Brexit, for once some facts.

[oldgroaner]

At last! something in the Telegraph I can agree with
"
Tory Remainers loathe Brexit because they don't trust themselves to govern

Allister Heath

Just one thing wrong with that, no one in their right mind will trust ANY Tory politicians to govern after the mess they have made so far

 

[oldgroaner]

Collateral Damage due to Brexit if we leave without a deal

Is this what you voted for? I sincerely hope not.

 

[oldgroaner]

Grayling shows his real talent.
Having no idea of the consequence of his actions

Wouldn't you have thought Eurotunnel would have been the first place to ask for help?

We have worse Government even than Zimbabwe

 

[oldgroaner]

How to put a spin on the News
Here is the actual news from Reuters#
"Rolls-Royce calls on the British government to avoid a disorderly Brexit. Chief Executive Torsten Mueller-Oetvoes said, "We are highly dependent on a proper, working frictionless chain of goods, this whole company hinges on just-in-time deliveries."
The BMW-owned (BMWG.DE) brand, which reported record 2018 sales, said that despite the steps it was taking to prepare for Brexit, it was impossible to predict what would happen if there is not a managed transition after March

“We are highly dependent on a proper, working frictionless chain of goods and this whole company hinges on just-in-time deliveries,” Chief Executive Torsten Mueller-Oetvoes told reporters.

“We urge the government to avoid any hard Brexit,” he said.

Here is the Express version suitably edited to fool the unwary
"
BREXIT BOOST: Rolls-Royce commits future to UK after EU exit – brand ‘BELONGS to Britain’
ROLLS-ROYCE has committed its future to Britain in a major boost for the UK’s car manufacturing industry after Brexit.

Hilarious that a brand that was failing "belongs to Britain" but had to be sold to the German opposition.
So this German owned and run company that makes only 4,000 car annually sounds a little upbeat, then spoils the illusion
"
But the Rolls-Royce boss went on to urge the Government to avoid a no-deal Brexit, warning that any disruption to logistics would impact production.
He joins executives from other car manufacturers in the UK, including Toyota, Jaguar Land Rover and Vauxhall, to warn of negative impacts to the industry of leaving the EU without a deal.
On this year’s record numbers, he said: "We haven't seen any downturn.
"I can't promise what will happen this year.
"If it's a hard Brexit then probably the mood here in the UK tanks and probably also our sales might be affected."

"It's a Brexit Boost Jim "
Said Spock
"But not as we know it!"

Desperate times for leave voters, as usual they are still being lied to.

 

[Woosh]

Grayling shows his real talent.
Having no idea of the consequence of his actions

he is not the only one who holds Michael Gove's view 'Britain has had enough of experts'.

When you keep simplifying things, you'll run into unforeseen consequences.

 

[Woosh]

"It's a Brexit Boost Jim "
Said Spock
"But not as we know it!"

JLR just announced 5,000 job loss.

 

[Fingers]

How to put a spin on the News
Here is the actual news from Reuters#
"Rolls-Royce calls on the British government to avoid a disorderly Brexit. Chief Executive Torsten Mueller-Oetvoes said, "We are highly dependent on a proper, working frictionless chain of goods, this whole company hinges on just-in-time deliveries."
The BMW-owned (BMWG.DE) brand, which reported record 2018 sales, said that despite the steps it was taking to prepare for Brexit, it was impossible to predict what would happen if there is not a managed transition after March

“We are highly dependent on a proper, working frictionless chain of goods and this whole company hinges on just-in-time deliveries,” Chief Executive Torsten Mueller-Oetvoes told reporters.

“We urge the government to avoid any hard Brexit,” he said.

Here is the Express version suitably edited to fool the unwary
"
BREXIT BOOST: Rolls-Royce commits future to UK after EU exit – brand ‘BELONGS to Britain’
ROLLS-ROYCE has committed its future to Britain in a major boost for the UK’s car manufacturing industry after Brexit.

