Brexit, for once some facts.

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

Having read the article I came away with this:

Secret Accountant fears that more bicycle businesses will fail this year, and he's not alone. What's causing this global slowdown in bike sales? If there's one single reason – and, in a complex world, this is unlikely – the reason would be fashion. Cycling is in one of its periodic troughs. As I explain in my book Bike Boom the popularity of cycling – both in sales and in use – seems to go in 15–20-year, er, cycles.

No one would be pleased to see any industry suffer but it is just too convenient to lay the blame on Brexit - would seem that you're out of fashion this year.

Brexit is part of it, I'm not saying its the sole cause, I'm not that naive.

We're still growing and taking market share, of what is clearly a decreasing market, but we're having to be aggressive to do that, and that's included massively cutting our margin to help absorb the cost of the declining £. So our end consumer prices are more competitive. For example our margin on eBikes is 1/2 what it was 2 years ago! That's not an easy cut for any business to make, but we're having to do it.

We've done this because we're small and our overheads are lower, so we can be lean.

But this has knock on effects, no investment, less marketing, plans for more staff have been put on hold, etc etc. All this impacts on other business and people who supply us.

 

[Danidl]

Seems whilst many have been arguing pros and cons of brexit, and some simply knocking Brexit, others have been busy building for the future.
Peter Hargreaves has started a new investment company, he,s still on board at HL but plays little part in it nowadays.
His new company is planning on giving capital growth for investors ( income has always been favoured in past by UK investors, catered for in HL)
His policy with his new company is investment out of EU, predominantly USA, which he argues is under represented in UK at moment. He,s talking 69% in USA, 20% UK , rest world wide. But then again what does he know about economics of UK...after all he only made rich 150 list starting up in a spare bedroom. He,s UK based and will remain so. He has a private jet at Heathrow for holidays. He,s worth over 2 billion..and he,s paid enough tax to keep a small town going. HL is biggest investment company in UK...
I wonder who I,ll take advice from for economic success in UK...knockers on here or PH..

.. you have made many references to this Mr Hargreaves over an extended period of postings.
Could we compare him with a Mr Michael O Leary?. A farmer from co Westmeath, who has also built up what was a bankrupt airline, employing many thousands, providing millions of trips per year into the most successful trans Europe airline., who didn't have a private jet, but uses the scheduled services of the airline he is linked to, who pays his taxes , who only has a nett worth apparently of half that of your Mr Hargreaves . But who is strongly opposed to the "bonkers " , his term of what Brexit is.
You may say that he has a vested interest... He does, because he has stated that there is no value in running flights into 10% of the union , when 90% are operating to a different legal regime. He will simply withdraw all services from the UK unless the UK air transport authority continues to observe ECJ oversight.

But does your Mr Hargreaves not also have a vested interest?. These financial operations thrive on uncertainty and make money irrespective of whether markets rise or fall. In what way will Mr Hargreaves actions benefit the UK and not just Mr Hargreaves and his coterie?

 

[Woosh]

all the remainers on here are way too pessimistic, no wonder that the brexiters are not convinced by your vision of doom and gloom. They will just tell you 'we don't care what it will cost, we just want our country back'.
To be credible, you need a dose of realism.
The ballpark figure for the deal is around £60 billions.
It's worth every penny, we know it, the EU knows it too.
If you are not convinced, just look at the drop in FDI since A50. It's less than a half of the FDI in one year and FDI is what props up the Pound in the first place.
That's roughly the net membership fees + increase in liabilities for 3 to 4 years of staying in. Staying in will just be more onerous and does not suit half of the electorate.

What would it be if TM had said 'OK up to £60 billions'. She'll be kicked out of her job even with a promise of an FTA. The brexiters will not want the EU to have their money.
So she can't say she would accept such an amount, and remainers would not be happy if she had agreed to such a sum any way.
The deal has to be seen as difficult to achieve for all the negotiators so they can claim victory and credit, that is, agreement in secret and announced at the 11 hours 59 minutes.

 

[oldtom]

No one would be pleased to see any industry suffer but it is just too convenient to lay the blame on Brexit - would seem that you're out of fashion this year.

Mmm.....perhaps it is you who is out of touch with reality.

Tom

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

No one would be pleased to see any industry suffer but it is just too convenient to lay the blame on Brexit - would seem that you're out of fashion this year.

This last 12 months seem to have seen pretty universal decline in sales in most industries hasn't it?

Cars for instance.

Steady growth in new car registrations since the financial crash, and then suddenly 2017 decline....

I'll leave you to think about what could be the link to all this decline that has suddenly hit the UK.

 

[Danidl]

Having read the article I came away with this:

Secret Accountant fears that more bicycle businesses will fail this year, and he's not alone. What's causing this global slowdown in bike sales? If there's one single reason – and, in a complex world, this is unlikely – the reason would be fashion. Cycling is in one of its periodic troughs. As I explain in my book Bike Boom the popularity of cycling – both in sales and in use – seems to go in 15–20-year, er, cycles.

