Brexit, for once some facts.

[flecc]

Ps. Pound recovered a bit, ftse at 11 month high. The hysterical panic is calming..

I agreed with almost all your post, but I don't think this last part has any relationship to hysteria. I believe it simply reflects relief that a moderate remainer has taken the top office, and not a full blown Brexiter like Michael Gove. The reading of the market is probably like mine, that we are likely to end up with a not very different relationship with the EU.
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[RobF]

No Rob, I don't mean that, I know exactly what I mean and I am not a leave denier. I believe we will hand in article 50 notice and formally leave the EU.

But I also think that departure will take the form I indicated. My reason for that is the way the departure is being delayed by Theresa May, insisting that she wants to discuss options with the EU first and that the article 50 notice might not be served until next Spring. That's someone playing safe to avoid losing too much of what we have.

As for the entirety of Theresa May's statement that I listened to, I heard much the same from Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair on their respective appointments. It's an old formula, telling us how they'll unite us in a way we'll all be included and looked after.

I've been around too long to be fooled by that rhetoric any longer.
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Seems we are in broad agreement.

Most of May's statement is, as you say, routine political rhetoric and largely meaningless.

About the only nailed on meaningful phrase is 'Brexit means Brexit'.

 

[derf]

Sorry OG but I totally agree with sentiments in this post. Yes we,ve all argued, disagreed but the insults ,, sarcasm and put d.owns in every case start with one of your posts.

New PM has no choice but to take us out. Art 50 will be initiated without a doubt.
Its been mentioned other EU countries have ignored teferenums. They have but they have all been on eu statutes. Our government ignoring one would be a precedent. No way on earth a conservative govt would ignore 17 million voters. Their primary directive is staying in power, everything after that is secondary. Yes there is no viable. Opposition at moment,but just stop and think what Labour would be saying if May remained. Its not going to happen.
Ps. Pound recovered a bit, ftse at 11 month high. The hysterical panic is calming..

I sincerely disagree. For me the insults invariably start with a brexitter,usually brendan,not being able to argue a point factually,rationally and engaging in the kind of name calling and trolling i havent experienced since kindergarten. If it wasnt so absurd, and refreshing to have flashbacks of being four, i'd feel hurt.

 

[RobF]

I agreed with almost all your post, but I don't think this last part has any relationship to hysteria. I believe it simply reflects relief that a moderate remainer has taken the top office, and not a full blown Brexiter like Michael Gove. The reading of the market is probably like mine, that we are likely to end up with a not very different relationship with the EU.
.

My interpretation is the market is responding to some political stability.

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

About the only nailed on meaningful phrase is 'Brexit means Brexit'.

even that doesn't mean anything. Yes, "Brexit means Brexit"

ie it means 17 million people voted to say they wanted to leave the EU.

That's a fact isn't it?

It's one of those statements that doesn't mean anything though.

Does it mean she'll submit Article 50 notification on Thursday? No
Does it mean she'll put it to a parliment vote? No
Does it mean she wants to leave? No

The only thing it does really mean is that she wants to appear to be listening and not upset anyone. Which as we all know is impossible for a politician to do. So all we can do is wait and she what she'll actually do.

Because this statement doesn't say anything about what she'll actually do.

 

[flecc]

My interpretation is the market is responding to some political stability.

Agreed, they see May as a better sign of stability than someone more inclined to extreme change.
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[RobF]

even that doesn't mean anything. Yes, "Brexit means Brexit"
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Do the next nine words 'and we're going to make a success of it' make the meaning any clearer?

 

[flecc]

About the only nailed on meaningful phrase is 'Brexit means Brexit'.

But it's not is it?

Of course a word said the first time means the same as when repeated.

Referendum means referendum, voter means voter.

All nonsensical, and therefore as statements to transmit information, they're meaningless.
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[flecc]

Do the next nine words 'and we're going to make a success of it' make the meaning any clearer?

No, since she wouldn't say "we're going to make a failure of it", would she?

It's just more meaningless rhetoric.
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[derf]

even that doesn't mean anything. Yes, "Brexit means Brexit"

ie it means 17 million people voted to say they wanted to leave the EU.

That's a fact isn't it?

It's one of those statements that doesn't mean anything though.

Does it mean she'll submit Article 50 notification on Thursday? No
Does it mean she'll put it to a parliment vote? No
Does it mean she wants to leave? No

The only thing it does really mean is that she wants to appear to be listening and not upset anyone. Which as we all know is impossible for a politician to do. So all we can do is wait and she what she'll actually do.

