Will e-bikes get cheaper?

[Pedrao]

Hi,
I'm excited about electric bikes after hiring one and doing a very enjoyable 25 miles on the first ride.
I've also been following the emergence of electric cars over the last five years and the big expectation with them seems to be that they are going to eventually fall significantly in price, go further on a charge and take less time to charge.

Though range is probably already more than enough on available pedelecs, could someone say what trends they have seen over the last few years in terms of price? Are pedelecs falling in price or are they expected to get much cheaper? I'm still put off by the price and the cost of battery replacement.

What's the difference between different motors? If they're all 250w then does that mean they all basically provide the same amount of assistance on hills etc? Is motor failure an issue with pedelecs and do they ever need replacement or do they far outlive the battery?

Also, has anyone worn out their first battery and bought a second? Did the first one last as long as expected? Are batteries easily damaged by fully discharging?

(Minor question - if I stop at friend's house and ask to charge my bike, how can I calculate how many kilowatt hours it uses every hour? Or e.g. does a 400 watt hour battery use 400 watt hours (0.4 kwh or about 10 pence) to fully charge?

A lot of questions! Thanks for any help.
Peter

 

[trex]

Will e-bikes get cheaper?

technology improves all the time, bikes get better but probably not cheaper.

 

[flecc]

The current trend is probably to higher prices, some already increasing by about 10%. That's true of batteries as well as complete e-bikes.

The 250 watts figure is only a nominal legal figure, in practice there's very large variation in actual powers. Most get to at least 400 watts maximum power and some can double that figure. The motor design also makes for large differences in how they perform. Some hub motors are designed for high torque ideal for hill climbing, while many direct drive motors are better for speed but lacking in climb ability. And then there's crank drive bikes which have the motor driving though the gears, bringing in all sorts of different factors.

The best answer to sorting this puzzle is to try out as many as you can to see what suits you best. Read what others say by all means, but don't place excessive reliance on other's opinions on ride qualities since we are all different and our preferences vary accordingly. Only you will know what you like.

Where we can help is with specifications, actual powers and performances and what companies and dealers are like to trade with. If you tell us your budget, your weight, your local terrain, your typical usage and daily mileages, we can help you narrow down the huge range of choices with suitable suggestions. Equally tell us of any bike that takes your fancy and we'll see how that matches your needs.
.

 

[Pedrao]

Thanks a lot Flecc. Why are prices for batteries rising if pedelec manufacture is being scaled up? Maybe early adopters are looking for performance first and foremost? It seems to be the opposite trend vs electric cars.

In terms of motors, beyond looking at the wattage, which is usually listed at 250w, what is there listed in the description of pedelec adverts that helps a buyer discern whether it's a more torquey motor or one that's more speed-oriented? Is there some kind of figure or something that describes this?

I'm definitely looking at a second hand one - I'm tall so a mountain bike style would be best. I'd like to take it on some long rides and make it my 'car' as much as possible, with paniers etc.

I've seen a two-year old Volt Pulse or some such with 1200 miles on it, on sale at two thirds of its new price, which seems about right from a cursory look at used bikes online.

Anyway, I hope the market will head in the direction of a solid new bike with a robust battery for about 600 pounds so that more people become interested (for the planet's sake!). The price of new bikes still looks so much like a used car with a fraction of the components though I know running costs are near zilch.

My two big fears are buying one and the battery inexplicably failing and having it stolen. When I hired one I parked up and went into a shop for 15 mins and was sweating most of the time at the 1300 pounds I'd lose if it was nicked! Kind of detracted from the otherwise great fun I had with it.

 

[Deleted member 4366]

You shouldn't park any bike outside a shop without locking it securely.

Nearly all electric bikes have guarantees, so if the battery fails in the first year, you get a new one. Motors go on forever (except one particular one).

If you get a Chinese manufactured bike, you can get a replacement battery for about £200, regardless of the price in the shop.

There are reasonable electric bikes from about £600. You don't have to spend a lot to get an adequate one. I'd be happy with this:

http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Brand-New-Modern-Folding-Electric-Bikes-250W-E-bike-36V10ah-Lithium-Battery-26/181521381481?_trksid=p2047675.c100005.m1851&_trkparms=aid=222007&algo=SIC.MBE&ao=2&asc=39012&meid=a13f32b180594294a8734d11ee7b6922&pid=100005&rk=3&rkt=6&mehot=pp&sd=182311273594

 

[Pedrao]

Yep, it was locked. I was worried someone might even try to steal the battery (though it was inside a tiered panier). I guess that doesn't happen since it would be hard to sell on. The bike you mention is definitely cheap - I didn't think there was anything in that range on the market. I don't necessarily need to go for the absolute cheapest. Just hard to understand how you'd get twice the bike going from a grand to two or three grand in terms of battery life and reliability.

 

[trex]

...
Just hard to understand how you'd get twice the bike going from a grand to two or three grand in terms of battery life and reliability.

Distribution costs and small scale production.
There isn't much diifference in the life expectancy of batteries or motors if they are sheltered from the elements. What happens most of the time is a £500 bike bought on ebay will probably be used as cheap transport and spend most of the time lashed to some lamp post and rained on. It'll get corroded inside and out in months, while the £3k bike will do a fraction of the mileage and regularly get cleaned and lubed.