Hilarious that a brand that was failing "belongs to Britain" but had to be sold to the German opposition.
So this German owned and run company that makes only 4,000 car annually sounds a little upbeat, then spoils the illusion
"
But the Rolls-Royce boss went on to urge the Government to avoid a no-deal Brexit, warning that any disruption to logistics would impact production.
He joins executives from other car manufacturers in the UK, including Toyota, Jaguar Land Rover and Vauxhall, to warn of negative impacts to the industry of leaving the EU without a deal.
On this year’s record numbers, he said: "We haven't seen any downturn.
"I can't promise what will happen this year.
"If it's a hard Brexit then probably the mood here in the UK tanks and probably also our sales might be affected."

"It's a Brexit Boost Jim "
Said Spock
"But not as we know it!"

Desperate times for leave voters, as usual they are still being lied to.

Thank you for the copying and the pasting old friend. I have one for you.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6576821/Germany-looks-set-enter-RECESSION-Europes-financial-giant-sees-unexpected-collapse.html

Germany is on the brink of a recession as Europe's financial powerhouse suffered a collapse in industrial production.

The German economy stunned traders this week when it plummeted more sharply than expected.

Industrial production fell by -1.9 percent in November - a year-on-year low of -4.6 percent - which has fuelled uncertainty in the world's fourth largest economy.

A recession in Germany could have a devastating impact on the fragile Greek and Italian economies.

'Yesterday's manufacturing data in Germany provided alarming evidence of a much more severe slowdown in the second half of last year than economists had initially expected.' Claus Vistesen of Pantheon Macreconomics told Business Insider.

He said the economy had been rocked by a 'perfect storm across all sectors.'

The collapse was so swift that Vitesen initially told his clients he did not believe the data was accurate.

 

[Zlatan]

Thank you for the copying and the pasting old friend. I have one for you.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6576821/Germany-looks-set-enter-RECESSION-Europes-financial-giant-sees-unexpected-collapse.html

Germany is on the brink of a recession as Europe's financial powerhouse suffered a collapse in industrial production.

The German economy stunned traders this week when it plummeted more sharply than expected.

Industrial production fell by -1.9 percent in November - a year-on-year low of -4.6 percent - which has fuelled uncertainty in the world's fourth largest economy.

A recession in Germany could have a devastating impact on the fragile Greek and Italian economies.

'Yesterday's manufacturing data in Germany provided alarming evidence of a much more severe slowdown in the second half of last year than economists had initially expected.' Claus Vistesen of Pantheon Macreconomics told Business Insider.

He said the economy had been rocked by a 'perfect storm across all sectors.'

The collapse was so swift that Vitesen initially told his clients he did not believe the data was accurate.

And that is before a no deal, which could have catostrophic effects on German industry. Also factor in the rise of further right wing elements attracting more popularity with leave EU in their policy.
The EU has for a while now done a great jib of putting over a calm and stable environment within EU. Reality couldnt be further from truth.
The chaos in France is showing little signs of subsiding, Greece and Italy could both be forced to leave. Germany is facing nore backlash over migrant crisis. All is not well in EU at all.. Unless you happen to base your knowledge of EU on what EU tell you.

 

[flecc]

JLR just announced 5,000 job loss.

And Ford have just announced they will review their plans in a No Deal scenario. This link mentions the possibility of closing their two main plants here.
.

 

[Woosh]

And that is before a no deal, which could have catostrophic effects on German industry. Also factor in the rise of further right wing elements attracting more popularity with leave EU in their policy.
The EU has for a while now done a great jib of putting over a calm and stable environment within EU. Reality couldnt be further from truth.
The chaos in France is showing little signs of subsiding, Greece and Italy could both be forced to leave. Germany is facing nore backlash over migrant crisis. All is not well in EU at all.. Unless you happen to base your knowledge of EU on what EU tell you.

No deal may work if we do not go into recession ourselves because we need time to help us building new bridges with the world.
If Germany runs into recession, the EU27 will pull up their defenses, there is a lot of scope to reduce the value of the Euro to stimulate exports.
The net result is pressure to devaluate the Pound after a no deal brexit will be even higher.
Don't forget, the first priority trade deal deal is with the EU27, not the USA, not Japan, not Korea, not India. EU27 is our biggest trading partner by miles, we'll be in no better situation to conclude any FTA with the EU27 until the current withdrawal deal is sorted. Think about how long we'll need to sort out WTO schedules with about 90 countries that we deal with under current EU customs union.