No one would be pleased to see any industry suffer but it is just too convenient to lay the blame on Brexit - would seem that you're out of fashion this year.

Perhaps I am out of my depth here, but could the reason be that in the UK, and to a lesser extent here in Ireland ,is that cycling is seen As a leisure activity. The ratio of mountain bikes to urban bikes sold would support that... Look at the types of bike used for commuting and on city roads and pathways. The majority are mountain bikes , some are road racers and a minority are conventional commuting machines. Despite the fact that the conventional type is more comfortable and safer? In city cycling.

Bike riding in the UK got a huge boost from the performance of the elite athletes in the last few Olympics...
In other countries cycling remains a commuter activity, so less affected by fashion and fads

 

[PeterL]

Mmm.....perhaps it is you who is out of touch with reality.

Tom

You might be right but at least I read the article and I responded to it, accurately. You, on the other hand chose to respond to me. As I say you might be right but that is totally irrelevant.

 

[PeterL]

This last 12 months seem to have seen pretty universal decline in sales in most industries hasn't it?

Cars for instance.

Steady growth in new car registrations since the financial crash, and then suddenly 2017 decline....

I'll leave you to think about what could be the link to all this decline that has suddenly hit the UK.

You might want to take a look at these figures?

https://www.am-online.com/data/manufacturer-insight

I grant you that October doesn't look too good.

New car registrations fell 6.4% in August but the SMMT expects “historically high levels of demand” to continue as motorists flock to buy September’s 67-plate vehicles.
A total of 76,433 vehicles were sold in August as the market declined 6.4% over the same period in 2016 to take the year-to-date market to 1.64m – down 2.4% on the first eight months of last year.

It was the fifth consecutive month of market decline for the UK car retail sector but the SMMT insisted that sales figures has so far “remained broadly in line with expectations”.


Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, said: “August is typically a quiet month for the new car market as consumers and businesses delay purchases until the arrival of the new number plate in September.

“With the new 67-plate now available and a range of new models in showrooms, we anticipate the continuation of what are historically high levels of demand.”

 

[PeterL]

Seems to have taken a long time for this to break on here - good news for a change?

Brexit talks deadlock 'exaggerated', European Council president Donald Tusk says

EU agrees to begin preparing for Brexit trade talks

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41684111

 

[oldtom]

good news for a change?
Brexit talks deadlock 'exaggerated'

You really have to be desperate to find solace in that headline. How do you manage to equate those 4 words in that banner headline with
the term, 'good news'?

Tom

 

[oldgroaner]

Seems whilst many have been arguing pros and cons of brexit, and some simply knocking Brexit, others have been busy building for the future.
Peter Hargreaves has started a new investment company, he,s still on board at HL but plays little part in it nowadays.
His new company is planning on giving capital growth for investors ( income has always been favoured in past by UK investors, catered for in HL)
His policy with his new company is investment out of EU, predominantly USA, which he argues is under represented in UK at moment. He,s talking 69% in USA, 20% UK , rest world wide. But then again what does he know about economics of UK...after all he only made rich 150 list starting up in a spare bedroom. He,s UK based and will remain so. He has a private jet at Heathrow for holidays. He,s worth over 2 billion..and he,s paid enough tax to keep a small town going. HL is biggest investment company in UK...
I wonder who I,ll take advice from for economic success in UK...knockers on here or PH..

And exactly what use is this man and his swindles to the average normal human being?
What does he know about the value of a caring Society?
Nothing Whatosever, he is just another parasite of the variety you want to emulate.
That's why you voted for Brexit as you saw it , by your own admission as a noce little earner and the social cost is of no interest to you, is it?

 

[flecc]

You might want to take a look at these figures?

https://www.am-online.com/data/manufacturer-insight

I grant you that October doesn't look too good.

New car registrations fell 6.4% in August but the SMMT expects “historically high levels of demand” to continue as motorists flock to buy September’s 67-plate vehicles.
A total of 76,433 vehicles were sold in August as the market declined 6.4% over the same period in 2016 to take the year-to-date market to 1.64m – down 2.4% on the first eight months of last year.

It was the fifth consecutive month of market decline for the UK car retail sector but the SMMT insisted that sales figures has so far “remained broadly in line with expectations”.


Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, said: “August is typically a quiet month for the new car market as consumers and businesses delay purchases until the arrival of the new number plate in September.

“With the new 67-plate now available and a range of new models in showrooms, we anticipate the continuation of what are historically high levels of demand.”

You're showing inaccurate information, try this link:

UK car sales slide for a sixth month amid falling consumer confidence

No matter how Brexiters try to talk things up, Brexit is going to be very bad for this country.

 

[oldtom]

As I say you might be right but that is totally irrelevant.

