Brexit, for once some facts.

D8ve

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jan 30, 2013
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often, referendum is not the right way to gauge the public mood because the general public lacks expertise.
Perhaps it is the right way to determine mood.
However the elected representatives have then to decide on the actual way ahead. So majority for hanging post misc, events means by treaty we don't etc.
It's mood not law we decided.
 
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trex

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May 15, 2011
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the brexit referendum is about economics versus democracy. With hindsight, we should have expected that the general public understands democracy far better than economics.
 

tillson

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May 29, 2008
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You've used a great example to disprove even your own point.

In the case of a jury, in the UK.... its not a simply majority that wins rule. It has to be 10–2 (10–1 if only eleven jurors remain) is needed for a verdict; failure to reach this may lead to a retrial.

So in the case of this referendum, which even if you round up is 6-4, it would be considered a hung jury and might need a retrial.
I am aware of the jury rules and what you say in that regard is correct. The rules are known in advance and sentence or acquittal is measured against a set of pre-determined and clearly stated parameters. everyone goes into the process knowing what the deal is.

The parameters for the referendum were that a majority wins, no caveats were imposed such as at least 60% of the population must vote out for it to be carried. Perhaps that rule or similar should have been applied but it wasn't. The deal was whichever side of the vote was greater than 50% would be carried. Them's the rules & that's the deal, end of.

The truth is that remain thought they were going to win, but by a slim majority. They assumed that by imposing a minimum percentage for a vote to be carried, it would scupper the plan. Well it has bitten them on the @rse and now they are trying to re-write the rule book. That is all that needs to be said. Sorry.
 
I am aware of the jury rules and what you say in that regard is correct. The rules are known in advance and sentence or acquittal is measured against a set of pre-determined and clearly stated parameters. everyone goes into the process knowing what the deal is.

The parameters for the referendum were that a majority wins, no caveats were imposed such as at least 60% of the population must vote out for it to be carried. Perhaps that rule or similar should have been applied but it wasn't. The deal was whichever side of the vote was greater than 50% would be carried. Them's the rules & that's the deal, end of.

The truth is that remain thought they were going to win, but by a slim majority. They assumed that by imposing a minimum percentage for a vote to be carried, it would scupper the plan. Well it has bitten them on the @rse and now they are trying to re-write the rule book. That is all that needs to be said. Sorry.
Personally I don't think anyone in any position of power trying to re-write the rule book, and I'm not arguing with anything you've said above.

However I would add that I think not only did "remain" expect to win, "leave" expected to loose, so they could carry on the fight. The result caught everyone in power by surprise.

I still believe there will be some negotiation over the next 6-12 months that is considered enough in a change in the terms of our memebership of the EU that it will be considered enough for the plans for article 50 to be shelved.

This will keep both sides of the power battle happy, as UKIP can go on complaining whilst the country benefits from its EU membership.
 

trex

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May 15, 2011
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nobody denies the result, some of us say it was a mistake so we should look for a democratic way of reversing it.
 
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tillson

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Personally I don't think anyone in any position of power trying to re-write the rule book, and I'm not arguing with anything you've said above.

However I would add that I think not only did "remain" expect to win, "leave" expected to loose, so they could carry on the fight. The result caught everyone in power by surprise.

I still believe there will be some negotiation over the next 6-12 months that is considered enough in a change in the terms of our memebership of the EU that it will be considered enough for the plans for article 50 to be shelved.

This will keep both sides of the power battle happy, as UKIP can go on complaining whilst the country benefits from its EU membership.
I agree with some of what you say here.
 
Mar 9, 2016
833
402
often, referendum is not the right way to gauge the public mood because the general public lacks expertise.
Are we assuming you have then ? Perhaps it should be anybody that agrees with you is intelligent enough to vote..And that's your idea of democracy..

And my point about negativity and the BS put out by Osbourne dragging pound down is totally over your head..so you cant vote either.

Just tell me one actual thing Brexit vote changed...nothing... So the only things that have caused dropping/ fluctuation is the loss of confidence caused by all the leavers talking BS and by certain folk,namely German banks, speculating...In effect nothing at all to do with Brexit.
 
