Brexit, for once some facts.

Barry Shittpeas

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jan 1, 2020
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Can’t see how shutting the boozer at 10:00pm is going to turn the coronavirus tide. Frequent spot checks and closing the boozer for a month if any bad practice is found would be a better option.
 
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Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
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they have given up on test and trace. Vaccines are no longer ready this year.
BJ wants to be seen taking action on Covid, not that he has a solution.
In a few weeks, hospitals will be full of Covid patients. What will the government do then?
 

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,461
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they have given up on test and trace. Vaccines are no longer ready this year.
BJ wants to be seen taking action on Covid, not that he has a solution.
In a few weeks, hospitals will be full of Covid patients. What will the government do then?
Fiddle the figures and lie of course.
 
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Wicky

Esteemed Pedelecer
Feb 12, 2014
2,823
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www.jhepburn.co.uk
they have given up on test and trace. Vaccines are no longer ready this year.
BJ wants to be seen taking action on Covid, not that he has a solution.
In a few weeks, hospitals will be full of Covid patients. What will the government do then?
Lockdown Lite

In a shift from recent messaging to try to get workers back into their offices and workplaces, Mr Gove said: "If you can work from home, do."

Surprised from track and trace they haven't worked out the main vectors i.e. workplace, holiday/socialising, home, school /college , commuting - or possibly they have and as its across all the age ranges particulary the young* just doing normal things (govt encouraged eating out, back to work and school) where a degree of intermingling stuff in general occurs.

*Younger age groups have seen the greatest increase in infection rates, particularly those aged 2 to 11, 17 to 24 and 25 to 34 years.

We estimate that the number of new cases of COVID-19 has also increased across the community population as a whole.

These figures do not include people staying in hospitals, care homes or other institutional settings.

 
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Wicky

Esteemed Pedelecer
Feb 12, 2014
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Concerning that almost half of new cases are in care homes - quite what difference the 10pm pub curfew will make...

Public Health England data reveals that of the 729 outbreaks in the week to September 13, only five per cent occurred in food outlets such as restaurants and pubs - 45 per cent were in care homes, 21 per cent in schools and 18 per cent in places of work.

729 new ARI (Acute Respiratory Infections) incidents have been reported in week 37 (Figure 19):
• 313 incidents were from care homes where 228 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2
• 18 incidents were from hospitals where 13 had at least one linked case that tested posi- tive for SARS-CoV-2
• 193 incidents were from educational settings where 110 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2
• 4 incidents were from prisons where 3 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2
• 110 incidents were from workplace settings where 92 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2
• 34 incidents were from food outlet/restaurant settings where 25 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2
• 57 incidents were from the other settings category where 39 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2

 
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oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,461
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80
.
Concerning that almost half of new cases are in care homes - quite what difference the 10pm pub curfew will make...

Public Health England data reveals that of the 729 outbreaks in the week to September 13, only five per cent occurred in food outlets such as restaurants and pubs - 45 per cent were in care homes, 21 per cent in schools and 18 per cent in places of work.

729 new ARI (Acute Respiratory Infections) incidents have been reported in week 37 (Figure 19):
• 313 incidents were from care homes where 228 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2
• 18 incidents were from hospitals where 13 had at least one linked case that tested posi- tive for SARS-CoV-2
• 193 incidents were from educational settings where 110 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2
• 4 incidents were from prisons where 3 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2
• 110 incidents were from workplace settings where 92 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2
• 34 incidents were from food outlet/restaurant settings where 25 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2
• 57 incidents were from the other settings category where 39 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2

The safest place is clearly Jail! :cool:
 
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oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,461
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Just received a scam call purporting to be from Customs and Excise threatening me with an arrest warrant if I don't ring "1" to speak to a case worker.
My response was I don't believe a word of this but...
Thank you for leaving your number which is
01223 240193 (Cambridge, England)

Damn considerate that!:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:
 
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Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
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Concerning that almost half of new cases are in care homes - quite what difference the 10pm pub curfew will make...

Public Health England data reveals that of the 729 outbreaks in the week to September 13, only five per cent occurred in food outlets such as restaurants and pubs - 45 per cent were in care homes, 21 per cent in schools and 18 per cent in places of work.

729 new ARI (Acute Respiratory Infections) incidents have been reported in week 37 (Figure 19):
• 313 incidents were from care homes where 228 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2
• 18 incidents were from hospitals where 13 had at least one linked case that tested posi- tive for SARS-CoV-2
• 193 incidents were from educational settings where 110 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2
• 4 incidents were from prisons where 3 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2
• 110 incidents were from workplace settings where 92 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2
• 34 incidents were from food outlet/restaurant settings where 25 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2
• 57 incidents were from the other settings category where 39 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2

The assumption that Pubs and Restaurants are not vectors is highly erroneous. Basically the test and trace never goes back far enough. Once a case is identified as positive, they immediately go back the 3 days to find out who that person has contacted after becoming infective. But they don't go back the full week or 10 days to where they got it.
 