 

[mike killay]

Have to say that my Woosh Gale cheapo folder has stood up to a lot of abuse over the past 3 years.
Battery still going strong. All mechanicals fine.
A purist would probably turn their nose up at it, but if all that you want is transport, there is no need to pay a lot.

 

[D8ve]

Battery prices have fallen and continue to fall in dollars. The pound however is stuffed so buying a 100 dollar battery used to cost £60 is now nearer £90 and could well cost over £100 soon.

 

[trex]

FYI, a good 13AH battery with Samsung cells costs about $190-$200 before duty and tax, they'll retail at about £275-£400. There isn't much difference in cost to choose between Samsung, Panasonic, Sony, Sanyo. Chinese celled 13AH costs about $160-$170.

 

[LeighPing]

hard to understand how you'd get twice the bike going from a grand to two or three grand in terms of battery life and reliability.

Don't forget to register your vote, based on your experiences Pedrao. Click here to see the voting so far.

 

[flecc]

Why are prices for batteries rising if pedelec manufacture is being scaled up? It seems to be the opposite trend vs electric cars.

Two factors. One is the constant upgrading that's still going on, the technology isn't settled. Second is the current economic situation that's increasing prices of imports. Only today we got an announcement of higher than expected inflation, and that didn't include the effects of Brexit.

E-cars have different situations, Renault-Nissan for example still using old tech laminate batteries, the weight not mattering so much in cars. We gave up those heavy batteries some while ago.

In terms of motors, beyond looking at the wattage, which is usually listed at 250w, what is there listed in the description of pedelec adverts that helps a buyer discern whether it's a more torquey motor or one that's more speed-oriented? Is there some kind of figure or something that describes this?

Nothing reliable, manufacturers play fast and loose with how they express torque figures, making comparisons of their given figures worthless. They are all limited to 15.5 mph assist by law anyway, so any derestricted capability if available isn't quoted.

My two big fears are buying one and the battery inexplicably failing

Quite a few e-bikes have two year battery warranties, especially the more expensive ones, but it's something you can check before buying.
.

 

[trex]

My two big fears are buying one and the battery inexplicably failing and having it stolen..

there isn't much you can do other than taking basic precautions. Batteries fail for many reasons, some nothing you can do about like dead BMS or a bad cell block. They tend to happen within months, well within the basic guarantee period. Some that you can do something about: use the bike frequently, make sure the battery is securely fastened before you ride off, if the bike has been rained on, dry out your bike with a towel as soon as you arrive at home and never ride on the beach, salty water / spray corrodes your electronics in days.

 

[mike killay]

and never ride on the beach, salty water / spray corrodes your electronics in days.

Except Woosh Gale.
I have ridden it many times on beaches, it looks a bit rusty but is still going strong.
I did spray the battery terminals with GT 85 (marvellous stuff if you ask me, better then WD40)

 

[Deleted member 18370]

anything getting cheaper after Brexit? ROFL.

 

[anotherkiwi]

Tell me what has gotten cheaper since 1976?

- Cars? Is the Dacia Logan really a car?
- Air fares, yep, cheaper because nobody wants to fly anymore, it isn't fun like it was.
- Mobile phones? Seen the untethered price of an iPhone 7? I can buy a real computer for that!
- ...

List goes on and on, cheaper isn't what gets shareholders higher dividends and you know that isn't right!

 

[Pedrao]

I disagree with most of that, and I've hired a Dacia Logan ... twice ;-) On the other hand, you have a point with the iPhone that I think some others are making - it's more expensive in relative terms than a Nokia 3310 when it was 'the' phone 15 years ago - because the iPhone can do so much more and people find all of that is worth paying for and maybe e-bikes are headed the same way for now.

I'm not complaining that electric bikes are a rip off. I tried a couple, loved them, but am still reluctant to buy when I see the price (though some people on the forum have shown me there are some pedelecs out there much cheaper than I thought. If I was living in one place and could do the sums in terms of savings vs other transport, I guess it would start to make sense. I'll buy one sooner or later though and I hope they really take off. They're probably going to have to become a bit more 'foolproof' though if a few rain showers are enough to seriously damage them...

 

[Deleted member 4366]

Best to buy one sooner than later. The prices will rise about 20% in the very near future.

 

[LeighPing]

They're probably going to have to become a bit more 'foolproof' though if a few rain showers are enough to seriously damage them...

If common sense precautions are used, and the electronics are appropriately protected, I don't think that they're really all that fragile. I take both of mine out in all weathers and fly through wet mire without issue. In fact, the morning dew on the grass often throws up more moisture than a rainy day.

Look at the water coming off the grass in this video @ 2 minutes in.

 

[Trevormonty]

The market is still young and has long way to go before it is saturated, so don't expect dramatic price drops. You may see Bosch prices dropping a bit, if latest eMTB reviews are anything to go by. Bosch CX set bench mark but Shimano E8000, Yamaha PWX and Brose have all caught up.