Brexit, for once some facts.

[Kudoscycles]

Junkers analogy that if 28 people were together in a bar and one leaves you would expect the leaver to pay. Junkers knows a lot about bars!
It's an awful analogy,OK the guy leaving may leave his share on the bar,or his mates may say....don't worry we'll pick up the tab......but nobody would expect the guy leaving to pay for the other 27 and also give a tip to the manager and pay the mortgage on the bar for many years ahead.
KudosDave

 

[Danidl]

Junkers analogy that if 28 people were together in a bar and one leaves you would expect the leaver to pay. Junkers knows a lot about bars!
It's an awful analogy,OK the guy leaving may leave his share on the bar,or his mates may say....don't worry we'll pick up the tab......but nobody would expect the guy leaving to pay for the other 27 and also give a tip to the manager and pay the mortgage on the bar for many years ahead.
KudosDave

We can agree on one thing.. it's an awful analogy. Perhaps I could extend it...and make it far worser

The 28 are in the bar, buying rounds etc, one of the group is boorish, but in a bid to curry favour paid the taxi fare for a few of the others to get there. When the evening does not go to plan, he storms out, despite having promised to pay for those few taxis.

 

[Danidl]

You are indeed sounding like Nick Clegg. I really do not think that the UK population ever thought that when we joined the EU it was to become a complete integral part of the EU. That was probably the start of the lie?


There seems to be a habit of this with the INDYRef1 and no doubt INDYRef2 whenever it comes. None of the Exiles where allowed to vote and neither was my wife come to that.

.. if that was the position of this Mr Clegg, then he agrees with me!, So he must be right!

But at every stage in the 40 years from then to now, from EEC to EU, the UK Government had a say and agreed to all they needed to agree to and opted out where they wanted. The EU is as much a creature of UK engagement as any other major European economy. Its not that they slept walked into this. There was no lie. Up until recently there was full power of veto by any Commissioner who as I said earlier was an appointment by their national government.

 

[Woosh]

We can agree on one thing.. it's an awful analogy. Perhaps I could extend it...and make it far worser

The 28 are in the bar, buying rounds etc, one of the group is boorish, but in a bid to curry favour paid the taxi fare for a few of the others to get there. When the evening does not go to plan, he storms out, despite having promised to pay for those few taxis.

When 6 (1957) became 7 (1973), their budget was small and the scheme was seen as encouraging. Then they invited Greece to join (1981), promising lots of money. Money that wasn't there, just promises. That fact is important.
The success of Greece joining attracted Spain and Portugal (1986) on the same basis, promises of future grants, the scheme is fundamentally a ponzi scheme. We must see it for what it is, industrious Germany, UK and France reckon they'll sell to more captive consumers and will find the money to keep those new consumers tied to the club. Therefore, future costs are going to be covered by future gains in trade.Understanding this scheme is important in seeing the morale value of those forward commitments to help new, poorer countries to join the club. This is the basis to limit forward liabilities of membership. The UK leaving is more akin to selling your share in a business to other shareholders. If the cost of the divorce is 10 years of subscription then the value of the business is below zero, the said business should close ASAP to protect its remaining members from further losses. If the business is indeed flourishing then the UK should not have to pay exit fees.

 

[anotherkiwi]

I don't think they were invited but asked to join, there is a difference.

Did you visit Spain before and after they joined? They make bikes there still did you know? Several national brands that export even! https://www.orbea.com/gb-en/brands/gain-road/

 

[Woosh]

I don't think they were invited but asked to join, there is a difference.

Did you visit Spain before and after they joined? They make bikes there still did you know? Several national brands that export even! https://www.orbea.com/gb-en/brands/gain-road/

of course they do, and prosper after joining.
In a business sense, the EU is a Ponzi investment scheme. Not all Ponzi schemes will fail, even the one run by Bernie Madoff had enough assets to repay the investors. The EU is the grandest and most successful Ponzi scheme in the world.
By asking the UK a very large exit fee before talking trade deal, the EU asks the UK to cover its future costs for the next 10 years while it denies to the UK a share of its future profit. That is the morale ground for the UK to insist on linking future trade benefits against the divorce bill.

 

[oldtom]

One wonders just how much truth there is in this little piece - zero, an element, a lot.......or maybe it's all make-believe?

how-theresa-may-is-being-shepherded-to-a-hard-brexit-by-a-multibillionaire-dubai-based-new-zealand-fund-manager

Tom

 

[oldgroaner]

of course they do, and prosper after joining.
In a business sense, the EU is a Ponzi investment scheme. Not all Ponzi schemes will fail, even the one run by Bernie Madoff had enough assets to repay the investors. The EU is the grandest and most successful Ponzi scheme in the world.
By asking the UK a very large exit fee before talking trade deal, the EU asks the UK to cover its future costs for the next 10 years while it denies to the UK a share of its future profit. That is the morale ground for the UK to insist on linking future trade benefits against the divorce bill.

Is profit and loss your full horizon? It is merely a sideshow in the grand scheme of things, the EU represents far more for the future of the people in it then filling the pockets of business people, who seem to care not a jot for anything other than their bank balances, and let's face it can't really claim that brexit will improve even them.
Why they are so keen to suffer financial loss is a mystery.

Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk

 

[oldtom]

Ah, this explains fully why we need to get out of the EU and paddle our own canoe! We have been dragged to the bottom of the league and clearly, our only hope is to show the Europeans and the rest of the world just how smart we really are through 'Brexit'.

Now it all starts to make sense.......right?



Tom

 

[oldgroaner]

One wonders just how much truth there is in this little piece - zero, an element, a lot.......or maybe it's all make-believe?

how-theresa-may-is-being-shepherded-to-a-hard-brexit-by-a-multibillionaire-dubai-based-new-zealand-fund-manager

Tom

Let's face it, there is no other logical reason for the government to be keen on brexit than they they see some advantage in it,
And who can possibly believe that they have the well-being of the public at heart?
It is for whatever reason the ultimate mugging of the public.

Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk

 

[Woosh]

Is profit and loss your full horizon? It is merely a sideshow in the grand scheme of things, the EU represents far more for the future of the people in it then filling the pockets of business people, who seem to care not a jot for anything other than their bank balances, and let's face it can't really claim that brexit will improve even them.
Why they are so keen to suffer financial loss is a mystery.

Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk

Why is it wrong to talk about bills, income and trade?
We are leaving the EU so can only watch on the sideline and wish them the best of luck.

 

[oldgroaner]

Why is it wrong to talk about bills, income and trade?
We are leaving the EU so can only watch on the sideline and wish them the best of luck.

It is more important the treat the subject with the degree of attention it deserves than parochial local and temporary profit and loss concerns.
There is potential for major turmoil among the public, which puts financial matters in the shade.
For some reason Brexit supporters utterly ignore the danger in that.

 

[Woosh]

It is more important the treat the subject with the degree of attention it deserves than parochial local and temporary profit and loss concerns.
There is potential for major turmoil among the public, which puts financial matters in the shade.
For some reason Brexit supporters utterly ignore the danger in that.

To me, economics is more important than party politics. I have basically more faith and respect for economists than politicians.
Good economics benefits all, good politics benefits only people who agree with it.

 

[oldgroaner]

To me, economics is more important than party politics. I have basically more faith and respect for economists than politicians.
Good economics benefits all, good politics benefits only people who agree with it.

Brexit doesn't even make economic sense, does it?

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[PeterL]

Brexit doesn't even make economic sense, does it?

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It does in my book, but hard to quantify of course. A bit like a cash-flow projection is never a certainty. There are no certainties here, not for either side, it all comes down to a fundamental belief in what the future holds. Do we go straight on or do we change course?

 

[Woosh]

Brexit doesn't even make economic sense, does it?

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perhaps not, but I think not yet and we can always rejoin if the USE proves to be a success.
We can see the huge social problems in the USA, greater inequality in health, education, career prospect and racism. Would the USE be the model in the 21st century of how to be a superpower and not to be the USA?

 

[oldtom]

Good economics benefits all,

If only that were true! The tory party which has for decades prided itself on good husbandry of the public purse had nearly all of the 20th century and a few years of the 21st to demonstrate their economic acumen. They have singularly failed to do so. Indeed, quite the opposite is true!

Unless something dramatic has occurred since I began to type this, that selfsame party has repeatedly failed to demonstrate in any way, shape or form how the economics of secession from the EU will benefit the taxpayers of the UK. Remember that the government is charged with using the public purse for the benefit of the taxpaying public.

Is there some measure by which everyone can judge when we are benefitting from 'good economics'? Those tables I posted seem to suggest that the tory party notion of good economics differs hugely from any indicators I have ever seen.

Tom

 

[PeterL]

One wonders just how much truth there is in this little piece - zero, an element, a lot.......or maybe it's all make-believe?

how-theresa-may-is-being-shepherded-to-a-hard-brexit-by-a-multibillionaire-dubai-based-new-zealand-fund-manager

Tom

Probably not and I note that at least TB isn't on the list, makes sense to me.

 

[PeterL]

By asking the UK a very large exit fee before talking trade deal, the EU asks the UK to cover its future costs for the next 10 years while it denies to the UK a share of its future profit. That is the morale ground for the UK to insist on linking future trade benefits against the divorce bill.

This is probably one of the best points made yet. Not so sure it could be seen as a good investment but that is essentially what we are being asked to do. - albeit without any chance of a return, irrespective of whether or not the EU comes good. If we do pay the suggested divorce bill then we should surely have a stake in any future returns, equally be able to 'sell' our share back to the EU, assuming they would want to buy.

 

[Woosh]

Not so sure it could be seen as a good investment

I am not sure either.
As investment, the EU is basically a traditional partnership with unlimited liability.
It was a good investment in the early years, from 1957 to 2004 but since the enlargement in 2004 when 10 new countries join the EU: Czech Republic, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia, I think the EU promised far too much to these countries against future increases in trade and prosperity of existing members to pay for their integration. The banking losses since 2008, debts in eurozone, Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy, then the EU was hit by the mediterranean immigration crisis etc forever increasing the total liabilities, especially on the top 3 net contributors: Germany, the UK and France. I think more and more people in France and in Germany to a lesser extent, are losing faith in its future.