What if the seller got their Wisper 905 Eco from a Cycle2Work deal? It can easily work out as a 40% discount. That drops the original price from £940 down to less than £600 before any devaluation?
Selling and Buying Second-hand e-bikes
- Thread starter flecc
- Start date
It makes no difference, the original price is still £940 and the discounted price is a benefit for the recipient of the deal, not transferable to someone not participating in the scheme.
Once again this is special case minutiae and nothing to do with a valuation system. Similar discounting is available for some cars in certain circumstances, but the trade book prices don't deal in such issues, nor is the trade or any buyer for that matter interested. It's the value of a second hand item that counts, not any special deal that someone may or may not have received previously.
.
Excellent thread! Once again thanks Flecc for excellent analysis, and very insightful explaination!
Since battery cost would make a huge difference, I also have this scenario regarding its remaining life:
Case A:
Travels: 30-50 miles per day
Battery Charged: 5-6 times per week
After 1 year: 52 weeks * 5 charges ~ 250 charges in a year
Case B:
Travels: 8-10 miles per day
Battery Charged: 1-2 times per week
After 1 year: 52 weeks * 2 charges ~ 100 charges in a year
Question:
When you sell the bike after 1 year, would you consider the above two cases same?
In my opinion, battery cycles left + miles travelled also should be factored in, because they can make a big difference (e.g. ~ 100-150 GBP for Wisper batteries costing 500 GBP, in above 2 cases)
I know if we include battery cycles/miles in cost, we have following disadvantages:
- Too much complication
- Miles can be self reported
- Terrain of travel, etc
Hence what I think is that the quotes given by Flecc should be taken as average price, and seller can quote a bit higher (lower ??
) if he wishes according to the formula.
Am I missing something??
Case A:
Travels: 30-50 miles per day
Battery Charged: 5-6 times per week
After 1 year: 52 weeks * 5 charges ~ 250 charges in a year
Case B:
Travels: 8-10 miles per day
Battery Charged: 1-2 times per week
After 1 year: 52 weeks * 2 charges ~ 100 charges in a year
Question:
When you sell the bike after 1 year, would you consider the above two cases same?
In my opinion, battery cycles left + miles travelled also should be factored in, because they can make a big difference (e.g. ~ 100-150 GBP for Wisper batteries costing 500 GBP, in above 2 cases)
I know if we include battery cycles/miles in cost, we have following disadvantages:
- Too much complication
- Miles can be self reported
- Terrain of travel, etc
Hence what I think is that the quotes given by Flecc should be taken as average price, and seller can quote a bit higher (lower ??
) if he wishes according to the formula.Am I missing something??
That's exactly it hardrock15, deal with the side issues as adjustments to the formula where the buyer accepts the sellers description.
However, it's important not to forget selling circumstances. The seller might know that a battery has only had 100 charges in the one year of life before selling, but the buyer doesn't know that and the seller can't prove it, so that intrinsic loss for the seller really has to be written off to experience to some extent. The moral is that the seller shouldn't choose such an inopportune time to sell, so they only have themselves to blame really. As a light user they would get the best value and return by using the whole of the battery life and then selling the bike X years later when the battery has finally expired.
Their situation isn't particularly unfair when compared to car ownership, just look at the huge loss someone experiences when they buy a new car and sell at only one year old, thousands and often many thousands of pounds of loss involved, a huge proportion of what they originally paid out. Again it's their fault for selling at such an early point.
.
However, it's important not to forget selling circumstances. The seller might know that a battery has only had 100 charges in the one year of life before selling, but the buyer doesn't know that and the seller can't prove it, so that intrinsic loss for the seller really has to be written off to experience to some extent. The moral is that the seller shouldn't choose such an inopportune time to sell, so they only have themselves to blame really. As a light user they would get the best value and return by using the whole of the battery life and then selling the bike X years later when the battery has finally expired.
Their situation isn't particularly unfair when compared to car ownership, just look at the huge loss someone experiences when they buy a new car and sell at only one year old, thousands and often many thousands of pounds of loss involved, a huge proportion of what they originally paid out. Again it's their fault for selling at such an early point.
.
Interesting topic, but danger is that these things can be likened to a fundamental refering to the
BIBLE.... As they used to call the ...........
Glasses guide in the motor trade, which would be used to value the car on condition and mileage, bearing in mind that magic word.... GUIDE
BIBLE.... As they used to call the ...........
Glasses guide in the motor trade, which would be used to value the car on condition and mileage, bearing in mind that magic word.... GUIDE
Interesting thread this - not seen it before. Just to throw in some other considerations on batteries - the charge cycle lives differ enormously.