Because this statement doesn't say anything about what she'll actually do.

"brexit means soft brexit" in this case I think. there's a whole range of possible brexits, of which to state the obvious the markets think Norway plus is most likely.

 

[RobF]

No, since she wouldn't say "we're going to make a failure of it", would she?

It's just more meaningless rhetoric.
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All the stuff about uniting the country and giving people more say in their futures is rhetoric, not least because it's intangible.

Saying we are going to make a success of Brexit leaves very little room to doubt what the intention is.

The leave terms are bit beyond me, but I'm struggling to see how we can leave and still have a close and not so different relationship with the EU.

 

[(NoLongerRegistered#15675)]

even that doesn't mean anything. Yes, "Brexit means Brexit"

ie it means 17 million people voted to say they wanted to leave the EU.

That's a fact isn't it?

It's one of those statements that doesn't mean anything though.

Does it mean she'll submit Article 50 notification on Thursday? No
Does it mean she'll put it to a parliment vote? No
Does it mean she wants to leave? No

The only thing it does really mean is that she wants to appear to be listening and not upset anyone. Which as we all know is impossible for a politician to do. So all we can do is wait and she what she'll actually do.

Because this statement doesn't say anything about what she'll actually do.

Agree with all that. No way she,ll invoke art 50 anytime soon..but she will, for reasons I mentioned earlier, she has to, I,d guess within 3 months.
But who knows.
Flecc
There was a lot of hysteria. We had friends backing out of house purchases on stength of " brexit". No change in borrowing rate( probably going to be lower) This was common, still say it was caused by Osbourne's pathetic campaign and Camerons inability to plan for losing referendum. As has been shown with May taking charge, he didn't have to see it as a loss..because it wasn't. Country changing direction is not a loss, ot shouldn't be.

 

[flecc]

The leave terms are bit beyond me, but I'm struggling to see how we can leave and still have a close and not so different relationship with the EU.

One word, Norway.

They voted not to join the EU, but their relationship is nearly identical to ours. They accept free movement, they have most of the EU laws, (even our pedelec one!), and they pay in substantially.

What they don't have is any say in any of those.
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[KTM Bike Industries UK]

Do the next nine words 'and we're going to make a success of it' make the meaning any clearer?

Ok, so lets take it that "Brexit" is the vote by the UK to leave the UK... agreed.

So she's said... we're going to make a success of it.

That doesn't mean anything. It means this has happened and we're going to try to make the best of it, that's all.

it doesn't mean we'll leave the EU, it doesn't mean we'll stay, it doesn't mean we'll leave the EEA, it doesn't mean she'll be PM within 3 weeks. It doesn't mean there will or won't be a vote in Parliament on it, and it doesn't mean there will or won't be a general election before Article 50 is approved.

It doesn't mean anything, its just more political waffle, isn't it?

 

[Kudoscycles]

Seems we are in broad agreement.

Most of May's statement is, as you say, routine political rhetoric and largely meaningless.

About the only nailed on meaningful phrase is 'Brexit means Brexit'.

Rob,'Brexit means Brexit'...then look further down May's statement and she says 'the need of course to negotiate the best deal for Britain in leaving the EU'
Those statements are contradictory and May knows it....if 'Brexit means Brexit whatever the deal the EU chooses to give us'...would we give them 30 billion euros to stay in the single market,would we give them unlimited fishing rights in our waters,would we say that all EU citizens can stay in subsidised housing and NHS access but our citizens in mainland Europe can be kicked out.
Ok I have gone to extremes but if Brexit does really mean Brexit we have to get out whatever....this gives May massive wriggle room,she will start to lean towards Brexit means Brexit when we get a good deal.
Also,if Article 50 is triggered that could cause the break up of the union,no prime minister would want to be in charge when the UK broke apart.
Also,everyone keeps disregarding Parliament,I think we have all accepted that the referendum was only advisory,before Article 50 can be triggered we need to repeal the 1972 European Communities Act,that can only be done by an Act of Parliament,there are 450 MPs who would vote against that-all the Leavers seem to ignore this obstacle but I just done see any way that it can be overcome,maybe others have solutions?
So 'Brexit means Brexit' to keep 17 million people and 84 Tory MPs happy but I dont think May really means it unless she can get a super deal out of the EU and we all know that is not going to happen.
KudosDave

 

[flecc]

Agree with all that. No way she,ll invoke art 50 anytime soon..but she will, for reasons I mentioned earlier, she has to, I,d guess within 3 months.

