If the motor has 250 W stamped or cast on it it is 250 W it doesn't matter how many Watts you actually draw. Your legal limit is that the motor must stop assisting at 25 km/h. 48 V is the best performance option it is also the maximum legal limit for voltage (nominative you will be over 54 V hot off the charger).
Yes I will be very careful - and I may well sort out an alu arm once I've completed this conversion to a working bike. I understand the issue here and I think a possible solution might be to run a tight 1mm steel cable from the back wheel axle down to the axle for the swingarm... this would transfer much of the motor's 'pull' away from the arm itself and back to the frame of the bike - whilst not inhibiting any movement of the rear end suspension.
Cables are a very light weight method to resist loads, but again I would just consider that fact that the hub will try to apply torque to the dropouts (I assume the hub has the 'double flatted' axles that key into the dropouts, possibly in conjunction with steel keying devices). The dropouts will try to resist/react against this torque by applying a bending moment onto their joint into the carbon swingarm. That joint should have been designed to withstand heavy loads from the rear wheel impacts etc. But not necessarily the action of the dropout being twisted by the hub axle, around the centre line of the hub. Your cable sounds like it would only try to prevent the swingarm 'lengthening/flattening'? Which the swingarm is already designed to resist.
The other issue with wires and cables is that they need to be pretensioned a certain degree to take up the stretch. Which is potentially loading your swingarm in the opposite direction - putting it under compression as the wire tries to pull the hub towards the pivot.
Could you run the cable instead from the pivot, to the end of a torque arm that constrains the rotation of the hub?
I may well be over complicating all this, and I could well be underestimating the strength of your swingarm.
It's just worth bearing in mind that the benefit, and drawback of using composites is that the particular area of the component can be designed to handle specific loads, in specific directions, with specific laying off the carbon layers. And loads in unusual directions can prove an unplanned problem. By I'm just guessing.
I'm impressed with your ingenious plans by the way, and that you haven't defaulted to just using a heavy and inelegant swingarm construction.
I'd also try to find some novel way to handle the loads just as you have discussed, but then I'd probably never actually get round to finishing the design, and the thing would never get built or tested.
Paralysis-by-analysis as they say.
Good luck, post some photos as you progress.