Brexit, for once some facts.

Woosh

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No deal it is then... Better stock up on meat pies..
even if it's no deal, practically all MPs want a transition period.
I don't know if you have read Kit Malhouse compromise. Basically, tory MPs agree with each other that:
a) TM should try to replace the backstop
b) in case the EU insists that the backstop is replaced by a front stop, they agree to the WA but with a clear IP of 3 years to conclude an FTA.
a) is unlikely to succeed but b) seems agreeable by the EU.

My guess by 2021, it will be clear that the cost of brexit will have gone up into £100 billions plus.
The FTA will then be much more comprehensive than the Canada deal and FOM will become a much less concern.
 
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flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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Nothing can "never happen". The unthinkable can and often does happen. As I say, I don't care one way or the other about the theoretical ideal of free movement of people. I have no concerns. However, It could be gone at the stroke of a pen given the correct environment, and the environment is shifting amongst the population of the wider EU. How quickly and the number of direction changes ahead is the only unknown.
Oh dear, this same stubbornness that is at the root of the uk's problems.

No, No, No, it is never and mentioning this changing at a stroke of a pen shows how little you understand the situation.

The Four Freedoms are the EU, without them the EU doesn't exist, since through all its treaties since day one it has been entirely built upon them. That is why they never change them for anyone and never will.
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oldgroaner

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I think the back stop is just a diversion. The EU would love to take Mays deal as is but they have to play the whole charade so when they seemingly back down to something that isn't broken it seems like we have won a massive deal.

We haven't. We are paying 39bn for the privilege of the status quo. But yay lets cheer on our zombie as she gurns away saying we gave fritz a bloody nose.

Its a farce.
My goodness! I agree! what's the world coming to? :D
 

oldgroaner

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Come on, of course that isn't sufficient for such a fundamental, only dependant on whether we need skills.

We have to sign up to unconditional freedom of movement, and as I've just pointed out, the referendum outcome makes that impossible.

We are in a trap of our own making.
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Correction flecc, not OUR making.
 
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Danidl

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if the backstop is to stop a hard border to protect the single market, what exactly are the EU going to do if there is no deal???. The British have said they will not erect a hard border, so what will they do???. My guess is that as if by some miracle, they will find a workable option that satisfies everybody. The other point I'd like to make is about the food shortages. ie lettuces tomatoes etc rotting in the lorries because of port delays. I cannot see that the producers of these goods are going to be best pleased when British supermarkets stop ordering them. As a country we can manage perfectly well without them, and we ( shock horror ) grow our own. I don't buy them anyway out of season. Tasteless pap
It would short circuit a lot of repetition if you would read what has been written. The Backstop was originally agreed to stop a physical hard border infrastructure on the island of Ireland. It had no relevance to a hard border at Calais.
Without a Deal it is inevitable that there will be a physical border on the Newry Dundalk road,to stop traffic in goods. Not to stop traffic in people. There are already agreements in place,as far back as 1923, governing the free movement of UK and RoI citizens people . Those agreements do not cover the movements of other EU citizens. So I can foresee immigration police at Cairnryan,and any UK airport which takes flights from NI.
You may be prepared to forego your BLT or your BigMac, you may be prepared for your Glaswegian collegues to revert to the appalling diets of high fat foods which caused premature deaths, but not all your countrymen are so noble,and may wish to eat more salads., tasteless as iceberg lettuce and forced tomatoes may be.
 
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Danidl

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Natives are getting restless in Eire - is the penny finally dropping?!

IREXIT: Keep your chin up Brexiteers, stand up for freedom outside of EU

IREXIT Freedom to Prosper is a patriotic party that believes in our national democracy.

We assert that the best people to look after Irish affairs are the Irish people themselves. Irish people spent centuries fighting to be an independent and self-governing nation.
IREXIT Freedom to Prosper cherish these ideals and will put Irish people in control of their own destiny by restoring our national democracy and leaving the EU. As it stands Ireland is
subject to laws initiated by an unelected and unaccountable European Commission. MEPs from other countries get to vote and decide on EU laws which are then imposed on Ireland. A bit like the 64 billion euro bank debt imposed on the Irish people in 2011. So much for EU solidarity!

With so many key decisions made in Brussels it reduces our Parliament to a glorified county council. It infantilises our own democratic institutions and effectively reduces Ireland to being a minor EU rule-taker.


IREXIT Freedom to Prosper will put control back into the hands of Irish people by restoring an accountable and effective national democracy.

Leaving the EU’s Customs Union and then being free to make free trade deals around the world including with the UK is the only sure fire way to avoid a hard border in Ireland.
Please just look at what has come out in the last few weeks about the EU wishing to impose a hard border in Ireland. Let’s be clear, no party in Ireland or Britain wants a hard border in Ireland. But the EU wishes to use the issue as a stick to punish Britain and if possible keep the North of Ireland – and if need by the whole UK in the EU Customs Union.

Barnier in May said Ireland’s membership of the EU Customs Union means “customs controls”. Then Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney was then caught on mic telling another minister “We’ll be the government that reintroduced a physical border on the island of Ireland.”

