came across this article. Interesting reading
https://cyclingindustry.news/get-ready-for-the-great-e-bike-boom-of-2019/
https://cyclingindustry.news/get-ready-for-the-great-e-bike-boom-of-2019/
get ready??
- Thread starter gray198
- Start date
Interesting read, however I don't think there will be much growth, beyond those already cycling, until we get rid of this inherent "cycling's dangerous" thing.
Segregated infrastructure is required and not just a few lines painted on the road or up the middle of a footway to be used as shared.
Don't worry Nealh when the oceans brim over and society collapses there will be plenty of room to ride our bikes on the motorways. We might have to zig-zag between carcasses of IC vehicles that have run out of fuel though...
In about 20-25yrs then there may be more of a move or infrastructure may move on a bit as the EU bans ICE vehicles, with current cost of EV's most will not be able to afford one.
i agree, i spend a lot of time in amsterdam, we wont have an ebike revolution for the same reasons we did/do not have a bicycle revolution - not just lacking infrastructure, also as part of that because we have a car culture, a bit like america
I agree, the Dutch infrastructure didn't just appear overnight, it;s been growing gradually and is still far from completed. They've always cycled anyway, partly and importantly due to their very flat terrain and also because from 1970 on their government actively discouraged a car love affair from developing.
Here's why we won't have a sudden cycling boom of any kind:
We start from virtually no cycling infrastructure.
Half of the UK is hilly, with often some very steep hills.
Our trend to distant out of town shopping centres, with the roads leading to them either choked with traffic or dangerously fast.
Our Atlantic weather pattern.
Our firmly established car owning culture and car based infrastructure.
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I wouldn't be so sure of that. The Nissan Leaf has reduced in cost in real terms by nearly 40% in a decade, basic model originally £32 k, newest basic model £22k. Then there's the decade of inflation to take into account as well.
And my high end 2018 Leaf cost the same as the top of the range Ford Focus ICE car. Add in my 200 mpg equivalent fuel cost and there's little barrier to buying an e-car. All without adding any other benefits from e-driving, such as no London Congestion Charge, no high pollution zone charge, many free charging points, some councils providing free parking for them.
E-car production is still very small, so there's a consensus that prices will drop much further as high production levels arrive with ICE car bans.
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Not sure what Nissan is playing at with the Leaf 3 e+, £37,600 after the £3,500 government grant and still no proper thermal management on the 62kWh battery.
Top of the range with bells and whistles but still seems very expensive.
It will be a slow burner in the UK, but it will happen.
Bricks and mortar bike shops need to stock just a couple of brands but have lots of models and sizes so customers can buy a bike that fits and fits their needs.
The Government, having threatened to pull the rug from diesel engines which were standard issue with increasingly popular SUV's, are now having cold feet about EV cars and have reduced the subsidy on them before they have really taken off.
Why? TAX. They take a huge hit on fossil fuels but maintaining that on EV's is politically difficult because they don't want to put Granny's electricity bill up with additional fuel duty.
To claw this back they will have to put in a huge amount of infrastructure to operate some sort of road use charging .
VW already have the technology for under asphalt car park charging bays via induction- just like an electric toothbrush and it is possible that in the distant future you will charge your EV via induction as required and whilst driving, on main trunk routes and it will be automatically billed.
Bricks and mortar bike shops need to stock just a couple of brands but have lots of models and sizes so customers can buy a bike that fits and fits their needs.
The Government, having threatened to pull the rug from diesel engines which were standard issue with increasingly popular SUV's, are now having cold feet about EV cars and have reduced the subsidy on them before they have really taken off.
Why? TAX. They take a huge hit on fossil fuels but maintaining that on EV's is politically difficult because they don't want to put Granny's electricity bill up with additional fuel duty.
To claw this back they will have to put in a huge amount of infrastructure to operate some sort of road use charging .
VW already have the technology for under asphalt car park charging bays via induction- just like an electric toothbrush and it is possible that in the distant future you will charge your EV via induction as required and whilst driving, on main trunk routes and it will be automatically billed.
This bugs me as well, if Nissan sold a battery with the leaf with thermal protection and an unconditional 8year warranty like tesla, I'd buy a used one in a flash (too skint to spend k30 plus on a car and money aside would feel a prize twat if I bought a used tesla)
There's a number of things I disagree with him on which I'll mention below, but I agree the price is very high. It appears to me that Nissan are treating this e-plus as a luxury version, taking advantage of the fact that everyone else's e-car is appreciably dearer than the standard 2018 Leaf. Nothing wrong with that, every motor manufacturer has high end versions of their models which never give good value for money, it's just a way of making their companies more profitable.
This has answered a puzzle for me, why the 2018 appeared to be for only one year before a major change for 2019. This makes the 2019 just a lower volume luxury addition, which they are not interested in selling in high volumes at present. It will probably eventually becoming the standard model in a future year when Tesla's smaller battery model 3 arrives.
