Brexit, for once some facts.

50Hertz

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50Hertz

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Jan 2, 2019
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Yes, that's the basis of my confidence. The great majority of the House is totally opposed to No Deal and will do what it takes to prevent it.
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I agree, that is looking like the most likely outcome. I can't see Theresa May presenting anything which is going to win support in the HoC.
 
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Danidl

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Just clear a point for me please.

I understand that we are due to leave the EU on 29/03/2019. Is that the default position if the present stalemate is not resolved? Will the clock tick down and that will be it, out, no deal, WTO trading terms? Can parliament stop that happening?
My take.. yes the UK is on track to leave . There is no stalemate,just no deal. Parliament can do everything. In fact UK Parliament is the only organisation who can do anything.
What can it do?.
1. It can vote to unilaterally void Article 50. That requires a meaningful vote . basically it would mean an Act of Parliament. If that were done, all Brexit dissapears , UK gets invited to commissioners meeting etc.
2. It can ask for an extension.. My understanding is that they can actually demand an extension,as I believe that was the decision from the ECJ, However that does not appear to be generally accepted.
What can others do?.
The EU
3. Play dead, capitulate, give everthing ,and even that might not be enough. ..But that will not happen. The EU cannot get the UK tio do anything. It is for the UK to decide.
What,if anything will happen. There are precious few agreements in place,so a WTO style crash out,with Borders in Ireland, and the UK ports are all on the cards.
 
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50Hertz

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My take.. yes the UK is on track to leave . There is no stalemate,just no deal. Parliament can do everything. In fact UK Parliament is the only organisation who can do anything.
What can it do?.
1. It can vote to unilaterally void Article 50. That requires a meaningful vote . basically it would mean an Act of Parliament. If that were done, all Brexit dissapears , UK gets invited to commissioners meeting etc.
2. It can ask for an extension.. My understanding is that they can actually demand an extension,as I believe that was the decision from the ECJ, However that does not appear to be generally accepted.
What can others do?.
The EU
3. Play dead, capitulate, give everthing ,and even that might not be enough. ..But that will not happen. The EU cannot get the UK tio do anything. It is for the UK to decide.
What,if anything will happen. There are precious few agreements in place,so a WTO style crash out,with Borders in Ireland, and the UK ports are all on the cards.
In order of probability 2 , 1, 3.
 

Zlatan

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Just clear a point for me please.

I understand that we are due to leave the EU on 29/03/2019. Is that the default position if the present stalemate is not resolved? Will the clock tick down and that will be it, out, no deal, WTO trading terms? Can parliament stop that happening?
I dont think they can, would need an act of parliament. Mentioned earlier some MPs have vowed to stop no deal but no idea how.
 
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Woosh

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I dont think they can, would need an act of parliament. Mentioned earlier some MPs have vowed to stop no deal but no idea how.
they do that by a motion to extend A50.
The government will have to act on that.
 
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50Hertz

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I dont think they can, would need an act of parliament. Mentioned earlier some MPs have vowed to stop no deal but no idea how.
I understand what you are saying, but the indications are that the majority of MPs are strongly opposed to leaving without a deal. If that is the case, is there anything stopping a multi-party majority of MPs tabling and voting through whatever legislation is necessary to stop, delay or cancel Article 50? Effectively taking Brexit by the throat and actually doing something.
 

tommie

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There isn`t time left to put a Bill through all of its stages to that effect,

under Article 50 we either negotiate a withdrawal agreement or we LEAVE after two years. It couldn't be clearer
 

Zlatan

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Just clear a point for me please.

I understand that we are due to leave the EU on 29/03/2019. Is that the default position if the present stalemate is not resolved? Will the clock tick down and that will be it, out, no deal, WTO trading terms? Can parliament stop that happening?
I dont think they can, would need an act of parliament. Mentioned earlier some MPs have
I understand what you are saying, but the indications are that the majority of MPs are strongly opposed to leaving without a deal. If that is the case, is there anything stopping a multi-party majority of MPs tabling and voting through whatever legislation is necessary to stop, delay or cancel Article 50? Effectively taking Brexit by the throat and actually doing something.
Who knows. We are in unchartered waters. Cometh the hour... We get Abbott and Costello Corbyn..
I tend to agree with Tommie. We are heading down that track...???
 
