Brexit, for once some facts.

OxygenJames

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jan 8, 2012
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I have no problem with leaving, just wish that the hard brexiters shut up a little and leave at minimum cost to ordinary folk who do not get involved with the economy at large.
'Ordinary folk' voted to leave.

Like I say - you really are struggling with SUCH a simple thing as Brexit.

As are the rest of those that lost the vote and now wish to ignore it.
 

Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
20,340
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Southend on Sea
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Ordinary folk' voted to leave.
they did and if asked again, they may not want to leave now they know it'll cost more than £39 billions.
and that's before we become a 'vassal state'.
Latest polls: 54/46 to remain.
 
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50Hertz

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jan 2, 2019
2,199
2,403
Your mind is easily changed.
My mind might be easily changed, I don’t know. But the more I look at it, I think leaving the EU on WTO terms will put a very large number of quality jobs at risk. Pre-referendum, I was sold and I bought the idea that trade with the EU would be a piece of cake, and that the EU would be desperate to trade with us. Desperate to the extent that we would more or less dictate the trade terms. The evidence that I’m seeing today is that things aren’t that way at all. Brexit is a different quantity to how it was portrayed pre referendum.

Maybe I’ve bought into Project Fear? I can’t rule that out because there are so many fckuing liars and intransigent dick-heads around it’s virtually impossible to determine the truth or to have a balanced conversation. That’s the real shame of this whole debate. Anyway Remaining In the EU is my decision, but I’m by no means certain it’s the right one.
 
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Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
20,340
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Southend on Sea
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trade with the EU would be a piece of cake,
trade with the EU will remain largely unchanged unless we have no deal. It's the future investments and job losses that are linked to the EU27, no matter which brexit.
Would we make it up elsewhere?
 
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,161
30,578
We're going to find out who really is 'sovereign' if that simple promise is not kept.
The people were promised Brexit. We all knew that that meant. Out of the single market - out of the customs union, out of the ECJ - no free movement. THAT was the deal.
I fully agree that was the majority Leaver view of what Brexit meant, a simple totally clean break. But of course to the people in charge and running businesses it just isn't that simple but is in fact very complicated due in part to 44 years of entanglement.

I don't agree that there will be very serious unrest if Brexit doesn't fully match expectations. The government will put enough spin on whatever happens to create uncertainty about how much of a Brexit has been delivered. Over time the Leavers will soon realise if it's inadequate, but that delay will soften the reaction enough to keep order.
.
 
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OxygenJames

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jan 8, 2012
2,593
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they did and if asked again, they may not want to leave now they know it'll cost more than £39 billions.
and that's before we become a 'vassal state'.
Latest polls: 54/46 to remain.
The polls had remain more than that ahead before the last vote.

Woosh - stay with me here for a moment: OK. Let's say we have your re-run vote. For the sake of argument. Let's say less people take part - quite possible as many who voted leave might just think f*** you we already voted and not bother.

So let's say 'remain' win this time - with another slim majority - but this time with less actual numbers than 17.4m.

Do you think that would settle the matter? Honestly? And that is quite possibly what might happen. It would be a complete mess - way worse than what we already have.
 
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Nev

Esteemed Pedelecer
May 1, 2018
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If you simplify a solution, more people can understand it (or they think they do).
Remainers complicate things, that's why they've lost.

Take the £39 billion bill.
Remain should have won that argument by pinning it on Leave's slate. 'You ordered the beer, now pay the bill'.
Somehow, Leave managed to use it against remain.
Absolutely, leavers ran an excellent campaign, the remain campaign was pathetic. Most of what the leavers said was ****** but they were never really challenged on any of it.
 
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Nev

Esteemed Pedelecer
May 1, 2018
1,507
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Anyone see a guy named James Delingpole on this week?
What an idiot....
/QUOTE]
I could not believe how bad this guy was. If anyone things leaving on WTO rules is a good idea I suggest they watch this. He hadn't got answers to any of the questions Andrew Neil or the other two people asked him, he just said I don't know the answer to that.
 

50Hertz

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jan 2, 2019
2,199
2,403
The polls had remain more than that ahead before the last vote.

Woosh - stay with me here for a moment: OK. Let's say we have your re-run vote. For the sake of argument. Let's say less people take part - quite possible as many who voted leave might just think f*** you we already voted and not bother.

So let's say 'remain' win this time - with another slim majority - but this time with less actual numbers than 17.4m.

Do you think that would settle the matter? Honestly? And that is quite possibly what might happen. It would be a complete mess - way worse than what we already have.
I think you are right there. It is a total balls up and I don’t see any outcome that can appease a large majority.