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Mar 9, 2016
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nobody denies the result, some of us say it was a mistake so we should look for a democratic way of reversing it.
And just let folk who agree with you vote ? Or just those with degrees perhaps ? Or those in mensa ? Or christians?
Yep..good idea Trex. First step towards civil war. " you cant vote trex says you aren't well enough informed"
Its sort of a reverse catch 22. Anybody who thinks like that should not be allowed to vote ?? Perhaps.
 

trex

Esteemed Pedelecer
May 15, 2011
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...
Just tell me one actual thing Brexit vote changed...nothing....
brexit changes the direction of the UK economic policy.
A lot of investors do not think that it is better to be out of the EU than in, therefore confidence in our future success evaporates, they are pulling their money out, about 50 billions a month, and that withdrawal of funds causes the drop in value for sterling.
 
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trex

Esteemed Pedelecer
May 15, 2011
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Are we assuming you have then ? Perhaps it should be anybody that agrees with you is intelligent enough to vote..And that's your idea of democracy..
.
any democratic decision can be reversed by another democratic decision.
That how we should seek to reverse the last referendum.
 

oldtom

Esteemed Pedelecer
So basically you are saying that the European parliament is not Democratic and we have to bully them to achieve change.
Better for all concerned with that attitude we stay out and leave democracy to grown up nations.
If we hadn't sent the equivalent of a gang of football hooligans to represent us as MEPs we could have achieved change.
Lets face it they are better off without us.
Article 50 Now! lets enjoy what's left while we can, while there is still anything left to enjoy.
At the present rate it shouldn't take long for the lesson to be learned.
Perfectly summed up!

Tom
 

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
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No, what I am saying is that if there is a majority wanting to leave, which there is in this country, then we should leave. If the same applies in other countries, that is a majority of people wanting to leave, then they should also leave.I am saying that this appears to be the case in both France and Italy.

That is democracy, that's how it works, we do what the majority of people want to do. I know that doesn't sit very well with remainers, but unfortunately for them, that's the way it is.
I do so like your style, it almost works, however you did actually post this

"The EU needs to reform and after that it could be a very good thing, but they won't unless they are backed into a corner. As we have seen, the EU leaders are bullies and only way to deal with bullies is to hurt them. We might end up with a black eye, but that will heal and after that life will be better without the bullies. If enough people turn against them, which is highly likely, they will be destroyed and something new and better can replace the current EU."

Which proved my point exactly, you want to bully them and not use Democratic means, don't you?
 

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
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I am not surprised. That is the direct result of the drop in value of the Pound. Try explaining this to flud.
The off-balance sheet liabilities of our big four banks run into tens of trillions. One percent drop in the value of the Pound puts them directly into under-capitalized state.
Unfortunately you'll have to explain to Flud for me, he's taken his ball home and pressed the "Ignore" button again,(I suspect he's in training for the day when we adopt the Norway option and all we can do is suck our thumbs and not know what the EU are up to)
The ignore button is ideal for training for that methinks.
 
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oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
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Are we assuming you have then ? Perhaps it should be anybody that agrees with you is intelligent enough to vote..And that's your idea of democracy..

And my point about negativity and the BS put out by Osbourne dragging pound down is totally over your head..so you cant vote either.

Just tell me one actual thing Brexit vote changed...nothing... So the only things that have caused dropping/ fluctuation is the loss of confidence caused by all the leavers talking BS and by certain folk,namely German banks, speculating...In effect nothing at all to do with Brexit.
Now it's the German's Fault Flud?
Nice try!
And this from a person whose idea of democratic debate is to hide behind the ignore button!:rolleyes:
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,265
30,652
.... and now add Nissan to the list.

Currently suspended all investment plans, whilst they work out if the UK will continue to have access to the single market.

What a mess.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/nissan-boss-issues-uk-investment-warning-after-brexit-vote-a7174346.html
This is exactly what I forecast in this thread ahead of the referendum and had Brexiters telling me I was wrong and that Nissan was here to stay.

Fully leaving the EU will mean the beginning of such businesses departing and none from overseas setting up here in their place. Why would any business want to be in a small isolated market when they could be a stone's throw away in a single market six times the size?
.
 
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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30,652
Just tell me one actual thing Brexit vote changed...nothing...
No, the Brexist vote changed everything about the investment climate. From cautious optimism that the world's economy could continue to climb from the 2008 recession, the atmosphere has been changed to one of pessimism and genuine fear of a new recession.

So the only things that have caused dropping/ fluctuation is the loss of confidence
Yes, confidence is what motivates investment and lack of confidence kills investment.

caused by all the leavers talking BS
No, no investor decides on amateur comment, BS or otherwise.

and by certain folk,namely German banks, speculating...In effect nothing at all to do with Brexit.
Their speculation is everything to do with the Brexit vote outcome, it created the opportunity to speculate on the changed circumstance.
.
 

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