Brexit, for once some facts.

[wheeler]

I wonder how long it will be before the blonde bawbag tries to get a world beating trade deal with the Taliban.
I believe Afghanistan is quite strong in pharmaceuticals and I'm sure we could do a good deal on blue cloth for burkas.

 

[Jesus H Christ]

Precisely why I posted with Covid continuing to puzzle, it is different and nothing to do with holidays. On the vaccination stats one would expect us to be in a worse position in Croydon, especially given our record of being the worst affected in the whole of the UK in the opening couple of months of the pandemic in 2020:

Percentage with single dose: UK 90%, All London 81%, London Borough of Croydon 67%.

Percentage with both doses: UK 77%, All London 66%, London Borough of Croydon 56%.

Why the vaccine takeup in Croydon is so low I don't know, there's no shortage of facilities or opportunities and they've been well organised and easily accessed for everyone.

The puzzling bit is that we aren't suffering any consequence, often quite the opposite such as our current infection rate of half the national figure: Croydon 148 per 100k, National 294. And our death rate is low.

The adjacent also large borough of Lambeth isn't doing well at all, with their infection rate at 346 per 100k and testing positivity at 7.5%, suggesting a high transmission rate which we aren't suffering. Observation suggests a high level of masking in shops compliance in Croydon, though nowhere else, but I've no idea what that is in Lambeth. Although adjoining, there isn't as much intercommunication as proximity might suggest, our public transport largely not shared for logistical reasons.
.

If the population of Croydon has a large number of people who won’t take up the vaccine, perhaps that same stupidity spills over into testing. Maybe a lot of people in Croydon who have COVID are never tested, don’t make the daily stats and hence the figures look good?

 

[jonathan.agnew]

If the population of Croydon has a large number of people who won’t take up the vaccine, perhaps that same stupidity spills over into testing. Maybe a lot of people in Croydon who have COVID are never tested, don’t make the daily stats and hence the figures look good?
[/QUOTE]
Interesting, I thought the polyanna consensus on the thread was that the virus was nothing more than a bad case of flu we could managed with a little social distancing. that deaths had been greatly exaggerated. And that the Taliban and west would from now on leave each other alone. That the worlds a lovely place and were all super grateful to the government. That everything was just rosy in the rosy boris rose garden.

 

[flecc]

If the population of Croydon has a large number of people who won’t take up the vaccine, perhaps that same stupidity spills over into testing. Maybe a lot of people in Croydon who have COVID are never tested, don’t make the daily stats and hence the figures look good?

Nice try, but as I've pointed our before, our Covid deaths are very low too and lack of testing doesn't reduce deaths.

If your supposition was right, we'd be suffering similar higher death rates as the worst hit areas in that respect.

As I posted but you apparaently didn't read:

"And to show that's not just lack of testing , our deaths within 28 day of a positive test remain low too"
.

 

[flecc]

Interesting, I thought the polyanna consensus on the thread was that the virus was nothing more than a bad case of flu we could managed with a little social distancing. that deaths had been greatly exaggerated. And that the Taliban and west would from now on leave each other alone. That the worlds a lovely place and were all super grateful to the government. That everything was just rosy in the rosy boris rose garden.

Once again showing you have the most closed mind in this thread.
.

 

[Woosh]

Read between the lines, is it really true that 'flu is now magically at zero cases nationally as claimed, or is much of "Covid" really just the more severe 'flu cases? They aren't dying of it very often are they, rather like 'flu?

I don't think that our doctors are that stupid, not being able to differentiate between flu and covid.
Flu kills indirectly by aggravating co-infections which are themselves often caused by streps.
Covid kills mostly by causing directly severe chest infections. You only have to look at the x-rays to see the difference.

 

[Danidl]

Nice try, but as I've pointed our before, our Covid deaths are very low too and lack of testing doesn't reduce deaths.

If your supposition was right, we'd be suffering similar higher death rates as the worst hit areas in that respect.

As I posted but you apparaently didn't read:

"And to show that's not just lack of testing , our deaths within 28 day of a positive test remain low too"
.

