Brexit, for once some facts.

[oldgroaner]

let's assume that Boris wins the bid to be head of the Tory Party on a No Deal ticket
The obvious problem there is that he daren't take the responsibility, and will therefore seek to share the blame with Labour, trying for a Brino solution, alienating the Farage faction in the process.
He knows once Brexit is completed he can eat Farage for Breakfast, that t least is safe, a few revelations in the press will blow that problem out of the water
Boris wants to look like a hero, but is in fact a coward, and of course in Farage he has company.
It will end up as a game of tossing a hand grenade with the pin out to each other if he can't do a deal with Corbyn

 

[50Hertz]

I'n not so sure, consider these factors:

Over three quarters of MPs are not only very strongly against No Deal but also scared of the prospect and its consequences.

Although the country is evenly divided on Brexit, polls show two thirds are firmly against No Deal, since even Leave promised them a deal. Delivering no deal against the majority's wish would frighten the Tories even more.

If you doubt the fear, in view of how unpopular they are now, Tory MPs are already discussing the awful prospect of a general election returning almost none of their MPs to parliament. Some commentators are even citing when similar happened to a ruling party in Canada.

Boris Johnson is one of the most treacherous characters one can ever have the misfortune to know of. He has never had his heart in Brexit. Back in 2016 he refused to declare until Cameron declared for remain. Then Johnson chose Leave since he always meant to position himself as a rival for future PM position.

So having achieved that, I wouldn't put it past him to present a deal that is virtually May's in all but name, relying on his popularity and powers of persuasion to swing the vote in a way the unpopular Theresa May never could.

So a BRINO Brexit is still very much on the cards as being easily possible, don't bet against it.
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A well reasoned summary and I can’t see many obstacles to that situation playing out.

 

[50Hertz]

Well Smarty pants that depends on your definition of explain. I explained what would happen next. You want me to explain the explanation. Whatever.

And in complete contrast we have the above.

 

[flecc]

I fear we'll have no deal brexit for a while.
BJ won't be able to do a deal before November.

But don't bet against a small further time extension for a new Prime Minister if the EU thinks they might just get the renamed/tweaked deal passed. They don't want No Deal either.
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[50Hertz]

Actually he is a menace and people like you unable to see that, what is going to change for the better when Farage's own words were

Brexit isn't going to solve any of our domestic problems?

Like your statements Brexit is worthless to the public, so who in fact are you working for, and why? what's in it for you personally?

You are wasting your time. He’s only championing Farage to wind you up. OJ knows very well that Farage is full of ****. The dumbest commentator on the planet can see that.

Have you noticed that never once OJ or the others have said Farage is going to do ABC and achieve XYZ. That’s because Farage has absolutely no idea where he’s going with Brexit. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Farage abandon The Brexit Party and its following if Johnson throws him a few scraps after he becomes PM.

 

[Woosh]

But don't bet against a small further time extension for a new Prime Minister if the EU thinks they might just get the renamed/tweaked deal passed. They don't want No Deal either.
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until the next general election, BJ (or Raab) has to get back those conservative voters who lent their vote to Farage in the 2014 EP election and now, in 2019.
He's not going to do that by having a deal before the next general election.

 

[Woosh]

t wouldn’t surprise me to see Farage abandon The Brexit Party and its following if Johnson throws him a few scraps after he becomes PM.

arise Sir Nigel!

 

[flecc]

until the next general election, BJ (or Raab) has to get back those conservative voters who lent their vote to Farage in the 2014 EP election and now, in 2019.
He's not going to do that by having a deal before the next general election.

Good point. Either way they'll suffer though, brexit has been a very expensive experience for them.
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[flecc]

arise Sir Nigel!

Imagine what the European Parliament would make of that news!

I don't imagine Guy Verhofstadt would be impressed.
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[Danidl]

But don't bet against a small further time extension for a new Prime Minister if the EU thinks they might just get the renamed/tweaked deal passed. They don't want No Deal either.
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Sorry flecc, but the new Commission is a new ballgame,new President, new actors, new negotiators. While the current EU were vested in getting the current deal done,the new one will likely be more sceptical. The moderating influence of Merkel and Trusk will be gone.

 

[oldgroaner]

You are wasting your time. He’s only championing Farage to wind you up. OJ knows very well that Farage is full of ****. The dumbest commentator on the planet can see that.

Have you noticed that never once OJ or the others have said Farage is going to do ABC and achieve XYZ. That’s because Farage has absolutely no idea where he’s going with Brexit. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Farage abandon The Brexit Party and its following if Johnson throws him a few scraps after he becomes PM.

He's already said as much, and after all creating a small private company as he has can be done easily and cheaply, but to run a major party needs a major organsation being created and run and that means WORK
Something Farage lacks the "intestinal Fortitude" to do and maintain, plus he's a Prima Donna and hates to share the "Glory"
Pretty much the same as Boris, but Boris already has an inheritance (if you can call the Tory Party that!)
I'll rephrase that the words are "Bruised Windfall" falling at his feet.

 

[flecc]

Sorry flecc, but the new Commission is a new ballgame,new President, new actors, new negotiators. While the current EU were vested in getting the current deal done,the new one will likely be more sceptical. The moderating influence of Merkel and Trusk will be gone.

True, but the German commercial interests have to be taken into account as well.
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[Wicky]

'King Arthur' come at last to unite the divided tribes? or Boris stunt double?

 

[oldgroaner]

'King Arthur' come at last to unite the divided tribes? or Boris stunt double?

Actually he is a volunteer used for ranging shots with Milk Shakes, so that a line can be marked "Do not Cross!" in the road.
Another Grayling contract at work

 

[oldgroaner]

arise Sir Nigel!

He will be lucky if Boris lets him contest a safe seat like Islington North

 

[oyster]

In normal democracies, a candidate is proposed by the house ,and gets voted on. If the majority of the house agree, that person goes to their Head of State and gets issued with a seal of office . But if the vote is not a majority, they don't go,and if the Parliament cannot agree, the Head of State dissoves that Parliament and there is a General Election.
So fundamentally it is not a labour or Tory or lib dem premier ,it is the decision of the House.

UK isn't a normal democracy!

Although she is expected to receive and take advice, it is the queen who has to choose who to ask to form a government.

 

[Zlatan]

Remember what she kept promising when she first took the reins after wrecking the Home Office:

"Strong and stable government".

Instead she's delivered the most chaotic government in memory.

A film biopic of her life might best be made by Hammer Films.
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I agree its been shambolic since her arrival but you can hardly blame her.
We, ll see what next PM makes of the poison chalice. Still think she, s best of a bad lot and was given an impossible. task. At least she had a go. Seem to remember Gove, Johnson, Farage and Cameron running away when they had chance of leading.
If you think May has been bad wait til we have had Johnson or Corbyn or heaven forbid Farage.

 

[oldgroaner]

UK isn't a normal democracy!

Although she is expected to receive and take advice, it is the queen who has to choose who to ask to form a government.

I shall wait for her to call.

 

[oldgroaner]

I agree its been shambolic since her arrival but you can hardly blame her.
We, ll see what next PM makes of the poison chalice. Still think she, s best of a bad lot and was given an impossible. task. At least she had a go. Seem to remember Gove, Johnson, Farage and Cameron running away when they had chance of leading.
If you think May has been bad wait til we have had Johnson or Corbyn or heaven forbid Farage.

Gove has mysteriously gone A.W.O.L hasn't he? is he actually a lot smarter than he appears?

 

[flecc]

I shall wait for her to call.

Better not take the phone into the toilet with you then, must maintain standards.
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