Raleigh are increasing prices by 10% as from August 1.

[Wisper Bikes]

Sorry to say Trex but it's already below 1.32.

All the best, David

 

[trex]

you may have to factor in about 2c due to the market betting that the BoE is going to cut rates on Thursday, August 04. I reckon the BoE is going to leave rates on hold but even if rates cut, the Pound will recover when brexit plan is finalized before March next year. There is an issue of paying for 2017 stock in January, if brexit plan is not finalized, stock is paid at the worst possible moment in the cycle.

 

[Crockers]

The pound has crashed on fear if the uncertainty of the future with use leaving the EU.
If that does become a reality- and it's not 100% guaranteed my personal view is the £ will plummet. Bear in mind it wasn't that long ago that the £ was on parity to the €.
If the BofE cuts rates any further or exercises QE that will affect the £ further. We are practically into negative rates, something none of us has ever experienced.
We talk about the Japanese lost decade. It's now almost a lost generation.

I still can't believe the stupidity of even allows referendum but that's in the past. Consumer confidence is at an all time low so I can't imagine that any retailer or distributer would even consider a price rise unless driven into it.
Trouble is, if we're not careful, we could plummet into another recession. The first ever that we have fabricated by our own stupidity.

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

woosh will put up their prices on the 1st of August too. £35 to £45 per bike, roughly 5%. I think Woosh may have to put up their prices again next March if the Pound drops below $1.32.

yup, bad news Trex... its was at 1.3192 for us from our broker yesterday.

They also sent us this warning yesterday..

"Data compiled by Bloomberg suggests a 100% probability that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut its key interest rate next Thursday, 4th August.

If the BoE does cut rates, this is likely to cause sterling to weaken against currencies including the euro and US dollar."

So it looks like its going to get worse for UK imports.

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

Should add it was at 1.3192 before we got the notification about the rate cut.

I've just checked and now the rate cut has impacted on things. Its down to:

1.30331738

So I suspect it'll be under 1.3 by the end of today.

 

[trex]

at this rate of decline, the £ is going to be on parity with the Euro by the end of the year.
I wonder how long Mrs May is going to play chickens with the EU. They hold all the good cards at the moment.

 

[Kudoscycles]

These threads seem to be largely Remain voters.
But anyone who voted leave.
Do they regret voting leave?
Would they vote remain now?
If they are happy voting leave,are they happy with Brexit so far?
What do they expect to be achieved by Brexit?
KudosDave

 

[trex]

...
What do they expect to be achieved by Brexit?
KudosDave

what does not kill us will make us stronger.

 

[Kudoscycles]

at this rate of decline, the £ is going to be on parity with the Euro by the end of the year.
I wonder how long Mrs May is going to play chickens with the EU. They hold all the good cards at the moment.

Except there is a feeling now in Germany that their open door policy to migrants is causing problems and many Germans are questioning unlimited migration into Germany.
In some respects the migrants into Germany are more of a problem than those coming into the UK. Most in the UK are employed whereas many in Germany are in hostels with no work,that is a recipe for radicalisation problems.
Why can't we get together with our EU neighbours and come up with a formula for restricting immigration both within the EU and from non EU. Why do we have to break from the EU to achieve common sense.
The problem with unlimited free movement is that migrants will always be attracted to the country with the best prospects and that country will overfill relative to the others.
I don't care what anyone says most people voted Brexit to stop immigrants,the remain vote would have won easily if Cameron had come back with a deal on migration.
Maybe Merkel and May will crack a deal to overcome this stupid and blinkered Brexit,which is causing economic problems that will get worse.
If you lose your job because you voted Brexit,you only have yourself to blame.
KudosDave

 

[trex]

Germany has a big problem with recruiting people to work in boring factory jobs that most white Germans don't want to do, like working in a chicken slaughterhouse. Imagine you have to stand up and chop up a few thousand chickens a day in 5 degrees centigrade. Refugees will more or less accept any job going.