This was quickly followed by a German MP, Gunther Krichbaum chairman of the Bundestag committee on European Affairs admitting when pressed on BBC Radio Foyle “It will be a hard border of the European Union”. Juncker’s Spokesman on January 22nd said in case of a No Deal Brexit, there would be a hard border in Ireland.

To top it off, Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar then said a hard border might entail look-out posts and soldiers on the border.

But given the British don’t want a hard border, just whose troops would that be then? An EU Army? Looks like it. I would not like to be them when they set up shop on the border with South Armagh.

At the end of the day, the border issue has been confected by the EU to keep the UK in the Customs Union. The European Parliament even commissioned a report in 2017, Smart Border 2.0 outlining how smart technology can ensure a frictionless border on the island of Ireland. If the political will is there, the technology exists to make a frictionless border happen.

The Irish government was bilaterally discussing this idea with Britain when Enda Kenny was in power but these discussions were stopped immediately by EU fanatic, Leo Varadkar when he came into power.


Barnier made clear that he wished to make the deal with the UK so bad that they would choose to remain. In a way the EU negotiations were not genuine. The EU was only thinking of giving the UK a punishment beating, and set an example for other countries in Europe.

An increasing number of people in Ireland realise that the EU is not our friend. These people in Brussels helped rob 200 billion Euro worth of fish out of our waters since we joined the Common Market. They laboured the Irish taxpayer with 64 billion Euro Franco-German bank debt…and soon they will be coming after our vital corporate tax regime. The longer we still in the EU, the colder it gets.

In the case of a WTO Brexit, the EU will seek to impose a hard border in Ireland. So much for solidarity with Ireland as Leo Varadkar has bogged his arm in on the backstop, to watch it backfire badly.
In the case of a WTO or No Deal Brexit there are only two ways to prevent a hard border on our island. The first is Ireland leaves the EU’s Customs Union and is free to make a trade deal with Britain and other countries around the globe. This has the benefit of Ireland once again becoming a sovereign independent state free of EU supremacy.

The second, is the use of smart technology facilitating a frictionless border. However this has the downside of keeping Ireland tied inside the EU. And for that ‘privilege’ we will continue to pay into the EU budget and allow the EU to impose many laws upon us, many against our interests, and made by people we did not elect. Not a great deal.

IREXIT Freedom to Prosper supports the Brexiteers who want a sovereign independent country free of EU control and diktat. The EU has shown its nasty vindictive side in these ‘negotiations’ but please keep your chin up. Stand for freedom, set an example for other countries in Europe.

A number of years from now, hopefully Ireland will also be outside the EU and we can rebuild an adult relationship as mature states once again upholding and respecting our national freedom and democracy.
I wonder who is bankrolliing this pressure group?. I will assure you Tommie it is not coming from church gate collections , raffles or whip arounds in the local pub. Need I remind you that a figure of between 88% and 92% of RoI people polled would oppose this .
 
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Danidl

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But what I think you don't get is where we are with the backstop.

What happens come 2 years down the line we say right, we want out. But then the French say fine but in order for us to release you we want access to to your fishing waters. Somehow we come to an agreement then we say want to be released from servitude again and Spain say ok but we want Gibraltar to be accepted as Spanish. And so it goes on. And on.

As I said I think this border issue is a sham. Willy waving by Ireland and threats from the EU.

We do not want a border hard or otherwise. Does Ireland?

It seems to me that the EU wants 39bn and Ireland wants to be seen, or at least their government does, as an important player in the EU when its no more important than Portugal. A fine country for sure but it really shouldn't keep prodding the wasps nest as we will leave without a deal, there will be no border and the EU gets no money.
Which part of pariah state do you wish me to explain?.
 
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anotherkiwi

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Which part of pariah state do you wish me to explain?.
Don't waste your breath, he has understanding issues ATM. Poor little fingers (I think he might be Donald Trump...)
 

Woosh

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What happens come 2 years down the line we say right, we want out. But then the French say fine but in order for us to release you we want access to to your fishing waters. Somehow we come to an agreement then we say want to be released from servitude again and Spain say ok but we want Gibraltar to be accepted as Spanish. And so it goes on. And on.
it is very unlikely that we will never do a deal with the EU.
In any case, the backstop can only function with cooperation of both sides of the border.
the backstop argument is whipped up by the ERG to justify their claim that the UK is a victim.
 
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oldgroaner

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Oh Dear what are the BBC doing?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47036119
US firms seek changes to UK standards on beef and drugs
US lobby groups for agriculture and pharmaceutical firms want UK standards changed to be closer to those of the US in a post-Brexit trade deal.

The meat lobby wants the sale of growth hormone-fed beef, currently banned in the UK and EU, to be allowed in the UK.

The drugs company lobby wants changes to the NHS drugs approval process to allow it to buy more of US drugs.

They are also asking US officials - who will hold a hearing later - to seek lower tariffs on agricultural goods.

The farming groups say any deal should move away from EU standards, including rules governing genetically modified crops, antibiotics in meats, and pesticides and herbicides, such as glyphosate.