Nice... But to die within 28 days of a positive test,, you must first have a positive test. Anyway the 28 day rule was bunkum by May 2020,whatever sense it made in March and April 2020.
I really suspect some Holiday effect at play

 

[flecc]

Nice... But to die within 28 days of a positive test,, you must first have a positive test. Anyway the 28 day rule was bunkum by May 2020,whatever sense it made in March and April 2020.
I really suspect some Holiday effect at play

That's a ridiculous proposition, the Borough of Croydon alone on holiday. Anyway this discrepancy has lasted several weeks, beyond any holiday periods and most holidays were banned for much of that time.

There's a whole lot more to Covid than the simple, hence the experts so often getting it wrong, Spiegelhalter the last to do so and now quiet, probably hoping no-one noticed just how very wrong he was.
.

 

[flecc]

I don't think that our doctors are that stupid, not being able to differentiate between flu and covid.
Flu kills indirectly by aggravating co-infections which are themselves often caused by streps.
Covid kills mostly by causing directly severe chest infections. You only have to look at the x-rays to see the difference.

I'm not speaking of deaths, which are low anyway thanks in part to the vaccines, but of the claimed Covid infections, so many of which are symptomless or almost entirely so.

As pandemics go this one is a rather poor performer, over 97% of us failing to contract it and the few who do mostly suffering little or no symptoms. Not exactly the black death is it, or even Spanish 'flu?

On this occasion the government has got it right, get things back to normal as far as possible but with some sensible voluntary personal precautions. Just a pity they didn't use that approach from the start. And their experts, Whitty, Van Dam and Spiegelhalter who forecast this policy would result in immediate disaster have been completely wrong. Instead of infections rising from the high of 50,000 a day as they forecast, they halved in just a week and have stayed stubbornly below 30k/day since.

With the continuing and probably expanding vaccination program I believe Covid will stay under control at tolerable levels while we continue to look for more effective long term vaccines.
.

 

[jonathan.agnew]

Once again showing you have the most closed mind in this thread.
.

Well, to stretch a metaphor. Sticks and stones (and the gradually increasing number of covid admissions nationally; and a Taliban that brutally hijack a country while explicitly dismissing democracy or negotiation) may break ones bones, but your insults (much like your support for the taliban or minimising of covid), for my questioning the happy consensus, does not feel much of a threat.

 

[flecc]

Well, to stretch a metaphor. Sticks and stones (and the gradually increasing number of covid admissions nationally; and a Taliban that brutally hijack a country while explicitly dismissing democracy or negotiation) may break ones bones, but your insults (much like your support for the taliban or minimising of covid), for my questioning the happy consensus, does not feel much of a threat.

You couldn't be more wrong if you tried:

gradually increasing number of covid admissions nationally: Yes, very gradually, not the huge increases forecast by the experts, an opinion you shared.

Taliban that brutally hijack a country while explicitly dismissing democracy or negotiation: They did not hijack a country, they were still the legal government, illegally under international law expelled by NATO forces who enforced another government. One which by universal agreement has been utterly corrupt and incompetent. And the Taliban did not dismiss negotiation, they negotiated an agreement with the USA for the USA to withdraw in exchange for a different future rapprochement which both are currently honouring. Nor have they explicitly dismissed democracy since they are internally a democratic government, being an alliance of the two most fractious forms of Islam, Sunni and Shia. The bitter split between the two goes back some 14 centuries. For those two to have worked together for 20 years is a more effective democracy than anything we've achieved.

my questioning the happy consensus: There is no happy consensus in this thread, that only exists in your distorted imagination. One in that anything in the slightest optimistic is completely wrong.
.

 

[Woosh]

And their experts, Whitty, Van Dam and Spiegelhalter who forecast this policy would result in immediate disaster have been completely wrong. Instead of infections rising from the high of 50,000 a day as they forecast, they halved in just a week and have stayed stubbornly below 30k/day since.

The situation this summer is different from last year because of vaccination. However, new variants can still cause a lot of uncertainty whether the NHS can cope this winter.
The key consideration is the number of deaths vs number of new hospital admissions. At the moment, about 100 die out of 800 admissions, 12.5%. Not many treatable diseases kill that high percentage of patients.
Same week last year, the number of covid hospital admissions was around 100 a day.
Compared to flu, less than 100 admissions a day and no death.
I guess we'll see a new variant next month when unvaccinated children go back to school.
Compare flu against covid in hospital admissions:
The dark plot is covid, light blue plot is flu.