For example, many are 'OK''d to 500 charge cycles whereas others (like Kalkhoff ones) are 1000 cycles and whilst natural ageing does play a part "long life" batteries ought to hold their value longer than 2 years. Also I am extremely skeptical of any claims a seller makes to me about use of a bike. unless it can be proven. There is little way to prove them right or wrong.
However, you can get a guide from a permanent mileometer which can only be reset by resetting the whole system as on a car (in which cases it's likely to be suspiciously low for the age). Kalkhoff is the only manufacturer I've come across to fit one of these but their may be others. I can accurately see every 0.1 mile travelled on my bike since original purchase. I think this is helpful for buyers to see the useage both bike and battery have had (latter by inference although terrain of use would have some effect on likely charge cycles).
So agreed - magic word is guide ... and then adjust for variables accordingly.
For example, many are 'OK''d to 500 charge cycles whereas others (like Kalkhoff ones) are 1000 cycles and whilst natural ageing does play a part "long life" batteries ought to hold their value longer than 2 years. Also I am extremely skeptical of any claims a seller makes to me about use of a bike. unless it can be proven. There is little way to prove them right or wrong.
However, you can get a guide from a permanent mileometer which can only be reset by resetting the whole system as on a car (in which cases it's likely to be suspiciously low for the age). Kalkhoff is the only manufacturer I've come across to fit one of these but their may be others. I can accurately see every 0.1 mile travelled on my bike since original purchase. I think this is helpful for buyers to see the useage both bike and battery have had (latter by inference although terrain of use would have some effect on likely charge cycles).
So agreed - magic word is guide ... and then adjust for variables accordingly.
proposed formula for second hand value:
Assuming column A holds the purchase price, B the purchase date, try this formula in column C:
(the formula below is for cell C3)
=1000 * 0.7^( (NOW()-$B3)/365) + ($A3-1000) * 0.65 ^( (NOW()-$B3)/365)
Example 1: Premium brand bike
Example 2: commodity bike:
The constants:
average bike price as a transport: £1000.
0.7: depreciation rate for the commodity element, 0.65: depreciation rate for the premium element.
Assuming column A holds the purchase price, B the purchase date, try this formula in column C:
(the formula below is for cell C3)
=1000 * 0.7^( (NOW()-$B3)/365) + ($A3-1000) * 0.65 ^( (NOW()-$B3)/365)
Example 1: Premium brand bike
| today is | 17/10/2013 | |
| purchase price | purchase date | second hand value |
| 2700 | 17-Oct-13 | 2698 |
| 2700 | 17-Oct-12 | 1804 |
| 2700 | 17-Oct-11 | 1206 |
| 2700 | 17-Oct-10 | 808 |
| 2700 | 17-Oct-09 | 543 |
| 2700 | 17-Oct-08 | 365 |
| 2700 | 17-Oct-07 | 245 |
| 2700 | 17-Oct-06 | 165 |
| 2700 | 17-Oct-05 | 112 |
| 2700 | 17-Oct-04 | 75 |
Example 2: commodity bike:
| today is | 17/10/2013 | |
| purchase price | purchase date | second hand value |
| 800 | 17-Oct-13 | 800 |
| 800 | 17-Oct-12 | 570 |
| 800 | 17-Oct-11 | 405 |
| 800 | 17-Oct-10 | 288 |
| 800 | 17-Oct-09 | 204 |
| 800 | 17-Oct-08 | 145 |
| 800 | 17-Oct-07 | 102 |
| 800 | 17-Oct-06 | 72 |
| 800 | 17-Oct-05 | 51 |
| 800 | 17-Oct-04 | 36 |
The constants:
average bike price as a transport: £1000.
0.7: depreciation rate for the commodity element, 0.65: depreciation rate for the premium element.
Last edited:
But this returns the problem of the battery, since they have much less life than the bike, meaning the annual decline in value has no linearity. In this respect e-bikes are unlike almost all other consumer items and very different from other vehicles. The point of my formula was to deal with this anomaly by separating the two elements. The battery fraction can easily be adjusted to the battery type and life expectation.
Someone who had just bought a new £500 battery at year three would not be very happy with your method, and the value of his bike would be very different from one still with it's three year old battery on it's last legs.
.
Last edited:
I did think hard about this battery issue and could add a third term for the battery.
However, on reflection, most premium bikes come with good batteries (eg built by BMZ) which will last for 5 years, so the formula comes close to giving it a realistic value.