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Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
20,376
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wooshbikes.co.uk
Even if 50,000 people get infected per day, it will take about 3 years to achieve herd immunity. The UK economy can't support that much destruction.
I think we should follow Sweden.
 
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Barry Shittpeas

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jan 1, 2020
2,325
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Beer king, Timothy Randall Martin (owner of Wetherspoons pub empire) is saying that he has a greater understanding of disease transmission than people who have dedicated their lives to the subject. Randall, speaking from luxurious isolation, is saying closing the boozer will achieve nothing. It’s not like he’s biased or stands to gain anything is it.
 

Wicky

Esteemed Pedelecer
Feb 12, 2014
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Colchester, Essex
www.jhepburn.co.uk
The assumption that Pubs and Restaurants are not vectors is highly erroneous. Basically the test and trace never goes back far enough. Once a case is identified as positive, they immediately go back the 3 days to find out who that person has contacted after becoming infective. But they don't go back the full week or 10 days to where they got it.
"Contact must have taken place within a nine-day period, starting 48 hours before symptoms appeared."


and

"if you have had any close contact with anyone other than members of your household. We are interested in in the 48 hours before you developed symptoms and the time since you developed symptoms. "


Point taken that earlier one goes back the more tangled & complex tracking back becomes
 

oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
10,422
14,609
West West Wales
Even if 50,000 people get infected per day, it will take about 3 years to achieve herd immunity. The UK economy can't support that much destruction.
I think we should follow Sweden.
Then throw in the joker - a vaccine of uncertain efficacy. (Even if it were perfectly safe.)
 

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,461
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About Sweden
"
Over the course of the pandemic Sweden still has had fewer deaths per capita than the United Kingdom, Spain, Italy, Belgium and France, which have all opted for lockdowns, but much higher than Nordic neighbours Denmark, Norway and Finland.

Sweden’s strategy, mostly based on voluntary measures regarding social distancing and basic hygiene, has been criticised by some as a dangerous experiment with peoples lives but also been put forward as a future model by the WHO.


Sweden’s open strategy seems to have softened the blow on the economy, with growth shrinking much less than in Denmark and Norway in the first quarter."

But we must remember the Swedes don't have Brexit voters do they?
And by any standard the behaviour of our population simply doesn't lend itself to anything "Voluntary"

With the notable exceptions of Chaos and Pandemonium
 
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,200
30,603
Even if 50,000 people get infected per day, it will take about 3 years to achieve herd immunity. The UK economy can't support that much destruction.
I think we should follow Sweden.
£xactly what I said two months ago. Follow Sweden, take the hit, get it over with.

It's what we did inadvertantly in London and it's not us taking the major increase in infections now and new lockdown measures.
.
 
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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30,603
*Younger age groups have seen the greatest increase in infection rates, particularly those aged 2 to 11, 17 to 24 and 25 to 34 years.
Public Health England data reveals that of the 729 outbreaks in the week to September 13, - 45 per cent were in care homes, 21 per cent in schools and 18 per cent in places of work.
I never knew we had so many 2 to 34 year olds in Care Homes.
.
 
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Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
8,611
12,256
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Beer king, Timothy Randall Martin (owner of Wetherspoons pub empire) is saying that he has a greater understanding of disease transmission than people who have dedicated their lives to the subject. Randall, speaking from luxurious isolation, is saying closing the boozer will achieve nothing. It’s not like he’s biased or stands to gain anything is it.
Heaven forbid!. And it has.
 

Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
20,376
16,875
Southend on Sea
wooshbikes.co.uk
But we must remember the Swedes don't have Brexit voters do they?
And by any standard the behaviour of our population simply doesn't lend itself to anything "Voluntary"
agreed.
also half of Swedes live alone.
 
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Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
8,611
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£xactly what I said two months ago. Follow Sweden, take the hit, get it over with.

It's what we did inadvertantly in London and it's not us taking the major increase in infections now and new lockdown measures.
.
The situations are utterly different. The UK average population density is 10 times that of Sweden. The UK urban population in London and Bermingham is 6 times the urban populations in Swedish cities . Swedes are less touchy feely than even Londoners. , Let alone Geordies . And of course unlike Italy ,France,Spain ,but like the UK, it did have more warning.
 

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