Oil Price Drop

[awol]

I've been reading over the weekend about how the price of oil over the past year has dropped to multi year lows due to less demand etc. This is over the same past year I started ecycling to work, which got me thinking, crikey did I previously really spend that much on fuel, in fact so much I was proping the price of oil up?
and now I decide to ebike I am not spending enough on fuel and thus oil price plunges.
So the price drop could ultimately be a good thing but with it could bring problems down the line, i.e I am thinking if deisel drops to a low cost per litre could it be cost effective to drive to work in the already taxed/insured car?
I now wonder whether if fuel stays low what knock on affects it could have i.e to the ecar and ebike market as a whole as people give up the electric idea which may also bring the costs of lithium batteries down but may also reduce any research into new battery technology going forward.
Any other possible knock-on affects?

 

[Wicky]

From my understanding also it is Saudi & UAE Opec wanting to break the US and Russian oil producers - might take a couple of years then they can push the price back up to whatever they want. As a consequence I agree it will partly act as a disincentive to hop on two wheels or other alternatives, however if a lot of folk drive about more, the already congested roads will clog up even more - so two wheels still make more sense.

As an owner of a fuel gazzling Honda Firestorm I'm glad of the reprive even if only temporary in the cost of filling the tank up but I haven't stopped day-to-day getting about on the KTM.

 

[flecc]

From my understanding also it is Saudi & UAE Opec wanting to break the US and Russian oil producers

And of course the Americans are actually politically happy about this, since it has the by-product of hurting Russia's economy at a time when that is an objective.

That too will probably influence the timing of the turn round point when oil prices start to rise again.

As for the influence on e-car sales, I think they are a busted flush anyway. Their inordinately high cost and the option of hybrids for the environmentally inclined means they really have no wide market and are relegated to the status of toys for the wealthy.
.

 

[Croxden]

As for the influence on e-car sales, I think they are a busted flush anyway. Their inordinately high cost and the option of hybrids for the environmentally inclined means they really have no wide market and are relegated to the status of toys for the wealthy.
.

But I want one 'cause they are different, unfortunately I'm not wealthy.

Just have to keep the Prius going I suppose.

 

[flecc]

But I want one 'cause they are different, unfortunately I'm not wealthy.

Just have to keep the Prius going I suppose.

Nothing wrong with that Croxden. E-cars aren't much different from the Prius since they mostly use current from dirty fossil fuel power stations. Also their huge batteries use large amounts of limited resources like lithium which isn't recycled later.

I doubt there is very much in it environmentally between both types once the whole cycle of raw materials and manufacture through to decommissioning is assessed.
.

 

[Deleted member 4366]

I think you you all owe me a lot for my bringing about the oil price drop by buying a load of BP shares just before it started. I also caused the black Friday crash and the 2008 crunch by swapping my savings into equities just before each event.

 

[fishingpaul]

Make sure you all keep using your e bikes over the winter,i cant be bothered myself,but you will help keep the cost of petrol down for me.

 

[JamesW]

I think you you all owe me a lot for my bringing about the oil price drop by buying a load of BP shares just before it started. I also caused the black Friday crash and the 2008 crunch by swapping my savings into equities just before each event.

So when are you planning on buying shares in Bosch, Panasonic and Bafang?

 

[JohnCade]

It's also war on the US shale oil and deep sea producers which are already halting plans for exploration and new production at these prices. As to whether there is collaboration at governmental level to hit Russia and Iran and and through them Syria - which is the Saudi's aim since both are Assad supporters - it's uncertain. But the US strategy of being self sufficient in oil again is taking a big knock.

A former Saudi oil minister once said that "the stone age didn't end when the world ran out of stones, and the oil age won't end when we run out of oil." So I wonder if they are a lot cleverer than we give them credit for, and are pumping like there is no tomorrow because for the oil industry there aren't a lot of tomorrows and they know it.

Time for their sovereign wealth fund to get into renewables in a big way perhaps? Now that even big business is taking the probability that much of the remaining reserves will have to be left in the ground very seriously.

 

[Woosh]

Hi all

To bring this into context (a bit) with electric bikes, I am currently writing this from Adelaide, sunny south Australia, where unleaded is just 60p per litre.
There are, I think, a lot of`candidates for e bikes here: over 60s (lots), decidedly chubbies (lots, must be all that lovely ice cold Castlemaine 4X) and judging by the number of clinics, medical centres, walk in X ray and physio outlets, lots of people with dodgy knees and hips.
There are also serious hills here: Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide are sited on substantial slopes, some of which would put the Dales and the Peak District to shame.

I have however only seen 3 electric bikes in the past 5 weeks; one in each city. Is this to do with the price of petrol I wonder, and if so, is it a higher contributing factor than I realised ?

Geebee, over to you perhaps.

Merry Xmas and Happy New Year everyone - from sunny Oz.
(Don't be jealous - I'll be back to the cold in a couple of weeks).

Hatti x

 

[flecc]

I have however only seen 3 electric bikes in the past 5 weeks; one in each city. Is this to do with the price of petrol I wonder, and if so, is it a higher contributing factor than I realised ?

I think it's almost entirely due to the lack of cycling anyway Hatti, a country needs to be a cycling country in the first place for e-bikes to become popular. The Netherlands for example, top cycling country and also top e-bike country with up to 1 in 6 bikes sold being an e-bike. The converse in the UK, with still low levels of cycling and around 1 in 100 bikes sold being e-bikes

Australia has about the lowest cycling rate in the world at about 1% in a chart I've seen, which wasn't helped by them making cycle helmet wearing compulsory. That's an unwise move if wanting people to cycle and why our UK governments have firmly resisted all attempts at similar legislation.

A Merry sunbaked Christmas to you Hatti, enjoy all that warmth while you can.
.

 

[Pete Keeffe]

We've recently moved to an off gas grid area so have oil fired central heating.
Neighbours say this is about the cheapest heating oil has been for a long time.
Downside of course is that jobs might go in the oil industry especially in the more expensive-to-extract areas such as Scotland.

 

[JohnCade]

We've recently moved to an off gas grid area so have oil fired central heating.
Neighbours say this is about the cheapest heating oil has been for a long time.
Downside of course is that jobs might go in the oil industry especially in the more expensive-to-extract areas such as Scotland.

The layoffs have already begun and plans to exploit deeper waters are on hold as in US waters. Most of the newer North Sea fields need a crude price of around $75 a barrel to be worthwhile. It's looking like these prices are going to be here for a year or so...

When we moved to the deepest country over fifteen years ago heating kerosene was 10p a litre for a thousand litres. I think the oil price was around $15 a barrel at the time. With only 5% VAT on it its price is closely connected to the crude price.

 

[awol]

It's funny how this happens in the run up to Christmas which could get people spending and at a time when countries are running out of QE money and economies are maybe not as rosie as they make out.
I too have read that rig workers are facing job uncertainty and OPEC say they will still not cut production.
So I give OPEC a call, told them I will start driving to work and give my ebike a rest. Big sigh of relief and the oil price immediately starts to rise, which should also help d8veh's bp share value. The things I do eh ..
Incidentally, Netherlands being the top cycling country, aren't they also the highest fuel taxed country and Australia 60p a litre I presume the lowest?