 

[flecc]

And that is before a no deal, which could have catostrophic effects on German industry.

Why this utter rubbish repeated again Zlatan?

A 7% loss of all German exports to us isn't catastrophic, the equivalent 50% loss we will suffer if that came into play would be catastrophic for us.

They can afford to lose us, we can't afford to lose all our EU business.

Of course neither will happen, any changes will be gradual.
.

 

[Zlatan]

Why this utter rubbish repeated again Zlatan?

A 7% loss of all German exports to us isn't catastrophic, the equivalent 50% loss we will suffer if that came into play would be catastrophic for us.

They can afford to lose us, we can't afford to lose all our EU business.

Of course neither will happen, any changes will be gradual.
.

Why are you spouting your rubbish again. You are believing the EU propoganda.
And I didnt say anything about 7% loss being catostrophic. You did. For starters it could be way more than 7%,nobody knows, because any increases in German goods would be in our hands.
All Eurpopean manufacturers are still suffering from the fallout on diesel scandal and a general downturn in economies. (Warnings fingers mentioned have been common knowledge for weeks its only recently they have issued profit warnings to investors.) Factor in unknown and known effects from Brexit and like I said it COULD be catastrophic for German industry. (and Italian, French, Spanish)
Yes, Germans may cope just like we may cope...
You stating German losses can be quantified at moment (and manageable) is just as daft as some leaver claiming no deal will not affect us.
Its in all our interests to arrive at a mutual deal. Yes, EU is far larger than us, obviously, so any damage is bound to appear less damaging if talked about in percentages. Fact is in real specific terms EU stands to lose far more jobs, revenue and lively hoods than we do.

 

[anotherkiwi]

And that is before a no deal, which could have catostrophic effects on German industry. Also factor in the rise of further right wing elements attracting more popularity with leave EU in their policy.
The EU has for a while now done a great jib of putting over a calm and stable environment within EU. Reality couldnt be further from truth.
The chaos in France is showing little signs of subsiding, Greece and Italy could both be forced to leave. Germany is facing nore backlash over migrant crisis. All is not well in EU at all.. Unless you happen to base your knowledge of EU on what EU tell you.

Paris is not France, no chaos here, sorry!

I base my knowledge on living in the EU. The problem is the EU is not telling us enough about the good it has done, they leave that to national governments.

 

[anotherkiwi]

Why are you spouting your rubbish again. You are believing the EU propoganda.
And I didnt say anything about 7% loss being catostrophic. You did. For starters it could be way more than 7%,nobody knows, because any increases in German goods would be in our hands.
All Eurpopean manufacturers are still suffering from the fallout on diesel scandal and a general downturn in economies. (Warnings fingers mentioned have been common knowledge for weeks its only recently they have issued profit warnings to investors.) Factor in unknown and known effects from Brexit and like I said it COULD be catastrophic for German industry. (and Italian, French, Spanish)
Yes, Germans may cope just like we may cope...
You stating German losses can be quantified at moment (and manageable) is just as daft as some leaver claiming no deal will not affect us.
Its in all our interests to arrive at a mutual deal. Yes, EU is far larger than us, obviously, so any damage is bound to appear less damaging if talked about in percentages. Fact is in real specific terms EU stands to lose far more jobs, revenue and lively hoods than we do.

There is no propoganda.

If you want to know what the EU does you have to go and look for the information yourself. The EU doesn't advertise on TV, doesn't buy advertising space in the press, has a small internet presence. Now go look up in a dictionary what "propoganda" means...

 

[Woosh]

The problem is the EU is not telling us enough about the good it has done, they leave that to national governments.

the problem with the EU is it's open to abuses by the member governments to blame the collective administration ('Brussels') when it's convenient for them to deflect criticism.
Successive UK governments have done that irrespective of left or right.
voters can now vote for pan-European (trans-national) lists in the new EU parliament election, they should have done that years ago.

