Will e-bikes get cheaper?

[trex]

fundamental to the trend is the competition from Chinese makers. Crank drive bikes with TS Bafang Max drive are now sub $1,000, like this bike from x-max:

 

[Pedrao]

It wouldn't make sense for them to rise like that in an increasingly competitive market and lead batteries already having been ditched for lithium ion. What's the 20 percent based on, even if it is a rough guess?

 

[flecc]

It wouldn't make sense for them to rise like that in an increasingly competitive market and lead batteries already having been ditched for lithium ion. What's the 20 percent based on, even if it is a rough guess?

The fall in the pound has made all imports dearer and we are already getting price increases of 15 to 18% filtering in. Yesterday's inflation news isn't helping, it's much higher than expected and will increase supplier costs.

The spat between Tesco and Unilever was an indicator, the latter covering the increased cost of bringing in goods to the UK.
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[flecc]

I've hired a Dacia Logan ... twice ;-)

The perfect car for those who shop at Lidl and Aldi.
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[mike killay]

Obviously, a bike can be low specified or high specified regarding equipment, frame and saddle,
Costs can vary alarmingly.
But most of the cost seems to me to be related to weight which is not so crucial to ebikers.
Electric motors are much the same until you consider German out put which tends to be very high tech.
(The same is evident in electric outboard motors. Chinese and American outboards are simple and economical, German, such as Torqueedo are hopelessly over specced and include things like GPS...all, at a price.)
The real problem for cheap bikes is the battery.
Lithium, at present is expensive.
Chemistry is a well understood science. There is no 'magical' answer around the corner.
To give a better picture, my electric out board weighs 9 kilos. The 2x90 amp hour lead acid batteries weigh 19 kilos each. The engine runs at 400 watts, about just over half a horse power, and will run for 2.5 hours before the batteries are flat.
My Mariner 2 hp out board runs on petrol and weighs 11 kilos with a full tank. A litre of petrol will run for 3/4 of an hour.
A litre of petrol weighs just under a kilo.
So, if I use 38 litres ( same weight as the two lead acid batteries) I can run for 28 hours at 2 horse power, not half a horse power.
Clearly, electric, battery powered motors have a long way to go yet.

 

[flecc]

Clearly, electric, battery powered motors have a long way to go yet.

The motors are fine of course, they can propel whole trains at speeds that rival jet airliner services. But batteries are a very different issue, I'm sure they could never get anywhere near the energy density of fossil fuels, no matter how far development goes.
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[Deleted member 4366]

The motors are fine of course, they can propel whole trains at speeds that rival jet airliner services. But batteries are a very different issue, I'm sure they could never get anywhere near the energy density of fossil fuels, no matter how far development goes.
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Probably not in your lifetime, but one day there will be batteries with equivalent specific energy or more.

Remember that we don't count the oxygen needed for combustion when we talk about energy densities of fossil fuels. Already on the horizon is the lithium air battery that is predicted to reach over 11,000 Wh/kg, which is very close to fossil fuels - 40 MJ/kg vs 48 MJ/kg. I'm sure that there will be plenty more inventions yet.

 

[flecc]

I'm just used to the way predictions about batteries always fall so far short of what's promised. As I've often observed, after 200 years of development we still use the earliest technology for the most common high drain usage, starting vehicles.
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[trex]

we did not have fuel cells then. Maybe cold nuclear fusion within this century.

 

[flecc]

we did not have fuel cells then. Maybe cold nuclear fusion within this century.

. Pigs and aviation come to mind.
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