E-bike evolution and future predictions

[morphix]

I know some of you on this forum have been involved with e-bikes from the early days and have probably seen a lot of innovations and improvements over the years...

I'm curious to know...where are e-bikes at the moment in terms of technology, are they reaching their pinnacle or is there still a long way to go? If they still have a way to go, does anyone feel brave enough to make any future predictions and timescale?

It seems that the single biggest factor is battery technology which has come on in leaps and bounds in recent years with new Lithium-Ion batteries getting smaller and more powerful. This is still the highest cost component on many bikes from what I understand. Is it likely the cost of these batteries will become considerably cheaper, as and when the market expands?

How likely is it that the prices we are seeing today of £1.5k-£2k for decent bikes, could begin falling dramatically in a few years? Or do you guys think it will be like cars, and e-bikes will hold their value or even get more expense as they become increasingly more advanced?

I will start the ball rolling on future predictions.. one possible innovation that may come is a controller with a computer interface, so that it's possible to plug in your laptop and finely control the power modes and performance, and also get data out, upload stuff etc.

 

[NRG]

I don't see battery prices coming down any time soon due to the 'supply crunch' on rare earth metals which Lithium is part of AFAIK.

As for controller programming that's been available for a few years now albeit in limited form. Some of the settings such as speed and power can be controlled to a degree but things are still somewhat crude with the majority of the controllers available from China.

 

[ronipozn]

The best battery - Li Polymer Battery offers energy density of 0.6 MJ/Kg (Mega Joule).

Gasoline on the other hand offers 43 MJ/Kg.

Motor efficiencies are much higher then internal combustion engine.

But, if we would multiply the two efficiencies together, the gasoline will win in the energy density by far.

We will need a lot of new discoveries to get closer to the 43 MJ/Kg.

On the other hand, it is maybe not that important. Almost nobody need to ride for 400Kg without stoping.

Also, maybe solar energy will be much more efficient some day and would be a viable power source for e-bikes batteries.

As for the "smart" controllers, there are a couple of high quality e-bies brands that includes this kind of stuff. Even smart phone integration is available.
But most of the e-bikes don't have it yet.

 

[morphix]

That's an interesting thought Roni about the solar power... if it does become a lot more efficient in theory that could extend the range of e-bikes indefinitely, while also reducing Co2 even further than present low levels on e-bikes.

 

[Deleted member 4366]

In about 1994 I had a discussion with a Doctor (of science who was involved in research at Kodak. She told me that digital cameras would never take over from film-type cameras. I can also remember someone saying that pc processors would never go over 2ghz. As far as I can see, technology is always marching forward without stopping. Who knows the future?
Anyway, where did you get the idea that decent electric bikes cost >£1.5k. My Sunlova cost £520. It seems to go faster than others; My unfit 100kg can do 35 miles over hilly terrain; It seems to be well made with good quality parts; I find it difficult to believe that more expensive bikes can give you more. I love it to bits.

 

[Blew it]

....digital cameras would never take over from film-type cameras..

Digital cameras, good as they are in terms of economy in use, can never match the 'point and shoot' capability of a 35mm compact. Typically set at f/16, 1/120th shutter speed and focus on infinity, just take the camera out of your pocket and press the button. Advance the film and it's ready for the next opportunity that pops up.

Typical digital: Switch on and wait for boot-up, wishes me "hello", plays a little tune and then "replace batteries". By which time the little Muntjac galloping along in front of my bike is over the hedge and away.

All the best
Bob ( snapper)

 

[Mike63]

Advance the film and it's ready for the next opportunity that pops up.

....try taking a shot of a golden eagle in flight with your little point and shoot

.....Mike

 

[flecc]

Typical digital: Switch on and wait for boot-up, wishes me "hello", plays a little tune and then "replace batteries". By which time the little Muntjac galloping along in front of my bike is over the hedge and away.

All the best
Bob ( snapper)

While mostly true Bob, not invariably. My Casio F1 allows precaptured shooting at 60 full resolution frames per second, constantly updated. Then I can select what I want as in the garden shot of a jay below (Winter, very poor light):

 

[flecc]

And this parakeet:

 

[Scimitar]

Real men shoot plates
Curiously, the desire for and acquisition of digital SLRs had me buying up many of the lenses of the past I'd always wanted, but at a fraction of the original cost. 'Twas but a small step from there to a minor collection of German 9x12 folders, culminating in a pre-war Linhof. They just don't make 'em like that any more.

 

[flecc]

Agreed Dave, I have also used plate cameras when I was in the photographic trade at one time, nothing to beat them for sheer quality, but not too good for action shots!

I have a neighbour Andrew who keeps buying historic stuff and exclusively uses film and plate. He is beginning to soften on the digital subject now though, as their capabilities increase by leaps and bounds. It will be a long time before they really match plate and film for quality though.
.

 

[weirdfish]

Liking the shot of the very rare X-wing Parrot

The theory of cosmic irony would have us believe that in a parallel universe there is a digital SLR forum discussing eBikes

 

[flecc]

The theory of cosmic irony would have us believe that in a parallel universe there is a digital SLR forum discussing eBikes

Maybe an e-bike is a photographic accessory, taking the camera and photographer to subjects like the many interesting and spectacular places shown in trip photos in this site.

If so, that digital SLR forum can logically be in our universe.
.