Article on Farage's claim that NATO and the EU provoked Putin.
Written by Ross Clark in the Spectator Magazine
Written by Ross Clark in the Spectator Magazine
Nigel Farage enjoyed a combative exchange with Nick Robinson in his BBC Panorama interview this evening, and acquitted himself well on many issues. True, the tax cuts and spending rises in his manifesto don’t add up – they rely on a rather over-hopeful expectation of the economy, as indeed do Labour’s. But then Farage is honest that he is not really selling us a programme for government, only giving an indication of the issues on which Reform UK will be pressing if succeeds in gaining a Commons presence. Therefore, his party can get away with some loose budgeting.
But at the same time Farage made his first big error – and one that could cost him dearly among many of his potential voters. He doubled down on previous remarks claiming that the West ‘provoked’ Vladimir Putin into invading Ukraine – provoked him, that is, by allowing the eastwards expansion of Nato and the EU.
It is a theory with which Farage’s friend, Donald Trump, is known to be in sympathy. But such is the apathy towards Europe on the part of many US voters that Trump might get away with it. It is a very different business when you are trying to appeal to the centre-right in Britain.
To accuse the West of provoking Putin into invading Ukraine is, frankly, outrageous. Putin tried to help himself to Ukraine not because the West was rattling sabres at him but because it was too weak. For years, the eastwards expansion of Nato was more symbolic than a genuine attempt to extend the umbrella that had protected western Europe during the cold war; it included only token deployments of weapons and personnel, and certainly no nuclear weapons as lay on the other side of the Russian border. Putin started testing western defences, and only when he was convinced the West was not going to defend Ukraine did he annex Crimea. Even then the western defence was feeble, both militarily and economically. It is remarkable to think now that the deal for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline was signed after the Crimean invasion. Europe was still at that point prepared to make itself reliant on Russian gas in spite of Russia having committed an act of war against a neighbouring country.
But even if Putin did feel threatened at any point by the symbolic eastward expansion of Nato or the EU, is Farage really trying to say that sovereign states of Eastern Europe do not have the right to decide which alliances they wish to join? You might as well say that Ireland has provoked the UK by remaining a member of the EU, and that therefore it would be entitled to invade its neighbour.
Farage has had a good campaign so far, but this is not going to encourage many erstwhile Conservative voters that he is a serious candidate to be Prime Minister – even if he could use the result of this election to manoeuvre himself into future contention.