BREXIT the silver lining or lead cosh?

[Wisper Bikes]

From the BAGB today.

The UK will now almost certainly leave the EU on 31st Jan 2020, but there'll be no change in trading processes or tariff rates until 31st Dec 2020. After that, a trade deal, 'no deal' exit or an extension of the transition period are all still possible.

Even if a 'deal' is agreed, the UK Government's stated intention is that the UK will leave the EU Customs Union, so under either 'deal' or 'no deal' the current anti-dumping measures would cease to apply to imports to the UK after end December 2020.

All the best, David

 

[flecc]

From the BAGB today.

The UK will now almost certainly leave the EU on 31st Jan 2020, but there'll be no change in trading processes or tariff rates until 31st Dec 2020. After that, a trade deal, 'no deal' exit or an extension of the transition period are all still possible.

Even if a 'deal' is agreed, the UK Government's stated intention is that the UK will leave the EU Customs Union, so under either 'deal' or 'no deal' the current anti-dumping measures would cease to apply to imports to the UK after end December 2020.

All the best, David

Hush David!

You'll kill Chinese e-bike sales before January 2021!
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[Wisper Bikes]

Are there any now Tony?

 

[Wisper Bikes]

Exporting to Europe will be fun! I wonder what it will be like exporting from Europe to UK? We start our Portuguese production in February so either way it will be an interesting time!

I suppose there will be a price hike on European bikes and a price drop on bikes coming from China making Chinese production very interesting again. Such fun!!

 

[vfr400]

Maybe you can persuade the government to put luxury tax on all the Kalkhoff, Bosch and Brose bikes , just to teach them a lesson. Revenge is sweet. Every dog has his day.

 

[Wisper Bikes]

Just a thought.... now we will be considering bringing bikes in from China again for the UK anyway, but will continue to build in Portugal for Europe. Rather than deal locally with our nearest trading bock are we as a nation going to be pushed into sending ship loads of cargo to and from the US and Asia?

 

[Woosh]

Most companies surviving anti-dumping will have switched their assembly to the EU since last year, so I don't expect any change anytime soon.
The government's stated objective is to have at least some sort of deal by the end of 2020. EU bikes presumably won't have to pay UK import tariff, Chinese bikes will remain more taxed than EU bikes.
Had we left the EU back in last October without a deal then it is conceivable that Chinese bikes would be cheaper.
I assemble my bikes in Southend so nothing will change for me until 2021 at the earliest. If anti dumping is removed, then I would go back to buy ready built but still have no hope of selling my bikes to France/Spain/Portugal simply because of the content rule.

 

[Wisper Bikes]

Most companies surviving anti-dumping will have switched their assembly to the EU since last year, so I don't expect any change anytime soon.
The government's stated objective is to have at least some sort of deal by the end of 2020. EU bikes presumably won't have to pay UK import tariff, Chinese bikes will remain more taxed than EU bikes.
Had we left the EU back in last October without a deal then it is conceivable that Chinese bikes would be cheaper.
I assemble my bikes in Southend so nothing will change for me until 2021 at the earliest. If anti dumping is removed, then I would go back to buy ready built but still have no hope of selling my bikes to France/Spain/Portugal simply because of the content rule.

The content rule hasn’t changed in Europe for those holding a licence. If a company is building less than 299 bikes a month they don’t even need a licence. I’m not sure if one is necessary in the UK. I assume we have the same rules.

 

[Deleted member 25121]

Even if a 'deal' is agreed, the UK Government's stated intention is that the UK will leave the EU Customs Union, so under either 'deal' or 'no deal' the current anti-dumping measures would cease to apply to imports to the UK after end December 2020.

But is the plan to drop current anti-dumping measures, wouldn't that require a change to our laws and be unsupportive of UK manufacturing?
It would open the floodgates to cheap imports from the Far East and would hardly be conducive to rebuilding our manufacturing base.