 

[flecc]

Why are you spouting your rubbish again. You are believing the EU propoganda.
And I didnt say anything about 7% loss being catostrophic. You did. For starters it could be way more than 7%,nobody knows, because any increases in German goods would be in our hands.
All Eurpopean manufacturers are still suffering from the fallout on diesel scandal and a general downturn in economies. (Warnings fingers mentioned have been common knowledge for weeks its only recently they have issued profit warnings to investors.) Factor in unknown and known effects from Brexit and like I said it COULD be catastrophic for German industry. (and Italian, French, Spanish)
Yes, Germans may cope just like we may cope...
You stating German losses can be quantified at moment (and manageable) is just as daft as some leaver claiming no deal will not affect us.
Its in all our interests to arrive at a mutual deal. Yes, EU is far larger than us, obviously, so any damage is bound to appear less damaging if talked about in percentages. Fact is in real specific terms EU stands to lose far more jobs, revenue and lively hoods than we do.

What EU propaganda, I haven't seen any so how can I believe?

As ever, your post is delusional, portraying what you'd like to be the situation rather than what is.

Once again, the EU is not a country and does no business with us whatsoever. The EU has no ports, no airports, no factories, no land and no population. The EU is just a stateless political organisation, appointed by its members to make political plans for the future on their behalf.

We are a country and do roughly equal total business with 27 countries who are EU members. If all that business shuts down in both directions, they each lose a bit of their half, but we lose the lot of our half. Any catastrophe will be ours, not theirs.
.

 

[Nev]

We are a country and do roughly equal total business with 27 countries who are EU members. If all that business shuts down in both directions, they each lose a bit of their half, but we lose the lot of our half. Any catastrophe will be ours, not theirs.
.

Absolutely 100% correct this is so obvious you wouldn't think it needs saying but it does. I remember watching debates before the referendum, and the leave spokespersons all saying we are bound to get a good deal from the EU because they have a trade surplus with us. They kept saying they sell us more than we sell them, so it is in their interests to give us a good deal.

I remember thinking though as you have just posted that a reduction in some of this trade say 15 or 20% is not going to make much of a difference to any of the 27, but will have a massive impact on us. I don't recall anyone on the Remain side making this point, or if they did they didn't seem to make it very well.

All I can remember is the Leave side saying the Germans will still want to sell us their cars and the French sell us their wine etc. so we are sure to get a good deal. I certainly don't remember any prominent Leave campaigner saying there was a good chance we could end up with no deal. In fact David Davies said we will end up with a deal with exactly the same benefits as we had while we are a member, and Liam Fox said the trade deal will be the easiest deal to negotiate in history. What a couple of jokers those two are.

 

[flecc]

In fact David Davies said we will end up with a deal with exactly the same benefits as we had while we are a member, and Liam Fox said the trade deal will be the easiest deal to negotiate in history. What a couple of jokers those two are.

Indeed, Boris Johnson and others also took this line that the EU would be eager to give us a good deal and that it would be easy to get. They completely ignored the EU telling them that any deal would have to be worse than remaining.

Now that has happened they cry foul, saying the EU is punishing us! It doesn't seem to occur to them that it's we who are punishing ourselves by leaving.
.

 

[oldgroaner]

Why this utter rubbish repeated again Zlatan?

A 7% loss of all German exports to us isn't catastrophic, the equivalent 50% loss we will suffer if that came into play would be catastrophic for us.

They can afford to lose us, we can't afford to lose all our EU business.

Of course neither will happen, any changes will be gradual.
.

Hasn't he gone away by now? you'd think he could find more amusing things to do. after all he has nothing to contribute to the debate coming out with rubbish like that.

 

[Woosh]

I remember thinking though as you have just posted that a reduction in some of this trade say 15 or 20% is not going to make much of a difference to any of the 27, but will have a massive impact on us. I don't recall anyone on the Remain side making this point, or if they did they didn't seem to make it very well.

In case of No Deal brexit, we won't want to delay imports at Dover or Folkestone and to charge them import duty while the EU is more likely to delay our exports to them and charge us import duty.

The loss of trade and extra costs will be entirely ours until we get a deal.