She's mentioned it could be Spring, so could be far beyond three months, more like nine. She's intent on knowing terms first, very sensible since once article 50 is served, we're on our way out and will have to accept whatever crumbs they offer.

Flecc
There was a lot of hysteria. We had friends backing out of house purchases on stength of " brexit". No change in borrowing rate( probably going to be lower)

I agree for many, but our markets are far too mature to let hysteria take hold. They saw a risk that some of the more extreme brexiters could pose if taking control so backed off. That's not hysteria, it's just a sensible precaution. Now that risk is removed, they reflect that in greater confidence.

Market traders are no different from bookmakers, both make hard nosed judgements of outcome risk and act accordingly.
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[Kudoscycles]

Sorry OG but I totally agree with sentiments in this post. Yes we,ve all argued, disagreed but the insults ,, sarcasm and put d.owns in every case start with one of your posts.

New PM has no choice but to take us out. Art 50 will be initiated without a doubt.
Its been mentioned other EU countries have ignored teferenums. They have but they have all been on eu statutes. Our government ignoring one would be a precedent. No way on earth a conservative govt would ignore 17 million voters. Their primary directive is staying in power, everything after that is secondary. Yes there is no viable. Opposition at moment,but just stop and think what Labour would be saying if May remained. Its not going to happen.
Ps. Pound recovered a bit, ftse at 11 month high. The hysterical panic is calming..

You have to remember that many of those 17 million voters are die hard Tories,the referendum gave them an opportunity to make a protest vote against immigration.
But when a General Election comes along they will vote Tory,as they always have. They cant vote Labour,they are in a mess and anyway are mostly Remainers,UKIP is dead now that Farage has quit.
Theresa May knows that in 4 years time it will be situation normal,she will have to put a nice package together to give the impression that she has achieved something to placate the Brexit vote,but she will have nothing to fear from the 17 million,the worst that can happen is that they will fail to vote in protest but that will be very few.
Kudos'Tory' Dave

 

[Kudoscycles]

She's mentioned it could be Spring, so could be far beyond three months, more like nine. She's intent on knowing terms first, very sensible since once article 50 is served, we're on our way out and will have to accept whatever crumbs they offer.



I agree for many, but our markets are far too mature to let hysteria take hold. They saw a risk that some of the more extreme brexiters could pose if taking control so backed off. That's not hysteria, it's just a sensible precaution. Now that risk is removed, they reflect that in greater confidence.

Market traders are no different from bookmakers, both make hard nosed judgements of outcome risk and act accordingly.
.

Flecc....if she is really determined to Brexit,how do you think she is going to get the repeal of the 1972 European Communities Act through Parliament?
Without achieving this,Brexit cannot happen?
KudosDAve

 

[Kudoscycles]

Sorry OG but I totally agree with sentiments in this post. Yes we,ve all argued, disagreed but the insults ,, sarcasm and put d.owns in every case start with one of your posts.

New PM has no choice but to take us out. Art 50 will be initiated without a doubt.
Its been mentioned other EU countries have ignored teferenums. They have but they have all been on eu statutes. Our government ignoring one would be a precedent. No way on earth a conservative govt would ignore 17 million voters. Their primary directive is staying in power, everything after that is secondary. Yes there is no viable. Opposition at moment,but just stop and think what Labour would be saying if May remained. Its not going to happen.
Ps. Pound recovered a bit, ftse at 11 month high. The hysterical panic is calming..

Flud...she cannot legally take us out,Cameron didnt consider this when he offered the referendum because he thought he was a sure winner,but we cannot leave without Parliament voting.
May can blaim Parliament for keeping us in.
Brendan keeps accusing me of lies but Google the '1972 European Communites Act,Brexit' and it will reveal all.
KudosDave

 

[Kudoscycles]

There ,saved you the Googling
Parliament must still vote on a bill to allow the UK to leave the European Union, leading lawyers have said.

Geoffrey Robertson QC, who founded the Doughty Street Chambers, said the act which set up the referendum said "nothing" about its impact, meaning it was "purely advisory".

A new bill to repeal the 1972 European Communities Act that took Britain into the EU must now be passed by parliament, he said, adding that MPs might not be able to vote until November when the economic effects of Brexit will be clearer.

"Under our constitution, speaking as a constitutional lawyer, sovereignty rests in what we call the Queen in parliament," he told The Independent.

"It's the right of MPs alone to make or break laws, and the peers to block them. So there's no force whatsoever in the referendum result. It's entirely for MPs to decide.

Didnt tell us that before we voted,did they?

KudosDave