What Election Result would have been with PR

[flecc]

The BBC's "More or Less" program on Radio 4 debunks stories based on false statistics and also analyses data.

This Friday's edition tomorrow reports on the result of analysing the voting in the General Election to show who would have been leading the country with Proportional Representation. Should be interesting.

In another item they show that reports that strokes are increasing are completely false.

The program is tomorrow on BBC Radio 4 at 4.30 pm, but if you cannot listen at that time, you can listen later on the i-player on this link
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[the_killjoy]

The problem with the what would have happened if the vote had been conducted under PR overlooks the fact that the actual voting would have been different as people would have voted tactically.

 

[flecc]

The problem with the what would have happened if the vote had been conducted under PR overlooks the fact that the actual voting would have been different as people would have voted tactically.

But that depends on how many vote tactically and how many already did this time anyway. I think the proportion who will vote tactically is possibly relatively small, probably mainly among the undecided who leave their decision quite late. They are the ones making poll results inaccurate.

Anyway, I'll wait for the program to see the outcomes they found, the PR lobby does seem to have gathered strength of late.
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[trex]

under AV, tories + ukippers will form the next goverment which will be dominated by euro-skeptics. The UK will break off from the EU, the £ will drop 10% and 30% of UK citizens would have to take out BUPA or emigrate to France.

 

[selrahc1992]

under AV, tories + ukippers will form the next goverment which will be dominated by euro-skeptics. The UK will break off from the EU, the £ will drop 10% and 30% of UK citizens would have to take out BUPA or emigrate to France.

All of that seem entirely possible anyway (though I imagine the pound dropping by 30% and 50% taking out bupa while doing zero hour contracts)

 

[flecc]

under AV, tories + ukippers will form the next goverment which will be dominated by euro-skeptics. The UK will break off from the EU, the £ will drop 10% and 30% of UK citizens would have to take out BUPA or emigrate to France.

But AV is not proportional representation and I hope the program will stick to it's brief with the latter only.
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[flecc]

The Proportional Representation item is at roughly 18 minutes in for those not interested in the other content.

The result differences with PR were dramatic. They also gave some outcomes using other systems of voting.

Here's the link again, it will be a short while before it's available on the i-player.
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[jonathan75]

under AV, tories + ukippers will form the next goverment which will be dominated by euro-skeptics. The UK will break off from the EU, the £ will drop 10% and 30% of UK citizens would have to take out BUPA or emigrate to France.

Haha that's a good nightmare scenario - but I think the Tories would sooner do a German style grand coalition than join with the Kippers - who are just a protest movement against reality anyway.

 

[SteveRuss]

Proportional Representation is the only form of voting this country should have.

I could vote the Monster Raving Looney Party in my area for the rest of my life and it would count for nothing as it's a labour stronghold and that doesn't look to change without some sort of Shirely Porter style gerrymandering. If I wanted to vote to the right, I would have to move areas to have my vote heard.

Yes, sometimes areas do change colour but not that often. If i'm being governed by a one party system then I want to be able to connect directly with that system. Not for a local representative of a party that may only come here once or twice a year. That's just crazy to me.

 

[trex]

then your local MP won't be local anymore.

 

[SteveRuss]

then your local MP won't be local anymore.

Fine. When I was living in the south of London, our MP lived up north somewhere. As far as I know there's no legislation to say that your local MP has to live in the vicinity.

 

[flecc]

then your local MP won't be local anymore.

I don't care about that, their job is to run the country, running local affairs is for the councillors I help to elect.
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[selrahc1992]

I don't care about that, their job is to run the country, running local affairs is for the councillors I help to elect.
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More than that,under a Westminster system some central "party office" decides which most succesful sychophant deserves a safe seat. Not exactly local representation.

 

[tillson]

I could vote the Monster Raving Looney Party in my area for the rest of my life and it would count for nothing as it's a labour stronghold and that doesn't look to change without some sort of Shirely Porter style gerrymandering. If I wanted to vote to the right, I would have to move areas to have my vote heard.

I think Labour's days are over in the medium term. I certainly don't think that they will be elected at the next general election unless they have a total overhaul of policy and shadow ministers. They should be representing most of us who use this forum (those who go out and earn a wage or those who have worked and are now enjoying a well earned pension). Unfortunately, over the last 20 years, Labour have completely lost touch with this section of voters and no longer represent their interests in any way.

I can't see the current crop of hopefuls who are chasing the leadership putting Labour on the right course. The £13,000 per school year, privately educated Chumbawamba has been rumbled and now withdrawn from the contest, but I can't see any of the other inadequates doing the same. That's the trouble with Labour, it has many members from highly priviaged backgrounds who have benefitted from the institutions which they now seek to eradicate in an orgy of idealism. It's simply rank hypocrisy. Theses people have sufficient finances and connections to insulate themselves from the consequences of their actions when they inevitably go wrong, but it's the average worker who is hit the hardest and pays the price of clearing up their mess.