On the other end of the spectrum, Chinese built bikes are so cheap, they won't attract much attention after 2 years. The residual value of the battery is not really distinguishable from the rest of the bike.
eg Tesco Hopper:
| today is | 17/10/2013 | |
| purchase price | purchase date | second hand value |
| 400 | 17-Oct-13 | 400 |
| 400 | 17-Oct-12 | 310 |
| 400 | 17-Oct-11 | 236 |
| 400 | 17-Oct-10 | 178 |
| 400 | 17-Oct-09 | 133 |
| 400 | 17-Oct-08 | 98 |
| 400 | 17-Oct-07 | 72 |
| 400 | 17-Oct-06 | 53 |
| 400 | 17-Oct-05 | 38 |
| 400 | 17-Oct-04 | 28 |
Last edited:
I like what you have done here but flecc is right, you must to separate the battery from the bike devaluation formula. My Panasonic battery has lasted 5 years and is still in good shape, but the warranty is only two years and if I was a buyer I would make the assumption that I would need to replace it once it had gone beyond the warranty period, hence no residual value aged 2 years or over.
It shouldn't be difficult to build the battery factor into your equation with the value being based on a ratio of age to warranty period.
And I'd add that thinking in terms of five years on quality e-bikes is far too optimistic. No-one has had a BMZ battery for five years and to date the only lithium battery showing that has been some fully Panasonic manufactured ones. Just having Panasonic cells is not at all the same thing. Also the long battery life has only been on the crank units with their lower powers, I'm prepared to bet cash that the powerful hub motor bikes won't have anything like that battery life due to the higher current drain rate.
Also dismissing the Chinese bikes under the cheap heading is a mistake, near £2000 worth of Wisper, Oxygen or eZee is not cheap, it's high end, and two to three years battery life is quite normal for them, especially on the more powerful versions.
There's also the long commute user to bear in mind. They can and often do charge twice a day, near 500 charges per annum for a normal working week, so their batteries even if high end with 1100 charge prognosis will only have a just over two year life at best.
Also dismissing the Chinese bikes under the cheap heading is a mistake, near £2000 worth of Wisper, Oxygen or eZee is not cheap, it's high end, and two to three years battery life is quite normal for them, especially on the more powerful versions.
There's also the long commute user to bear in mind. They can and often do charge twice a day, near 500 charges per annum for a normal working week, so their batteries even if high end with 1100 charge prognosis will only have a just over two year life at best.
Adding a term for expensive batteries (with 2 years guarantee):
cell C3 (simple method):
=1000 * 0.7^( (NOW()-$B3)/365) + ($A3-1000) * 0.65 ^( (NOW()-$B3)/365)
cell F3 (method 2, a term for replacement battery added with 2 year warranty):
=700 * 0.7^( (NOW()-$B3)/365) + ($A3-700-$D3) * 0.68 ^( (NOW()-$B3)/365)+ $D3 * 0.45 ^( (NOW()-$E3)/365)
cell G3 (battery on its own for reference):
=$D3 * 0.45 ^( (NOW()-$E3)/365)
With method 2, you can change the date if the battery is replaced during the life time of the bike.
cell C3 (simple method):
=1000 * 0.7^( (NOW()-$B3)/365) + ($A3-1000) * 0.65 ^( (NOW()-$B3)/365)
cell F3 (method 2, a term for replacement battery added with 2 year warranty):
=700 * 0.7^( (NOW()-$B3)/365) + ($A3-700-$D3) * 0.68 ^( (NOW()-$B3)/365)+ $D3 * 0.45 ^( (NOW()-$E3)/365)
cell G3 (battery on its own for reference):
=$D3 * 0.45 ^( (NOW()-$E3)/365)
| today is | 17/10/2013 | method 2 | for reference | |||
| purchase price | purchase date | second hand value | battery cost | batt purchase date | second hand value | second hand battery |
| 2700 | 17-Oct-13 | 2697 | 550 | 17-Oct-13 | 2697 | 549 |
| 2700 | 17-Oct-12 | 1803 | 550 | 17-Oct-12 | 1722 | 247 |
| 2700 | 17-Oct-11 | 1206 | 550 | 17-Oct-11 | 1122 | 111 |
| 2700 | 17-Oct-10 | 808 | 550 | 17-Oct-10 | 745 | 50 |
| 2700 | 17-Oct-09 | 542 | 550 | 17-Oct-09 | 500 | 22 |
| 2700 | 17-Oct-08 | 365 | 550 | 17-Oct-08 | 338 | 10 |
| 2700 | 17-Oct-07 | 245 | 550 | 17-Oct-07 | 230 | 5 |
| 2700 | 17-Oct-06 | 165 | 550 | 17-Oct-06 | 157 | 2 |
| 2700 | 17-Oct-05 | 111 | 550 | 17-Oct-05 | 107 | 1 |
| 2700 | 17-Oct-04 | 75 | 550 | 17-Oct-04 | 74 | 0 |
With method 2, you can change the date if the battery is replaced during the life time of the bike.
Last edited:
I agree with flecc's point above on battery amortization assumptions on heavily used commuter bikes - similar to fleet cars in a way, they get hammered and battery will exhaust much faster. This is something which is pretty easy to determine from a lifetime mileage check (on bikes which have this at least) or a battery cycles used check via dealer/distributor device if that's feasible and it matters a lot to a buyer to prove it.
