I would have had you pegged as someone who can actually remember the world before... and as we joined the EU?
All the quotas, bans, levis etc that were imposed on us the moment we joined... We were not a country in dire straights at the time of joining it just seemed like a promising coalition.
However it turned into us becoming a cash cow for the rest of europe.
No point arguing around the in/out part now... We made that bed!
Let's go down the HSE mad EU route... Changing a £2 friggin light bulb at work, down the common sense route i could safely change a lightbulb using a stepladder. It would take 5 mins and cost maybe £15 total...
Now i'm not allowed to use a stepladder, so we have to hire in access equipt... that's now a cost of £500 for a days hire of a cherry picker, £200 for a harness, £400 for training to use the cherry picker, instead of taking 5 mins now takes 3 weeks of planning, risk assessments closes an entire section of warehouse for 1/2 a day and now costs the best part of £1200 (for a £2 light bulb) And you need ask why prices are spiraling astronomically?
I'm all for HSE, i wanna go home at the end of the day same as everyone else, but there has to be a balance!
You wanna talk people having a choice... let's go down the trade deal routes!
We already have a choice (mostly) on what we can buy in a supermarket, organic, non organic,full sugar, no sugar loaded with nasty sweeteners (just a few years ago were all giving us cancer, i see that's forgotten about) etc.
Yes that's right i'm one of the minority that no one accepts exists... I am hypersensitive to sweeteners and anything that contains a considerable amount tastes like someone is trying to roofie me with Disprol! Not so thirst quenching
So what's the big F'ing deal with GM foods... they will sit on a shelf at a supermarket and we (the consumer) can CHOOSE to buy it or leave it on a shelf!
Jump in there with a trade deal from the far East and Bam... we can buy battery packs for a reasonable price and pedelec our way around the whole country now at an affordable price not an insane price hike.
Yea there are gonna be some harder times ahead whilst we get on our feet again. Like the first time you move away from your parents, but you knuckle down and move on.
What did do when a tv broke down... we called the repair man and they came and fixed it heck, it must be 20 years since i last saw a tv repair shop on the high street now!
We have farming, that had always produced a staggering excess for export (until the EU quotas) and what about the great UK industries that were slowly priced out.
You want quality steel the world went to Sheffield not Unit 2 Yangdong way, chun-lee province, Obscure ville China...
You wanted a big ass boat, you went to the Clyde or the Tyne.
All of these industries went the way of the Dodo as a result of levis imposed and cheaper products coming through the EU.
This is a result of the EUs own doing, 30 years of being promised an equal share to a vision and instead getting the whipping boys deal. Our own government made the mistake of thinking that the people forgot this over the last 40ish years.
I don't see unions as either good or bad, they are just necessary.
But like all necessary things they should be used in moderation.
.
Wisdom from a babe in arms,..
No the British built the Avro Lancaster and then the Avro Vulcan , but each one of the latter was basically hand built( just like a Morgan Sports car ) ,and had no then current industrial engineering practices involved. ..where did I get the information.. from the plaques around the Vulcan located in East fortune Airfield. Yes you,or maybe your grandfather built the Concorde, to a French Design.
The reason why the Brits started buying American was not lack of conceptual design concepts, but a bankrupt economy and a bankrupt engineering systems model.
I don't know, but it certainly isn't what it used to be.
I only come across 2 types of people that actually get a hard-on over HSE, those that work in HSE and those that sit behind a desk and can't/don't see the full impact of something that sounds good (On paper!)
Every time a new update to HSE comes through which adds an exponential cost hike and doubles the time it takes to complete a menial task... The only answer you get from members of the department with some life experience is "Brussels" and i ain't talking the ones you have with your Christmas dinner!
The light bulb was a basic example that 98% of people can relate to in terms of a small minimal risk job that you would do at home without a 2nd thought!
If you would like another, shall we talk walking up a flight of stairs? Something that most humans have managed to do in one form or another since they were toddlers.
In the last 6 months i am no longer allowed to walk up a flight of stairs at work without 3 points of contact at all times. Heaven forbid i need to carry something at the same time!
Which i did only to be greeted at the top of the stairs by the head of HSE waiting for me (The person that incidentally requested a box of folders carried up the stairs for them).
2 days later i find myself sat in a meeting between the HSE exec and HR about my non-compliance with the newest HSE rules...
No lifts in the place... what was i supposed to do? Carry one folder at a time and spend half an hour going up and down stairs, throw them up 1 at a time to him, drag a 2nd staff member off an important job to help me with a box of empty folders.
Tunnel vision anyone? nough said!
Like i said i'm not against HSE, just needs a little PRACTICAL thought put into it!
I never suggested that the EU was at fault for "Everything" im sure i could think of something they did good with... Give me a moment...
You will have to forgive me, i was not working through but just coming of an age where it started to matter!
But i was under the impression (Same as Fingers) that it was mid Maggie Thatcher's time that the decline started.