Perhaps you could enlighten me as to what you consider is relevant? I just get the feeling that you are so self-absorbed and preoccupied with expanding your personal wealth, particularly after the unnecessary plug for your book, that you have no compassion for your fellow man - is life solely about the survival of the fittest in your little bubble?

Such self-aggrandisement is usually the province of politicians - perhaps you missed your vocation.

Tom

 

[oldgroaner]

all the remainers on here are way too pessimistic, no wonder that the brexiters are not convinced by your vision of doom and gloom. They will just tell you 'we don't care what it will cost, we just want our country back'.
To be credible, you need a dose of realism.
The ballpark figure for the deal is around £60 billions.
It's worth every penny, we know it, the EU knows it too.
If you are not convinced, just look at the drop in FDI since A50. It's less than a half of the FDI in one year and FDI is what props up the Pound in the first place.
That's roughly the net membership fees + increase in liabilities for 3 to 4 years of staying in. Staying in will just be more onerous and does not suit half of the electorate.

What would it be if TM had said 'OK up to £60 billions'. She'll be kicked out of her job even with a promise of an FTA. The brexiters will not want the EU to have their money.
So she can't say she would accept such an amount, and remainers would not be happy if she had agreed to such a sum any way.
The deal has to be seen as difficult to achieve for all the negotiators so they can claim victory and credit, that is, agreement in secret and announced at the 11 hours 59 minutes.

We shouldn't be paying a penny on the grounds we shouldn't be, leaving in any case, the whole idea of Brexit is the result of taking idiots too seriously, and doing real harm in the process, no matter how many clowns leap to it's defence.

 

[oldtom]

A long way off topic but I honestly believe George Galloway is to be commended for his honest criticism of the Murdoch propaganda organisation in this interview.

If only some of our media stars in the UK were as honest and forthright as Galloway!

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10155718310875797

Tom

 

[flecc]

The one thing that the Government did get unquestionably right was NOT joining the Euro. To have done so either then or in the immediate future would simply see us fail along with the rest, albeit that would be a form of contributing to the future shape and direction.

A completely false basis for a conclusion, I'd have expected better from you. If the UK had joined the euro, throwing in the strength of the pound, the euro would have had a very different and far more successful future.

And that isn't solely based on the combined strength. The currency traders would have ceased their relentless attacks on the euro to try to bring it down out of their hatred of combining multiple currencies into one. With the pound merged too they would have realised that game was up and they weren't going to win with that tactic.
.

 

[Danidl]

A completely false basis for a conclusion, I'd have expected better from you. If the UK had joined the euro, throwing in the strength of the pound, the euro would have had a very different and far more successful future.

And that isn't solely based on the combined strength. The currency traders would have ceased their relentless attacks on the euro to try to bring it down out of their hatred of combining multiple currencies into one. With the pound merged too they would have realised that game was up and they weren't going to win with that tactic.
.

.. currency exchange dealers don't hate, no more than a shark hates smaller fish. They just attack and attack if there is potential for profit.

 

[Woosh]

A completely false basis for a conclusion, I'd have expected better from you. If the UK had joined the euro, throwing in the strength of the pound, the euro would have had a very different and far more successful future.

High unemployment is a direct result of one size does not fit all. The 1998 Stability and Growth Pact is the source of troubles. Just imagine China is subjected to the same kind of policy, she would not have been able to lift hundreds of millions of Chinese out of poverty. In the EU, the stability pact coupled with the Euro cause high level of unemployment in the Southern eurozone countries.
We have been working very well with the EU economically and the high level of EU immigration into the UK is a direct consequence of our more flexible economy.

 

[flecc]

.. currency exchange dealers don't hate, no more than a shark hates smaller fish. They just attack and attack if there is potential for profit.

Oh yes they do hate currencies being combined, the more they are combined the smaller the number of possibilities to manipulate one against another. Never run away with the idea that they only trade opportunities that happen to crop up, they manipulate currencies one against another to create artificial opportunities.

In its own way it's just as bad as the Libor rate fiddling since it distorts the truth about values, but the complexity prevents enough being known to do anything about it.

And of course there's the machine based trading programs taking second by second tiny gains from minute currency movements, the scale of the trades making the outcome worthwhile. Once again a reduction in the number of currencies available reduces the opportunities and gains.
.

 

[flecc]

High unemployment is a direct result of one size does not fit all. The 1998 Stability and Growth Pact is the source of troubles. Just imagine China is subjected to the same kind of policy, she would not have been able to lift hundreds of millions of Chinese out of poverty. In the EU, the stability pact coupled with the Euro cause high level of unemployment in the Southern eurozone countries.
We have been working very well with the EU economically and the high level of EU immigration into the UK is a direct consequence of our more flexible economy.

None of which affected my point, that combining the pound into the euro would have resulted in a very much stronger euro.
.