 

[Woosh]

Like with any big event, there will be winners and losers.
brexit will upset the apple cart for those working on the supply side, however imports are supposed to be cheaper.
I don't know anyone is paying anti-dumping duty and survive, so the result may not be so drastic.

 

[Wisper Bikes]

But is the plan to drop current anti-dumping measures, wouldn't that require a change to our laws and be unsupportive of UK manufacturing?
It would open the floodgates to cheap imports from the Far East and would hardly be conducive to rebuilding our manufacturing base.

The change to our current laws will happen anyway when we leave the EU, Anti Dumping Tariffs aren't based in UK law they are European.

I agree this will herald the return of cheap bikes from China.

 

[Deleted member 25121]

The change to our current laws will happen anyway when we leave the EU, Anti Dumping Tariffs aren't based in UK law they are European.

I agree this will herald the return of cheap bikes from China.

It's my understanding that the current EU related laws will continue until they are incorporated into UK laws.

With the government election promises to help poorer areas of the country with support for jobs, infrastructure, manufacturing etc etc I'd be surprised if import tariffs from the Far East are changed significantly, they'll want to preserve and create jobs in the UK rather than encourage even more imports.

I don't think we'll see the imminent return of cheap bikes from China. Sorry.

 

[vfr400]

I don't think we'll see the imminent return of cheap bikes from China. Sorry.

What about when the pound becomes stronger?

 

[Wisper Bikes]

What about when the pound becomes stronger?

If the pound gets stronger imports will become even cheaper. Obvious I know!

 

[Wisper Bikes]

It's my understanding that the current EU related laws will continue until they are incorporated into UK laws.

With the government election promises to help poorer areas of the country with support for jobs, infrastructure, manufacturing etc etc I'd be surprised if import tariffs from the Far East are changed significantly, they'll want to preserve and create jobs in the UK rather than encourage even more imports.

I don't think we'll see the imminent return of cheap bikes from China. Sorry.

I hope that you are right. However according to the Bicycle Association of Great Britain the Government currently are taking the stance that Tariffs will be dropped.

On the upside if we are as a country are able to buy cheaper eBikes in future surely this is a good thing?

 

[Deleted member 25121]

On the upside if we are as a country are able to buy cheaper eBikes in future surely this is a good thing?

Not necessarily if it means the loss of jobs in the UK, for example the employees at Woosh who assemble ebikes in the UK.
Also our Prime Minister and his advisors seem to be taking a lot of guidance from Trump who is very keen to impose tariffs on Far Eastern goods ......

 

[Deleted member 25121]

What about when the pound becomes stronger?

It's predicted to fall post Brexit.

 

[vfr400]

Not necessarily if it means the loss of jobs in the UK, for example the employees at Woosh who assemble ebikes in the UK.
Also our Prime Minister and his advisors seem to be taking a lot of guidance from Trump who is very keen to impose tariffs on Far Eastern goods ......

I was thinking that too. I've got a feeling that Boris will start copying Trump. Our economy will boom, but ebikes might become more expensive. Maybe more people will then make them in the UK, which makes more jobs and potentially more profit.

I'm alright Jack because I have a shedload of batteries, controllers and motors to last me a lifetime whatever happens - unless they make self-made electric bikes illegal, then I'll be sick.

 

[Woosh]

The content rule hasn’t changed in Europe for those holding a licence. If a company is building less than 299 bikes a month they don’t even need a licence. I’m not sure if one is necessary in the UK. I assume we have the same rules.

if the UK removes anti-dumping duty on Chinese bikes, I think export of e-bikes from UK will need certificate of origin from 2021.

 

[flecc]

unless they make self-made electric bikes illegal, then I'll be sick.

They'll be far too busy for years on the trade agreements to bother with such minor matters and in any case, the DfT have always used grandfather rights for things that were previously legal.

Just look at the way car drivers who passed their car test before 1st February 2001 can ride 50cc mopeds without any other test or CBT.
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