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Woosh

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There isn`t time left to put a Bill through all of its stages to that effect,

under Article 50 we either negotiate a withdrawal agreement or we LEAVE after two years. It couldn't be clearer
you are not an MP!
the way to brexit is still mysterious!
 
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Zlatan

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you are not an MP!
the way to brexit is still mysterious!
Who is being naive now. What do MPs know or what super powers are they privvy to us mere mortals cant muster?
Corbyn is making his mind up to see if he can make a decision or not. Come on Woosh your average potato could make an mp at moment.
 

Woosh

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Who is being naive now. What do MPs know or what super powers are they privvy to us mere mortals cant muster?
Corbyn is making his mind up to see if he can make a decision or not. Come on Woosh your average potato could make an mp at moment..
they run down the clock, then present a motion to extend A50 which will, in all probability, get support from the majority.
The government has to ask the EU27 for an extension.
No deal is not realistic.
In order for No Deal to win, No-Dealers have to convince the DUP first to say that they will support no deal.
Then they have to kill Anna Soubry and Sarah Wollaston...

On the other hand, JC camp prefers to do nothing, just let the conservatives get on with brexit. It's like handling a double edged sword, whoever wields it with cut themselves sooner or later, regardless of the outcome.
When A50 is extended, JC can extract an early GE by threatening TM with a second referendum.
If JC wins at the GE (assuming we are still inside A50), we get a soft brexit. If TM wins, JC will ask for and get a second referendum.
In effect, brexiters should want JC to become the next PM. Something I think will make the conservatives unelectable for a generation.
 
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Danidl

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Dan, that`s the biggest crock of horse manure i`ve ever read,
this insurance thing has got you rattled this evening.

Remember statue can only overrule statue
Strange the habits of Northerners , we restrict ourselves to books and newspapers
Are we actually disagreeing??. What I was trying to say was that a hastily scribbled note on Parliamentary loo paper would not cut it as far as recinding or extending Article 50. I am not even suggesting that the will or expertise or competence exists within the UK parliament to do either of these things.
What the ECJ has stated is it will require a properly formulated Act by the UK parliment, using whatever are the normal modes for making such Acts.
On the matter of insurance, There might actually be a value in having mandatory insurance for all adults, . I actually have it, it came with the house insurance. Just to shiw that other countries have different and maybe better rules. In France every car must be individually insured, whether they are drivable, on the road,in a garage up on bricks whatever. The argument being that even defective cars can be stolen. Irish practice is that cars "off the road " , can have road tax and insurance suspended.
 
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OxygenJames

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Jan 8, 2012
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Just clear a point for me please.

I understand that we are due to leave the EU on 29/03/2019. Is that the default position if the present stalemate is not resolved? Will the clock tick down and that will be it, out, no deal, WTO trading terms? Can parliament stop that happening?
They can extend article 50. That's the most likely outcome at the moment. So we won't leave then. Despite all the reassurances from you know who.
 

OxygenJames

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Jan 8, 2012
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Apparently the BBC did a racism against Diane Abbott on QT last night

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/18/diane-abbott-accuses-bbc-question-time-of-legitimising-racism

It's not because she's thick it's because she's black.
Ok let's see how many sacred cows I can kill here. The established scientific data is that Asians score highest on IQ with around 3 IQ points above the next - which is Caucasians - and then blacks who score one whole standard deviation below caucasians (about 12 IQ points). In the scientific community this is established fact. And IQ tests DO test for intelligence and IQ is the greatest determiner of success in later life above all other factors.
 

OxygenJames

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I dont think they can, would need an act of parliament. Mentioned earlier some MPs have vowed to stop no deal but no idea how.
They will extend article 50. I'm almost so certain.

William Hill have it as odds on favourite.

Screen Shot 2019-01-18 at 19.50.28.png
 

OxygenJames

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Jan 8, 2012
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It had nothing at all to do with her skin colour, she was pulled up and interrupted because she is stupid. A white person of equal or greater stupidity would have been treated exactly the same.
True. But it does not take from the fact that Blacks are most likely to be stupid. Followed by Caucasians and then Asians.
 
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