What I am less convinced about is very pessimistic natural battery ageing assumptions on lightly used batteries. Time will tell on newer Bosch/BMZ batteries but buyers can be over-pessimistic on things like this trying to price in a worst case scenario on every aspect of a purchase. The likelihood is a battery with decent cells and even '50 (charging) cycles' used that has been kept and charged indoors over say 18 months for example is not likely to be conking out for a fair few thousand miles. For example after 1 year I've seen no noticeable decrease in capacity on a lightly used BMZ battery conditioned at the start, kept topped-up, never run down to flat after conditioning and stored appropriately.
Number of cycles used is relatively easy to proxy from a bike's mileage if you can't verify it from the BMS logs. Perhaps how batteries are looked after is a more important consideration regarding their likely life as their calendar age up to a certain point and especially so in the first half of their total usage life ? This is hard to substantiate for any seller (or buyer) so I guess the best indication you have is a seller who demonstrates an awareness of how to look after a battery on enquiry. It doesn't prove they did (nothing can) but it's a pretty good sign at least !
What I am less convinced about is very pessimistic natural battery ageing assumptions on lightly used batteries. Time will tell on newer Bosch/BMZ batteries but buyers can be over-pessimistic on things like this trying to price in a worst case scenario on every aspect of a purchase. The likelihood is a battery with decent cells and even '50 (charging) cycles' used that has been kept and charged indoors over say 18 months for example is not likely to be conking out for a fair few thousand miles. For example after 1 year I've seen no noticeable decrease in capacity on a lightly used BMZ battery conditioned at the start, kept topped-up, never run down to flat after conditioning and stored appropriately.
Number of cycles used is relatively easy to proxy from a bike's mileage if you can't verify it from the BMS logs. Perhaps how batteries are looked after is a more important consideration regarding their likely life as their calendar age up to a certain point and especially so in the first half of their total usage life ? This is hard to substantiate for any seller (or buyer) so I guess the best indication you have is a seller who demonstrates an awareness of how to look after a battery on enquiry. It doesn't prove they did (nothing can) but it's a pretty good sign at least !
Last edited:
The problem with buying a second hand electric bike is that they all have, light useage, low mileage and batteries in excellent condition.
It's very difficult for the buyer to accurately verify any of this. What's light useage? How do you tell? The average buyer isn't going to know. The same with mileage. You can't rely on one of those clip on speedo things, they can be set to read whatever you like. Batteries are even more difficult. I can make my 5 year old 15000 mile Panasonic battery display 5 out of 5 capacity lights by doing a full conditioning cycle, and it's just not practical to ride a potential purchase the full range of the battery to test its capacity properly. In fact, if I so desired I could present my 5 year old 15000 mile Pro Connect in near new condition with a battery showing full capacity and describe it as lightly used, low mileage and battery in excellent condition and showing no signs of deterioration.
Unfortunately, there are plenty of people only too willing twist the truth to their advantage when selling and it's very difficult to filter out the honest people. For that reason, I think that a buyer would be unwise to deviate too far away from the price guides in this thread when buying second hand.
It's very difficult for the buyer to accurately verify any of this. What's light useage? How do you tell? The average buyer isn't going to know. The same with mileage. You can't rely on one of those clip on speedo things, they can be set to read whatever you like. Batteries are even more difficult. I can make my 5 year old 15000 mile Panasonic battery display 5 out of 5 capacity lights by doing a full conditioning cycle, and it's just not practical to ride a potential purchase the full range of the battery to test its capacity properly. In fact, if I so desired I could present my 5 year old 15000 mile Pro Connect in near new condition with a battery showing full capacity and describe it as lightly used, low mileage and battery in excellent condition and showing no signs of deterioration.
Unfortunately, there are plenty of people only too willing twist the truth to their advantage when selling and it's very difficult to filter out the honest people. For that reason, I think that a buyer would be unwise to deviate too far away from the price guides in this thread when buying second hand.
Last edited:
You've highlighted the problem Alex. You know how to look after a lightly used battery, but most consumers don't as we so often see in here with posts about batteries failed after being left idle and unchecked for many months.
With second hand batteries the worst scenario should always be assumed when buying, assuming the best is a bit like believing the stock investment that could pay 10% p/a interest will definitely do so.
Related Articles
-
MTF Enterprises announces acquisition of EMU Electric Bikes- Started by: Pedelecs
-
Wisper 806T folding bike wins Which? ‘Best Buy’- Started by: Pedelecs
-
Sustrans calls for protected cycle lanes- Started by: Pedelecs
-
Amazon launch their first UK e-cargo micromobility hub- Started by: Pedelecs