I've got to that age where the decades are just blurring together now!
But hey, i ain't a politician... if i'm mistaken, then i'll stand up and say "I feked up, sorry!"
Nah, I still got nothing Wicky... help a pal out?
Yes, well said, and welcome.. Not seen you in here before but a bit more sense is always appreciated.@ Oldgroaner Based on your photo and name I would have had you pegged as someone who can actually remember the world before... and as we joined the EU?
All the quotas, bans, levis etc that were imposed on us the moment we joined... We were not a country in dire straights at the time of joining it just seemed like a promising coalition.
However it turned into us becoming a cash cow for the rest of europe.
No point arguing around the in/out part now... We made that bed!
Let's go down the HSE mad EU route... Changing a £2 friggin light bulb at work, down the common sense route i could safely change a lightbulb using a stepladder. It would take 5 mins and cost maybe £15 total...
Now i'm not allowed to use a stepladder, so we have to hire in access equipt... that's now a cost of £500 for a days hire of a cherry picker, £200 for a harness, £400 for training to use the cherry picker, instead of taking 5 mins now takes 3 weeks of planning, risk assessments closes an entire section of warehouse for 1/2 a day and now costs the best part of £1200 (for a £2 light bulb) And you need ask why prices are spiraling astronomically?
I'm all for HSE, i wanna go home at the end of the day same as everyone else, but there has to be a balance!
You wanna talk people having a choice... let's go down the trade deal routes!
We already have a choice (mostly) on what we can buy in a supermarket, organic, non organic,full sugar, no sugar loaded with nasty sweeteners (just a few years ago were all giving us cancer, i see that's forgotten about) etc.
Yes that's right i'm one of the minority that no one accepts exists... I am hypersensitive to sweeteners and anything that contains a considerable amount tastes like someone is trying to roofie me with Disprol! Not so thirst quenching
So what's the big F'ing deal with GM foods... they will sit on a shelf at a supermarket and we (the consumer) can CHOOSE to buy it or leave it on a shelf!
Jump in there with a trade deal from the far East and Bam... we can buy battery packs for a reasonable price and pedelec our way around the whole country now at an affordable price not an insane price hike.
Yea there are gonna be some harder times ahead whilst we get on our feet again. Like the first time you move away from your parents, but you knuckle down and move on.
What did do when a tv broke down... we called the repair man and they came and fixed it heck, it must be 20 years since i last saw a tv repair shop on the high street now!
We have farming, that had always produced a staggering excess for export (until the EU quotas) and what about the great UK industries that were slowly priced out.
You want quality steel the world went to Sheffield not Unit 2 Yangdong way, chun-lee province, Obscure ville China...
You wanted a big ass boat, you went to the Clyde or the Tyne.
All of these industries went the way of the Dodo as a result of levis imposed and cheaper products coming through the EU.
This is a result of the EUs own doing, 30 years of being promised an equal share to a vision and instead getting the whipping boys deal. Our own government made the mistake of thinking that the people forgot this over the last 40ish years.
Where is Gerald... Didnt really react last night.. I, m worried.
I suspect he has some extra shifts at the Co-op. Summer season and those shelves won't stack themselves.
Hi there and thanks. Political type debates I generally avoid.
Mostly because whichever pov you take it is inevitably wrong! Even when it's not someone else tells you it is.
Tbh ive completely forgotten what even compelled me comment!
That and the fact that no one can take a comment at face value. Take my HSE gone mad point... Now there are people calling BS on it and dissecting every little remark. Along with telling me that the hse dept that is the bain of my life at times is wrong... I don't need someone to tell me that, I have to regularly explain why I have only managed to complete 2 hours of work in a 12hr shift given the hoops I am required jump through in order to comple a menial low risk task.
But no, some smart arse turnip is wittling on about needing a new harness for every lightbulb and not having the sense to replace more than one light at a time and why there isn't backup lighting etc.
Perhaps the EU deserves a medal for services to bureaucracy.
Seriously though, the H & S agenda did do much good in improving working conditions, including saving many lives.
.
Yep, agreed. I came on to make a comment and got dragged in.... 3 years later still thinking.... dont post... But its a reasonable place, no real malice and generally always good natured. Its habit forming... Anyhow, wether you post again or not. Take care.
I was brought up in pubs, parents owned/managed a few in my teens.
Politics and religion were banned topics.
I thought Gerald was providing a store front window display.
Let me refresh your memory on what you wrote
"Let's go down the HSE mad EU route... Changing a £2 friggin light bulb at work"...
Along with your listed your gripes from GM foods (thankfully someone thought of including food labling...) to fixing solid state TVs (things have moved on a tad since valves)
Nah he is a gopher.
He does everything that is deemed too menial for the special needs employee they have for box ticking purposes.
... What exactly was your role in that BAFTA winning team?.third troll from the left perhaps?.