 

[flecc]

The key consideration is the number of deaths vs number of new hospital admissions. At the moment, about 100 die out of 800 admissions, 12.5%. Not many treatable diseases kill that high percentage of patients.

But as a number of those it's claimed are catching Covid, the death percentage is extremely low. The other relevant factors are the age of the victims and their underlying conditions. When those are considered I'd bet there are many diseases with similar outcomes for the elderly and vulnerable.

Same week last year, the number of covid hospital admissions was around 100 a day.
Compared to flu, less than 100 admissions a day and no death.

I'm already fully aware of the 'flu siutuation here, it was me who raised this subject in comparison with Covid. We know that the Covid vaccines are somewhat protective against 'flu so the low rate of the latter is not a complete surprise.

I guess we'll see a new variant next month when unvaccinated children go back to school.

There you go again, as in the first item above you search for any possibility of a negative. It's why you get it wrong as in your forecast of rising infections reaching 60k/Day by September. That's just 13 days away and since your forecast we have reduced to under half that.

Try the optimism I've shown throughout and you'll get it right as much as I do. As when I said last year that our local early very high infection rate would pay off later. It did. As when I said in this July that infections would reduce, and they've halved. As when I've said throughout that the Swedish voluntary policy would outclass ours, as it's done by a huge margin. As when I've forecast that infections will not reach anything like 200k/Day by Christmas as experts forecast, watch that happen.
.

 

[Woosh]

Try the optimism I've shown throughout and you'll get it right as much as I do. As when I said last year that our local early very high infection rate would pay off later. It did. As when I said in this July that infections would reduce, and they've halved. As when I've said throughout that the Swedish voluntary policy would outclass ours, as it's done by a huge margin. As when I've forecast that infections will not reach anything like 200k/Day by Christmas as experts forecast, watch that happen.

You do have a cool head in general but not on covid.
Do you realise that we are in worse situation than at the same time last year, despite vaccinations?
Then, there were 100 people admitted to hospital and 12 deaths in a day, now, it's 800 admissions and 100 deaths! The virus kills about the same percentage, the difference in numbers is due to the much higher infectivity of the delta variant.
Any new strain displacing the delta variant will by implied logic, have even higher infectivity than the delta variant. I just keep my fingers crossed that the vaccines protect us against the worst case scenario.
People are just getting used to hearing bad news about covid.
When the weather turns colder, as it will, covid will get worse. Even without a new variant, the cold weather will bring back 30,000 more cases a day by October.

 

[flecc]

The virus kills about the same percentage, the difference in numbers is due to the much higher infectivity of the delta variant.

Agreed, but nothing says that will necessarily stay the same. The increasing number vaccinated and a likely wider spread of vaccination could well mean improvement. That's my way, looking at and balancing both the negatives and the positives and always remembering what we've survived over the last 4 million years, ending with 7.5 billions of us. We'll sail though this minor hiccup and won't even be able to reduce that 7.5 billions.

When the weather turns colder, as it will, covid will get worse. Even without a new variant, the cold weather will bring back 30,000 more cases a day by October.

We'll see. That's your prediction of 60k/Day again, just one month later. I'll look forward to you telling me it again next month, but by November!
.

 

[oyster]

Seems Turkeys did vote for Christmas.

Claims that it is likely there will be a shortage this Christmas. Same brexit issues as Nando's chicken supply issues.

 

[oldgroaner]

Seems Turkeys did vote for Christmas.

Claims that it is likely there will be a shortage this Christmas. Same brexit issues as Nando's chicken supply issues.

Hang on a minute, but surely from a turkey's point of view, not being on the menu is a vote against Christmas?

 

[oyster]

Hang on a minute, but surely from a turkey's point of view, not being on the menu is a vote against Christmas?

I did appreciate the logic inversions implicit in the comment.

 

[oldgroaner]

I appear to have slipped through the lookin glass today

What is this doing in the Torygraph?

How Britain's pensioners are being left behind other countries The state pension does not even cover a minimum standard of living, experts warn

 

[oyster]

I appear to have slipped through the lookin glass today

What is this doing in the Torygraph?

How Britain's pensioners are being left behind other countries The state pension does not even cover a minimum standard of living, experts warn

I wonder what are the mean and modal ages of torygraph readers?