 

[vidtek]

We have proportional representation AND compulsory voting with all elections being held on the week-end in Australia. Even there they have 3 tiers of government, local councils, State governments and the Federal government.
There has been a move to abolish the states which has been vigorously opposed by the Liberals (the Aussie version of the Tories-nothing liberal about them since Malcolm Fraser). There are always 2 ballot papers, white for the House of Reps. and a massive green one for the Senate. Usually the reps have about 5 or 6 choices, not too hard for the colonials to manage, although it's strange how the top position usually has a massive amount more than the bottom one, no matter who the candidate or party is. No reflection on the average Aussie's IQ of course.
The green senate paper has 2 choices, put 1 cross where you like above a black line where there are 4 or 5 choices and let that party/person distribute preferences, or for the thinking Aussie (not too many of them) number from 1 to anything up to 100 to distribute your own preferences.
It is definitely a fairer and more equitable system, and with computerised voting an inevitability will make more sense for us in the UK. We still ended up with Abbott and before him the Gillard creature-they say you get the govt. you deserve though.
I still don't understand why we have national, county council and local councils here in the UK, surely the county councils can now do the job of all local councils, or if that's a step too far, do away with the county councils instead, we really don't need 3 tiers of government here.
Sorry for the ramble folks, didn't mean to go on so......
Tony

 

[flecc]

That's the trouble with Labour, it has many members from highly priviaged backgrounds who have benefitted from the institutions which they now seek to eradicate in an orgy of idealism. It's simply rank hypocrisy. Theses people have sufficient finances and connections to insulate themselves from the consequences of their actions when they inevitably go wrong, but it's the average worker who is hit the hardest and pays the price of clearing up their mess.

The Tony Benn syndrome! Born Anthony Neil Wedgewood Benn and inheriting the title Viscount Stansgate, he renounced the title to continue as an MP named Tony Benn, professing only to support the working man. But as genuine as he undoubtedly was, it never worked since he clearly didn't have the necessary in-depth understanding to achieve anything worthwhile.
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[mike killay]

Flecc, I think that you have hit the nail on the head.
Many voters vote with their hearts not their minds.
That Gillian the Bigot woman for instance who was insulted by Gordon Brown.
Expensively educated, top of the pile people can never understand or instinctively feel as the man in the street.
Also, I don't buy this altruistic, publically, socialist minded façade they display anyway. Politicians are people with well developed senses of their own self importance, incredible ambition and utter ruthlessness.
Because the SNP have probably permanently captured the Scottish socialist vote, Labour are likely to be in terminal decline.
Just watch the next crop of Oxbridge PPE wasters discover that they are incredibly committed Conservatives, Greens, Ukippers etc, in fact anywhere they think power will lie

 

[selrahc1992]

I think Labour's days are over in the medium term. I certainly don't think that they will be elected at the next general election unless they have a total overhaul of policy and shadow ministers. They should be representing most of us who use this forum (those who go out and earn a wage or those who have worked and are now enjoying a well earned pension). Unfortunately, over the last 20 years, Labour have completely lost touch with this section of voters and no longer represent their interests in any way.

I can't see the current crop of hopefuls who are chasing the leadership putting Labour on the right course. The £13,000 per school year, privately educated Chumbawamba has been rumbled and now withdrawn from the contest, but I can't see any of the other inadequates doing the same. That's the trouble with Labour, it has many members from highly priviaged backgrounds who have benefitted from the institutions which they now seek to eradicate in an orgy of idealism. It's simply rank hypocrisy. Theses people have sufficient finances and connections to insulate themselves from the consequences of their actions when they inevitably go wrong, but it's the average worker who is hit the hardest and pays the price of clearing up their mess.

in principal i agree, felt despairing when seeing lineup of professional politicians polishing soundbites and posture to lead labour. i cant really belief there's any voter naive enough to buy any of that self serving crap. len mc cluskey said something like this - that its this patent insincerity that cost labour election. but there's a snag - i suspect most of us here on forum arent just workers/retired workers -were also home owners, owners of shares, even overseas properties - were all alot more bourgeoisie than we think. i voted labour,but part of me cringed as i did and wondered whether it would make the pound loose value and interest rates go up.

 

[flecc]

i suspect most of us here on forum arent just workers/retired workers -were also home owners, owners of shares, even overseas properties - were all alot more bourgeoisie than we think.

And that is Labour's problem, it's no use returning to the old socialist policies as some seem to think is the answer, since there are very few traditional workers left to vote for that. Manufacturing only 8% of the economy for example, and much of their staff non-militant and barely socialist.

I don't think Labour will necessarily die out since it could take over the middle liberal ground now the lib-dems have fallen from favour. One or the other needs to go since they need the same political space. Either way, we seem to be heading for the US style situation of centre and right wing parties but no true left wing in UK politics.
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[anotherkiwi]

under AV, tories + ukippers will form the next goverment which will be dominated by euro-skeptics. The UK will break off from the EU, the £ will drop 10% and 30% of UK citizens would have to take out BUPA or emigrate to France.

First the French would have to vote on whether to let you in or not as you would no longer be European... In fact I'm not sure that you are Europeans even now anyway...