Though there's about a decade of experience with small Li-ion cells, there's very little knowledge of the large capacity multi-cell batteries that we use. The first of them are reaching a year old now, and as previously predicted from laboratory testing, many reaching that are showing around 33% capacity loss, just over 35% in one case I know of. In theory in the worst conditions, the loss could reach 66% in a year.
The worst conditions are using the entire charge every time to empty, and both using and storing the battery between uses in high temperature conditions. The best conditions therefore are using the battery for a short distance each use and immediately recharging, together with operating in cool conditions with cool battery storage between uses.
The percentage capacity loss in each year is of the capacity at the start of each year, not the original capacity, so the actual loss reduces over time. Here's a chart showing what 33% annual loss means for a 10 Ah Li-ion battery with range losses as well. Pick the column starting closest to your range when new:
Year - - - Capacity - - - Range 1 - - - Range 2 - - - Range 3
1 - - - - - 10.0 Ah - - - - 30 miles - - - 20 miles - - - 15 miles
2 - - - - - -6.7 Ah. - - - - 20.1 - - - - - 13.4. - - - - 10
3 - - - - - -4.5 Ah. - - - - 13.5. - - - - - 9.0 - - - - - 6.7
4 - - - - - -3.0 Ah - - - - - 9.0. - - - - - 6.0 - - - - - 4.5
5 - - - - - -2.0 Ah - - - - - 6.0. - - - - - 4.0 - - - - - 3
The range can restrict someone's effective battery life, a commuter doing 15 miles each way/charge could barely reach year 3 if starting with a 30 mile range and couldn't complete year 2 if starting with a shorter range, these already born out in practice in some cases.
An overriding factor is the number of charges the battery can take. The concensus is about 500 charges, some claiming 800, so obviously that could limit the length of life. Regardless of the range they achieve, if the bike is used daily for 300 days of the year, the life could again be limited to less than two years before the battery was unfit for further use due to the number of charge cycles.
Another limiting factor is the terrain. In very hilly country with a rider not making sufficient contribution, overload cut-outs can be experienced on bikes using powerful motors, and this gets worse as capacity reduces, therefore limiting the life to the point where the cut-out frequency becomes intolerable.
Additionally, lithium cells start losing life from the moment of manufacture, whether used or not.
All that looks a bit gloomy, but conversely, someone using a bike two or three times a week for short distance shopping or social trips in moderate terrain and charging after each use could use a battery for several years and be very happy indeed with it's life.
Only time will enable us to fully know what to expect with these batteries, and during that period further advances may make that knowledge unnecessary anyway. Meanwhile our best protection is the availability of the highest possible Li-ion capacity at the outset and I'm hoping to see some progress there for our existing bikes.
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