I think flecc’s prediction of wearing people down using time, confusion and conflicting information is where the government are trying to take it.
 

Nev

Esteemed Pedelecer
May 1, 2018
1,507
2,520
North Wales
It’s the job situation that has swung it for me from Leave to Remain. I am retired, so not directly affected, but someone needs to have a job to fund the pensions! The thought of people’s livelihoods disappearing and the consequences of that for them and their families is quite sobering.
Fair play to you for admitting this. Unfortunately none of us like to admit we might be wrong, this is the problem I see with another referendum. A lot of leavers will not admit (even to themselves) that Brexit is a bad idea and so I could see leave winning again, especially if remain ran a similar hopeless campaign to last time.
 
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Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
20,340
16,858
Southend on Sea
wooshbikes.co.uk
So let's say 'remain' win this time - with another slim majority - but this time with less actual numbers than 17.4m.

Do you think that would settle the matter?
of course not, that's why I am against a second referendum because few people change their mind, no matter what, especially when they are called 'idiots'.
Only after another year or two that demography over 5 years will put remain ahead with a clear 60/40 margin.
That's why a very soft brexit makes sense, we have to cover the possibility that 60/40 will want to rejoin, to minimise the cost of brexit and rejoin.
 
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oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,461
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Would staying in the single market and customs union and keep the police access to the Shengen data be acceptable to Leave voters? Does it honour the so called 'will of the people'.
KudosDave
One might reasonably observe that to the Politicians
Aside from being handy when an excuse is required.
The "Will of the people" is not so much written in stone
as " more of an Advisory Guideline"

After all, "We've taken back control"
as that was the "Will of the people"

So we must be honouring the will of the people

Which is also (coincidentally) more of a guideline too.
After all "We're Politician's aren't we?" :rolleyes:

By the time the Mail and Express have finished with the plebs they will realise this was what they voted for all along
 
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oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
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of course not, that's why I am against a second referendum because few people change their mind, no matter what, especially when they are called 'idiots'.
Only after another year or two that demography over 5 years will put remain ahead with a clear 60/40 margin.
That's why a very soft brexit makes sense, we have to cover the possibility that 60/40 will want to rejoin, to minimise the cost of brexit and rejoin.
Is this one of "Baldrick's cunning plans, Woosh?"
What makes you think they will be any wiser in five years time?
About the only think you can be sure of is quite a few will have died , but then I'm not guaranteed to be here either, so permit me not to be too keen on long term strategies! :oops:
 
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oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
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This is not complicated.
Ted Robert Gurr, author of “Why Men Rebel”:

“people rebel not so much when they are materially deprived or when they are repressed but when a significant gap materialises between the future they have been promised and expect and the reality of their actual circumstance”.

Thought that somewhat apropos.

The people were promised Brexit. We all knew that that meant. Out of the single market - out of the customs union, out of the ECJ - no free movement. THAT was the deal.
No it simply wasn't, was it? the leave campaigners all categorically denied we would have to leave either

Why are you still pushing these blatant lies?

Remaining in both the Single Market and Customs Union was promised by these clowns
and now you come along pretending that events something entirely different?
People most certainly did not vote to leave either did they? as they were promised the exact opposite.

That's the problem with leave supporters, they simply lie when the truth doesn't suit them.
 
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oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
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Would staying in the single market and customs union and keep the police access to the Shengen data be acceptable to Leave voters? Does it honour the so called 'will of the people'.
KudosDave
Access to both the single market and customs union were offered by the leave camp on the run up to the referendum, later they simply lied and said they never said anything of the sort.
 

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,461
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It might, but if we do that, we may as well stay in the EU, withdraw A50 and retain full membership and have influence over issues which will affect us in the future.

I think it has to be In or Out, half measures such as TM’s deal gives us lots of disadvantages combined with lots more disadvantages.
Agreed
 
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oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,461
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Welcome to the BBC
(Actually shortly to be known as the Belgian Broadcasting Corporation)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/24/bbc-international-hq-belgium-brexit-netherlands-ireland-eu?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet
BBC considers setting up international base in Belgium after Brexit
Move to a EU member state needed for licence to continue broadcasting across continent
The BBC will need EU-based licences for its international channels – which include BBC World, BBC Entertainment, BBC First, and BBC Earth – if it wishes to have them broadcast across the rest of Europe either after 29 March, if the UK leaves without a deal, or after the transition period, should Theresa May’s agreement be approved by parliament.


The prime minister has been seeking to include the audiovisual industry in a free trade agreement to avoid the problem, but her pleas have been ignored.

Well it's all good fun isn't it? the comedy rolls on relentlessly day after day.

Brexit provides more surprises but poorer gags than a cheap box of Xmas Crackers
 

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