We have to reduce the number of motor vehicles on the road, whatever their power source.
Fully agreed, but what is so good about e-cars now is that they will be doing just that. It is clearly the policy of governments and the motor industry now they have woken up. Just look at the facts:
We are not going to get cheap normal e-cars, despite all the previous promises. In fact quite the opposite is happening, they are getting far more expensive and far beyond most wallets.
Why? Here's the answers.
The car industry is fed up with loss making small cars. You probably know that every original Mini ever made was at a loss and the same has long been true of all small cars. The industry has only ever made its profits from the premium up market models. That is why GM withdrew from Europe and why they virtually gave away Vauxhall and Opel brands to PSA (Peugeot-Citroen). Following that Ford announced they were also considering pulling out of Europe.
So now they've all come to their senses they are not repeating the mistake with e-cars so have sharply increased their prices and are eliminating cheaper models. They won't lose anything by doing that, they'll just be working less hard for the same or more profitability. When I bought my Leaf in 2018 the cheapest option was £22,000. They discontinued that and are now ending all Leaf models next year. The replacement is the Ariya model which for a reasonable spec starts around £37,000 with the premium model at £47,000. There's very few e-cars under £35k now and they are disappearing fast.
The mass of the public who have been buying new IC cars for from £8k to well under £20k just won't be able to afford those very high e-car prices, especially as the western world is getting poorer due to climate change measures and political trends.
And governments are willingly assisting by removing the e-car subsidies. No more £5000 grant to buy an e-car. No more £500 grant to buy a home charging point. No more free VED (road tax) from 2025. And the killer now is that electricity is just as dear as ic fuel for running a car.
As unfair and socially undesirable as it might seem, e-cars will be mainly for the minority privileged, so as ic car sales are banned and older ones wear out or suffer enforced scrappage, there will be far fewer cars left on the roads. I'd forecast at least a halving eventually.
In this country cycling won't be the big winner though, it will be public transport as London has already shown.
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