Technology groups are also setting out their wishlists for any pact. Companies in this sector are against the UK's proposed digital tax.

The UK government has promised to look at ways of taxing US technology giants, such as Amazon and Google, which critics say do not pay their fair share of tax in the UK and therefore operate at an unfair advantage to physical companies.

'Once-in-a-lifetime' opportunity
The lobby groups' priorities were outlined in more than 130 comments submitted to the office of the US Trade Representative.

The office solicited the feedback to help develop US goals as it prepares to start trade talks with the UK after Brexit.


How can anyone expect to be taken seriously when they say
"We knew what we were voting for"
 
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jonathan.agnew

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Dec 27, 2018
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Unlike another kiwi, I don't mind insulting people when it becomes necessary. I don't possess his restraint, good manners or dignity.

You are a special kind of gaping arse-hole. Everything disappears into it, reason, logic, discussion and contemplation. Everything which anyone writes is pulled into that dark sh!tty void, which then corrupts. It represents your very existence. As if that were not enough, with monotonous frequency, you then fart it all out and stain the pages of this thread. Go away you tedious bore.

PS I thought you were ignoring me.
i'm guessing you are unfamiliar with the term lexical leaking? i'll explain. its the way our language reveals our inner worlds. you are leaking. your words, not only in this post also in other equally vile disturbed ones, portray your inner world in graphic detail. I don't need to insult you. you are doing it, graphically.
 
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50Hertz

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Jan 2, 2019
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i'm guessing you are unfamiliar with the term lexical leaking? i'll explain. its the way our language reveals our inner worlds. you are leaking. your words, not only in this post also in other equally vile disturbed ones, portray your inner world in graphic detail. I don't need to insult you. you are doing it, graphically.
Stick to the topic please no deviation.

Pleased you have read and digested my earlier response to you. It gives me a warn fuzzy feeling to know that I have got to you :) Oh and thanks for re-posting it too. Much appreciated.
 

Danidl

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it is very unlikely that we will never do a deal with the EU.
In any case, the backstop can only function with cooperation of both sides of the border.
the backstop argument is whipped up by the ERG to justify their claim that the UK is a victim.
A Backstop is not an agreement after the event. It is a legally binding part of a contract before the event.. a pre nup if you will.
If there is no Deal, there could be an ad hoc arrangement by which we won't look if you won't tell, ..which could survive until the first batch of hormone treated beef arrives from USA or dodgy pharma products from China or India . Once there is a sniff of that,the gloves comeoff.
 

Zlatan

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Thats actually not the case and hasnt been for nearly a decade now. We are drifting OT, but in actual fact globalisation has slowed (slobalisation) and in many intances actually reversed. Many countries are becoming far more reliant on internal trade and /or close geographic/political neighbours. (I posted a link to this in the Economist, if you dont subscribe, perhaps you should or google "slobalisation"?? ) Depending on your viewpoint it can be evidence for leave or remain.
Reply was for artist formerly known as Old Tom.
Conclusions about whats happening in the world gained from social media are probably the most skewed in history, what with some individuals having 16 twitter accounts and dual identities so common.
 
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Woosh

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A Backstop is not an agreement after the event. It is a legally binding part of a contract before the event.. a pre nup if you will.
If there is no Deal, there could be an ad hoc arrangement by which we won't look if you won't tell, ..which could survive until the first batch of hormone treated beef arrives from USA or dodgy pharma products from China or India . Once there is a sniff of that,the gloves comeoff.
I don't buy that argument, Danidl.
It's an important part of the WA in case one side decides to prolong the trade negotiation beyond the IP but ultimately, Westminster can decide to withdraw from it if it does not contain a sunset clause. What can the ROI do in that case?
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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Many countries are becoming far more reliant on internal trade and /or close geographic/political neighbours.
Hence the EU being a good thing, close borderless neighbours doing just that in both respects. Seeking self sufficiency through local power generation, farming advances and recycling, while trading internally wherever possible for whatever else they need, including energy sharing.

Conclusions about whats happening in the world gained from social media are probably the most skewed in history, what with some individuals having 16 twitter accounts and dual identities so common.
True and I'm not guilty, I have no social media accounts and don't wish to know what is published therein.
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Kudoscycles

Official Trade Member
Apr 15, 2011
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I don't buy that argument, Danidl.
It's an important part of the WA in case one side decides to prolong the trade negotiation beyond the IP but ultimately, Westminster can decide to withdraw from it if it does not contain a sunset clause. What can the ROI do in that case?
Woosh....will EU anti dumping duties into the UK on electric bikes be deleted on March 30??????
KudosDave
 
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Zlatan

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Nov 26, 2016
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Hence the EU being a good thing, close borderless neighbours doing just that in both respects. Seeking self sufficiency through local power generation, farming advances and recycling, while trading internally wherever possible for whatever else they need, including energy sharing.



Not guilty, I have no social media accounts and don't wish to know what is published therein.
.
That depends on who you really see as friends and neighbours??
 
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