I strongly disagree with him on the issue of much of the car using the same interior etc. First the old adage, if it ain't broke, why fix it? Second, the Leaf production is small compared with popular ICE models and the e-plus production will be very much smaller, so new untried parts not justified. Third, I prefer the assurance of part standardisation that means spares always available everywhere. Then to his pre-heat App complaint, why bother, I've stopped using the heater timers and have no mobile signal to use an App. Even on the coldest days, I reverse the cold car out of the garage, get out and close the garage door, and when I get back in there's heat already pouring out of the air-con and the steering wheel is already getting warm. Having severe Reynaud's syndrome I suffer terribly from the cold, but I've found this Leaf's warm up immediacy no problem, even for me.
Now the battery thermal management issue which I think has been greatly exaggerated. The old Leaf's battery warming only cut in at -17 degrees C. That's arctic circle conditions and not always even there. The Leaf's markets overall don't suffer anything like that. Then to battery cooling. The fact is the larger the battery for a given job, the less it heats under load. Since the introduction in 2010 the Leaf's battery has almost doubled in capacity, while road speeds everywhere have reduced through congestion and safety measures. It follows that today's 40 kWh battery works far less hard than any previous version so has little need for cooling. The 62 kWh at nearly triple the original battery will need cooling even less, since it will be working at very far below its limits most of the time.
And as I posted in our earlier discussion, I don't think the battery temperature management is the issue in the limitation of number of rapid charges in one journey. I see that as a warranty issue, excess of rapid charging causing too many warranty failures, and the battery rental price scales they originally had illustrate that very clearly.
So basically they limit to one fully rapid charge per journey, meaning 180% maximum total range with one rapid charge en route. For me having reached 160 miles on one charge in Summer, that would be a maximum of 240 miles with an appropriately placed rapid charger en route. For the e-plus on its claimed 226 mile range, a maximum of just over 400 miles.
Looks plenty to me, the minority of regular very long range drivers should just continue with ICE cars of course. Those of us who might do the odd very long run on rare occasions can hire of course.
So in summary, I'm happy with Nissan's decisions, especially since it doesn't mean my 2018 is superceded this year, only supplemented with a very much more expensive luxury version.
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I am all for EV's ,alas I have a few reasons why I don't have one.
I sometimes tow my sailing boat, EV's in my price range currently are not able to tow.
Currently my local council will not allow me to park on my hardstanding, or allow me to have a dropped kerb, so unable to charge at home.
Even range anxiety is an issue, when I drive it's likely to be a long journey,add in the need to tow as well, then EV's become unfeasible.
I could spend out on much more expensive Electric cars , but this becomes illogical, so I am stuck with my 'dirty' diesiel untill something better comes along , if ever?
I sometimes tow my sailing boat, EV's in my price range currently are not able to tow.
Currently my local council will not allow me to park on my hardstanding, or allow me to have a dropped kerb, so unable to charge at home.
Even range anxiety is an issue, when I drive it's likely to be a long journey,add in the need to tow as well, then EV's become unfeasible.
I could spend out on much more expensive Electric cars , but this becomes illogical, so I am stuck with my 'dirty' diesiel untill something better comes along , if ever?
If only you had a plug in facility, a petrol electric plug in hybrid would be the answer. Able to tow, electric drive benefits around town, unlimited range and overall mpg similar to diesel.
Maybe you'll get lamp post car charge points at some future date, we already have 400 of them in London and still increasing.
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Did I hear right? Did he say that it's got a 60Kw charge rate, or is that just the battery capacity?
Where I live several houses are fed from one pole transformer. Turn on a 6oKw charger and the whole neighbourhood's gonna go dim!
Where I live several houses are fed from one pole transformer. Turn on a 6oKw charger and the whole neighbourhood's gonna go dim!
a lot of what you say makes sense and what im about to say is highly idiosyncratic. but with the monthly charge for the battery running cost (especially with depreciation) is much more than a small ice car (say a fiat 500 twin air as i drive). also, i'd be concerned about summer temperatures in the enclosed battery space, given the very high temperature car interiors reach then, which wont do the battery any favours. i gather you use it occasionally, which would make charging at home a reasonable way to do things. i'm fairly disorganised and spend a great deal of time rapid charging my laptop for example in cafes (with a 10w usb) because i simply dont get around to systematically doing so at home. in this sense something like a four year old tesla could plug in haphazardly into fast chargers to tide me from one 150 mile trip to the next would be invaluable and arriving at a discharged car i forgot to plug in the night before quite a deal killer
Not so much idiosyncratic as expressing that you are not a potential e-car driver with present technology. Most of us are though, and don't forget half of all car drivers now are female, and their average annual mileage is only a little over 5000 miles. That's less than a charge a week!
Your battery temperature fear is without any foundation. The traction batteries aren't in the cars, they are bolted underneath in the airstream below, so are cooled by airflow while driving and protected from direct sunlight when stationary. In any case 25 to 35 degrees is the optimum operating temperature range for lithium batteries, so no problem in our climate.
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The Nissan and Tesla ones aren't taken out of use. When they reach the end of operating life down to 70% capacity, they are used in the home storage units that many are installing. In other words they store the charge from rooftop solar panels for later use or return to the grid. No doubt that will happen with others as they become widespread.
One day they'll reach a final end, but there will be recycling by then.
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