 

[Kudoscycles]

at this rate of decline, the £ is going to be on parity with the Euro by the end of the year.
I wonder how long Mrs May is going to play chickens with the EU. They hold all the good cards at the moment.

I cannot be that pessimistic,that would mean ebikes going up by 20-30 % in the UK,that would be the death of the ebike industry in the UK.
The bike world is not good at the moment,these price rises are not good news.
KudosDave

 

[Kudoscycles]

Germany has a big problem with recruiting people to work in boring factory jobs that most white Germans don't want to do, like working in a chicken slaughterhouse. Imagine you have to stand up and chop up a few thousand chickens a day in 5 degrees centigrade. Refugees will more or less accept any job going.

Germany accepted many Turkish immigrants to work mainly in the auto industry,
KudosDave

 

[Wisper Bikes]

It's not only Germany that have a problem with labour. I am trying to find a full time accounts person and more importantly a mechanic. I would take anyone from a completely green apprentice to a fully experienced electric bicycle engineer. There is simply no one available. It seems the only way I can find anyone to fill this post is to bring someone in from Rumania! The end of free movement of labour would be a complete disaster.

I have advertised in Bike Biz, the local Job Centres (that was tricky) and even started a post on Pedlecs. I have had one response.... from Switzerland!

Fortunatley Claud my tech manager has a freind who is considering coming to the UK to work for us.

 

[flecc]

Germany has a big problem with recruiting people to work in boring factory jobs that most white Germans don't want to do, like working in a chicken slaughterhouse. Imagine you have to stand up and chop up a few thousand chickens a day in 5 degrees centigrade. Refugees will more or less accept any job going.

Germany is a remarkably old fashioned country in certain respects. Married German women generally don't go out to work, especially if they have children, so they have an intrinsically greater need for immigrants to fill that hole. The dominance of males on even the lightest of production lines in Germany is very noticeable. Seeing production lines in Staedtler Pencils with only rows of German men watching the streams of pencils passing along is remarkable to our eyes, since here that function would certainly be dominated by women.
.

 

[trex]

I cannot be that pessimistic,that would mean ebikes going up by 20-30 % in the UK,that would be the death of the ebike industry in the UK.
The bike world is not good at the moment,these price rises are not good news.
KudosDave

I must say that scenario is not impossible. I reckon 10% price rise equals 10% lower sales. 20% price rise equals 30% lower sales. 30% price rise equals the death of the industry.
Brexit is the triumph of vanity over common sense.

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

I must say that scenario is not impossible. I reckon 10% price rise equals 10% lower sales. 20% price rise equals 30% lower sales. 30% price rise equals the death of the industry.
Brexit is the triumph of vanity over common sense.

I'm not sure it works like that... the main problem will be that if eBikes are going up by a big jump, they won't be the only thing in the retail market that is experiencing this. Everything will go up, expect wages, so people will have less to spend.

But this could mean sales of eBikes actually go up, because more people look to save money on their transport costs. However yes, people might spend 20% less on their ebike, or might not go as fancy as they would, but I don't think price rises will kill the industry.

 

[trex]

you are somewhat shielded from the worst effect of brexit in your segment of the market, your customers are among the well to do with large disposable income. Importers of Chinese bikes don't fare so well. Some of their customers will compare the cost of public transport to the benefit of own transport while others are still on a tight budget or stuck with the ridiculous £1,000 C2W schemes.

 

[Wisper Bikes]

I agree Col, we have considered the impact and feel we could well see an increase in commuter style bikes sales. Any growth will probably be in the sub £1000 C2W class of bike.

Sorry Trex crossed posts, hopefully all segments will continue to grow!

 

[trex]

I have been told this week to create a 20" folding bike for the sensitive retail price of £699. Even at the lowest possible multiplicator of 1.5 based on $1.35, that leaves me with a budget of $466 per bike - if the Pound drops below that level in the new year, the whole spring season for woosh will be severely disrupted. That's just an example.

 

[Crockers]

Perhaps you guys ought to sell your bikes on the continent. A weak pound should stimulate exports....or so the powers to be state. Great if we didn't need to import the parts to assemble here.