The way I see the EU referendum is to break it down to the core essence of what the EU is. Put everything else aside. Forget trade, forget jobs, forget everything. Focus on what the EU is, where it's heading, and whether that is what British people support and want.
So, what is the EU? It's an attempt at creating a unified European Federal Super-State with a single economy, a single currency, a single legal system, a single military, a single everything eventually. It's intending to replace, or significant reduce, the role of Nation States, in much the same way the United States Federal Government has and does.
That would almost certainly lead to an end to British sovereignty at some point down the line. An end to the right of self-determination for Britain. It would also very likely result in even less political representation than we have at present. The loss of the pound with full economic and monetary union is very likely eventually and the EU will eventually push the UK into this as we get further integrated. That would inevitably mean a very high debt burden for the UK economy as larger, wealthier and positive growth economies like ours, will have to carry debt laden negative or slow growth EU economies. Adopting the Euro and economic unification would almost certainly dramatically damage our financial services sector and put at risk our unique position as the financial capital of the world (which is crucial to our economy, accounting for over 70% of GDP) since we'd be no different to any other EU country and there's far cheaper/nicer countries than UK to do business in. It mean being tied to a high-tax business marketplace for the foreseeable future, leading to a continued lack of competitiveness in the global economy. That would inevitably lead to the slow and steady exodus of small businesses and medium-sized enterprise from the UK to lower-tax countries, with all the talents and skills going with them. It will of course also mean, open borders, and waves of migrants coming into the UK without any quota or points system (i.e no quality-control, anyone is allowed, job or not job, and after 2 years can claim housing, welfare etc). In a country which is already overcrowded and who's infrastructure is already strained to the limits. We would find it very difficult cope with another large influx of migrants on the scale of Poland. However Turkey looms on the horizon and will be the next big wave of migrants heading for the UK, after the 100,000's of refugees first.
Is that really, what British people want for their country? I don't think so. Not people I speak to anyway.
Just to offer a balanced argument, let's ignore all the major downsides of remaining in the EU and let's look at the benefits...
- We get easier access to overseas trade via the EU (although on the EU's terms, and under a high taxation system for imports, than it would be if we did this bi-laterally).
- We get easier access to the Common Market with common standards in industry and laws adopted making trade, the free movement of businesses, companies and peoples easier (The United States, China, and even tiny European countries such as Norway and Sweden seem to manage to do that, without the high cost of membership?)
- We have a louder voice on the international stage on global issues, as a union of many countries and a unified trade bloc (we can support or not support EU on international policy without being a member of it. We also have a closer and unique relationship with the United States than any country in Europe, and we also are head of a Commonwealth of 53 Nations that spans a quarter of the globe, over 2 billion people and is 4 times the size of the EU, if we wanted to flex our muscles internationally).
- We get a single currency with a unified economic policy, monetary system and banking system, hopefully offering economic stability (although past evidence would seem to suggest this benefit is questionable).
Did I miss anything out?